今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，国际黄金市场冲高回落，多空分歧加剧。截至发稿，伦敦金现报4584.07 美元/盎司，较前一交易日收盘价下跌14.57美元，跌幅0.32%，盘中曾短暂触及4600美元/盎司整数关口 后遇阻回落。 摘要今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，国际黄金市场冲高回落，多空分歧加剧。截至发稿，伦敦金现报 4584.07美元/盎司，较前一交易日收盘价下跌14.57美元，跌幅0.32%，盘中曾短暂触及4600美元/盎司整 数关口后遇阻回落。 中长期而言，黄金的基本面依然稳健。全球范围内，"去美元化"趋势不断加强，各国央行特别是新兴市 场国家如中国、印度等持续增加黄金储备，显示出对黄金长期价值的认可，这为金价提供了坚实的底部 支撑。同时，地缘政治紧张局势和不断攀升的全球债务水平增强了黄金作为避险资产的地位。汇丰银行 预测，在这些因素共同作用下，到2026年上半年，金价有望达到5000美元/盎司。此外，美国经济面临 的制造业疲软及消费挑战也预示着未来更宽松的货币政策环境，有利于黄金价格上涨。 【要闻速递】 综上所述，当前影响黄金走势的关键因素是美国12月CPI数据，短期内需密切关注4500美元/盎司关口 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-13 权益走强，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号; 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号；中央经济 工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵 活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比 上升0.7%。 财政：（3）11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力不大， 财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更加向民 生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发行提速 带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济 形成一定支撑，但更强拉动 ...

Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President John Williams emphasizes the importance of central bank independence, warning that attacks on it can lead to negative economic consequences, including high inflation. He asserts that the current monetary policy stance is robust and does not require short-term adjustments to interest rates, with GDP growth projected at 2.5%-2.75% in 2026 and inflation expected to return to the 2% target by 2027 [1][4][5]. Group 1 - Williams defends Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid legal challenges, stating that the current monetary policy effectively supports labor market stability and aims to bring inflation back to the long-term target of 2% [3][4]. - He projects inflation to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to the 2% target by 2027 [4][5]. - Williams highlights that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adjusted its monetary policy stance to a more neutral level, indicating no immediate urgency for rate cuts [6][8]. Group 2 - He stresses the importance of achieving the 2% inflation target without causing unnecessary risks to the labor market, noting that recent data shows increased downside risks to employment and reduced upside risks to inflation [7][9]. - Williams acknowledges the political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates significantly, despite the current inflation being above target levels [8][9]. - He believes that the market's relatively calm response to the ongoing political and legal issues reflects uncertainty about how these matters will resolve, which limits significant asset price fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The series of articles by "Zhong Caiping" published in the People's Daily serves as a significant indicator of the government's economic strategy for 2026, emphasizing the importance of adapting economic policies to local conditions and addressing current challenges in economic governance [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Work Principles - The articles cover essential principles and key areas of economic work, including adapting economic strategies to local conditions, promoting consumption and investment, and enhancing macroeconomic governance [3][4]. Policy Interpretation - The article titled "Enhancing Policy Integration Effects to Improve Macroeconomic Governance Efficiency" highlights the new emphasis on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [6]. It discusses the need for a forward-looking and scientific approach to monetary policy in 2026, aiming for a balance between liquidity and economic growth [6]. Consumption and Investment - The article "Coordinating Consumption and Investment to Build a Strong Domestic Market" argues that investment and consumption should not be seen as mutually exclusive but rather as mutually reinforcing elements of economic growth [8]. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining fiscal stimulus and expanding government investment to achieve a growth target of around 5% in 2026 [8][9]. Real Estate Development - The article "Using Livelihood Improvement to Open New Development Space" discusses the potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector, noting that there remains significant unmet housing demand among urban residents [11][12]. It suggests that real estate will continue to play a crucial role in driving domestic demand and economic growth [12]. Employment and Income - The articles stress the need to promote a virtuous cycle of employment, income, consumption, and investment, with a focus on implementing plans to increase urban and rural residents' incomes [12]. This includes reforms in income distribution and fiscal policies to support low-income groups [12].

