来源：中国能源网 受原油连涨提振，本轮变化率由负转正，调价预期由下调转为搁浅。金联创测算，截至1月13日第五个 工作日，参考原油品种均价为59.94美元/桶，变化率为0.45%，对应的国内汽柴油零售价应上调5元/吨。 根据"十个工作日"原则，本轮调价窗口为1月20日24时。目前计价周期过半，本轮零售价调整方向搁浅 与小涨概率并存，对国内批发市场行情影响甚微。 随前期价格跌至低位，炼厂利润空间较窄，成本端支撑趋强，炼厂及主营单位继续降价意愿不高，随原 油连续上推，今日国内主营单位汽柴走势稳中小幅趋强运行，其中华北、华南主营单位柴油报价小幅上 推。但零售价搁浅预期作用市场，终端消费及社会贸易商的补库行为均显谨慎，市场操作多以按需采购 为主，本次上涨行情对市场购销气氛提振有限，仅个别低价市场出货略有改观。 后市来看，伊朗潜在供应中断担忧加剧，国际油价走势仍有上涨可能，但油价在经历连续上涨后，市场 观望情绪升温，短期内国际油价走势涨势放缓，变化率走势或继续正向发展，消息面指引谨慎向好。需 求面来看，随北方气温下降，私家车出行增加带动汽油终端消费，另外春节假期临近加油站用户节前备 货意愿增强，汽油价格底部支撑较强，短期 ...

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains high, with prices fluctuating around the $4600 mark, influenced by a mild rebound in the US dollar and upcoming CPI data [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve's policy have intensified, particularly following the legal investigation into Chairman Powell, which has reinforced risk-averse sentiment and supported gold prices [2] - Geopolitical factors, including ongoing unrest in Iran and potential military actions from the US, have also constrained the downside for gold, maintaining its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Market anticipation is focused on the upcoming December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3% and a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7% [3] - The actual performance of the inflation data is expected to directly influence market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's policy stance at the January 28 meeting, potentially amplifying short-term volatility in the US dollar and precious metals [3] - Despite the current high-level consolidation in gold prices, the underlying support from policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and interest rate expectations remains intact, attracting interest from institutional buyers [3]

【黄金期货行情表现】 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，通胀问题仍是他最关心的经济问题，他还称，在更广泛的不确定性 中，就业市场仍处于低雇佣、不解雇的模式。"通胀仍然过高，"他称。"必须将其控制住，我们需要高 度聚焦，确保我们所做的一切都能为此做出贡献。" 美国总统特朗普1月8日称，作为美国三军统帅，"我不需要国际法"。他的"道德标准和意志"是其在全球 范围内指挥军事行动的唯一制约因素。 美国国会预算办公室预计，美国GDP增速将在2026年加快至2.2%，2026年PCE通胀率为2.7%，2028年为 2.1%。美国失业率将在2026年降至4.6%，并在2028年进一步降至4.4%。2026年劳动力市场反映出劳动 力需求增加，劳动力供给增长乏力。美联储利率将在2026年第四季度降至3.4%。 【机构观点】 短期来看，鲍威尔刑事风暴增加对美联储独立性担忧，美最新非农就业数据表明美国劳动力市场增长动 能减弱，市场对美联储今年晚些时期的降息预期强化；地缘政治风险激发市场避险需求，支撑金价上 涨。美联储降息周期、全球央行购金和地缘政治冲突对金价形成坚实的中长支撑。 1月13日，沪金主力暂报1027.18元/克，涨幅1.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined slightly but remain above the $4,600 mark due to increasing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and escalating tensions in Iran [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - New York gold futures fell by 0.3% to $4,602.50 per ounce as traders took profits after the previous trading day reached a historical high [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.1% to 98.98, indicating a rebound from previous sell-offs [1] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that the dollar's rebound followed a sell-off triggered by concerns that the Trump administration is undermining the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - Gold continues to be supported by broader economic and geopolitical risks, particularly following President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]

1月13日，据花旗集团最新发布的报告，鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及市场对美联储独立性再 次出现不确定性，该行大幅上调了对贵金属的短期展望。包括Max Layton在内的分析师团队在电邮报告 中表示，在牛市情景下，将未来0-3个月的黄金目标价从每盎司4200美元上调至5000美元，白银目标价 则从每盎司62美元大幅上调至100美元。 花旗指出，"投资势头依然强劲，众多利好因素现可能继续保 持"在第一季度。分析师特别提到，由于美国232条款关税决定可能延迟，白银和铂族金属的持续实物短 缺问题在短期内可能会略有恶化，这将进一步推高价格。 另外，高盛推迟了对美联储降息预测的时间，目前预计2026年6月和9月将分别降息25个基点，而不是之 前预期的2026年3月和6月。这一调整是在非农就业数据疲软后作出的，反映了劳动力市场逐渐减弱的迹 象，同时GDP增长强于预期，关税影响逐渐消退。高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克表示："在最新的 就业报告之后，我们认为美联储会等到年中降息，届时通胀将向目标回落，劳动力市场也将找到立足 点。" 高盛预计，到2026年底，联邦基金利率将达到3-3.25%，并已将其对12个月内经济衰退 ...

