当地时间12月12日（周五），美股三大股指走势分化，道指创下历史新高。截至发稿，道指涨0.24%，标普500指数跌0.08%，纳指跌0.3%。 | 口 △ 田 (0) | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 48819.15 | +0.24% | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6895.48 | -0.08% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 23523.63 | -0.30% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | | | | | 7831.94 | +0.75% | 消息面上，周五，多位美联储官员发声。美联储施密德表示，劳动力市场正在降温，但仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头，希望保持货币 政策适度限制性。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定关税对通胀的影响是否只是暂时的。就2026年降息 幅度预期而言，降息次数将多于中值预测。 美国克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，美联储在获得新数据后将拥有更好的可见度。"我倾向于采取略微更具限 ...

北京时间12月12日晚，美股周五早盘走势分化。道指再创盘中新高，纳指与标普500指数走低。市场关 注板块轮动迹象。美联储鲍尔森称有进一步降息的空间。美联储施密德解释本周反对降息25基点是因为 通胀"过高"。 道指涨103.31点，涨幅为0.21%，报48807.32点；纳指跌117.83点，跌幅为0.50%，报23476.03点；标普 500指数跌19.17点，跌幅为0.28%，报6881.83点。 周五早盘，道指最高上涨至48886.86点，创盘中历史新高。 芯片制造商博通（Broadcom）股价大跌，尽管其第四季度业绩超出预期，并对本季度给出了强劲的预 测，称人工智能芯片销售额有望翻倍。 运动服饰零售商露露乐檬（Lululemon）股价跳涨，此前该公司宣布其首席执行官将于1月底卸任。该股 今年表现不佳，年初至今已下跌超过50%。 周四投资者涌入被认为对经济更为敏感的周期性股票，同时从与人工智能（AI）交易相关的成长型股 票中获利了结。这一轮调仓发生在美联储周三今年第三次降息之后。 在前一交易日，道指和标普500指数均收于纪录高位，而纳斯达克综合指数则下跌0.3%收市，因 Alphabet和英伟达（Nvid ...

本周，标普500指数上涨0.45%，道指上涨近1.6%。纳斯达克指数是三大主要股指中表现最弱的，涨幅 不足0.1%。与此同时，小市值公司表现优于大盘股，罗素2000指数本周上涨2.7%，并在周四创下历史 新高。 北京时间12月12日晚，美股周五开盘涨跌不一。道指在昨日创历史新高后继续走强。市场关注板块轮动 迹象。美联储鲍尔森称有进一步降息的空间。 芯片制造商博通（Broadcom）股价大跌，尽管其第四季度业绩超出预期，并对本季度给出了强劲的预 测，称人工智能芯片销售额有望翻倍。 运动服饰零售商露露乐檬（Lululemon）股价跳涨，此前该公司宣布其首席执行官将于1月底卸任。该股 今年表现不佳，年初至今已下跌超过50%。 周四投资者涌入被认为对经济更为敏感的周期性股票，同时从与人工智能（AI）交易相关的成长型股 票中获利了结。这一轮调仓发生在美联储周三今年第三次降息之后。 在前一交易日，道指和标普500指数均收于纪录高位，而纳斯达克综合指数则下跌0.3%收市，因 Alphabet和英伟达（Nvidia）等近期大涨的科技股回落。 Northlight资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利（Chris Zaccar ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for 2026 suggests a focus on growth themes while avoiding over-concentration, ensuring portfolio diversification, and maintaining robust liquidity strategies to seize opportunities in a new era [4][10][26] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the market experienced significant volatility but also recorded impressive performance, driven by policy easing, corporate value enhancement strategies, and major economies pushing for reforms [3][15] - The AI boom has propelled stock markets to new highs, with gold, a safe-haven asset, rising nearly 60% over the past year, outperforming many long-term growth themes [3][15] - The global macro environment remains resilient, yet geopolitical complexities and economic security concerns persist, prompting companies to reshape supply chains for enhanced resilience [3][16] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to continue focusing on growth themes while avoiding excessive concentration, particularly in AI-related stocks, which should be limited to about one-third of the equity portfolio [21] - The global stock outlook remains positive, with expectations of a mid-double-digit upside for the MSCI All Country World Index by the end of 2026, and a projected 10% growth in S&P 500 earnings [19] - The AI capital expenditure cycle is expected to remain strong, supported by positive free cash flow from major cloud service providers and a significant increase in demand for computing power [19][20] Group 3: Regional Insights and Sector Opportunities - Different regions are pursuing distinct AI strategies, with the U.S. focusing on cutting-edge infrastructure and large models, while China emphasizes algorithm efficiency and industrial applications [20] - European markets, characterized by a high proportion of value stocks, are anticipated to see a profit recovery, with earnings growth accelerating to 7% in 2026 and further to 18% in 2027 [21] - The Chinese market presents opportunities beyond AI, with structural changes leading to improved conditions in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors [22][23] Group 4: Liquidity and Diversification Strategies - Diversification remains crucial for protecting investment portfolios amid disruptive changes, with a focus on high-quality bonds to mitigate volatility and provide income [10][25] - In the event of an economic slowdown, high-quality bonds and commodities like gold are expected to serve as effective hedges, with gold prices projected to reach $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [25] - Alternative assets, particularly hedge funds and private equity, are viewed as key components of a robust investment strategy, alongside maintaining sufficient liquidity to avoid forced asset sales during market turbulence [11][25]

