交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（11.17~11.21） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约下跌2.29%，周五收盘报21340元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存548000吨，较前周出现小幅 减少，SHFE周库存增8817吨至123716吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The former vice chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Zhou Yanli, emphasized the role of green insurance and insurance capital in mobilizing social capital for sustainable development in climate adaptation and resilience investments [1][3]. Group 1: Climate Adaptation and Investment Needs - China's latest Nationally Determined Contribution commits to building a climate-adaptive society by 2035, with 39 cities currently being tested for adaptation [1]. - The average annual funding requirement for climate mitigation actions from 2021 to 2030 is approximately 2 trillion yuan, while from 2021 to 2060, it is about 6.5 trillion yuan, with an annual average demand of 1.6 trillion yuan for climate adaptation [3]. Group 2: Role of Insurance Capital - Zhou Yanli stated that climate adaptation and resilience projects often have long investment cycles and complex risk factors, necessitating collaboration between government and social capital to share project risks and enhance feasibility and stability [3]. - The participation of social capital can foster market competition, stimulate market vitality, and promote technological innovation and cost reduction in related industries, thereby supporting the sustainable development of climate adaptation and resilience industries [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To address the substantial funding needs, it is crucial to improve the policy support system, develop investment plans for climate adaptation and resilience, and clarify phased development goals [3]. - Recommendations include enhancing fiscal and tax policies, optimizing funding costs and regulatory mechanisms, increasing supervision and evaluation of climate adaptation projects, and establishing a regular cross-departmental coordination mechanism [3].

Group 1 - The Chinese government is accelerating the development of green trade in response to global climate change, as outlined in the recent implementation opinions from the Ministry of Commerce [1] - The policy aims to enhance the green and low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises, expand the import and export of green low-carbon products and technologies, and create a favorable international environment for green trade [1] - This initiative provides clear direction and strong support for Chinese manufacturing enterprises to accelerate their green development [1] Group 2 - The implementation opinions emphasize promoting green design and production among foreign trade enterprises, encouraging the use of renewable energy, and reducing carbon emissions through equipment upgrades and process improvements [2] - Companies like Guangzhou Mona Lisa Bathroom Co., Ltd. have integrated low-carbon energy-saving technologies into their products, achieving a 60% reduction in electricity consumption with innovative designs [2] - Shandong Hengli Textile Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on developing green functional products using recycled materials and advanced energy-efficient production techniques, significantly reducing energy consumption and water usage [2][3] Group 3 - The opinions also highlight the need to enhance third-party green low-carbon service capabilities and establish a public service platform for green trade [4] - Organizations like the China Electromechanical Products Import and Export Chamber are working on ESG system construction and providing various services to support enterprises in their green transformation [4] - Midea Group has developed a product carbon footprint management platform, recognized by certification bodies, to support the promotion of green products in global markets [4] Group 4 - The release of the implementation opinions presents new opportunities for the development of green trade in China, with enterprises expected to accelerate their green transformation through continuous innovation and enhancement of green production and service capabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has entered a new phase as the storage sector experiences rapid growth, prompting leading companies like Longi Green Energy to diversify into energy storage [1][2]. Group 1: Longi Green Energy's Strategic Shift - Longi Green Energy plans to acquire Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd., marking its entry into the electrochemical energy storage sector [1]. - Previously, Longi Green Energy focused on hydrogen energy, establishing a subsidiary for hydrogen production in March 2021, but has now shifted its strategy due to the lack of significant progress in hydrogen business [6][9]. - The company's stock has rebounded significantly, with a nearly 20% increase year-to-date and over 60% since late June [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand - Global demand for energy storage is expected to surge, with a projected 30% increase in battery shipments by 2026, reaching approximately 