Core Insights - The 34th Annual Global Strategy Conference hosted by Goldman Sachs revealed a stark contrast between macro optimism and micro caution among investors, with a strong GDP outlook but a rush towards safe-haven assets like gold and non-US markets due to geopolitical concerns [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Investors are highly optimistic about the US economy, with over 80% expecting GDP growth to exceed 2% by 2026, a figure more optimistic than Bloomberg's consensus of 2.1% [2] - The fear of a US recession has dropped to nearly zero, with 0% of respondents anticipating a recession [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risk has emerged as the largest threat to the global economy and markets, with 65% of investors identifying it as a major concern for 2026, up from 30% the previous year [2] - Inflation risk has decreased to 12%, and trade risk has plummeted from 41% to just 4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Despite strong economic data, investors are still eager for monetary easing, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 70 basis points by 2026, more aggressive than the current market pricing of 50 basis points [3] - 35% of investors expect the European Central Bank to lower rates, while expectations for the Bank of England are even higher at a 60 basis point cut [3] Group 4: Equity Strategies - The strategy of "buying US stocks blindly" is losing favor, with only 23% of respondents believing the US will be the best-performing region, down from 58% [4] - Emerging markets are gaining traction, with Asia (excluding Japan) being the most favored region at 38% [4] - The perception of China as a long-term investment opportunity has rebounded to 25%, up from 9% in the past two years [4] Group 5: Sector Preferences - Technology stocks remain the top choice for 31% of investors, but the advantage is narrowing [5] - 60% of investors believe the S&P 493 will outperform the "seven giants," indicating a potential shift away from crowded AI trades towards undervalued sectors [5] Group 6: Commodity Market Trends - There is a significant divide in the commodities market, reflecting investor distrust in fiat currencies and supply-demand judgments [6] - 45% of investors believe copper will be the best-performing commodity by 2026, driven by demand from AI data centers and electrification [6] - 42% of respondents expect gold prices to rise to between $5,000 and $6,000 per ounce, with 10% predicting prices above $6,000 [6] - Conversely, 54% expect Brent crude oil prices to fall below $60 per barrel, a stark increase from 5% the previous year [6]

基本面： 现货黄金价格在周一上涨近2%，收报每盎司4597.21美元，盘中一度触及4630.08美元的峰值，而美国2月期金更是收涨2.5%，报4614.70美元。这一突破性上 涨并非偶然，而是投资者对全球不确定性急剧增加的直接反应。回顾过去一年，黄金价格已飙升逾64%，创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现，这得益于持续 的低利率环境和避险需求的井喷。与此同时，白银价格也联动暴涨，现货银盘中创下每盎司86.22美元的历史新高，最终收报85.12美元，涨幅达5.2%。 特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，成为本次金价暴涨的核心催化剂。美国司法部威胁就鲍威尔在美联储华盛顿总部25亿美元大楼翻修项目上的国 会证词提起刑事诉讼，这一消息如同一枚重磅炸弹，炸开了市场对美联储独立性的担忧之门。鲍威尔本人将此举斥为白宫试图施压降息的"借口"，而他的任 期将于5月结束，特朗普已开始面试潜在继任者，包括贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。这一事件不仅加剧了政治干预美联储的风险，还直接冲击了美元的长期前 景，导致美元指数周一下跌0.23%，收报98.90。 除了美联储内部的风波，全球地缘政治风险的持续升温也为黄金提供了强劲支撑。特 ...

消息面上，1月12日，美宣布对与伊朗贸易的国家加征25%关税，并威胁采取军事行动，美伊紧张局势 骤然升级。光大期货指，由于伊朗的特殊地理位置，加之其在中东地区的重要角色，一旦与美国的冲突 加剧，势必会引发地缘紧张情绪的升温，从而造成油价的剧烈波动。更为重要的是，伊朗掌握着海湾地 区石油的运输命脉，霍尔木兹海峡，一旦伊朗因受到威胁而封锁该海峡，势必会斩断中东地区原油的对 外输出的最大途径，并造成供应中断的风险。 山东墨龙（002490）(00568)涨超9%，截至发稿，涨9.34%，报3.98港元，成交额4.12亿港元。 ...

【宏观扰动：地缘扰动较多，或推动油价短期走高】 中信期货表示，地缘短期扰动仍然较多。后期地缘前景仍是主导原油供应预期的核心因素，油价在供应过剩及地缘扰动频发的相互制衡下延续震 荡，短期重点关注地缘相关的冲高风险。（来源于中信期货20260113《地缘⽀撑油价，化⼯⾼估值追⾼需谨慎》） 中信证券认为，地缘政治风险或推动油价短期走高，但考虑到当前全球原油市场仍处于供给宽松格局，预计油价仍将在60~70美元/桶扰动。考虑 到委内瑞拉石油短期供给缺口或在100万桶/天左右，预计短期油价将上行。 1月13日，A股市场走势分化，沪指震荡回调，油气板块冲高！截至13:38，油气ETF汇添富(159309)上涨1.98%，盘中价格创上市以来新高，冲击4 连涨。资金涌入油气板块，油气ETF汇添富(159309)盘中吸金超360万元！ 【油气ETF汇添富(159309)标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002353 | 本瑞股份 | 机械设备 | -2.21% | 9.85% ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-13 地缘事件持续发酵 贵金属延续强势 市场分析 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将 面临25%的关税。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗做好了应对一切可能的准备，希望美国作出"智慧的选择"。如 果美国选择军事手段，伊朗也做好了准备。此外，英国和德国正牵头多个欧洲国家，商讨在格陵兰岛部署军队， 以回应美国总统特朗普对北极地区的"安全关切"。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-12，沪金主力合约开于1004.48元/克，收于1026.28元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.97%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1026.86元/克，收于1030.26元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.39%。 2026-01-12，沪银主力合约开于18800.00元/千克，收于20945.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动11.82%。当日成交 量为1207195手，持仓量为325729手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于20900元/千克，收于21268元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨1.54%。 美债收益 ...