金十数据5月6日讯，路透研究所对律所财务状况的最新分析发现，2025年律所业务开局缓慢，但美国总 统特朗普的全球贸易战推动了3月的需求激增，帮助支撑了第一季度的业绩。报告显示，诉讼和交易工 作在本季度末出现了"大幅增长"，但这一增长不足以完全抵消律师生产力的下滑和1、2月份需求的不 振。报告警告称，特朗普的关税浪潮给律所带来的好处很可能是短暂的。贸易战对律所2025年下半年的 经济前景构成了"直接威胁"，因为在经济不稳定时期，对法律服务的需求通常会先扬后抑。 机构：贸易战让律所受益 但可能只是暂时的 ...

特朗普（资料图） 据环球网报道，针对美国方面多次表示已经和中方就关税问题进行对话，中国驻美国大使馆当天以发言 人答记者问的形式作出回应称，有关言论纯属混淆视听，"据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行 磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"中国人民大学国际关系学院教授表示，美国频繁释放中美关税谈判 的虚假消息，证明在第一回合的关税博弈中，美国实际上已不占上风。这说明中国坚定维护自身经济利 益，并与美国进行博弈的战略和政策是正确的。 特朗普目前正在与70多个国家进行关税谈判，通过释放"连中国都屈服"这个假消息，诱导其他国家赶快 屈服于美方提出的关税谈判条件，在一系列谈判当中取得主动权。 三是蒙骗国内的民众。根据最新的 报道，美国共有13个州通过法律途径抗议特朗普政府的关税政策，全美有50个州超60万人高举"住手"， 反对特朗普政府实施的关税措施、移民政策、削减公共开支等引发社会矛盾的举措。通过释放关税大战 已经缓和的信息，来缓解国内的抗议声浪，减轻自身压力。 美媒预计，一旦中国相信特朗普的"让步"并找美国沟通之后，他立刻会宣布"大胜"的消息。然后再对外 散播中国已经撑不下去了，主动来找美方沟通，借此提高价码。因为自始 ...

本周券商策略分析师普遍认为，节后A股"开门红"值得期待，整个5月市场可能会呈现"权重指数稳定，科技成长活跃"的格局。 华西策略李立峰团队称，五一假期期间，中美经贸缓和预期促使全球风险偏好回暖，人民币汇率快速升值并带动中国权益资产大 幅反弹，节后A股"开门红"值得期待。 结构上， AI+有望成为5月重要主线。一方面，海外厂商AI领域资本开支维持高增，国内科技产业也处于向上突破的关键节点，5 月AI领域事件催化仍多；另一方面，强调自立自强和应用导向，中长期国内AI产业链、AI应用发展均蕴藏巨大潜力。 中信策略裘翔团队称，关税战至今，全球主流风险资产价格基本都回到原点，表明"交易事实，而非预期"应该是贸易战之下应对 不确定性的第一原则；展望5月，"为签而签"可能成为海外叙事逻辑，预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主 题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓的主题型交易机会为主。 更多券商策略观点如下： | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 关税战至今,全球主流风险资产价格基本都 回到原点,表明"交易 ...

