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青岛啤酒(600600):销量恢复增长 关注旺季表现
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:35
投资要点: 成本红利延续,盈利能力同比优化。根据公司公告,测算2025Q1 公司吨酒成本为2696.3 元/吨,同比下 降2.6%,主因去年同期使用了部分高价麦芽,以及今年麦芽价格进一步下降。2025Q1 公司毛利率为 41.64%, 同比提升1.2pct 。费用端, 2025Q1 公司销售/管理/ 研发费用率分别为12.53%/3.2%/0.17%,分 别同比-0.29/-0.2/基本持平。费用率优化预计一方面是公司优化了费用投放方式,另一方面来自于销量 表现回暖后规模效应增强。2025Q1 公司归母净利率为16.37%,同比提升0.64pct。净利率提升幅度小于 毛利率,主因2025Q1 公允价值变动收益减少,以及利息收入减少等因素所致。 股价表现的催化剂:餐饮消费改善,产品提价。 核心假设风险:中高端竞争加剧,原材料成本超预期上涨。 事件:公司发布2025 年一季报,根据公司公告,2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入104.46 亿,同比增长 2.9%,归母净利润17.1 亿,同比增长7.08%,扣非净利润16.03 亿,同比增长5.9%,公司业绩符合预 期。 投资评级与估值:维持盈利预测,预测2025~2 ...
酒鬼酒2024年营收同比腰斩,净利润创十年新低
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-04-29 01:57
Core Viewpoint - The company, JiuGuiJiu, reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, facing severe challenges in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 49.7% year-on-year to 1.423 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 97.72% to 12.49 million yuan, marking the lowest profit since 2015 [1]. - The high-end product, Neican, saw a dramatic sales drop of 67.06%, generating only 235 million yuan, down from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 [2]. - The company experienced a slight profit of 12.49 million yuan for the year, following losses in the third and fourth quarters of 64.53 million yuan and 43.99 million yuan, respectively [2]. Product Performance - The core product, Neican, accounted for only 16.55% of total revenue in 2024, a sharp decline from 25% [2]. - The mid-range product line also faced challenges, with the average price per ton dropping by 5.8% [3]. - The low-end product, Xiangquan, experienced a 7.64% growth, but its gross margin was significantly lower at 56.35% compared to the overall company margin of 71.4% [3]. Market Dynamics - The number of distributors decreased from 1,774 in 2023 to 1,336 in 2024, reversing the growth trend of the previous two years [3]. - The concentration of sales among the top five customers declined, with their share dropping to 26.01% in 2024 from 34.84% in 2023 [3]. Cost Structure - Despite a significant drop in revenue, sales expenses only decreased by 32.96%, leading to an increase in the expense ratio from 32.22% to 42.95% [3]. - Advertising and market service expenses accounted for 71% of total costs, with a notable decline in the return on promotional spending [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company initiated a marketing reform and promotional cost restructuring to enhance market presence and consumer engagement [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a profit of 31.71 million yuan, indicating a potential recovery [5]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure by reducing SKUs by 50% and focusing on high-quality sales and channel management [6]. Industry Context - In 2024, the total production of major liquor companies in China was 4.145 million kiloliters, a decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.384 billion yuan [7].
迎驾贡酒(603198):省外节奏拖累,产品结构持续优化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 01:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion RMB, down 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 830 million RMB, down 9.5% year-on-year, indicating a decline in performance compared to market expectations [2]. - The revenue structure shows that the underperformance is mainly due to low-priced products and challenges in expanding outside the province [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 73.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.9 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 13.4% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 20.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, and the net profit was 8.3 billion RMB, down 9.5% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - By product, the revenue for mid-to-high-end and regular liquor in 2024 was 57.1 billion RMB and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.5% [3]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q1 2025 was 17.2 billion RMB, down 8.6% year-on-year, while regular liquor revenue fell by 32.1% [3]. - Regionally, the company reported revenues of 50.9 billion RMB from within the province and 19.1 billion RMB from outside the province in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [3]. Financial Quality - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.5 percentage points to 35.3%, with a gross margin increase of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 40.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.5 percentage points [4]. - The company is focusing on marketing for its cave-aged series, indicating a sustained upward potential in product structure [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 10% and 14%, respectively, with expected revenues growing by 3.4% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.72 billion RMB, 2.90 billion RMB, and 3.26 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.40 RMB, 3.62 RMB, and 4.07 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.4, 13.5, and 12.0 [5].
