Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market has experienced fluctuations driven by policy expectations and risk aversion, with significant performance in the 10-year and 30-year bonds [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since September, the bond futures market has gone through a cycle of "volatile decline → rebound driven by policy expectations → increase driven by risk aversion" [1] - The 30-year bond futures contract hit a six-month low on September 24, while the 10-year bond futures fluctuated around 107.7 yuan [1] - After the National Day holiday, a relaxed funding environment helped the bond market recover, with the 10-year bond yield dropping by 3.2 basis points to 1.743%, marking a new low for the period [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade tensions has introduced new shocks to the market, with "TACO trading" being the main theme prior to late September [2] - Historical patterns indicate that trade tensions affect the real economy primarily through inventory cycles, with U.S. importers stockpiling goods before new tariffs take effect [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio has increased from 24 times in April to 31 times currently, suggesting a higher likelihood of market volatility [2] Group 3: Domestic Asset Allocation - The logic of under-allocation in domestic assets continues, with expectations of seasonal declines in credit issuance as the "golden September and silver October" peak season passes [3] - The insurance industry is projected to generate over 3 trillion yuan in new premiums by 2025, creating a rigid allocation gap for long-term bonds [3] - The expectation of the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in global indices may lead to a cessation of foreign capital reduction, prompting increased allocation to government and local bonds, particularly 30-year and 50-year bonds [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with a projected 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter to support economic growth [3] - The central bank will utilize open market operations and other tools to ensure ample liquidity, with the DR007 rate likely to remain between 1.5% and 1.6% [3] - A downward testing of the 10-year bond yield towards 1.70% is possible if credit expansion remains weak, with the policy mix potentially shifting to a "loose + hedging" model [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's risk aversion sentiment has cooled as the US has signaled a willingness to engage in rational negotiations on China-US trade policies. The probability of additional tariffs being implemented in this round is low, considering the evolution of tariff policies in April this year. The ongoing suspension of the US government and the delay in the release of key economic data have left the market without clear short - term guidance. The cooling of the US labor market has strengthened the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain its rate - cut path. The performance of the bond market will continue to be affected by the progress of the new regulations for public bond funds, the trend of the fundamentals, and changes in market risk appetite. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will maintain wide - range fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see and closely monitor policy trends and market sentiment changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力合约收盘价108.170，涨幅0.11%，成交量125,811，增加39,884；TF主力合约收盘价105.775，涨幅0.1%，成交量73,462，增加13,182；TS主力合约收盘价102.384，涨幅0.02%，成交量32,167，增加509；TL主力合约收盘价114.760，涨幅0.34%，成交量155,935，增加31,191 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.35，增加0.02；T2512 - 2603价差0.31，减少0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.11，减少0.01；TS2512 - 2603价差0.09，基本持平；T12 - TL12价差 - 6.59，减少0.22；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.40，减少0.02；TS12 - T12价差 - 5.79，减少0.09；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.39，减少0.08 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量233,798，增加10,284；前20名多头持仓216,176，增加7,496；前20名空头持仓225,250，增加11,335；前20名净空仓9,074，增加3,839；TF主力持仓量136,437，增加8,641；前20名多头持仓124,195，增加6,589；前20名空头持仓139,734，增加8,828；前20名净空仓15,539，增加2,239；TS主力持仓量65,965，增加88；前20名多头持仓54,896，增加978；前20名空头持仓57,180，增加369；前20名净空仓2,284，减少609；TL主力持仓量151,894，增加6,917；前20名多头持仓134,318，增加5,747；前20名空头持仓151,510，增加6,992；前20名净空仓17,192，增加1,245 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB(6y）净价106.3633，增加0.1972；250018.IB(6y)净价99.0955，增加0.1132；2500801.IB(4y）净价99.3468，增加0.0219；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，增加0.0342；250012.IB(1.7y)净价99.9528，增加0.0041；220016.IB(2y)净价101.8889，减少0.0045；210005.IB(17y)净价129.6537，增加0.4572；220008.IB(18y)净价121.7227，增加0.2815 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1年期收益率1.3650%，增加1.00bp；3年期收益率1.5085%，减少0.90bp；5年期收益率1.5875%，减少0.75bp；7年期收益率1.7000%，减少0.50bp；10年期收益率1.7610%，减少1.40bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.2904%，增加1.04bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，增加0.10bp；银质押7天利率1.4000%，减少6.00bp；Shibor7天利率1.4230%，减少2.40bp；银质押14天利率1.4433%，减少4.67bp；Shibor14天利率1.4450%，减少2.10bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1年期LPR利率3.00%，持平；5年期LPR利率3.5%，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模910亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，到期规模0亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 