2025.04. 14 本文字数：2482，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 美方近日宣布豁免部分产品"对等关税"。 商务部新闻发言人对此表示，美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半 导体制造设备、集成电路等部分产品的"对等关税"，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。 多位资深科技分析师对第一财经记者表示，此次豁免，受益最深的是美国科技巨头，苹果公司及其整 个供应链和相关供应商是赢家，整个行业的黑天鹅事件终于消散。 对于特朗普政府出台的所谓"对等关税"，日本国立政策研究大学院大学经济学教授邢予青在接受第一 财经记者专访时表示，美方出具的计算"对等关税"的公式是掠夺式的强盗逻辑，特朗普政府及其经贸 官员都没有理解一个简单事实：高精尖技术产品，考虑到其规模和技术复杂性，在短期之内根本找不 到替代生产商。 邢予青教授研究全球价值链十余年，长期关注跨国公司的海外投资和国际贸易，曾经为国际货币基金 组织、亚洲开发银行以及日本协力集团提供政策咨询。 邢予青： 这个公式就是掠夺性的，且含义非常简单，其含义是，任何对美国有贸易盈余的国家，其 贸易盈余的一半必须归美国，这是一种强盗逻辑。那些系数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China due to the U.S. government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," which are deemed excessive and unilateral, undermining international trade order [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Trade - The U.S. frequent changes in tariff measures have left many foreign trade enterprises in confusion, significantly suppressing foreign trade transactions and leading to a notable downward effect on global trade scale [2][17]. - The "tariff stick" wielded by the U.S. has become a major source of uncertainty in the global foreign trade market, overshadowing the growth prospects of global trade [2][17]. - The current market panic, exacerbated by U.S. tariff measures and protectionist actions, has led to a rise in the U.S. market panic index to levels seen in spring 2020, negatively impacting consumer confidence and market demand [2][17]. Group 2: Nature of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China are no longer reciprocal in nature, with rates exceeding 50% and in some cases over 100%, categorizing them as "extortionate tariffs" that severely hinder normal trade operations [4][6]. - The high tariff levels have rendered international trade nearly impossible for Chinese foreign trade enterprises, which operate in a highly competitive environment with limited profit margins [4][6]. Group 3: China's Response Strategy - China has adopted a "combination punch" strategy involving "increased tariffs + demand restrictions + policy coordination" to counter U.S. measures, achieving some effectiveness [7][16]. - Demand-side restrictions have been implemented, such as reducing the import quota for U.S. films and issuing travel warnings for studying and tourism in the U.S., targeting the service trade sector where the U.S. has a significant surplus [7][16]. - A policy matrix focusing on "list control + qualification review + market access restrictions" has been established to ensure precision and sustainability in China's countermeasures against the U.S. [7][16]. Group 4: Affected Industries - The sectors most impacted by the tariffs include machinery and electronics, textiles and apparel, furniture and toys, metals and products, transportation equipment, personal computers, and chemicals, with significant export values reported for each category [5][6]. - The anticipated impact on U.S.-China trade is expected to be substantial, particularly in the second and third quarters of 2025, affecting production and trade chains, and potentially leading to negative consequences for employment and economic growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive market reactions in Asia and the U.S. following the announcement of tariff exemptions on certain goods by the U.S. government, which alleviated market fears and led to optimistic forecasts for Chinese assets [1][3][7]. Market Reactions - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 2% and the KOSPI gaining over 1% [1][3]. - U.S. stock index futures also opened positively, with Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.5% [1][3]. - The announcement of tariff exemptions on electronics such as smartphones and computers contributed to the market's relief [3]. U.S. Treasury Market - Japan's statement regarding not using its U.S. Treasury holdings as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations helped ease tensions in the U.S. bond market [4]. - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a pullback, leading to the largest increase in long-term bond yields since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [5]. Outlook on Chinese Assets - Several brokerage firms expressed optimism regarding the future performance of Chinese assets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, following the easing of tariff impacts [7]. - Analysts from various firms, including招商证券 and中信证券, anticipate that policy measures will support the market, with a focus on consumption and technology sectors [7]. -民生证券 noted that the implementation of the tariff exemption guidelines could lead to earnings per share (EPS) recovery in relevant sectors [8]. Fund Flows - Data from Wind indicated that from April 7 to April 11, over 900 stock ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately 170 billion yuan, marking the highest weekly inflow of the year [1][8].

Group 1 - The article highlights the irony of the Trump Tower souvenir shop still selling products labeled "Made in China," despite the Trump administration's high tariffs on Chinese goods [2][4] - Price tags in the shop are deliberately placed over the "Made in China" labels, indicating a possible attempt to obscure the origin of the products [4] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. decision to exempt certain products from "reciprocal tariffs," indicating that this is a small step towards correcting the unilateral tariff approach [9] - The Ministry emphasized that the "reciprocal tariffs" introduced on April 2 have not resolved any issues for the U.S. and have instead disrupted international trade order and harmed both economies [9] Group 3 - China and the EU have begun negotiations regarding electric vehicle pricing, with a focus on establishing a "minimum import price" mechanism to replace existing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [11][14] - This negotiation marks a significant easing of trade tensions that have persisted for nearly six months, potentially reshaping the global landscape for the electric vehicle industry [14] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics indicating that the social financing scale grew by 8.4% year-on-year as of the end of March, with RMB loans increasing by 7.4% [16] - The broad money supply (M2) also showed a stable growth of 7.0%, reflecting continued strong support for the real economy [16]

2025.04. 14 【今日推荐】 美国豁免部分产品"对等关税"，商务部：这是美方修正单边"对等关税"错误做法的一小步 美国海关与边境保护局11日晚宣布，美国联邦政府已同意对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品免除 所谓"对等关税"。4月13日，商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的"对等关税"答记者问时表示， 中方正在对有关影响进行评估。发言人称，我们注意到，这是继美方4月10日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征 收高额"对等关税"以来，对相关政策做出的第二次调整。应该说，这是美方修正单边"对等关税"错误 做法的一小步。 一季度社融等多项金融数据公布 央行数据显示，一季度人民币存款增加12.99万亿元。一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元。3月末， 广义货币(M2)余额326.06万亿元，同比增长7%。狭义货币(M1)余额113.49万亿元,同比增长1.6%。 初步统计，2025年一季度社会融资规模增量累计为15.18万亿元，比上年同期多2.37万亿元。从央 行获得的最新数据显示，3月份企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.30%，比上年同期低 约45个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期 ...

