1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are oscillating. The meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump in August 2025 may discuss a long - term peace plan to end the Ukraine war. OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. Geopolitical factors and supply - side changes may lead to a long - term downward trend in crude oil prices. For fuel oil, due to weak power demand in the Middle East and increased production, and with OPEC's continued production increase weakening crude oil sentiment, fuel oil is expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy for both crude oil and fuel oil is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Russian President Putin and US President Trump will meet in Alaska on August 15, 2025, to discuss a long - term peace plan to end the Ukraine war. Trump plans to promote a "Putin - Zelensky - Trump" tripartite meeting, but Ukraine opposes excluding European countries. Russia's core demands include Ukraine's recognition of the sovereignty of Russian - occupied areas and abandonment of joining NATO. The US tries to fulfill the "100 - day cease - fire" commitment through a cease - fire agreement [3]. - OPEC+ 8 - country meeting decided to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. The next meeting will be held on September 7 to discuss future production policy changes [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Futures Closing Prices - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 495.2 yuan/barrel, up 5.8 yuan (+1.19%); FU high - sulfur fuel oil at 2770 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (+0.36%); LU low - sulfur fuel oil at 3502 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan (+1.13%) [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil at 64 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil at 66.71 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline at 2.0775 dollars/gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel at 669 dollars/ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas at 2.984 dollars/mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spreads**: SC - WTI spread increased by 0.80 yuan/barrel (+17.62%); SC - Brent spread increased by 0.80 yuan/barrel (+43.73%); Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 2.71 dollars/barrel [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spreads**: FU - SC spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton (+6.58%); LU - SC spread increased by 1 yuan/ton (+0.46%); LU - FU spread increased by 29 yuan/ton (+4.13%) [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Price Data - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil decreased by 0.62 dollars/barrel (-0.89%) to 68.76 dollars/barrel; Russian ESPO decreased by 0.46 dollars/barrel (-0.73%) to 62.47 dollars/barrel; Brent Dtd increased by 0.18 dollars/barrel (+0.26%) to 68.15 dollars/barrel [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9 dollars/ton (-2.23%) to 394 dollars/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3 dollars/ton (-0.61%) to 486.5 dollars/ton [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3029 thousand barrels (-0.71%) to 423,662 thousand barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 1323 thousand barrels (-0.58%) to 227,082 thousand barrels; distillate oil inventory decreased by 565 thousand barrels (-0.50%) to 112,971 thousand barrels; US production decreased by 30 thousand barrels/day (-0.23%) to 13,284 thousand barrels/day; refined oil inventory decreased by 141 thousand barrels (-0.32%) to 44,681 thousand barrels [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 314 thousand barrels (+1.34%) to 23,699 thousand barrels [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,767,000; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 92,710; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,050 [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was at 98.267, up 0.2343 (+0.24%); the US 10 - year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.27%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.2545 [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The Baltic BDI index was at 2038, down 13 (-0.63%); the crude oil freight rate BDTI index was at 1013, up 2 (+0.20%); the refined oil freight rate BCTI index was at 656, down 15 (-2.24%) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff truce between the US and China has been extended by 90 days, and OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. Although inflation has risen, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The oil price is expected to fluctuate before the US - Russia summit on Friday, with a short - term trading range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have decreased, while the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The tariff truce extension, OPEC+ production cut, and expected Fed rate cut are neutral factors. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, API and EIA inventories decreased, but the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below it, and WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long - increasing [3]. - **Market Data**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and Oman crude oil showed different changes, with Brent up 0.04 (0.06%), WTI up 0.08 (0.13%), SC down 3.90 (- 0.79%), and Oman down 0.53 (- 0.77%) [7]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trade Policy**: The US has extended the tariff exemption period with China again. Without the extension, the US would have raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China would have retaliated with 125% tariffs. After previous negotiations, the US reduced tariffs to 30% and China to 10% [5]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump will meet with Putin on Friday to assess the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. European countries are worried that the US may pressure Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace agreement [5]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period has been extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 423.3 million barrels in the week ending August 1, and EIA inventory decreased by 302.9 million barrels in the same period. Cushing area inventory increased by 45.3 million barrels, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory decreased by 48.2 million barrels as of August 11 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 供给端利空因素密集影响，国际油价弱势下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-11 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 | | | | | | 原油主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要油品价格 | SC原油（元/桶) | 489 8 . | 527 9 . | -7 . | 22% | | 原油 | 944182 | 945933 | -0 19% . | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report previously indicated that oil prices in August were under downward pressure, and since early August, crude oil has been continuously weakening. The WTI crude oil price has dropped by approximately $7 during this period. The market's main trading logic is the repricing of geopolitics, with an increased possibility of progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks mediated by the US. However, risks after the continuous decline in oil prices should not be ignored, such as over - optimism about the peace talks and the impact of sanctions. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [5][77]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Overall Decline**: This week, oil prices declined overall. Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Russia and a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, leading the market to price in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and causing a rapid drop in oil prices. As of August 7, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $63.82 per barrel, Brent crude at $66.41 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 508.9 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Weakening of Inter - monthly Spreads**: No detailed content on the specific situation of the weakening of inter - monthly spreads is provided [12]. - **Differentiation in Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds**: As of the week ending July 29, the net long position of WTI funds was 97,387 lots, a decrease of 850 lots from the previous week; the net long position of Brent funds was 249,973 lots, an increase of 22,728 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil increased by 6,049 lots, 2,817 lots, and 2,042 lots respectively [17]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ agreed at an August 3 meeting to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day are planned to be fully restored. However, in June, the actual increase in production was limited. OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, while Iran's production decreased due to conflicts [21]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to limited changes in the number of rigs and low producer willingness to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.367 million barrels per day [31]. - **Risks**: The market is pricing in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, causing a rapid drop in oil prices. Trump's additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil may be for negotiation chips. With the ongoing US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine talks, considering the VIX level of domestic crude oil, purchasing SC call options can be considered to avoid extreme risks [33]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: As of the week ending August 1, gasoline and jet fuel demand declined, while distillate demand increased slightly. Overall, US oil demand decreased month - on - month. Gasoline demand was 9.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 112,000 barrels per day from the previous week; distillate demand was 3.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 115,000 barrels per day from the previous week; jet fuel demand was 1.705 million barrels per day, a decrease of 388,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total US petroleum product demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.265 million barrels per day from the previous week. Refinery capacity utilization reached 96.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, and crude oil processing volume was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day from the previous week [34][46]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy has not directly affected the oil market. Attention should be paid to whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and thus increase crude oil demand. In June, consumption improved, and crude oil processing volume increased mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries. The operating rate of local refineries remained low due to tax policy adjustments and the transformation of domestic energy demand [50]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories decreased slightly, and the inventory level fluctuated at a low level. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 423.662 million barrels, a decrease of 3.029 million barrels from the previous week; SPR inventories were 402.976 million barrels, an increase of 235,000 barrels from the previous week. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory increased by 460,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories continued to decline but were at a relatively high level, distillate inventories decreased slightly, and jet fuel inventories increased [60][66]. - **OECD**: In June, global crude oil demand was strong, and OECD inventories decreased slightly. The monthly global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. OECD inventories at the end of June were 2.796 billion barrels, a decrease of 150 million barrels from the previous month [72]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The report reiterates that oil prices declined this week due to the market's repricing of geopolitics. After the continuous decline in oil prices, risks such as over - optimism about peace talks and sanctions should be considered. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [77].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the oil market are generally neutral, with limited production growth from OPEC+ and the US, and the actual demand in the peak season slightly falling short of expectations. Oil prices are mainly driven by macro - level tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical situations. In the medium term, as demand moves towards the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - level sentiment, it is advisable to consider short positions after a rebound [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The WTI main contract opened at $65.15, closed at $64.27, with a high of $66.75, a low of $63.64, a decline of 1.37%, and a trading volume of 33.36 million lots. The Brent main contract opened at $67.75, closed at $66.96, with a high of $69.18, a low of $66.22, a decline of 1.01%, and a trading volume of 39.59 million lots. The SC main contract (yuan/barrel) opened at 508.4, closed at 501, with a high of 510.9, a low of 497.5, a decline of 0.63%, and a trading volume of 14.76 million lots [6]. - **News**: According to the New York Times, Trump may meet with Putin face - to - face next week, followed by a three - way meeting with Zelensky. Under this background, the possibility of the US imposing secondary tariffs on Russian energy is extremely low [6]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending August 1st, US crude oil inventories declined more than expected, and the refinery utilization rate reached a new high. However, US refined oil demand remained weak, with gasoline consumption in the peak season not significantly increasing and being lower than the same period in 2024 for four consecutive weeks [7]. 2. Industry News - Goldman Sachs data shows that although Russia supplies about one - third of India's crude oil, the US share climbed to 8% from April to May 2025 and was 4% in the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The Iraqi oil minister said that oil exports through the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline will resume on Wednesday or Thursday [8]. - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military attacked the Ukrainian natural gas transportation system supplying military facilities [8]. - After the US decided to impose a 25% new tariff on Indian goods, Indian refiners are waiting for government instructions on whether to continue buying Russian oil [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend, poor current market operability, and it's recommended to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined in the given content - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): Not clearly defined in the given content Group 2: Report Core Views - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly declined, and the market may turn to a weak trend dominated by the pessimistic supply - demand situation. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continues to shrink. The asphalt supply increase space is neutral, with low inventory supporting prices. LPG maintains a weak and volatile trend [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC09 contract dropping 0.97% during the day. The potential US sanctions on Russia may be less than expected, causing the geopolitical risk premium to fade. Last week, US EIA crude inventories unexpectedly decreased by 3.029 million barrels, but the post - peak season supply - demand outlook is still loose. The market may be dominated by a weak supply - demand situation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC continued to decline, and fuel - related futures fluctuated weakly, with FU performing stronger than LU. In August, the arrival volume of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, and the ship refueling demand lacks support. Singapore's inventory remains high, and the diesel crack spread has continuously dropped by $7/barrel since the mid - July high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continues to shrink [2] Asphalt - The SC main contract continued to decline, while BU rose slightly in the opposite direction. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months, and Lanqiao Petrochemical's maintenance was postponed again. The sample refineries' shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate remained stable. The factory inventory destocking slowed down, the social inventory increased slightly, and the overall commercial inventory remained flat month - on - month and at a relatively low level in recent years [3] LPG - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The chemical profit margin has stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end, and the domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply is relatively loose in July, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. Crude oil has weakened recently, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, maintaining a weak and volatile trend [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The crude oil market is expected to experience volatile price movements. The market is influenced by factors such as the seasonal peak travel season, changes in US crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the US economy [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is range-bound trading. The seasonal peak travel season has led to low US crude oil inventories. However, the latest EIA report shows a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories and a significant unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, resulting in an overall increase in refined oil inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may impact the supply - demand balance. Concerns about reduced supply from Russia and Iran due to geopolitical factors and worries about the US economy also affect the market [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main futures contract (2509) of crude oil dropped by 1.55% to 508.8 yuan per ton, with a lowest price of 502.2 yuan per ton and a highest price of 513.2 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 24 to 28,256 lots [2]. Group 5: Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the expected increase in global oil inventories in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA reduced the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels [3]. Group 6: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, while its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day in the week of July 25. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.801 million barrels per day, 2.52% higher than the same period last year. However, the single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 1.76% month - on - month due to a significant decrease in other refined oil products, despite increases in gasoline and diesel demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative stated that the tariff policy will remain largely unchanged, with specific tariffs set for imports from Canada (35%), Brazil (50%), India (25%), and Switzerland (39%) [2] - Tariffs are established based on bilateral trade surpluses and deficits, and these rates are considered fixed [2] Group 2 - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, with a total increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August [4][5] - The decision to increase production comes despite previous voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, which were extended until March 2025 [4] - Current oil prices are under pressure due to concerns over global energy demand, influenced by U.S. employment data and tariff policies [5][7] Group 3 - Global oil supply is increasing, with June production rising by 628,000 barrels per day compared to May, while demand also increased by 1.82 million barrels per day [6] - OECD commercial oil and petroleum product inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels by the end of June, indicating a tightening supply situation [6] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment is creating uncertainty in oil demand, with potential economic drag from U.S. tariff policies [7] - Despite being in a traditional consumption peak season, gasoline consumption is weaker than expected, while diesel margins remain high but are weakening [7] Group 5 - The long-term outlook suggests a trend towards oversupply in the oil market, with OPEC+ expected to gradually increase production, leading to further pressure on prices [8] - Domestic chemical products are currently at historical low prices, which may provide some stability in profits despite the downward pressure from oil prices [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions and consider adding more on dips. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in Q3, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50/barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan/barrel [6]. - The logic behind the view: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in Q3, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter. This is mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center, making de - stocking difficult to disprove. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and short - term market pricing of "recession" may provide good buying opportunities. There is also a risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions. In the medium to long term, the market is bearish due to the long - term oversupply pressure from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., making inventory accumulation difficult to disprove [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a rally in the second half of Q3 [6]. - Strategies: For the short - term, hold long positions and add more if the price continues to correct. For the long - term, short at high prices and trend - short. Pay attention to long 09 and short 10, long 09 and short 11 in the inter - period strategy. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the inter - variety strategy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Global stock markets have declined, market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the gold - oil ratio has rebounded [11]. - Overseas inflation has risen, and the service PMI has rebounded [12]. - The RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has recovered [13]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ may continue to increase production. Attention should be paid to the decline in non - OPEC+ production. For example, Iraq's Kurdish region has a 200,000 - barrel - per - day production halt due to a drone attack, while the UAE's production has exceeded 3 million barrels per day, and its July exports reached 3.31 million barrels per day (close to a record high). The US Gulf of Mexico has added 150,000 barrels per day of new capacity, but the closure of California refineries has offset some of the supply increase [6][7][8]. - Presented the monthly and weekly export volume data of OPEC+ core member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, etc., as well as the weekly export volume data of non - OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, and Mexico [15][24][42]. - The number of US shale oil drilling rigs and production have rebounded [50]. 3. Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe are at seasonal highs. The operating rate of China's major refineries has stabilized, and the operating rate of independent refineries has rebounded [52]. - Asian demand is differentiated. China's refinery processing volume in June reached 15.2 million barrels per day (a month - on - month increase of 1.2 million barrels per day), but high refined oil inventories have curbed subsequent purchases. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil due to US tariff threats and shifted to Angolan crude oil. In Europe, there is a shortage of distillates in north - western Europe, while there is an oversupply of fuel oil in southern Europe [6][9]. 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have rebounded, and Cushing region inventories have stabilized but are significantly lower than historical averages [55]. - European crude oil inventories have rebounded, while diesel and gasoline inventories have decreased [60]. - Domestic refined oil profit margins have recovered [62]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis has rebounded slightly [65]. - The monthly spread has declined [66]. - SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened [69]. - Net long positions have rebounded [70].