中国9月出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.3%，进口增长7.4%，贸易顺差904.5亿美元；9月稀土出口4000.3吨，进口6864.7吨；1 - 9月稀土出口48355.7吨；美国对中国海事、物流和造船业开展301调查，中方将韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司列入反制清单 [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - 10月16日02:00美联储公布经济状况褐皮书；10月16日20:30公布美国9月零售销售月率 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of government bond futures, with increases observed across various maturities [1][2] - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract rose by 0.02% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract increased by 0.03% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract saw a rise of 0.10% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced the largest increase of 0.37% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "sideways" due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the overall view is "sideways". In the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom - side consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias". The core logic is that long - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with an overall view of "sideways". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. In the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, the necessity of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low, and the recent rebound of treasury bond futures limits their short - term upward momentum. However, due to the need for a moderately loose monetary environment on the macro - economic demand side, the treasury bond futures have strong support at the bottom in the long run. The tariff threat from Trump on Friday night increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is short - term positive for treasury bond futures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article commemorates the life and contributions of Guan Jinsheng, a pioneer in the Chinese securities industry, who passed away on October 7, 2025, due to a sudden illness. His legacy includes founding the first securities company in New China and later establishing a private equity fund management company, demonstrating resilience and innovation in the financial sector [1][2]. Group 1: Life and Career of Guan Jinsheng - Guan Jinsheng was born on May 19, 1947, in a poor village in Jiangxi Province and rose to prominence in the financial industry [3]. - He graduated with a master's degree in French literature from Shanghai International Studies University in 1982 and later obtained dual master's degrees in law and business administration from a university in Belgium [4]. - In 1988, he founded the first securities company in Shanghai, Wangguo Securities, with a capital of 35 million RMB, and played a crucial role in establishing the Shanghai Stock Exchange [6][7]. Group 2: Achievements and Challenges - Under Guan's leadership, Wangguo Securities grew to manage assets worth tens of billions and was a significant player in the A-share and B-share markets, holding over 60% of the underwriting business in China by 1994 [7]. - He was known for his ambition to position Wangguo as a leading firm comparable to international giants like Merrill Lynch, emphasizing the recruitment of highly educated professionals [7]. - The "327 bond incident" in 1995 marked a significant downturn in his career, leading to substantial losses for Wangguo Securities and resulting in his imprisonment for 17 years [9][11]. Group 3: Later Ventures - At the age of 69, Guan Jinsheng founded Shanghai Jiusu Mountain River Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. in 2016, focusing on private equity investments in new technologies and materials [12][13]. - The company was established with a registered capital of 15 million RMB and has a management scale ranging from 0 to 500 million RMB, with 23 private fund products registered [13][15]. - Guan held an 82% stake in the company, indicating his continued influence and commitment to the investment sector [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]

国债期货日报 2025/10/10 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 周五期债震荡走弱，全线收跌。现券收益率多数上行。资金面宽松，DR001在1.32%左右。公开市场逆回购 4090亿，净回笼1910亿。 观点：关注央行态度 盘面点评： 日内消息： 1.国家发展改革委和市场监管总局发文，治理价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序。 行情研判： 期债早盘震荡，午后走弱。在节后资金面宽松的环境下，近两个交易日短债表现较弱，而长债表现偏强，这 一走势未必能够持续。消息方面，传昨日进行的11000亿买断式逆回购边际利率有所下降，这意味着央行定 向降低银行负债成本，也意味着央行暂时更倾向于使用结构性工具进行调控，而降准降息将继续延后。短期 仍以震荡观点看待市场，交易不宜追高，多单逢低布局。 | 国债期货日度数据 | | --- | | | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

被誉为"中国证券教父"的管金生逝世，享年7 8岁 。 创办万国证券、被誉为"中国证券教父"的管金生逝世，享年78岁。 10月9日深夜，上海九颂山河股权投资基金管理有限公司（以下简称"九颂基金"）发布公告称，公司近日收到 公司实际控制人、执行董事管金生家属的通知，管金生因突发疾病抢救无效，不幸于2025年10月7日与世长 辞。 1995年4月，管金生因为" 327国债事件"辞职。1 995年5月19日，管金生以贪污和挪用公款罪，在海南被捕。 同月，国债期货市场被关闭。经此一役，万国证券元气大伤。199 6年7月16日，申银证券与万国证券合并为申 银万国证券公司。 1997年2月3日，上海第一中级人民法院判处管金生1 7年有期徒刑。20 03年，管金生获准保外就医，此后淡出 公众视野。 在中国A股激荡三十几年的历史中，管金生是一个绕不开的名字。他曾经是上海滩上叱咤风云的"证券教父"， 一手创办了新中国第一家证券公司——万国证券，却又因" 327国债事件"一夜之间从巅峰跌落谷底。 公开资料显示，管金生出生于194 7年，198 8年2月，管金生负责筹建上海第一家证券公司——万国证券，由上 海国际信托投资公司等10家 ...