Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the first week of December, the industrial production rhythm slightly accelerated. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the prices of risk assets. The improvement in the supply and demand of domestic investment products was limited. In terms of inflation, the increase in vegetable prices widened, and food prices accelerated their upward trend. In terms of exports, container shipping prices weakened, but the demand for coal transportation in the Pacific market strengthened, corresponding to the supplement of imported coal for winter storage. In terms of investment, supported by the cost side such as coal, cement prices stabilized. The apparent demand for steel weakened, and inventory destocking accelerated, indicating a relatively obvious production contraction. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses both seasonally slowed down at the beginning of the month. For the bond market, the fundamental supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. The positive signals in the PMI price were worth continuous tracking. Next week, the focus should be on the fiscal and monetary statements of important meetings [3][33]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Inflation - related: Food price increases widened - Food prices accelerated their upward trend. From December 1st to 5th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, with the decline widening again. Vegetable prices increased by 2.3% week - on - week, with the increase continuing to expand. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.5% and 1.7% week - on - week respectively [7]. 2. Import and export - related: Container shipping prices marginally weakened - The CCFI and SCFI indices both declined further. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The transportation demand on the European route was basically stable, with freight rates slightly declining, and the freight rates on the Mediterranean route increased by about 3%. The demand on the North American route grew weakly, with poor supply - demand balance. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East coasts of the United States decreased by 5% and 4.7% respectively. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 24th to 30th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.3% and increased by 8.4% week - on - week respectively. The monthly average year - on - year growth rates in November were + 10.2% and + 5.7% respectively, stronger than the performance in October. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated their rise. This week, the demand for coal transportation from Indonesia in the Panamax market slightly decreased, with reduced trading activity and slightly adjusted freight rates. However, the freight rates in the Pacific market for Capesize vessels soared, with the daily rent reaching a new high since April 2024. Australian miners continued to make inquiries, and the transportation demand for the loading period in mid - to - late December was high, and the long - distance ore routes followed the upward trend [9]. 3. Industry - related: Production and operation slightly improved - Coal price decline widened. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.0% week - on - week, with the decline widening. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of power plants in inland provinces remained weak year - on - year. Terminal enterprises mainly fulfilled long - term coal contracts and had low acceptance of high - priced market coal. The daily consumption of coastal power plants slightly decreased. In terms of price, some mining areas completed their production targets at the end of the month and compressed production capacity. Coupled with environmental protection and safety inspections, the growth of domestic coal production was limited, and the coal prices at the origin showed a strong trend. However, the advantage of imported coal became apparent, effectively making up for the supply gap, and the overall port coal prices remained stable. - The increase in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.1% week - on - week, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of major steel products decreased by 2.9% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week, with the destocking rhythm continuing to accelerate. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, and that for rebar decreased by 4.6% week - on - week, with the weakening accelerating, indicating that the supply contraction was relatively greater. - The asphalt operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 0.1 percentage points week - on - week to 27.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The rush - work demand gradually decreased, and the asphalt shipment volume was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. - The increase in copper prices widened. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.5% and 4.3% week - on - week respectively. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased, the US dollar index weakened, and the prominent supply - demand gap pattern promoted the accelerated rise of copper prices. - The glass futures price decreased week - on - week. The spot production and sales of glass performed well, the industry inventory was rapidly destocked. Affected by the market production contraction, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was boosted, the shipment speed in many places accelerated, the market sentiment of price support strengthened, and the demand side mainly replenished inventory appropriately, with the quoted prices rising and falling [16][21]. 4. Investment - related: Sales seasonally declined at the beginning of the month - Cement prices stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, showing signs of stabilization. The continuously strong coal prices supported the production cost, but it was the traditional off - season in the north, and the demand in the south was low due to inventory pressure. It was difficult for manufacturers to fully implement price increases, and the overall cement prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. - New - house transactions slightly declined at the beginning of the month. From November 28th to December 4th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 2.118 million square meters, a 0.6% decrease week - on - week and a 36% decrease year - on - year, with the decline continuing to widen. The sales momentum of new houses at the beginning of the month declined. - Second - hand house transactions continued to weaken. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 2.7% week - on - week and 39.6% year - on - year, with the week - on - week decline widening, mainly due to the high - base effect [24][25]. 5. Consumption: The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.263 million vehicles, a 7% decrease compared with the same period last year and a 1% increase compared with the previous month. - Crude oil prices continued to rise. As of December 5th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.9% and 2.6% week - on - week respectively, with the increase of the latter widening. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar index, the OPEC +'s policy of suspending production increases, and the failure to reach an agreement in the US - Russia meeting boosted oil prices [27].

