2025 年 06 月 15 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "狮子的力量"撼动油市，地缘溢价能撑多久？ ——石油石化事件点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列空袭伊朗前，美伊核谈已传出不容乐观的 消息，原油 VIX 直线飙升。据 Macrobond 数据，美伊达成协议的概 率从约 50%骤降至 25%左右。 事件发生后，市场担忧冲突影响原油供应，纷纷买入原油期货避险， 推动盘国际油价大幅飙升。据百度股市通，截至美东时间 6 月 12 日 22:50，美油 2507 合约上涨 11.96%，布油 2508 合约涨超 11%。同 时，黄金作为传统避险资产也出现拉升，COMEX 金 2506 合约上涨 1.7%。 伊朗是 OPEC 第三大产油国。截至 2021 年，伊朗石油探明储量达 2086 亿桶，约占全球总储量的 9%（2020 年数据）。20 ...

石化周报 以伊冲突升级，布油突破 75 美元 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 以伊冲突升级，布油突破 75 美元。6 月 12 日，美国位于伊朗打击范围内的 美国大使馆被要求召开紧急应变会议，命令部分工作人员离开驻巴格达大使馆， 并允许军人家属离开中东；6 月 13 日，以色列对伊朗发动袭击，且同日伊朗领 导人宣布不再计划参加原定于周日在阿曼举行的与美国的核谈判；6 月 14 日凌 晨，伊朗对以色列做出了回应，向以发射了多轮导弹。在地缘冲突的影响下，油 价本周大幅上涨，目前布油价格已突破 75 美元/桶。短期来看，由于中东地缘冲 突和美伊谈判暂停，叠加夏季是原油消费的旺季，油价短期下跌空间较小，但 OPEC+计划 5-7 月连续 3 个月增产 41.1 万桶/日，同时市场预期后续 OPEC+的 增产行动可能会持续，因此建议持续关注地缘演变和 OPEC+的实际产量情况。 ➢ 美元指数下降；布油价格上涨；东北亚 LNG 到岸价格上涨。截至 6 月 13 日，美元指数收于 98.15，周环比-1.06 个百分点。1）原油：布伦特原油期货结 算价为 74.23 美元/桶，周环比+11.67%；WTI 期货结算价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has raised questions about whether this is a temporary spike in risk sentiment or a signal of a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On June 13, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $3,467 per ounce, marking a three-day increase of over 3%, the most significant since 2019 [1][4]. - The international gold price has consistently hit new five-week highs, breaking the downward trend line since May 6 [1][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, has significantly impacted gold prices, with historical data indicating that a 10-point increase in the geopolitical risk index correlates with an average gold price increase of 2.3% [4][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The disconnect between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields is evident, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.36%, prompting increased investment in gold [7]. - Recent U.S. inflation data has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut rising to 80% following a 0.1% month-over-month increase in the CPI and a core CPI drop to 2.8% year-over-year [8][9]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the European Central Bank reporting that gold will account for 20% of reserves by 2024, surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset [10]. - China's central bank has been consistently increasing its gold holdings, reaching 2,296 tons by the end of May [10]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and TD Securities predict that gold prices could reach $3,700 and $3,650 respectively, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions [14][15]. - Conversely, JPMorgan warns that if the Middle East situation stabilizes, gold prices could retreat to $3,200 [16]. - Citibank maintains a year-end target of $3,000, suggesting that the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts may be slower than market expectations [17].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold, which has led to an increase in gold prices [3] - Basic metals such as copper and aluminum are experiencing divergent price trends, with copper prices remaining stable while aluminum prices have seen a slight increase [2][23] - The tungsten market is experiencing price increases, although market activity remains subdued [4][56] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to a combination of fundamental and sentiment factors [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with current prices at 78,350 CNY/ton. Domestic supply is high, and export plans are being arranged by some smelters, leading to potential inventory pressures [2][14] - Aluminum prices have increased slightly, with current prices at 20,465 CNY/ton, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory [2][23] - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the average price at 773.50 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week [3][27] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate at 252,500 CNY/ton [4][56] - The lithium market remains weak, with prices stabilizing around 60,000-65,000 CNY/ton [41][42] - Cobalt prices are stable, with the CIF price at 11.3-11.6 USD/pound, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [44][45] Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices have decreased by 1.4% to 442,500 CNY/ton, while heavy rare earths have also seen slight declines [5] - The magnetic materials sector is expected to improve as licensing for manufacturers progresses, indicating potential long-term opportunities [5] Market Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Rare Earth Holdings [2][5][26]

对于近期行情涨涨跌跌，反反复复，多空转换频繁，很多投资朋友们都措手不及，或不知从何下手，一买进就跌，出场就涨，来来回回连续损单，其实这是 很多新手朋友们都会出现的情况，在这里告诉大家，做交易首先不要频繁去操作，其次要对行情需要有一个精准的把控，坚持自己的交易系统，当然这些对 一些新手朋友来说都是空谈，毕竟才入市并没有严格的交易计划，大多数都是追涨杀跌从而导致严重亏损，如果此时此刻看到文章的你也是这样的情况，那 么可以咨询本人沟通交流一下，可以帮你指出做单中所有的问题，这样可以让你在交易的过程中少走弯路。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，中期走势围绕均线系统徘徊，中期客观趋势震荡为主。油价逐步上行至区间上沿附近。从动能看，MACD指标快慢 线上穿零轴向上，多头动能开始转暖。K线连续收小阳线。若后期油价突破区间阻力，则中期走势有望进一步上行测试70一线。原油短线(1H)走势震荡上行 再创新高触及70高位。均线系统多头排列，短线客观趋势方向向上不变。早盘K线收大实体阳线，呈主趋势向上。MACD指标在零轴上方张口向上，多头动 能占优势，预计日内原油走势继续突破上行。综合来看，原油下周操作思路上贺博生建议以回踩低多 ...

