Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has unexpectedly lowered the one-week repo rate by 150 basis points to 38%, indicating a complex economic environment with declining inflation and rising GDP growth [3][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - On December 11, the Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in the policy rate from 39.5% to 38%, exceeding market expectations of a 100 basis point cut [3]. - The Central Bank noted that inflation trends showed a slight decline in October and November, with November's consumer inflation rate falling below expectations due to an unexpected drop in food prices [5]. - The recent inflation data has expanded the Central Bank's operational space, with the interest rate and inflation differential widening to approximately 8.5 percentage points, increasing market bets on further rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Turkish Statistical Institute reported that the monthly inflation rate slowed to 0.87% in November, the lowest since May 2023, while the annual inflation rate decreased to 31.07%, below the expected 31.6% [5]. - The third quarter GDP growth rate was higher than expected, indicating a coexistence of declining inflation and rising economic growth, complicating policy decisions [5]. - JP Morgan's recent report forecasts a 4.4% growth in Turkey's GDP for 2026, with an acceleration expected in the second half of the year, although consumer confidence remains fragile despite improving macroeconomic conditions [8].

来源：三里河 时间：2025年12月10日至11日 事件：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 要点：总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作 总结2025年经济工作 必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合 必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战 经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐 重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力 "十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局 五个"必须" 必须充分挖掘经济潜能 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举 必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好" 形势研判 我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域 风险隐患较多。 这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势 没有改变。 要坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑战，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 部署2026年经济工作 ——政策取向 坚持稳中求进、提质增效 发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 提升宏观经济治理效能 ——财政政策 把促进经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Monetary Policy - The conference highlighted the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1] - It was stated that the monetary policy will maintain ample liquidity and facilitate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Chief researcher Dong Ximiao from Zhailian predicts that in 2026, deposit rates and policy rates are expected to decline further, with one to two RRR cuts and interest rate reductions likely to be implemented [1] - The focus will also be on utilizing structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources towards technological innovation, green development, and boosting consumption, while avoiding a "flood-like" monetary policy approach [1]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘佳 北京报道 美联储2025年宽松周期持续深化，年内已累计完成75个基点降息。 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储结束了本年度最后一次议息会议，如期宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点。至此年内第三次降息落地，利率最终定格于3.5%—3.75% 区间。 在多位受访专家看来，美联储此次25个基点的降息幅度虽符合市场普遍预期，但决策背后的内部分歧尤 为值得关注。当天参加表决的12名美联储官员中，有3人投票反对，这是2019年9月以来议息会议反对票 数量最多的一次，凸显了美联储内部对通胀和就业风险平衡的政策博弈。会后公布的利率点阵图也显 示，政策制定者维持2026年再降息一次的预期，预计到明年年底通胀率将放缓至2.4%左右。 值得注意的是，在美联储此次降息前夕，中央政治局会议已为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增 效"的总基调，并明确将继续实施"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，为国内经济发展和政 策调整预留出充足空间，彰显出我国宏观调控的战略定力。 上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，我国货币政策仍坚 持"以我为 ...

目前，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）委员内部的分歧正日益凸显。从点阵图来看，核心信息在于，与9月的观点一致，委员会中位委员仍然认为未 来两年内每年仅需降息一次。 然而，联邦公开市场委员会委员们当前对于利率政策的观点存在显著分歧，这使得市场对于未来宽松政策的力度难以形成明确预期。 CA Markets倾向于认为2026年美联储或将实施两次降息。不过，考虑到联邦政府停摆导致相关经济数据缺失，美联储当前保留政策调整余地的做 法，在我们看来是一种审慎且合理的策略。 美联储本次会议并未如市场预期般释放"鹰派降息"信号，美元汇率随即走低。此次会议中，仅两名委员持鹰派立场并反对降息，反对人数少于投资 者此前的预期。鲍威尔暗示，美联储或将在1月份按兵不动，但他同时明确表示，本轮货币政策不会长期维持观望状态，其表态透露出美联储愿意进 一步降息以支撑劳动力市场的政策倾向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks led to a significant increase in spot gold prices [1][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with three officials dissenting [5]. - The FOMC's statement highlighted downward risks to employment and persistent inflation pressures, indicating high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [5]. - The "dot plot" from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggests that most members anticipate the federal funds rate to be around 3.4% next year, implying a potential further rate cut of 25 basis points [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Spot gold closed up by $20.20 at $4228.47 per ounce following the Fed's decision and Powell's comments [2]. - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.6% to 98.65, marking the largest single-day decline since September 16, which positively impacted gold prices [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields also dropped significantly, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling by 3.5 basis points to 4.155%, supporting gold's upward movement [4]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that gold traders reacted positively to the Fed's outcome, with gold reaching its highest price of the day after a period of profit-taking [4]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold's upward trend may continue, with potential targets of $4300 per ounce and historical highs of $4381 per ounce if it breaks through [8]. - If gold prices fall below $4200 per ounce, the next support levels are identified at approximately $4153 (20-day SMA) and $4090 (50-day SMA) [10].

