智通财经APP获悉，周二，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会听证会，就当前利率政策前景发表讲话。他表 示，如果不是由于特朗普政府于4月2日启动的新一轮关税措施，美联储本可能已经开始降息。然而，关 税所带来的潜在通胀风险，令决策层选择继续按兵不动。 面对议员提问鲍威尔是否可能在7月会议上降息，他没有明确表态，只是表示决策将视通胀与就业数据 而定。"如果通胀压力持续受到抑制，我们将更有空间'尽早而不是太晚'降息。我不会承诺在特定会议 上采取行动。"鲍威尔回应道。他补充道："当前形势复杂，我们需要谨慎处理。" 虽然美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒近期都暗示7月可能是首次降息的时机，市场对此仍持保留态度。据 CME FedWatch工具数据显示，投资者仅赋予7月降息18.6%的概率，而9月降息的概率高达87%。 鲍威尔表示，虽然第二季度经济尚未显现剧烈波动，企业已感受到预期不确定性。"许多企业目前还在 清理2月份的库存，但预计第三季度起将感受到关税带来的压力。" 第一季度美国GDP年化下降0.2%，其中企业抢在关税实施前大量进口，导致进口暴增42.6%。尽管经济 增长放缓，鲍威尔称就业市场依然稳健，失业率5月维持在4.2%，符合"充 ...

消费者在调查中提交的评论信息显示，影响消费者对经济看法的主要议题与5月相比没有什么变化。关 税依然是消费者首要关心的问题，其次是通胀和高物价。消费者提到地缘政治和社会动乱的次数有小幅 增加但仍远不是主要话题。 调查显示，消费者对12个月以后通胀的预期从4月的7%和5月的6.4%进一步回落至6月的6%。有57%的 调查对象预期利率会上升，为2023年10月以来的最高水平。有45.6%的消费者预期美国股市在未来12个 月上涨，从4月份37.6%的低点继反弹。 调查还显示，认为未来12个月美国出现经济衰退消费者的比例小幅升高至接近70%的水平。消费者对家 庭当前财务状况的评估依然坚实但小幅恶化，消费者对家庭未来财务状况的评估则达到四个月以来高 点。 新华财经纽约6月24日电（记者刘亚南）美国研究机构世界大型企业研究会24日发布的调查数据显示， 由于整体情况恶化，6月份美国消费者信心指数从5月份修订后的98.4明显下滑至93，并显著低于市场共 识预期的99。 其中，消费者对当前商业和就业市场条件的评估指数回落6.4点，至129.1点。反映短期收入前景、商业 和就业市场环境的消费者预期指数则回落4.6点，降至69点，显 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economic outlook for 2025, highlighting a complex and fragile environment with high uncertainty and frequent shocks. The global market is expected to oscillate between policy reversals and recession concerns [3][5]. Core Economic Insights - **United States**: Core growth momentum is gradually weakening, with negative policy impacts becoming more pronounced. The economy recorded a negative GDP growth of -0.3% in Q1, primarily due to tariff impacts and reduced consumer spending [3][18][19]. - **Europe**: Limited macroeconomic improvement is noted, with Germany's fiscal deficit temporarily boosting confidence, but consumer investment remains low. The European Central Bank is expected to have 1-2 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - **Japan**: High inflation continues to suppress economic recovery, with wage growth offset by inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again before the end of 2025 [4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - **U.S. Stocks**: The S&P 500 may test previous highs around 6150, but volatility is expected, particularly influenced by inflation and fiscal risks [5]. - **U.S. Bonds**: Long-term yields are anticipated to remain high, fluctuating between 4.2%-4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [5]. - **Dollar**: The DXY index is expected to soften to around 95 in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - **Japanese Market**: The Nikkei 225 index is projected to fluctuate between 36,000-40,000 points [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Continued bullish outlook on gold, with recommendations to buy on dips [5]. Consumer and Employment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: There is a slowdown in consumer spending driven by wage growth deceleration and diminishing pre-consumption effects. Leading indicators are nearing levels seen during the subprime mortgage crisis [6][22]. - **Inflation Pressures**: Rising upstream costs are expected to translate into retail price increases, with CPI potentially returning to 3% by mid-year [6][28]. - **Employment Market**: Job cuts in mid-to-high-end positions are increasing, with a decline in support for service and government employment. The unemployment rate is projected to rise but remain below historical averages [32][34][35]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Insights - **Fiscal Deficit Risks**: The "Great Beautiful" policy under the Trump administration is expected to expand the deficit, pushing long-term bond yields higher [6]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential rate cuts in late 2025. The market anticipates about 3 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 to early 2026 [41][45]. - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs are raising import costs, leading to retail price adjustments. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to elevate inflation expectations [29][31]. Additional Considerations - **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The overall economic trajectory suggests a balance of risks and opportunities, necessitating careful navigation of frequent shocks and ongoing volatility [5]. - **Tax Policy Changes**: The recent tax reforms favoring the wealthy and corporations may exacerbate income inequality and fiscal pressures, with significant implications for low-income households and social spending [52]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic conditions have not yet reached a neutral level due to rising inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The primary reason for not achieving a neutral level is attributed to the increase in inflation expectations [1]