新华社纽约6月13日电 综述｜中东局势骤然升级致国际市场大幅震荡 新华社记者刘亚南 徐静 分析人士认为，市场对中东局势升级可能冲击全球能源供应链的恐慌情绪加剧，投资者担忧中东地缘政 治风险升高可能拖累包括美国在内的全球经济增长。 安永-博智隆公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科预计，若以色列与伊朗的冲突出现"重大升级"，全球经济 将遭受显著冲击，一年后全球实际国内生产总值（GDP）增速将比基本预测情形下减少1.8%，美国实 际GDP增速将比基本预测情形下减少1.9%。 以色列13日多次袭击伊朗境内核设施和军事目标，中东局势升级导致国际市场大幅震荡。股市方面，纽 约股市三大股指当天显著下挫，标准普尔500种股票指数跌破6000点；油价方面，国际油价在隔夜市场 一度大幅冲高，当天收盘时国际油价涨幅均超7%；金价方面，黄金作为避险资产受到市场追捧，现货 黄金价格触及近两个月高位。 由于市场避险需求显著升高，投资者选择在高位抛售。截至13日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数较前一交易 日下跌769.83点，收于42197.79点，跌幅为1.79%；标普500种股票指数下跌68.29点，收于5976.97点， 跌幅为1.13%；纳斯达 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - Israel has reported a new round of missile attacks from Iran, with nearly 100 ballistic missiles launched, resulting in at least 63 injuries, including 2 serious cases [4][6] - In retaliation, Israel has conducted airstrikes on multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran and Isfahan, targeting nuclear facilities [6][4] - The Iranian military has issued threats against Israel, indicating potential severe consequences for the Israeli regime [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a collective decline in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.79% to 42197.79 points, the S&P 500 down 1.13% to 5976.97 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.3% to 19406.83 points [8][7] - Energy stocks have risen due to soaring oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 7.55% to $73.18 per barrel, nearing the peak of $78.48 from June 2022 [11][13] - Gold prices have also rebounded, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48%, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty [13]

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The military strikes by Israel against Iran have heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with a closing increase of over 7% on June 13 [1][3] - As of the close on June 13, light crude oil futures for July delivery rose by $4.94 to $72.98 per barrel, marking a 7.26% increase, while Brent crude for August delivery increased by $4.87 to $74.23 per barrel, a 7.02% rise [1] Market Reactions and Concerns - Investors are concerned about potential retaliatory actions from Iran, which could escalate military conflicts and disrupt oil supplies, particularly if Iran targets U.S. or Israeli interests [3][5] - The price of oil briefly surged by 12% to over $77 per barrel due to fears of Iranian retaliation, indicating a shift in market focus from trade policies to geopolitical tensions [3] Oil Supply and Production Insights - Reports indicate that Israel's military actions have not yet disrupted Iran's oil infrastructure, allowing Iran to continue exporting oil [5] - Iran's average daily oil production was reported at 3.305 million barrels in April, and the International Energy Agency is monitoring the situation closely [4][5] Strategic Reserves and Market Stability - The International Energy Agency has 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves available, which could be utilized if necessary [5] - Analysts suggest that if Iranian oil production is temporarily interrupted, other OPEC countries could increase production to compensate, and the U.S. could release strategic oil reserves if market conditions tighten [5] Inflation and Price Projections - Rising energy prices could reverse the recent trend of declining inflation, with current comfortable oil price levels identified between $60 and $65 per barrel [6] - If tensions escalate and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could potentially spike to $120 per barrel, significantly impacting inflation rates in the U.S. [6]

中概股普遍下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.74%。热门中概股方面，联掌门户跌超12%，涂鸦智能跌逾8%，文远知行跌近8%，小马智行跌逾7%，金山 云跌超6%，世纪互联跌超5%。涨幅方面，晶科能源涨超2%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾1%。 中东地缘政治冲突引起全球市场投资者的担忧，周五（6月13日），欧美股市集体收跌。 美股能源股逆势上涨 受中东地缘政治冲突影响，全球市场避险情绪涌现，能源股则受到投资者青睐。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌1.79%，报42197.79点；纳斯达克指数跌1.30%，报19406.83点；标普500指数跌1.13%，报5976.97点。本周美股三大股指均录 得跌幅，道琼斯工业指数一周累计下跌1.32%，标普500指数下跌0.39%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.63%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42197.79 | -769.83 | -1.79% | -0.81% | | 2 | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19 ...

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 在A股三大指数集体收跌背景下，油气概念股逆势走强。 6月13日上午开盘，通源石油(300164.SZ)、准油股份(002207.SZ)、贝肯能源(002828.SZ)、中曼石油 (603619.SH)竞价涨停，科力股份(920088.BJ)、潜能恒信(300191.SZ)、宝利国际(300135.SZ)、洲际油气 (600759.SH)高开超10%。 截至当日收盘，科力股份收涨29.98%，通源石油收涨19.91%，首华燃气(300483.SZ)、潜能恒信、贝肯 能源、中曼石油均涨超10%。 | 油气开采及服务。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1349.69 8.89% | | | | | | 基金 成分股 简况(F10) | | 资金 | | 板块分析 新闻 | | 品多股同列 | | | | 乙批量加自选 | | 全部 龙头股 3日内有涨停 | 连板 | | | 连续3日主力净流入 ਚੋਣ | | 名称/代码 | 最新 = | | 涨幅 ◆ | 5日涨幅 = ▶ | | 科力股份 | 41.14 | | +29.98% | ...