本文转载自每日经济新闻 值班编辑 | 江江 视觉 | 顾芗 美国联邦储备委员会12月10日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.5%至3.75%之间。这是 美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 鲍威尔就降息决定发表讲话 12月10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息决定发表讲话。鲍威尔表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进 美国民众充分就业和物价稳定的双重使命为指导。在当日的会议上，委员会决定降息25个基点，短期内 通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，形势充满挑战。通过当日的决定，委员会在过去三次会议上已 累计下调政策利率0.75个百分点。此举有助于稳定劳动力市场，并在关税影响消退后，使通胀恢复至2% 的下降趋势。 鲍威尔称，自9月以来，委员会对政策立场的调整使其处于中性预期范围内，这使他们能够根据最新数 据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡，更好地确定政策利率进一步调整的幅度和时机。 鲍威尔表示，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的经济预测总结中，与会者分别就各自认为最有可能的 经济情景下联邦基金利率的适当路径进行了评估。2026年底联邦基金利率的预测中值为3.4%，20 ...

特朗普突然释放重磅信号。 美国总统特朗普在最新访谈中明确表示，支持立即大幅降息将成为其选择新任美联储主席的关键标准。有分析指出，这一表态凸显了特朗普对货币政 策的干预意图，可能加剧白宫与美联储之间的紧张关系。 在美联储公布利率决议前夕，隔夜美股市场窄幅震荡，三大指数收盘涨跌不一。其中，华尔街巨头摩根大通股价盘中大幅跳水，暴跌超4%，拖累道 指走低、由涨转跌。消息面上，摩根大通高管警告2026年支出将大幅增加，投资者担忧其业绩增速或将放缓。 特朗普最新发声 当地时间12月9日，美国政治新闻网站Politico报道，特朗普明确表示，支持大幅降息将成为他挑选下一任美联储主席的决定性因素。 在最新的采访中，当被问及是否将支持大幅降息作为美联储主席提名人选的考察标准时，特朗普明确回应称："是的。" 报道称，这一表态打破了历届总统在美联储人事任命上保持相对克制的传统，可能对美联储的独立性构成挑战。 美联储主席的任命将直接影响未来数年的货币政策走向。特朗普对降息的明确偏好，可能促使其选择倾向于宽松货币政策的候选人，这与市场对通胀 压力的担忧形成对比。 | 最高:318.80 | 今开:314.95 | 成交量：1790.5 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行（新华社）保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 https://t.co/hg50nWl2V1 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of zinc and nickel, which fell by 0.3% and 0.91% respectively. Tin led the gains with a rise of 1.02%, while copper increased by 0.8% [1] - Aluminum oxide futures dropped by 1.4%, reaching a historical low of 2462 yuan/ton, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.36% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 3.97%, polysilicon futures increased by 1.32%, and industrial silicon futures rose by 0.06% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coil all fell by over 1%, with iron ore down 1.3% [1] - Internationally, most base metals saw increases, except for nickel, which fell by 0.05% [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose by 0.32%, while COMEX silver surged by 2.16%, reaching a new high of $63.25/ounce [1] - Domestic gold and silver also saw increases, with Shanghai gold up 0.21% and Shanghai silver up 3.07%, the latter reaching a record of 14665 yuan/kg [1] Macro Environment - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [3] - The World Bank raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3] - Jilin Province's planning document emphasized the need to manage risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [3] Oil Market - As of 15:03, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% and 0.61% respectively, amid ongoing attention to peace talks in Ukraine [5] - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [5]