公开资料显示，苏箐曾担任华为车 BU 智能驾驶产品部部长，负责华为自动驾驶系统方案。2022 年 1 月，苏箐正式从华为离职。同年 10 月，苏箐加入地平 线。 苏菁称，关于特斯拉 FSD V12 到底是不是最强的问题，业内争议很大，但这个问题不重要，重要的是 FSD V12 证明了一段式端到端技术的可行性，推动智 驾技术范式从规则驱动转向数据驱动。他认为，一段式端到端在智驾行业的普及将带来两大趋势的行业演进。 一是智驾系统会在未来几年内越来越"类人"，这将使 L2 级辅助驾驶迎来巨大的发展红利期，城区辅助驾驶将逐步普及到 10 万元级别车型。 二是 L2 和 L4 级别的智驾方法论统一，同样的开发范式，不仅能提升 L2 辅助驾驶体验，同时也能以更低的部署成本和几乎无限制部署区域扩张，落 地一个 L4 系统（Robotaxi）。 2024年,以FSD V12成熟为标准, 智能驾驶迎来内在底层技术 范式与外部用户感知体验的一次 重构。其意义,堪比核能从理论 迈入工程。 苏 等 地平线副总裁兼首席架构师 2025 地平线技术生态大会 HORIZON 75 TOGETHER Z IT之家 12 月 12 日消息，据 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - On December 12, A-shares rebounded with all three major indices closing in the green: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to 3889.35 points, Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and ChiNext Index gained 0.97% to 3194.36 points [2] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan [2] - Various sectors saw rapid rotation in market hotspots, including controlled nuclear fusion, precious metals, power grid equipment, and commercial aerospace, leading to a surge in stock limits [2] Group 2: ETF and Bond Market - On December 12, ETFs closed mixed, with the Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) up by 5.00%, Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) up by 4.98%, and Penghua Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (589020) up by 4.52% [1] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.35% to 482.97 points, with notable gains in Jiaze Convertible Bond (up 15.13%), Songlin Convertible Bond (up 9.40%), and Hangyu Convertible Bond (up 8.80%) [1] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Citi Private Bank anticipates continued global economic expansion driven by policy easing and moderate improvement in global economic activity, leading to increased investments in strong-performing U.S. large-cap stocks [4] - UBS Wealth Management's Greater China Investment Director suggests that while global economic pressures exist, a recession is unlikely, and investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to continue driving market growth [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of innovation in policy-making, with a focus on developing a modern industrial system and enhancing intellectual property protection in emerging fields [5]

智通财经APP获悉，近期，富国基金经理罗擎分享了他对人工智能(AI)领域的深度观察与最新研判。他 表示，对明年主线非常乐观，认为AI将是贯穿全年的最明显主线。但过程中必然有波折，要对短期快 速上涨保持警惕。 罗擎指，长期看好AI产业前景，行业仍在快速演进——如OpenAI与芯片巨头的深度绑定、Sora2的突破 表现等，但也指出经历三季度大幅上涨后，部分公司股价已较充分反映当前基本面，投资性价比有所回 落。 至于能走多远，罗擎指要观察两个方面，即市场驱动因素：一是企业业绩，这是根本；二是市场流动 性。总结来说，看好基本面，但资金面需边走边看。 此外，他也持续看好光模块行业的整体发展。同时认为短期涨幅确实夸张，在如此大的体量下，短期再 涨后可能需要休整，但长远看好。 今年三季度，光模块龙头公司的业绩出现分化，有的光模块公司业绩很好，但也有不少公司业绩不佳或 低于预期。核心差别就在于对原材料的准备。物料准备越充分的公司，明年业绩越可能表现出色。 在液冷方面，他表示，液冷本质上是AI的一个分支，看好明年行业开始放量。因为随着AI机柜密度和 芯片功率提升，发热量越来越高，必须使用液冷这种高效散热方式来维持系统稳定。现在 ...