贸易战将扩展到娱乐产业 2025 年五一假期期间，全球风险资产延续修复行情，其中中国资产领涨 。 美股纳指累计上涨 3.05% ，恒生科技指数飙升 3.08% ， A50 期指 小幅上扬 1% ，离岸人民币兑美元升值至 7.2 关口 。 科技股引领全球反弹 。 微软财报超预期带动纳斯达克"科技七巨头"集体走强，半导体、云计算板块领涨。腾讯、阿里巴巴受益美科技股涨势，恒 生科技指数单日涨幅创三个月新高，短视频、跨境电商概念活跃。对于 A 股，业内人士认为明 日或高开后分化，看好银行、高速公路等红利资 产。 美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来 中方回应：正在评估 中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此， 中方正在进行评估。中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税战、贸易战是由美方单方发起的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错 误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动。 特朗普宣布对进口电影征收 100% 关税 美国总统特朗普于 5 月 5 日宣布， 将授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有进 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 把握 5 月回调窗口，重点布局互联网和 AI 应用 Capitalizing on the May Dip: Internet & AI Application Focus 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周，市场似乎淡化了关税影响，转而聚焦于美股科技股积极的业绩展望，这主要得益于微软和Meta持续增加其 2026财年的资本支出。受此提振，纳斯达克指数涨3.4%，带动恒生指数涨2.4%；相比之下，由于仅交易了前三天， 上证综指下跌0.5%，而创业板指则维持在平盘。我们一直认为，贸易战整体风险相对可控，其主要支撑在于新技术 所创造的需求有望缓解不断累积的债务压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese companies, suggesting that some are relocating production lines to the U.S., but the significance and implications of this trend are questioned [3][5]. Group 1: Production Line Relocation - Some Chinese companies, including low-tech manufacturers, are reportedly moving production lines to the U.S. in response to tariffs [3]. - The types of companies involved in this relocation are primarily those with low technological content, such as gift manufacturers and small electronic assembly plants [3]. - The article argues that this relocation is more about the elimination of outdated capacity rather than a significant shift in the industry [3]. Group 2: U.S. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. is shifting its export structure towards Russia and its acceptance of industrial transfers towards Southeast Asia, which does not pose a significant threat to China [5]. - Historical attempts by various U.S. administrations to bring global supply chains back to America have faced challenges, with companies like TSMC struggling to achieve profitability in U.S. operations [5][6]. - TSMC's Arizona plant has reported losses exceeding $3 billion, highlighting the difficulties of establishing manufacturing in the U.S. [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The article suggests that while some Chinese companies may consider relocating due to pressure, the long-term viability of such moves is questionable given the current state of U.S. manufacturing capabilities [8]. - The narrative of companies relocating may serve as a "negative example" to illustrate the complexities of the trade war between China and the U.S. [8].

美国关税炸弹将引爆：贸易战冲击波终于将传导到美国消费端，本周起数百亿美元商品新增关税将直接推高美国零售商品价格。 500万美国学生贷款借款人重启噩梦：特朗普终止持续五年多的联邦学贷暂停还款政策。午夜钟声敲响时，美国催收公司将立即恢复扣工资和截留退税还贷 款。 美国港口与货运业为大规模裁员潮做好准备：美国进口商为避关税砍订单→美国集装箱吞吐量暴跌→美国码头班次锐减→美国小型货运公司开始倒闭，接下 来的连锁反应是：美国仓储临时工和零售理货员将是下一波裁员受害者。 美国联邦裁员雪球越滚越大：DOGE 对联邦政府机构的"优化重组"已裁撤数千岗位，新一轮裁员将波及从美国航空邮政人员到美国农业部监察员的各个领 域。 美国廉价劳动力被迫转入地下：美国国土安全部和 ICE 移民局不仅抓捕无证的非法移民工人，还根据新的"窝藏罪"政策拘留其配偶、子女甚至房东、法官。 依赖此类劳动力的美国行业——农产品、酒店业、建筑业——正在经历员工流失与价格飙升的双重打击。 美国通胀+失业=滞胀陷阱正在成型：美国关税推高物价的同时，美国裁员潮削减家庭收入。美联储既不能印码头工人也不能印西红柿，因此降息也就无从 谈起，政策枷锁遭遇CPI飙升，按照 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first quarter reached 31 trillion yuan, approximately 60% of the United States' GDP of 53.22 trillion yuan [1][6] - Despite global economic challenges, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing last year's growth by 0.1 percentage points [6][13] Consumption and Investment - Consumer spending contributed 2.8 percentage points to economic growth, indicating strong market activity [8] - Industrial production also played a role, adding 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth [8] Export Performance - In March, China's export growth surged to 13.5%, driven by businesses rushing to ship goods before tariffs took effect [10] - The trade surplus with the U.S. reached 76.6 billion USD, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of Chinese businesses [10] Manufacturing and Industrial Growth - China's manufacturing sector is shifting from low-value products to high-value items like drones and solar panels, achieving a growth rate of 9.7% [13] - Investment data, excluding real estate, showed an 8.3% increase, indicating a robust industrial base [13] U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. GDP figure appears inflated, with underlying issues such as a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter contraction and rising inflation affecting consumer purchasing power [15][19] - The U.S. faces a crisis of hollowed-out industries and high debt levels, raising questions about the sustainability of its economic growth [21] Trade War Dynamics - The trade war initiated by the U.S. has led to a strategic economic confrontation, with China leveraging its large domestic market and comprehensive industrial chain [22][24] - China's consumer market saw a 5.6% growth in retail sales, supported by government incentives to stimulate consumption [22][24] Technological and Energy Transition - China is advancing in sectors like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, positioning itself as a leader in the global market [26] - The U.S. struggles with manufacturing challenges, as seen in Intel's budget overruns and slow construction progress in Ohio [26][28] Regional Trade Shifts - In response to U.S. trade barriers, China has increased exports to ASEAN countries at a rate three times faster than to the U.S. [28] - China's policy toolbox remains robust, with initiatives like rural revitalization and new infrastructure projects yet to be fully utilized [28]