克明食品一季度净利润同比增长75.72% 经营战略和成本控制取得成效
克明食品通过优化产品结构,减少了低毛利产品的销售,集中资源发展高附加值、品牌影响力更强的核 心产品线。这一策略使得公司在面对市场竞争和成本压力时,能够保持较强的盈利能力,毛利率得到了 有效提升。高附加值产品不仅在市场上更具竞争力,而且能够为公司带来更高的利润空间,从而推动净 利润的大幅增长。 (编辑 张明富) 克明食品2025年第一季度实现营业总收入11.21亿元,较上年同期有所下降,但净利润却实现了显著增 长。这一变化表明,公司在优化产品结构和控制成本方面的努力取得了显著成效,使得公司在营收规模 略有下降的情况下,净利润依然实现了大幅增长。 此外,公司核心产品在市场中表现强劲,尤其是高附加值产品的销售增长显著。这些产品不仅提升了公 司的整体毛利率,还增强了公司在市场中的竞争力。通过持续的产品创新和品牌建设,克明食品成功推 出了多款受消费者欢迎的新产品,进一步巩固了其在市场中的领先地位。 本报讯 (记者何文英)4月28日晚,陈克明食品股份有限公司(以下简称"克明食品")发布2025年一季 报。报告期内,公司实现了归属于上市公司股东的净利润8578.68万元,较上年同期大幅增长75.72%。 这一成绩不仅体现了 ...
金固股份20250427
2025-04-27 15:11
金固股份 20250427 摘要 • 2024 年零部件产品销量同比增长 15%至约 1,100 万只,汽车零部件制造 业毛利率提升 3.14%至 16.17%,主要受益于高毛利的阿凡达低碳车轮销 量增长,抵消了低毛利备胎传统产品因合资品牌汽车销量下降带来的不利 影响。原材料钢材价格同比下降 8.38%导致部分产品售价降低,营业收入 与去年同期持平。 • 2024 年公司归属上市公司股东扣非净利润同比增长约 107%至 1,600 万 元,主要得益于阿凡达低碳车轮销量增加及产品结构优化。但子公司杭州 金固阿凡达引入战略投资人并存在业绩承诺,计提或有财务费用约 900 万 元,对归属上市股东净利润产生影响。 • 2025 年一季度营收同比增长 8.48%至 8.87 亿元,尽管钢材价格同比下 降 13%导致部分产品售价降低,且低毛利备胎产品销量减少,但高单价、 高毛利的阿凡达低碳车轮销量显著提升,推动营收逆势增长。计提或有财 务费用约 2,300 余万元,剔除后一季度净利润预计超过 3,000 万元,同比 增长约 210%。 • 公司计划加大阿凡达低碳车轮产能布局,已在阜阳、合肥、南宁及泰国新 建产能,总量约 ...
博雅生物(300294):2024年报点评:内生外延扩展规模,产品结构持续优化
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding its plasma collection stations through both organic growth and acquisitions, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9]. - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion in 2024, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion in 2024, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the upcoming years have been adjusted, with 2025 EPS projected at RMB 1.16 and 2026 EPS at RMB 1.33, while a new forecast for 2027 EPS is set at RMB 1.50 [1][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with plasma collection volume projected to reach 630.6 tons in 2024, reflecting a 10.4% increase [1][9]. - The financial outlook includes a projected net profit of RMB 585 million for 2025, with a net profit margin expected to improve over the years [1][9].