金十数据6月24日讯，美联储哈玛克表示，利率只是适度具有限制性，官员们可能会在一段时间内保持 借贷成本稳定。哈玛克星期二称，尽管最近取得了进展，但美联储在达到通胀目标之前还有"一段距 离"。她还表示，官方数据是回顾过去的，可能无法完全反映当前的形势，包括近期油价上涨可能会推 高通胀预期。哈玛克说："在委员会开始非常温和的降息以使政策回归中性之前，政策很可能会维持相 当一段时间。" 美联储哈玛克：政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持不变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy remains in a solid state despite uncertainties, with low unemployment and inflation slightly above the 2% target, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged [1][2][5]. Economic Situation and Outlook - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a GDP growth of 2.5% last year, although there was a slight decline in the first quarter due to net export fluctuations caused by businesses pre-importing to mitigate potential tariffs [3]. - Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained a steady growth of 2.5%, with consumer spending slowing down but a rebound in equipment and intangible asset investments [3]. - Surveys indicate a decline in market confidence and increased uncertainty regarding economic outlook, primarily related to trade policies [3]. - The labor market remains robust, with an average monthly addition of 124,000 non-farm jobs in the first five months of the year and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3]. - Wage growth has slowed but remains above inflation levels, indicating a balanced labor market that aligns with maximum employment goals [3]. Inflation - Inflation has significantly decreased since mid-2022 but remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rising by 2.3% over the past 12 months, and core PCE increasing by 2.6% [4]. - Recent inflation expectations have risen, influenced by tariffs, although long-term expectations generally align with the 2% target [4]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on achieving maximum employment and price stability, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% due to the current labor market conditions and inflation levels [5][6]. - The Fed is gradually reducing its holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, with a flexible approach to adjusting monetary policy based on new data and economic outlook [6]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation and economic activity remains uncertain, with expectations of price increases due to tariffs potentially exerting pressure on the economy [6]. - The Fed aims to stabilize long-term inflation expectations to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [6].

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的责任是维持低而稳定的通胀预期。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) retains the policy space to initiate interest rate cuts within the next six months, as stated by François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - Current market assessments indicate that inflation expectations remain moderate, which could justify further easing of monetary conditions in the next six monetary policy cycles if this trend continues [1] - The significant appreciation of the euro against major currencies has provided a hedging effect against rising international oil prices [1] Group 2 - Villeroy distinguishes between neutral interest rates and terminal rates, explaining that while they may converge under certain conditions, they serve different functions within the policy framework [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is identified as a new major uncertainty, with potential for dual-directional volatility [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring international oil price trends, but emphasizes that oil price fluctuations alone are insufficient to trigger policy responses unless they affect core inflation and inflation expectations [1] Group 3 - Regarding potential changes in US-EU trade relations, Villeroy assesses that a substantial escalation in trade tensions could exert downward pressure on eurozone economic growth through suppressed cross-border trade channels [2] - However, this impact is not expected to directly translate into upward inflationary pressures, consistent with previous ECB research on the transmission mechanism of imported inflation [2]

Group 1: Investment Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The allocation ratio of funds to the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 1.07 percentage points to 4.59% in Q1 2025, with copper, gold, and aluminum being the key focus for increased allocation [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 8.11% from the beginning of 2025 to May 30, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.52 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industry indices [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the non-ferrous metals sector is projected to be 141.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%, while Q1 2025 net profit is expected to reach 45.27 billion yuan, a 70.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity and benefit gold [2] - Gold's investment value is highlighted by rising inflation expectations in the U.S., alongside ongoing tariff uncertainties that increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Geopolitical risks and major central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves are anticipated to further push gold prices upward [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand dynamics for rare earths are marginally improving, driven by policies promoting new energy vehicles and home appliances, which are expected to increase demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [3] - The domestic control over rare earth mining growth is slowing, and while imports from Myanmar have temporarily recovered, future import stability remains uncertain due to seasonal factors [3] - Export controls on heavy rare earths implemented in April 2025 are expected to drive up overseas rare earth prices, which will likely lead to domestic price increases [3] Group 4: Copper and Aluminum Market Fundamentals - The aluminum sector is supported by ongoing domestic policies, with high demand expected from the power grid, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4] - Short-term uncertainties remain due to tariff disruptions and economic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for aluminum prices is upward due to supply constraints [4] - The copper market faces short-term supply disruptions and long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, which are expected to support copper prices [4]

智通财经6月24日电，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示，如果看看迄今为止的市场评估，通胀预期仍然温 和。 ...