12月11日，美联储降息尘埃落地，美联储FOMC会议公布降息25bp至3.5%-3.75%的利率水平，并发布新一期联储官员预测和利率点阵图，点阵图指引2026年 降息幅度仍然维持25bp。 此次会议，除了降息外，更引人关注的是美联储扩表的消息，本次会议宣布开始扩表，增加短债的购买，根据纽约联储的披露，本月的购买计划为约400亿 美元。本次的扩表为技术性扩表RMP（Reserve Management Purchases），鲍威尔强调，本次扩表的唯一目的是在较长时间内维持充足的储备金供应，以缓 解货币市场压力，不代表货币政策倾向的变化。 2022年6月1日至今，美联储缩表已持续了大约3年半的时间，此次重启扩表与以往有何不同，年关将至，扩表又将如何影响资本市场，投资者们又该如何安 排2026年的投资布局呢？ 技术性扩表，力度有限 "扩表"（资产负债表扩张）是中央银行（如美联储、中国人民银行）通过购买金融资产向经济体系注入流动性的货币政策操作，通常通过量化宽松 QE 实 施。简单来说，就是央行"印钱"买资产，让市场上钱变多。2008年金融危机以来，美联储共实施了四轮大规模的扩表。 2008年11月至2010年3月的 ...

OpenAI昨日与迪士尼（Disney）宣布达成一项规模10亿美元的合作协议：迪士尼将向OpenAI投资10亿美 元，作为回报，OpenAI将允许Sora（OpenAI旗下文本生成视频工具）用户使用迪士尼、漫威、皮克斯及 《星球大战》系列的200多个角色生成短视频。尽管你可能对此持怀疑态度，但对OpenAI而言，这无疑 是一条极具潜力的收入渠道。自推出以来热度略有消退的Sora，若能借助这些知名角色提升YouTube等 平台的用户参与度及变现能力，内容创作者或愿意为其投入更多资金。 对于关注"企业如何在不依赖广告的前提下实现AI变现"的市场参与者而言，这一合作令人振奋。OpenAI 与迪士尼的联手，为行业提供了一种替代"聊天机器人广告轰炸"的新路径——后者往往会让产品变得像 Facebook动态推送一样令人反感。 标普500指数昨日延续上行态势，与此同时，在美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）本周宣布降息后，美国2 年期国债收益率在3.50%关口附近震荡。市场最终认为，此次降息的鹰派程度远不及预期。降息对市场 中非科技板块的提振作用尤为显著：标普500等权重指数正逐步追平科技股占比高的市值加权指数， CAMarket ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged due to global supply constraints and increased demand from both industrial users and investors, reaching a historic high of over $60 per ounce for the first time [4][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since January, silver prices have more than doubled, driven by a significant supply shortage exacerbated by strong demand from industrial users and investors [4][5]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has experienced a historic supply shortage in the silver futures market, with U.S. silver inventories remaining at approximately 456 million ounces, three times the historical average [5][6]. - Analysts expect the supply tightness in silver to persist, with retail investors increasingly favoring silver, often referred to as "the poor man's gold" [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Silver and copper have overtaken gold as the most popular precious metals for investment, with significant inflows into silver ETFs, surpassing those of gold ETFs [6][7]. - The volatility in silver prices has increased, with a notable 11% rise since reaching its historic high on October 20, while gold prices have remained relatively stable [6][7]. - Retail trading activity in silver has surged, with micro silver futures contracts reaching their highest average trading volume since mid-October [7]. Group 3: Market Speculation and Future Outlook - Speculative trading in silver options has intensified, with significant volumes of call options being traded, indicating bullish sentiment among investors [7][8]. - Analysts predict that both silver and copper prices may experience short-term corrections of 10% to 15%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing supply constraints [9]. - The outlook for copper is similarly optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases driven by demand from AI data centers and clean energy projects [8][9].