美国关税政策仍是影响全球市场的重要因素。 今日，亚太主要市场高开，日经225指数开盘涨1.13%，韩国KOSPI指数涨0.9%。此外，美股主要股指期货亦走高，金价则短线走低。 当地时间4月11日深夜，美国海关与边境保护局发布公告称，智能手机、路由器以及部分电脑和笔记本等产品将不再被纳入此前针对中国进口商品实施的125%所 谓"对等关税"范围内。 亚太市场高开 今日早盘，亚太主要市场高开。日经225指数开盘涨1.13%，截至发稿，涨幅扩大至2%以上。 | 日经 225 | | --- | | N225 | | 34317.42 今开 34006.37 最高 34325.59 最低 33959.48 | | 金额 -- 振幅 1.09% 2 18% 731 84 芯里 | | 昨收 33585.58 52周高42426.77 52周低30792.74 | | 相关基金 日经 ETF 1.013 -1.27% 跟踪误差 ⑦ 0.66% > | | 分时 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多, <0> | | 均价:34186.46 最新:34317.42 731.84 2.18% | | 34325.59 2.20% | ...

特朗普还是不得不选择了妥协让步。 据新华社报道，美国政府相关网络平台11日晚悄然发布信息，对智能手机、笔记本电 脑、芯片等电子产品豁免所谓"对等关税"。 在此之前，科技公司才经历了"高税临头"的惊魂一周——苹果紧急包机从印度空运1 5 0万部、 重达6 0 0吨的手机回美国，任天堂推迟了Swit c h 2在美国的新品上线，戴尔、微软和联想纷纷 督促供应商尽快发货到美国，尤其是3 0 0 0美元以上的高端产品"能发多少就多少"，三星考虑 到涨价影响已经向部分供应商砍单。 欧洲的芯片厂商，虽然还在关税豁免的范畴，但已经笼罩在特朗普关税大棒的阴影之下。阿斯 麦CEO傅恪礼在4月3日就直言，地缘政治紧张局势正在损害创新，这些关税或将扰乱整个世 界的贸易流动。 不可否认，电子信息产业早已深度嵌入全球产业大分工，"对等关税"注定是一场没有赢家的战 争。 作 者丨赖镇桃 编 辑丨和佳 图 源丨图虫 欧洲不少半导体厂商，主要市场都在中国和美国 ，已经提前对关税大棒感到紧张。英飞凌首 席财务官Sv e n Sc h n e i d e r在2月份就表示，特朗普政府的关税带来了不确定性，特别是引发反 击措施的时候，关税和反制关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Customs announced a waiver on certain goods from "reciprocal tariffs," which is generally seen as a positive development for the tech industry, particularly for companies like Apple and Dell [1][7]. Group 1: Waiver Announcement - The waiver covers 20 product categories, including semiconductors, communication devices, smartphones, and display modules, effective retroactively from April 5, 2024 [6]. - The estimated value of the exempted products is around $100 billion, representing approximately 23% of U.S. imports from China in this category [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts view the announcement as optimistic, providing temporary relief to major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, despite ongoing uncertainties regarding the "reciprocal tariffs" [7]. - The waiver is expected to alleviate some export pressures for China, as the tariff rate has reached 125% [7]. Group 3: Future Uncertainties - President Trump indicated that further details regarding the semiconductor tariff exemptions would be provided soon, suggesting potential changes in the future [3][9]. - A new national security trade investigation into semiconductors may lead to additional tariffs, indicating that the waiver does not eliminate the risk of future trade barriers [4][9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Experts suggest that the tariff policy has reached a critical point, with concerns that continued tariffs could trigger a global financial crisis [8]. - The current situation reflects significant domestic and international pressures on U.S. trade policy, leading to a potential shift in strategy by the Trump administration [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the exemption of tariffs on electronic products reflects a shift from reciprocal tariffs to national security tariffs [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, emphasizes the importance of national security in trade policy decisions [1] - This trend may impact the pricing and availability of electronic products in the U.S. market [1] - The shift could lead to further scrutiny of imports based on national security concerns rather than purely economic factors [1]

我们注意到，这是继美方4月10日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额"对等关税"以来，对相关政策做出的第二次调整。应该说， 这是美方修正 单边"对等关税"错误做法的一小步。 今天（13日），商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的"对等关税"答记者问。 商务部新闻发言人表示， 美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半导体制造设备、集成电路等部分产品 的"对等关税"，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。 来源：央视新闻 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 以一纸行政令出台所谓"对等关税"，不仅违背基本的经济规律和市场规律，也是对国家间互补合作和供需关系的无视。"对等关税"自4月2 日推出以来， 不仅没有解决美自身任何问题，反而严重破坏国际经贸秩序，严重干扰企业正常生产经营和人民生活消费，损人不利己。 中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的。贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国有句古话，"解铃还须系铃人"。我们敦促美方正视国际 社会和国内各方理性声音，在纠错方面迈出一大步，彻底取消"对等关税"的错误做法，回到相互尊重，通过平等对话解决分歧的正确道路 上来。 ...