长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：逸修1 来源：雪球 资本配置很考验CEO和CFO的能力，我很早以前对这块也没有过多思考，近些年的经历逐步意识 到重要性和理清楚里面的逻辑 该不该做回购分红应该是没有统一答案的，要看公司的经营状况和估值，但怎么去决策应该是有 一些客观标准的 一、资本配置 有四个方向： 1、经营业务 第一优先级，分深耕老业务、拓展新业务，前者是优先中的优先 2、投资（看企业类型和地位） 当核心业务不需再做过多投入就可状况，新业务又没啥机会时，可以考虑投资 但真投外部公司的前提还是自身能对有一些协同或赋能，不然可能不如把钱分给股东，股东自己 去投资 所以适合走这条路的企业是流量或生态型的平台，或处于产业链的链主环节的制造企业 回购分红的性价比和估值、机会成本、股息税有关： 比如一个公司在20倍的时候全年利润拿来回 购，相当于一年减少5%股本，相当于eps增长5.26%；如全年利润拿来分红，股息税为零，相当于 5%收益 但 是 你 拿 到 钱 后 可 去 投 其 它 收 益 更 高 的 机 会 ， 比 如 你 能 找 到 10% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price adjusted to HKD 89.00 from the previous HKD 94.00, indicating a potential upside of 43.1% from the current price of HKD 62.20 [3][8][11]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth remains resilient across various markets, with year-on-year increases of +23% in Hong Kong, +20% in Mainland China, +15% in Thailand, +15% in Singapore, +10% in Malaysia, and +18% in other markets, contributing to an overall expected NBV growth of 14% for 2025 [2][8]. - AIA has announced a new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 6.605 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.60 [8][9]. Financial Performance - The total market capitalization of AIA Group is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The company reported a total NBV of USD 4.712 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate in the second half of 2024 is expected to slow down [7][8]. - The operating return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating strong financial health [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range, suggesting significant upside potential [8][11]. - The report highlights that the dividend per share is expected to increase by 10% to USD 1.31, with an annual dividend yield of 3.1% [7][8]. - The adjusted target price reflects a valuation based on relative and appraisal methods, with the potential for further upward adjustments as shareholder returns and value growth progress [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11][12]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth shows resilience, with a projected increase of 14% year-on-year for 2025, despite adjustments in economic assumptions due to declining long-term interest rates in mainland China [2][8]. - A new share buyback plan of US$1.6 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's target price is adjusted to HKD 89.00, reflecting a potential upside of 43.1% from the current share price of HKD 62.20 [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The NBV growth rates for various markets are as follows: Hong Kong +23%, mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other markets +18% [2]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to US$6.605 billion in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach US$0.60 [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder return rate is expected to reach 6% in 2025, combining dividends and share buybacks [7][8]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year to US$1.31, with an annual dividend of US$1.75, reflecting a 9% increase [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range [8][11]. - The adjusted target price corresponds to a FY25E P/EV of 1.60x, indicating significant upside potential [11][12].