宝钢股份:2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:Q1盈利明显改善,产品结构持续优化-20250427
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-27 05:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.64 CNY per share [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 6.60% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion CNY, down 38.36% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.43 billion CNY [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's steel sales volume was 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while the average product price was 4,507 CNY per ton, down 6.89% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 improved to 7.22%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 CNY per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion CNY, with an overall annual distribution of 4.52 billion CNY, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing its product structure, with a sales volume of high-end products increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 52.24 million tons of steel in 2025, representing a 1.3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in international expansion, with export sales reaching 6.07 million tons in 2024, up 3.9% year-on-year [3].
宝钢股份(600019):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:Q1盈利明显改善,产品结构持续优化
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-27 04:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant improvement in Q1 profitability, with a continuous optimization of product structure [1]. - Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in net profit [1][2]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and international expansion, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 72.880 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.434 billion yuan [1][2]. Sales and Margins - Steel sales in 2024 were 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year. The company aims to sell 52.24 million tons in 2025, a 1.3% increase [2]. - The average product price in 2024 was 4,507 yuan/ton, down 6.89% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 7.22% in Q1 2025, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion yuan, with an overall payout of 4.516 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a focus on high-strength steel and silicon steel products, which are gaining market share [3]. - Key projects are progressing, including the establishment of high-end steel production capacities [3]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with a notable increase in export volumes [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.830 billion yuan, 11.122 billion yuan, and 12.427 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4][5].
泸州老窖全品系、全国范围停货,“保价护盘”新常态?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-26 07:39
文丨酒食汇团队 4月24日,有市场消息称:今天起,泸州老窖公司全国全品系停止订单接收,停止发货,至端午节前全国各公司(国窖、特曲、怀旧丶窖龄、大成浓香) 全面清理价格、渠道和政策,保证消费者体验感,保护渠道服务者利益。 全品系、全国范围停货,泸州老窖挺价决心 在白酒行业淡季停货属于"常规操作",而在行业TOP5酒企中,泸州老窖更是以停货频率高而被行业熟知,但如这次全品系产品停货操作并不多见,上一 次泸州老窖全品系停货还是在2023年。此举也彰显出泸州老窖对渠道问题进行系统性治理的坚定决心。 白酒的价格动荡会动摇市场的信心,泸州老窖此次停货,正是以"休克疗法"阻断低价倾销,为渠道库存去化争取时间,更为后续价格体系重塑铺路。对于 今年面临挑战的酒商和终端而言,厂家主动停货控量,可以较好的缓解资金压力,更主动地去与厂家配合维护产品的价格体系。 值得注意的是,泸州老窖此次停货选择在端午节消费旺季前夕完成调整,既是对"淡季控货、旺季放量"行业规律的精准把握,亦是对市场信心的强势宣 示。正如其经销商大会上所言:要深刻认识"无利润无渠道",坚决实施厂商一体行动。此次全国范围、全品系停货,由此也被解读为泸州老窖用实际行动 去 ...
【妙可蓝多(600882.SH)】降本增效带动利润显著改善,新品表现值得期待——2025年一季报点评(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-22 08:55
本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件: 妙可蓝多25Q1实现营业收入12.3亿元,同比+6.3%(调整后);归母净利润0.8亿元,同比+114.9%(调整 后);扣非归母净利润0.6亿元,同比+110.2%。 并表后奶酪业务收入同比增加明显 1)分产品看:25Q1奶酪/液态奶/贸易收入分别为10.30/0.95/1.01亿元,和蒙牛奶酪并表前的24Q1各业务收 入分别为7.85/0.81/0.82亿元。2)分渠道看:25Q1经销/直营/贸易收入分别为9.59/1.65/1.01亿元,并表前 的24Q1各渠道收入分别为7.35/1.31/0.82亿元。3)分地区看:25Q1北区/中区/南区收入分别为4.64/5.14/ 2.48亿元,并表前的24Q1各地区收入分别为3.74/3.87/1.87亿元。截 ...