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with prices trading above $84.29, opening at $85.16, and showing a decline of 0.81% to $84.47 as of the latest report [1] - The highest price reached was $85.39, while the lowest dipped to $83.40, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver prices [1] Group 2 - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams noted that inflation is influenced by tariffs, rising approximately 0.5 percentage points, primarily borne by the American public, but the underlying trend remains favorable without widespread price pressures [2] - He anticipates that inflation will peak in the first half of 2026 and gradually decline, returning to the 2% target level by 2027 [2] - Williams expressed optimism about the U.S. economic growth rate, projecting it to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, while emphasizing that monetary policy is currently "closer to neutral" and future decisions will depend strictly on data [2] - He highlighted the need for the Federal Reserve to balance controlling inflation with avoiding employment shocks as inflation risks diminish and employment market risks increase [2] Group 3 - Silver prices reached a high of around $86 recently, closing at $84.5, suggesting potential for adjustment while maintaining a bullish trend [3] - Support levels for silver are identified at $83.00 and $81.35, with resistance levels at $85.60 and $87.00 [3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract rising 0.07% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds also fluctuated. The market risk preference increased, suppressing the bond market sentiment, and the prices of Treasury bond futures were generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TF2603, T2603, and TL2603 increased, while those of TS2606, TF2606, T2606, and TL2606 showed different changes. The T2603 contract rose 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed, with the open interest of T2603 and TF2603 decreasing [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts changed, with some spreads widening and some narrowing [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.2bp, DR007 rate rose 0.92bp, and GC007 rate rose 5.4bp [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased 1.38bp to 1.87%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 45.72bp [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields Overseas**: The 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose 1bp, that in Germany rose 0bp, and that in Japan rose 1.3bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 12th, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan after 50 billion yuan of repurchases matured [3]. - **Policy Announcements**: The State Council issued the "2026 First Batch of Key Matters List for 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'", and four departments jointly released work methods for government investment funds [3]. - **International News**: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which led to concerns about the Fed's independence and an increase in the prices of gold and silver [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On January 12th, most money market interest rates in China increased, and US Treasury bond yields also rose collectively [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The central bank's net investment, rising short - term interest rates, improved economic data, and increased market risk preference all put pressure on the bond market. Although there are expectations of loose policies at the beginning of the year, the prices of Treasury bond futures are generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance is robust, with no immediate need for interest rate adjustments, as stated by New York Fed President John Williams [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Williams emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adjusted its "moderately restrictive monetary policy stance" closer to a neutral level [2]. - He noted that the current monetary policy effectively supports labor market stability and aims to bring inflation back to the long-term target of 2% [1][2]. - The expectation for GDP growth is optimistic, projected at 2.5% to 2.75%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Williams anticipates inflation will peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to the 2% target by 2027 [1]. - He acknowledged that while inflation remains high, the labor market shows signs of cooling, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. Group 3: Defense of Powell and Independence Risks - Williams defended Fed Chair Jerome Powell, asserting his integrity and leadership during challenging times, amidst attacks on the Fed's independence [3]. - He warned against undermining the central bank's independence, stating that such attacks could lead to unfortunate economic consequences, including high inflation [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's response to the ongoing political and legal issues surrounding the Fed has been relatively calm, attributed to the uncertainty of how these matters will resolve [3][4]. - Williams described the current market volatility as moderate, indicating that the lack of certainty regarding the outcomes limits significant asset level changes [4].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a slight rebound, supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a resilient US economy, despite political pressures on the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate for December was reported at 4.4%, slightly below expectations, alleviating concerns about the labor market [2]. - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates no immediate reason for interest rate cuts, with GDP growth projected between 2.5% and 2.75% for 2026 [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The dollar index has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of January, rising from 97.905 to around 98.90, with a cumulative increase of over 1% [2]. - The dollar index is currently trading above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [2]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support has shifted to 98.87, previously a resistance level, with additional strong support between 98.40 and 98.50 [3]. - The 99.00 level is identified as a critical short-term resistance, with potential upward movement towards 99.22 and further resistance at 99.50 and 100.00 [3].

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半，早盘小幅冲高，午后略有回落，临近尾盘再 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 度拉升，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.30%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上 | 涨 | 0.06%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 上涨 | 0.05%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 持平。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations for monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to factors such as the weakening of the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures and the insufficient upward momentum, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. As the price of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the interest rate cut expectations implied by the Treasury bond yield to maturity faded, and the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate emerged. Coupled with the central bank's resumption of net investment in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakened. However, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. But the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, inflation data improved, and the short - term urgency of interest rate cuts weakened, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures [5].