作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 花无百日红，股无千日好！ 过去两年，称霸全球的美股，现在正陷入连日的大跌状态。 周一晚，纳指一度跌至17000点附近，回撤幅度15%，进入技术性调整区间，将特朗普当选后的涨幅全部归 零。 类似2022年初，美股再一次站在了十字路口。 虽然昨晚发布的CPI数据低于预期，暂时缓解了经济衰退的阴影，美股出现暴力反弹，特斯拉、英伟达等高 弹性的科技股涨幅居前。 但总体上看，美股市场还说不上企稳，接下来依然会呈现高波动性。 都说美股长牛是信仰，只要有大回撤，就可以买入，这一次，会不一样吗？ 01 美股跌到底了吗？ 单从技术指标上看，美股的确存在超卖。 以纳指为例。 周一大跌时，纳斯达克100指数主连(2503)分析，RSI跌至10.95，比24年4月19日的15.69，24年8月7日的 21.47，24年9月6日的20.27还要低。 另外，周一晚标普500波动率指数（VIX）冲高到29.56，收盘为27.86，追平了2023年3月份硅谷银行爆雷时 的水平，仅次于24年8月5日日元加息传闻时的恐慌水平，高于2023年10月份、24年4月份、2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sea's Q4 2024 financial report shows strong growth and profit improvement in the e-commerce segment, but underlying operational indicators in gaming and financial sectors reveal potential risks [1][2][4]. E-commerce Segment - The GMV for Shopee reached $28.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 24%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 18% [12][14]. - The order volume grew by 20% year-on-year, although it showed a sequential decline of 4 percentage points, while the average transaction value increased by 3% [13][14]. - Shopee's revenue grew by 41% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 35% [14][25]. - The monetization rate for Shopee increased by only 0.1 percentage points, the smallest increase since Q4 2023, but the high-margin marketplace monetization rate rose by 0.4 percentage points [2][15]. Financial Services Segment - The outstanding loan balance for SeaMoney reached $5.1 billion, a 64% year-on-year increase, but below the expected $5.44 billion [17]. - Revenue from the financial services segment surged by 55% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 36% [17][24]. - The bad debt ratio remained stable at 1.2%, indicating steady credit quality [17]. Gaming Segment - Active users in the gaming segment decreased to approximately 620 million, with paying users at 50 million, both below market expectations [18][19]. - The average revenue per user declined by 6% year-on-year, contributing to a slowdown in revenue growth [19][20]. - Despite a 19% year-on-year revenue growth, the gaming segment's operational indicators suggest a weakening ecosystem [19][20]. Profitability and Expenses - The e-commerce segment achieved an operating profit of approximately $80 million, significantly above the expected $20 million, with an operating margin of 2.2% [23][24]. - The DFS financial segment reported an operating profit of $198 million, below the expected $230 million, with a profit margin of 27% [23][24]. - Overall, Sea's total revenue reached $4.95 billion, a 37% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin improvement from 43% to 45% [4][25][27]. - Total operating expenses increased by 19% year-on-year, with marketing expenses rising significantly, particularly in the gaming and financial segments [26][27]. Market Valuation and Future Outlook - The market currently values Sea at a PE ratio of over 30x for fiscal year 2026, reflecting expectations of continued profit growth of 20%-30% [7][8]. - The e-commerce segment's valuation is slightly below $50 billion, with expectations of achieving over $1.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2026 [7][8]. - The financial services segment is seen as a potential undervalued growth area, with expectations of achieving around $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2026 [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Major blue-chip companies are releasing positive news, indicating potential investment opportunities in the Chinese market, particularly through share buybacks and significant contracts [2][3][8]. Group 1: Share Buybacks and Increases - Gree Electric announced that its major shareholder, Jinghai Internet Technology, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 10.5 billion and RMB 21 billion over the next six months [2][5]. - Hikvision reported a share buyback of 35.1 million shares, representing 0.38% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of RMB 1.068 billion [5]. - China Merchants Energy announced a buyback of 38.2 million shares, accounting for 0.47% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of RMB 251 million [6]. Group 2: Major Contracts Announced - China Shipbuilding announced a significant contract for the construction of 18,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel container ships, valued between RMB 18 billion and RMB 19 billion, with delivery scheduled for 2028 and 2029 [3][8]. - The contract is expected to enhance the company's long-term market competitiveness and profitability, aligning with international green energy design standards [8]. - Additionally, a framework supply agreement was signed between Dangsheng Technology and SK On for the supply of lithium battery cathode materials, expected to positively impact the company's performance from 2025 to 2027 [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - UBS maintains an overweight position on China, suggesting that the Chinese market should trade at a 15% premium compared to other emerging markets, despite currently being at a 30% discount [3][11]. - The firm highlights that the resilience of capital inflows into the Chinese market could mitigate risks associated with trade conflicts [11]. - The overall sentiment indicates that despite potential trade tensions, the Chinese stock market remains attractive for further investment [11].

Group 1 - The core principle of investment is "do not invest if you do not understand," which emphasizes the importance of understanding future cash flows and probabilities before making investment decisions [2][3] - The investment process involves evaluating a company's business model, corporate culture, and valuation, where the business model and culture enhance the probability of success, while valuation relates to the potential returns [4][5] Group 2 - A strong business model is characterized by high revenue and profit potential, sustainability of competitive advantages, and ease of earning, with specific metrics such as a revenue scale of at least 100 billion RMB and a return on equity (ROE) of over 20% [7][8] - Corporate culture is assessed based on the reliability of management, their prudent use of resources, and their ability to enhance competitive advantages, with specific criteria for evaluation [12][13] Group 3 - Valuation should ensure a minimum annual return of 10%, with a focus on conservative growth rates for lower bounds and meaningful upper bounds based on historical data [15][24] - Additional considerations include avoiding leverage, ensuring stable cash flow for personal expenses, and being aware of external factors such as government regulations and geopolitical risks [16][25][26]

Group 1 - The trading sentiment of the A-share technology sector is currently at a high level, primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, in contrast to the US market which is driven by both valuation and earnings [3][6][29] - The trading congestion in the A-share TMT sector has reached 43%, surpassing the previous historical high of 40%, while the US market is at 38% and Hong Kong at 39% [3][8][13] - The trading congestion of the ChiNext index is also high, currently at 37%, close to its historical peak of 41% [3][13][15] Group 2 - A-share technology sector valuations are overall high, with the computer industry PE (TTM) at 83 times, the electronics industry at 58 times, and the communication industry at 44 times, all above their historical percentiles [3][16][20] - The A-share Sci-Tech 50 index has a PE (TTM) of 87 times, which is at the 98th percentile of the past decade, while the ChiNext index is at 35 times, at the 22nd percentile [3][22][24] - A-share technology leaders have a PE average of 39 times, which is comparable to the US market, while the Hong Kong market is lower at an average of 29 times [3][26][27] Group 3 - The A-share technology market is primarily reliant on valuation fluctuations, with recent trends showing that the market's expectations for the technology sector's success rates are converging [3][29] - The performance of US technology stocks has been driven by earnings growth, with a significant portion of the gains attributed to profitability rather than valuation increases [3][29] - The report highlights a divergence in pricing logic between the US and A-share markets, with the latter being more sensitive to valuation changes [3][29]