770 GWh [2]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its lithium market outlook from surplus to shortage, raising its 2026 lithium price forecast from 70,000 RMB/ton to 90,000 RMB/ton, with current prices exceeding 100,000 RMB/ton [2]. - The energy storage market is anticipated to grow significantly, particularly in China, which is expected to have 1,473 operational energy storage stations by the end of 2024, with a total installed capacity of 62.13 GW/141.37 GWh [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The energy storage sector is highly competitive, with established players like CATL, BYD, and Sungrow leading the market [12]. - Longi Green Energy's acquisition of Jingkong Energy is seen as a strategic move to quickly enter the energy storage market amid increasing competition and price wars [13]. - Jingkong Energy, founded in 2015, has a production capacity of 31 GWh and ranks third in global energy storage system shipments [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential of Baichuan Changyin in the molten salt energy storage sector, highlighting its strategic positioning in the renewable energy market and its successful transition from traditional biogas operations to innovative energy solutions [5][6][20]. Group 1: Company Overview - Baichuan Changyin, established in 2009, operates in three main sectors: biogas utilization, mobile energy storage heating, and waste resource recovery [7]. - The company has shifted focus to overseas markets to optimize profitability, leveraging high market pricing in regions like Colombia and Malaysia [7][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Baichuan achieved revenue of 205 million CNY, with biogas contributing 98 million CNY, accounting for nearly 48% of total revenue [7]. - The company's overseas revenue surged from 1.27 million CNY in 2023 to 14.33 million CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 75.86% and 56.15%, significantly higher than the overall company average of around 20% [10][11]. Group 3: Business Transformation - The mobile energy storage heating business, which utilizes self-developed mobile storage vehicles, has become a key driver for cost reduction and efficiency improvement [12]. - By Q3 2025, Baichuan had deployed 338 mobile storage vehicles, generating revenue of 57.23 million CNY, a 39.49% increase year-on-year, with gross profit soaring by 628% [13][14]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The molten salt storage technology, which allows for safe and cost-effective thermal energy management, is central to Baichuan's operations and has recently entered commercial application [16][17]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with expenditures reaching 7.92 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a 99.13% increase, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [17]. Group 5: Market Positioning - Baichuan is also involved in the solar thermal power sector, focusing on the development of key equipment like solar reflectors, with an annual production capacity of 10 million square meters [18]. - The solar thermal industry is transitioning from demonstration to large-scale commercialization, with Baichuan positioned to capitalize on this growth through its strategic partnerships and project developments [19][20].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 2025 钢铁碳配额新政发布，影响几何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年开始，钢铁企业的配额将与该企业的碳排放强度挂钩。通过计算代表行业碳排放平均水 平的行业平衡值（BP），根据钢企碳排放强度（X）与 BP 的大小，将钢企分为三个档次。1） 碳排放强度小于行业平衡值 20%以上的企业（X≤80%BP）为优秀梯度，这些碳排放水平领先 行业的钢企将获得 1.03 倍的配额。2）碳排放强度与行业平衡值差距在 20%以内的企业为中等 梯度（80%BP<X<120%BP），将获得 1+15%[(BP-X)/BP]倍的配额。3）碳排放强度大于行业平 衡值 20%的企业（X≥120%BP）为落后梯度，排放水平落后行业的企业将获得 0.97 倍配额。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights China's significant contributions to global sustainable development through its ecological civilization practices, which serve as a model for other countries [1][2][3] Group 1: China's Achievements in Environmental Protection - Over the past decade, China has made remarkable progress in environmental protection, instilling confidence in its future efforts and demonstrating a positive impact on global sustainable development [2] - China actively promotes international environmental agreements, showcasing its leadership in global climate negotiations and commitment to major climate goals [2][3] Group 2: International Cooperation and Initiatives - China collaborates with developing countries on various projects aimed at ecological modernization, such as the "Bangkok Clean Air" project and solar energy initiatives in Mongolia [3][4] - The country has signed 55 cooperation memorandums with 43 developing nations, emphasizing South-South cooperation in addressing climate change and enhancing climate resilience [4] Group 3: Leadership in Biodiversity and Climate Change - As the chair of the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, China successfully facilitated the "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework," showcasing its leadership in biodiversity conservation [3] - China's continuous innovation in environmental technology and its commitment to sharing these advancements internationally are crucial for supporting developing countries in their green transitions [3]

Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the investment landscape in new materials, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing [9][11][16]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with a focus on various materials and technologies such as silicon wafers, photolithography, and advanced packaging [4][6]. - Key players in the semiconductor space include ASML, TSMC, and SMIC, which are pivotal for technological advancements and market growth [6]. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector, particularly lithium batteries and hydrogen energy, is identified as a significant investment opportunity, driven by the global push for sustainability [4][5]. - Innovations in battery technology, such as solid-state batteries and silicon-based anodes, are crucial for enhancing energy storage solutions [4]. New Materials - The article discusses the growing demand for new materials, including advanced composites and specialty chemicals, which are essential for various applications across industries [5][6]. - The focus on carbon neutrality and lightweight materials is driving innovation and investment in this sector [6]. Investment Strategies - Different stages of investment are outlined, from seed rounds with high risks to pre-IPO stages with lower risks and higher returns, emphasizing the need for thorough due diligence at each stage [8]. - The importance of assessing team capabilities, market potential, and financial health is stressed for making informed investment decisions [8].

Macro Economic Insights - The report emphasizes the need to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods to further promote consumption, as discussed in the macroeconomic weekly report [3] - The State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang focused on implementing policies to expand new consumption increments, highlighting the importance of artificial intelligence in developing new products and value-added services [3] Industry Insights - The upcoming implementation of the National VII emission standards is expected to create investment opportunities in exhaust after-treatment systems, with the market size projected to exceed 100 billion yuan [16][18] - The report notes that the demand for AI continues to validate, leading to an increase in computing power requirements, particularly in the technology sector [27] - The food and beverage industry is anticipated to see growth driven by a turning point in dairy supply and demand, with three major opportunities identified [27] - The coal industry is experiencing price stability, with the new long-term contracts for thermal coal remaining unchanged, indicating a steady pricing logic [22][24] Company-Specific Insights - The report highlights that Aikolan, which specializes in exhaust after-treatment products, is well-positioned to benefit from the National VII standards due to its existing technology and customer base [19] - The report mentions that the gaming sector is witnessing a surge in AI applications, with companies like Kyeong Network and Perfect World expected to benefit from this trend [29] - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are recommended due to their favorable outlook for the upcoming year, driven by improved asset management and a stable interest rate environment [45][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing distributed energy and integrated energy services to enhance the efficiency and cleanliness of energy consumption, aligning with the goals of carbon neutrality [1] Group 1: Training Overview - The training titled "Distributed Energy Planner (Integrated Energy Service Direction)" is organized to address the shortage of professionals skilled in energy planning, conversion, and intelligent control, which is crucial for the transition to integrated energy services [1] - The training will be conducted online from December 10 to December 13, 2025 [2] - The training is organized by the Human Resources and Social Security Department's Social Security Capacity Building Center and hosted by China Energy News [2] Group 2: Target Audience - The training targets various stakeholders including provincial and municipal power companies, energy groups, and enterprises involved in renewable energy such as wind, solar, and storage [2] - It also includes energy service companies, equipment manufacturers, and investment firms focused on integrated energy services [2] Group 3: Course Outline - The course covers a comprehensive overview of integrated energy services, including its development trends and project planning [3] - It includes modules on the application of distributed photovoltaic projects, natural gas distributed energy, wind energy, hydrogen energy, and new energy storage systems within integrated energy services [4] - The training also addresses near-zero carbon factory and park construction evaluation, focusing on energy-saving and carbon reduction methods [4] Group 4: Training Costs - The training fee is set at 3,600 yuan per person, which includes training materials and certification costs [4]