近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一(5月5日)欧市早盘，现货黄金维持日内反弹走势，目前金价位于3265美元/盎司附近，日内上涨逾25 美元。归因于贸易不确定性和美联储决议前的仓位调整，美元重回跌势。黄金买家大举回归，金价目标 瞄准3300美元/盎司。作为传统避险资产的黄金价格也受到中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及俄罗斯和乌 克兰之间紧张局势的支撑。本交易日，投资者将聚焦美国4月ISM非制造业PMI，预计这一重量级将引 发市场大行情。美国4月ISM非制造业PMI将提供有关特朗普宣布关税后企业行为的更多见解。该数据 预计将进一步下滑，反映出在贸易政策不确定性的情况下，企业越来越谨慎。 基本面上，美国彭博社周一报道称，美国总统特朗普计划对所有海外制作的电影征收100%的关税，从 而升级了贸易战。特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social上写道："我授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程 序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。我们要让电影重新在美国拍摄！虽然，上 周五公布的非农等数据，整体好于预期，美国3月工厂订单月率也明显高于前值，显示经济仍显健康， 这减弱了此前公布的美国一 ...

Group 1 - Asian currencies experienced significant appreciation, negatively impacting exporters and putting pressure on stock markets, prompting central banks to intervene [1][3] - The New Taiwan Dollar saw its largest increase since 1988, leading to the biggest drop in Taiwan's benchmark stock index in nearly a month [1][3] - The offshore Renminbi reached its highest level in nearly six months as exporters repatriated dollar earnings [1][3] Group 2 - The Bloomberg index measuring Asian currencies recorded its largest increase since 2022, while an index for emerging market currency returns hit an all-time high [3] - The New Taiwan Dollar surged approximately 5%, driven by speculation that exporters and retailers were selling dollars amid expectations of further dollar depreciation [3] - Taiwan's monetary authorities intervened in the market, urging foreign investors and large exporters to delay dollar sales [3][4] Group 3 - Traders are closely monitoring potential further currency interventions, especially after the Hong Kong dollar tested the strong end of its trading range against the US dollar [4] - The appreciation of Asian currencies is also driven by investors withdrawing funds from the US dollar, amid concerns over Trump's tariffs potentially raising inflation and harming the economy [4] - Analysts suggest that due to the pressure on the US dollar and rising recession risks, the risk-reward profile for maintaining dollar deposits appears unfavorable for Asian exporters [4]