贵金属日报 | 2026-01-13 地缘事件持续发酵 贵金属延续强势 市场分析 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将 面临25%的关税。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗做好了应对一切可能的准备，希望美国作出"智慧的选择"。如 果美国选择军事手段，伊朗也做好了准备。此外，英国和德国正牵头多个欧洲国家，商讨在格陵兰岛部署军队， 以回应美国总统特朗普对北极地区的"安全关切"。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-12，沪金主力合约开于1004.48元/克，收于1026.28元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.97%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1026.86元/克，收于1030.26元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.39%。 2026-01-12，沪银主力合约开于18800.00元/千克，收于20945.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动11.82%。当日成交 量为1207195手，持仓量为325729手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于20900元/千克，收于21268元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨1.54%。 美债收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has aggressively raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver $100 per ounce within the next three months due to escalating geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Price Predictions - Citigroup's analysts have increased the gold price target from $4,200 to $5,000 per ounce and silver from $62 to $100 per ounce in a bullish scenario [2]. - The report highlights strong investment momentum and suggests that favorable factors may continue into the first quarter [2]. - The ongoing physical shortages, particularly for silver and platinum group metals, may worsen in the short term due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Constraints - The core logic behind Citigroup's price increase is the resonance between supply constraints and safe-haven demand, with analysts noting that physical shortages are unlikely to ease soon [3]. - The bank's baseline scenario assumes that if geopolitical risks in Venezuela, Iran, and Ukraine ease later this year, it could pressure hedging demand, particularly for gold [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Consensus - Major investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, have formed a broad consensus on the long-term bullish sentiment for gold, with Morgan Stanley raising its Q4 2026 gold price target to $4,800 [4]. - JPMorgan's forecast is even more optimistic, predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 by Q4 2026 and potentially $6,000 in the long term [6]. Group 4: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - ING analysts emphasize that central bank gold purchases and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide a solid foundation for rising gold prices [7]. - A weak U.S. dollar, which has declined approximately 9% in 2025, is identified as a key macro factor supporting gold price increases [7]. Group 5: Silver and Base Metals Performance - Silver has shown remarkable performance, with a 147% increase in 2025, marking its strongest annual gain on record [8]. - The outlook for silver remains constructive for 2026, supported by industrial demand from solar panels and battery technologies, along with continued investment inflows [9]. - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about aluminum and copper, which face supply constraints amid rising demand [10].

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. government has escalated sanctions against Iran, urging American citizens to leave the country immediately, indicating a significant rise in regional conflict risk [3][4] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, marking a severe phase in the economic blockade against Iran [4] - Concerns have been raised that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting nearly one-third of global oil transportation, which could lead to oil prices rising by $10 to $20 per barrel if fully closed [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - Trump warned that a negative ruling from the Supreme Court regarding tariffs could result in actual compensation costs amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, potentially reaching "trillions" when including related investments [6][7] - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has sparked backlash, with former Fed chairs emphasizing the importance of central bank independence, which has led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in precious metal prices [8][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the geopolitical tensions and domestic policy concerns, gold and silver prices surged, with gold reaching $4,596.96 per ounce and silver at $85.55 per ounce [8] - Major bond investment firms have warned that challenges to the Fed's independence could undermine its credibility in combating inflation, introducing significant risks to financial markets [9] Group 4: Overall Impact - Trump's recent actions across various sectors have heightened global uncertainty and systemic risks, pushing the U.S. and its global partners into deeper turmoil and competition [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing renewed concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is impacting gold prices and investor sentiment towards precious metals [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and conflicts in the Middle East, are contributing to a heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman and ongoing legal issues involving current chairman Jerome Powell are adding to market volatility [2][3] - The trend of de-dollarization is seen as a long-term support for precious metals, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [2][3] Group 2: Price Movements and Predictions - Gold prices are currently in a high volatility state, with expectations of a wide price fluctuation in the short term [2] - Analysts from the World Gold Council indicate that gold prices have not yet reached overbought levels, with a significant resistance point at $4,770 per ounce [4] - Solomon Global forecasts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver $100 per ounce by the first half of 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability and demand for safe-haven assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings to 1,070.8 tons, reflecting a rise of 6.24 tons from the previous trading day, amid heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 12, spot gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of $4,629.93 per ounce before closing at $4,597.21, marking an increase of $87.87 or 1.95% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly regarding an investigation into Chairman Powell's statements about the Fed's renovation project [5]. - Silver also experienced a strong performance, hitting a record high of $84.62 per ounce, driven by similar market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data eased expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, limiting the upside potential for precious metals [6]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, leading to a consensus that a rate cut in January is unlikely, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year, with the first likely in June [6]. - Market reactions to upcoming inflation data could influence gold prices, with a hotter reading potentially exerting downward pressure, while a softer reading may support further price increases [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum, confirming a bullish trend, with the price maintaining an upward channel over the past month [7]. - The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, indicating increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI is in the overbought zone, which may limit short-term gains [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,625, with a successful breakout potentially leading to further price increases, while support is established at $4,400 [7][8].

