2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约持平，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货（T） 主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.03%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to continue the range - bound consolidation in the short - term, with a higher possibility of an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term view is that TL2509 will be range - bound, and the intraday view is range - bound to the downside, while the medium - term view is range - bound. The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of range - bound to the downside and a medium - term view of range - bound [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term view is range - bound, the medium - term view is range - bound, the intraday view is range - bound to the downside, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. Recently, the central bank has net withdrawn funds in the open market, and the risk appetite in the stock market has recovered, leading to a range - bound adjustment of Treasury bond futures. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the downside space of Treasury bond futures is limited. Currently, domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations, so the possibility of an upward trend in Treasury bond futures in the medium - to - long - term is high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current fundamentals continue the weak recovery trend. After the cross - quarter, the easing of capital pressure kicks off the seasonal easing window, and the overall environment is favorable for the bond market. However, with the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations not dispelled, the downward space for yields is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.08%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.22% respectively, while trading volumes increased by 845, 490, 434, and 2498 respectively [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - Different contract spreads show various changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.02, and the T2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.00 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts and the long - short positions of the top 20 show different changes, with the net short positions of most contracts decreasing [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of multiple CTD bonds decreased, such as the 220010.IB (6y) decreased by 0.1041 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7y active treasury bonds increased by 0.15 - 0.90bp, while the 10y yield decreased by 0.10bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight interest rate decreased by 7.49bp, and the silver - pledged 7 - day interest rate increased by 2.00bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 690 billion, the maturity scale was 1310 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The central bank is actively researching and promoting other measures for the opening - up of the bond market; the Chinese Ministry of Finance is willing to deepen BRICS financial cooperation; the US will impose tariffs on 14 countries and extend the tariff negotiation suspension period to August 1st [2]. 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On July 9th at 22:00, the US May wholesale sales month - on - month rate; on July 10th at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5th [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals continue the weak recovery trend. After the cross - quarter period, the capital pressure subsides, and the seasonal loosening window opens. The overall environment is bullish for the bond market. However, due to the unclear policy disturbances in the second half of the year, the downward space for yields is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为109.105、106.225、102.502、121.150，其中TF、TS、TL主力合约分别下跌0.02%、0.01%、0.04%，T主力合约持平；T、TF、TL主力成交量分别减少218、865、1354，TS主力成交量增加257 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads like TL2512 - 2509 increased by 0.02, while others such as T2512 - 2509 decreased by 0.02 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量为216,298手，减少0.01%；TF主力持仓量为157,986手，增加81手；TS主力持仓量为115,517手，减少1,682手；TL主力持仓量为122,562手，减少16手。 The net short positions of T, TS, and TL decreased, while that of TF increased [2]. b. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds like 220010.IB increased by 0.0337, while others such as 240020.IB decreased by 0.0414 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y active bonds decreased by 0.10 - 0.15bp, while the 10Y yield increased by 0.15bp [2]. c. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.25bp to 1.3225%, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 16.08bp to 1.4908%, and the 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 2.00bp to 1.5000%. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.10bp to 1.3120%, Shibor 7 - day increased by 3.50bp to 1.4580%, and Shibor 14 - day decreased by 2.90bp to 1.4940% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. d. Market News - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect in August. The Minister of Finance of China attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting and expressed China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation [2]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump said that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 70%, and are likely to take effect on August 1 [2]. e. Key Data to Focus On - On July 07 at 17:00, the eurozone May retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. On July 08 at 20:30, US President Trump will start sending tariff letters to other countries [3].

Group 1: CTA Product Overview - In Q2 2025, 100 new CTA products were issued, indicating a continuous upward trend in issuance [5][10] - The median annualized return for the reported CTA products was 16.37%, with a median Sharpe Ratio of 1.60 and a median maximum drawdown of -4.28% [10][11] - The overall profitability ratio of CTA products in Q2 was 69.4% [10][11] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Stock index futures experienced a trend decline in volatility during Q2, reaching near historical lows [2][40] - The market outlook suggests limited upward space for A-shares due to valuation pressures, with stock index futures expected to remain volatile in Q3 [2][40] - The average daily trading volume for major index futures contracts showed a decline compared to the previous quarter [12] Group 3: Government Bond Futures Outlook - The yield levels for medium to long-term government bonds are at historically low levels, limiting downward potential [3][51] - Economic weakness and insufficient demand are suppressing the upward movement of interest rates, leading to a forecast of a primarily oscillating market for government bond futures in Q3 [3][51] - The performance of government bond CTA strategies is expected to be negatively impacted by low volatility in the absence of extraordinary market events [3][51] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - Commodity volatility is currently low, with significant price movements in precious metals and energy sectors during Q2, followed by a return to oscillation [4][65] - The overall lack of trading signals in the commodity market is attributed to ongoing deflation in China and slow interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading to a wait-and-see approach for CTA strategies [4][65] - The average return for commodity trend-following strategies was -1.5% in Q2, indicating underperformance across major commodities [64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年7月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：银行间主要利率债收益率整体延续稳中稍降，超长期国债及10年国开债仍然略弱。国债期货多数上扬，30年期主力合约涨0.11%。资金面充盈 宽松，资金价格进一步下滑。存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，目前位于1.31%位置，七天质押式回购利率下行超4个bp至1.42%位置。资金价格 继续向下，对政策维持宽松信心较为稳定；流动性充裕短期继续支撑债市表现。 5、盘面：TS主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多；TF主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多； T主力与在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上， 偏多。 9、主力持仓：TS主力净多，多增。TF主力净多，多增。T主力净多，多减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has shown a slight increase in value and liquidity, indicating a stable investment environment with potential for future growth as new capital flows into the market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 4, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.06%, with a latest price of 112.94 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.42% [3]. - The ETF's net inflow reached 14.67 million yuan recently, with a total of 240 million yuan in net inflows over the last five trading days [4]. - The ETF has achieved a 13.97% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 410 in the index bond fund category [4]. Group 2: Trading and Liquidity - The trading volume for the ETF was 81.78 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.08% [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.264 billion yuan [3]. - The financing net purchase amount was 4.5149 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 33.4793 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.039% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year Treasury Index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term. The logic for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium to long term is relatively solid, and the downside space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways to the weak side. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI data is marginally improving, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is sideways to the weak side, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is sideways. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures were all in a narrow sideways consolidation. With the gradual disappearance of tax - period factors, market liquidity has shifted from a tight state at the end of June to a loose state. Recently, the central bank has started to conduct net withdrawals of liquidity in the open market. In the overall macro - environment, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is affected by tariff factors. Although the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is not high, the downside space of Treasury bond futures is limited as market interest rates are always anchored by policy interest rates [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.40%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.14%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03%[1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan[1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.51% (1.55% the previous day)[1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.37 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.56 BP to 1.85%[1] - US ADP employment: In June, the US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, lower than the estimated increase of 98,000 people and the previous increase of 37,000 people[1] Market Logic - Stimulus policies are continuously introduced: In late June, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds and the implementation of equipment renewal loan discount policies, and the Monetary Policy Committee recommended strengthening monetary policy regulation[1] - Industrial profit data: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year - on - year (a 3% increase in April), which is favorable for bond market bulls[1] - PMI data: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (49.5% the previous month)[1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[2]

Core Viewpoint - The early trading of government bond futures shows positive movements across various maturities, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.03% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract also saw an increase of 0.03% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced a rise of 0.05% [1]