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising over 3 basis points in the morning, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1][3] - Various types of bonds, including government bonds, credit bonds, and interbank certificates, are all trending downward, while the stock market remains relatively stable with a slight increase of 0.04% in the Shanghai Composite Index [3] - The liquidity in the market is tightening, as evidenced by the weighted average rate of DR007 being around 1.42% at the beginning of the month, and a net withdrawal from the open market for five consecutive trading days, shifting sentiment from loose to neutral [3] Group 2 - There is a noticeable increase in transaction volume, signaling a significant sell-off of government bonds, with banks and insurance companies taking the opportunity to increase their positions while funds and brokerages are primarily selling [4] - The trading sentiment is declining, with both government and credit bond transaction ratios falling below 50%, indicating a lack of enthusiasm in the market [5] - The performance of pure bond funds is generally poor, particularly with 30-year government bonds experiencing significant volatility, while mixed bond funds show a mixed performance, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [7][9]

Group 1 - The 10Y government bond yield remained stable compared to last week, while the 30Y government bond yield increased by nearly 7 basis points [1] - The 30-year government bond futures have erased all gains since last year's "moderately loose monetary policy" and have even incurred losses, indicating that "super long bonds" may actually mean "super debt repayment" [1] - Various bond funds, particularly those heavily invested in 30Y government bonds, have experienced significant losses over the past six months, with declines ranging from -6.13% to -7.99% [1] Group 2 - Recent declines in the bond market, especially for long-term 30-year bonds, have led to a sentiment of despair among investors, with some fund managers reportedly facing severe stress [2][3] - There is a prevailing sentiment among investors that the market may not align with the predictions of a bullish stock market in 2026, suggesting a potential disconnect between expectations and reality [6][7] - The future market trajectory remains uncertain, with possibilities of fluctuations, but there is an underlying optimism about overcoming challenges and achieving higher goals [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been declining, with all Treasury bond futures closing down. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Influenced by the stock market, along with the continuation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is also uncertain [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change rate; the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, with a 0.41% growth rate [10]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 99.06, with a 0.20% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.0638, with a 0.08% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with a - 0.14% change rate; DR007 was 1.44, with a - 0.23% change rate; R007 was 1.51, with a - 1.24% change rate; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.62, with a 1.20% growth rate; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a 1.20% growth rate [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows charts of Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance [25][26]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides charts of the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][34][36]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][37][46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][68]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of Treasury bond futures falls [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收|利率】生产强于需求，债市空间仍窄——11月中采PMI点评 原创 阅读全文 ...

12月2日晚间，央行公布买卖国债500亿元。从债市整体走势来看，不及市场预期。30年国债利率再度上行2.40BP，达到2.23%。十年国债走势较为平稳， 10年国债ETF（511260）昨日微涨0.05%。 | 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 (2) » 3% 振0.07% 额50.15亿 | WP | | 134.969 +0.065 +0.05% | | | | 十年国债ETF 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/23-2025/12/03(46日) ▼ | | | | | | | 511260 | | | | | SSE CNY 15:29:56 闭市 查看L2全昌 | | | | | | | 135.50 | 净值走势 | | 国泰上证10年期国债ETF | 今年 | 0.58% 120日 | | | | | 要比 | -18.32% 委差 | -271 | 5日 | 0.11% 250日 | | | | | 卖五 | 134.980 | ୧୩ | 20日 | -0.28% 52周高 | | | | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.69% [1]. Liquidity and Bond Market - CITIC Securities indicated that there is essentially no liquidity gap in December, and the risks to the bond market are limited. The 10-year government bond yield has risen to a range of 1.75% to 1.85%, suggesting potential trading opportunities, although the year-end market may have limited upside [2]. Alibaba Cloud Developments - CITIC Jiantou reported that Alibaba Cloud is accelerating its growth by leveraging the Qwen large model to reshape its business. The company is building a B-end ecosystem barrier through its open-source strategy and strong performance. Alibaba is increasing capital expenditure to meet high computing power demands, with cloud revenue continuing to grow significantly [3]. - Recommendations include focusing on Alibaba ecosystem players, early revenue realization in Pre-AI sectors, and specific vertical AI scenarios for faster revenue growth. Cost reduction strategies are advised for AI coding and multimodal applications, with local inference gradually increasing in volume [3].