【要闻速递】 匈牙利外长西雅尔多12日表示，若英国和法国向乌克兰派遣军队，将给北约带来与俄罗斯发生直接冲突 的严重风险。作为乌克兰的邻国，匈牙利存在被拖入战争的可能性。 欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯12日表示，如丹麦提出请求，欧盟可为格陵兰岛提供安全支持。他同 时警告，若美国以军事手段夺取格陵兰岛，将意味着北约"走向终结"。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1035附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1027.68元/克，涨 幅1.06%，最高触及1035.34元/克，最低下探1025.10元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 格陵兰岛自治政府12日发布声明，强调在任何情况下都无法接受美国接管。声明指出，格陵兰岛是丹麦 王国的一部分，也是北约的一部分，其防务应通过北约来实现。格陵兰岛自治政府将与丹麦一道，推动 在北约框架内开展防务事务。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约AU2602于2026年1月12日强势上行，日内最高触及1031.30元/克，收盘报1024.78元/克，涨 幅2.36%，创历史新高，受中东与俄乌地缘紧张及美联储降息预期升温（12月非 ...

花旗集团激进上调贵金属短期展望，在牛市情景下，预计未来3个月内金价将冲至5000美元/盎司，白银 达100美元/盎司。这一预测基于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺及美联储政策不确定性。与此同时，摩根 士丹利与摩根大通等华尔街投行亦维持长期看涨共识。 华尔街大行再掀贵金属看涨潮，花旗集团激进上调短期目标价，直指金价5000美元大关。 据花旗集团最新发布的报告，鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及市场对美联储独立性再次出现不确 定性，该行大幅上调了对贵金属的短期展望。包括Max Layton在内的分析师团队在电邮报告中表示，在 牛市情景下，将未来0-3个月的目标价从每盎司4200美元上调至5000美元，目标价则从每盎司62美元大 幅上调至100美元。 华尔街共识：涨势未尽 主要投行对黄金的长期看涨情绪已形成广泛共识。摩根士丹利在最新预测中，将2026年第四季度的金价 目标设定为4800美元，较此前2025年10月设定的4400美元预测有显著上调。该行指出，投资者不仅将黄 金视为通胀对冲工具，更将其作为观察央行政策与地缘政治风险的"晴雨表"。 摩根大通的预测则更为乐观。该行预计到2026年第四季度金价将达到5000美元，长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of WanGuo Gold Group (03939), driven by geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies, with gold prices reaching historic highs [1] Company Summary - WanGuo Gold Group's stock increased nearly 7% in early trading and has risen over 30% in the month [1] - As of the report, the stock price is at 10.09 HKD with a trading volume of 197 million HKD [1] - The company is expected to benefit from growth and profitability, particularly from its Jinling Mining operations [1] - The Solomon Gold Mine's processing plant has initiated a new construction plan with a capacity of 10 million tons per year, aiming to increase its processing scale from 3.5 million tons per year to 13.5 million tons per year by 2028, potentially producing 15 tons of gold annually [1] Industry Summary - International spot gold prices have historically surpassed 4600 USD per ounce, with Citigroup aggressively raising its short-term outlook for precious metals [1] - In a bullish scenario, gold prices are projected to reach 5000 USD per ounce and silver to 100 USD per ounce within the next three months [1] - Major Wall Street investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, maintain a long-term bullish consensus on precious metals [1]

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1月13日，受隔夜金价走强催化，黄金有色相关产品表现强势，截至9:45，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨 0.15%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨3.22%，其持仓股明牌珠宝涨停，山金国际、湖南白银、晓程科技均涨 超7%，万国黄金集团、潮宏基、白银有色等股纷纷走强，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.34%。 消息面上，上周前期美国公布的经济数据强弱均现，没有显著提振货币政策预期，周五晚间非农就业数 据降低1月份降息概率。美联储现任主席遭到调查，加剧美联储独立性担忧，推动贵金属价格偏多运 行。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 锦泰期货分析指出，美国2025年12月非农就业数据显著弱于预期，新增非农就业人数不及市场预测，叠 加前期数据下修，强化了市场对美联储2026年开启降息周期的定价。加上当前中东局势紧张、北极地区 军事部署导致地缘政治风险升级，市场避险情绪急剧升温。中长期看，美联储 ...