1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering the issuance rhythm, pricing, regional differences in the primary market, and trading characteristics in the secondary market. It shows that the issuance and trading of local government bonds have certain regional characteristics, and their performance in the secondary market lags behind that of treasury bonds and high - grade credit bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - During the week before the festival (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.13), local government bonds issued a total of 322.136 billion yuan, including 195.074 billion yuan of new special bonds and 44.645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts". As of now, about 429.07 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in February, accounting for 37.05% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [3][10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 0.8BP, 2.2BP, and 2.8BP respectively. The spread between new bonds and treasury bonds of the same term was slightly compressed, with a decline of less than 1bp, but the spread of the 30 - year variety was still similar to the reading in mid - January [3][17]. - Regionally, Hebei and Jiangxi were the main regions for local bond issuance in February. Among the regions with large issuance scales, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued in Henan and Zhejiang exceeded 80%, and the average coupon rates of the two regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance rate of local bonds in Henan reached 2.4% [3][19]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The increase of local bonds was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. During the week before the festival, the indices of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds rose by 0.13% and 0.16% respectively. With the entry of funds holding bonds for the festival, treasury bonds with stronger liquidity were easier to obtain, and long - term credit bonds were also favored by some institutions due to their absolute returns. Local bonds failed to outperform treasury bonds of the same term and high - grade credit bonds [4][23]. - In terms of different provinces, government bonds in Jiangsu and Guangdong were actively traded, and the trading volumes in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Henan increased by more than 40 transactions compared with the previous period. In addition, in regions where the average yield was above 2.25%, the trading terms were mostly extended to over 20 years. Notably, the average trading yields of local bonds in Henan and Guangxi reached 2.27% and 2.35% respectively, with average terms of 19.9 years and 18.8 years [4][23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics in the week from February 2nd to February 6th, 2026 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds issued a total of 579.7 billion yuan, including 134.3 billion yuan of new special bonds and 325.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" are the main investment areas of special bond funds. As of now, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in February has reached 363.7 billion yuan, accounting for 40.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds have all increased marginally. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have widened to 21.1BP, 20.9BP, and 16.7BP respectively [2][16] - In February, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan and other provinces are the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangxi issued 69.1 billion yuan of 7 - 10 - year local bonds. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Tibet and Tianjin are relatively high, both above 2.45% [2][19] 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes decreased by 0.06% and increased by 0.02% respectively compared with the previous week, performing worse than the same - term treasury bonds [3][21] - The trading activity of government bonds in Guangdong, Fujian, and Hubei has increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 71, 29, and 22 transactions respectively. The trading volume of local bonds in Sichuan has decreased significantly [3][21] - The average trading term of Guangxi government bonds has been significantly extended, from the previous week's level to 12.7 years, a 10.5 - year increase. The average trading term of Shandong government bonds is relatively the longest, at 27.0 years. The average trading yields of Shandong and Zhejiang government bonds are both above 2.3% [3][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - **Principles**: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - **Results**: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 19, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 230 billion yuan maturing [1] - The total net injection for the week was 1,192.3 billion yuan, with 1,826.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing from September 22 to 26 [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding conditions improved on Friday, with the overnight repurchase weighted average rate dropping nearly 5 basis points to around 1.46% as the tax period ended [3] - Overnight funding quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system also fell to around 1.46%, although supply was slightly insufficient [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks remained stable at 1.68% [7] Group 4: Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed collectively lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.76%, the 10-year down 0.21%, the 5-year down 0.13%, and the 2-year down 0.05% [13] Group 5: Regulatory and Economic Updates - The central bank announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to better meet liquidity management needs starting September 19 [14] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the need for banks and insurance institutions to increase financial support for key areas and effectively prevent financial risks [14] - Recent data showed that tax revenue from the manufacturing sector grew by over 5% year-on-year in the first eight months, highlighting its significant contribution to overall tax revenue [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the synergy between proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and support economic growth [1][6] - The government has allocated approximately 420 billion yuan to boost consumption, leading to over 2.9 trillion yuan in sales [2] - The issuance of special government bonds has increased significantly, with 7.88 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, a 35.28% increase year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The introduction of various policies, such as child-rearing subsidies and personal consumption loans, aims to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate effective demand [3] - The total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the previous year [5] - Structural monetary policy tools have been implemented to support key sectors, including technology innovation and consumption expansion [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the growth rates of broad money (M2) and social financing remain high, creating a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [1][2][7] - As of August 2025, the M2 balance reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][7] - The social financing scale stock was 433.66 trillion yuan, also growing by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [2][4] Group 2 - The increase in social financing is supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with government bond issuance accelerating [2][4] - In the first eight months of the year, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 10.27 trillion yuan, which is 4.63 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][4] - The M1 growth rate increased to 6% by the end of August, leading to a narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to -2.8%, the lowest since June 2021, indicating enhanced liquidity [1][7] Group 3 - The structure of credit is continuously optimizing, with bond financing increasingly substituting traditional loans, while still providing strong support for the real economy [4][5] - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [4][5] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8%, indicating a robust demand for financing in these sectors [5][6] Group 4 - Experts suggest that the macro policy direction has shifted towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with a focus on long-term reforms [8] - The macro policy is expected to maintain continuity and stability, with moderately loose monetary policy continuing to support the real economy [8] - There is a call for further focus on deep-seated issues and key area reforms to enhance social security and optimize tax systems, which could also stimulate consumption in the short term [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial data growth reflects a stable and practical monetary policy, with significant support for the real economy [1][2][4] - As of the end of April, the total social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, showing an increase compared to the end of March [2][3] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, indicating a strong credit support for the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, contributing significantly to the social financing scale, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 trillion yuan [2][3] - The M2 money supply reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, supported by low base effects and changes in financial data [3][4] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, and for personal housing loans, it was about 3.1%, both lower than the previous year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [4][5] Group 3 - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.9% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.5%, both outpacing other loan categories [5] - The proportion of loans to the manufacturing sector has increased from 5.1% to 9.3% from the end of 2020 to the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift in credit allocation towards manufacturing and innovation [5] - The overall financial data suggests that the monetary policy measures have effectively boosted market confidence, supporting the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [5]