人民财讯12月3日电，中信证券研报指出，经测算，12月基本不存在流动性缺口，资金面对债市的风险 有限。参考2021年以来10Y国债收益率各月表现，年末债市利率整体趋于下行。随着今年11月债市调 整，10年国债收益率回升至1.75%~1.85%区间的偏上位置，交易机会也开始浮现。然而，中信证券认为 年末行情的空间可能仍然较为有限，建议结合债市边际变化灵活调整策略节奏。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the manufacturing PMI contraction slowed down, with synchronized improvement in production and demand, accelerated improvement in the price index, and a slowdown in procurement contraction. Meanwhile, the service industry fell into the contraction range, and the construction industry remained below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. More efforts are needed to promote various economic stabilization policies [1][5][35]. - In November, the bond market fell into a "ceiling - floor" oscillation pattern again due to the lack of strong policy and fundamental drivers. Most institutions are waiting for clear guidance from incremental information. The important meetings in December and subsequent key economic data releases are expected to determine the market direction. Historically in December, interest rates tend to decline, but the bullish sentiment in the market has concerns, and the year - end allocation market is yet to start [4][35]. 3. Summary by Directory I. November PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing: The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, remaining below the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months. The production index reached the critical point, external demand improved significantly, the price index improved at an accelerated pace, finished - product destocking accelerated, and procurement contraction slowed [8]. - Non - manufacturing: The service industry fell into the contraction range, with its business activity index dropping 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%. The construction industry showed a slight recovery, with its business activity index rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months [11]. II. Manufacturing: Synchronized Improvement in Production and Demand, Accelerated Improvement in Price Index - Production: The manufacturing PMI production index reached 50.0% in November, returning to the boom - bust line after a brief fall into the contraction range last month, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, but weaker than the seasonal performance [15]. - Demand: External demand improved significantly, driving overall demand to pick up. The new export order index rose notably, and demand improvement was higher than production. Small - enterprise PMI rebounded, and the high - energy - consuming industry's prosperity level rebounded from a low level [18]. - Price: The "anti - involution" policy advanced steadily, and with the coordinated stabilization of supply and demand, the price index improved at an accelerated pace. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index rose by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, and the index difference between them increased to 5.4 percentage points, indicating a narrowing profit margin for enterprises [21]. - Inventory: Finished - product destocking accelerated, and procurement contraction slowed. The raw material inventory index remained flat at 47.3%, and the finished - product inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points. The enterprise procurement willingness increased, and the procurement volume index rose to 49.5% [24]. III. Non - manufacturing: Service Industry Falls into Contraction Range, Construction Industry Shows Slight Recovery - Service Industry: After the concentrated release of consumption demand during the National Day Golden Week last month, consumer - related service industries declined in the off - season, and the service industry fell into the contraction range. However, financial activities continued to strengthen, and new - energy industries maintained steady growth [28]. - Construction Industry: Construction activities recovered in November, with the construction business activity index rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The business activity index of the housing construction industry increased significantly, and that of the civil engineering construction industry remained above 52% [31]. IV. Impact on the Bond Market - In November, the bond market was in a "ceiling - floor" oscillation pattern due to the lack of strong policy and fundamental drivers. Most institutions were in a wait - and - see mode. The important meetings in December and subsequent key economic data releases are expected to determine the market direction. Historically in December, interest rates tend to decline, but the bullish sentiment has concerns, and the year - end allocation market is yet to start [4][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the stock market, delayed Fed rate - cut expectations, and increased global trade uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy signals at the end of the month in the short term [1][3] - For trading strategies, the 2603 contract of treasury bond futures is neutral for unilateral trading; pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis for arbitrage; and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a decrease of 0.20 percentage points and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with an increase of 0.20 percentage points and a growth rate of 0.41% [10] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 99.42, with a decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 0.05%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0710, with a change of 0.000 and a decline rate of 0.01%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.18%; DR007 is 1.46, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.60%; R007 is 1.51, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.11%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, with a change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.11% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 1, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.04 yuan, and 114.37 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.03%, 0.10%, 0.12%, and - 0.08% [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.037 yuan, - 0.149 yuan, - 0.143 yuan, and - 0.139 yuan respectively [3] - There are multiple figures showing the closing price trends, price changes, capital flow, position ratios, etc. of treasury bond futures [7][12][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. The general public budget expenditure increased only by 2% year - on - year and slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, the social financing and credit maintained a low - level expansion, while government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. The M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy [2] - On December 1, 2025, the central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.307%, 1.454%, 1.477%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2] - There are multiple figures showing the Shibor rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and local government bond issuance [7][26][29] 3.4 Spread Overview - There are multiple figures showing the inter - term spread trends of treasury bond futures and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [7][28][33] 3.5 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][36][46] 3.6 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][48][52] 3.7 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied yield and maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][54][56] 3.8 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied yield and maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][61][67]