Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue their recent upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CNOOC (00883) rose by 3.66% to HKD 23.2, reaching a new historical high [1] - PetroChina (00857) increased by 2.49% to HKD 9.04 [1] - Sinopec (00386) gained 2.28% to HKD 4.49 [1] - CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) saw a rise of 0.88% to HKD 8.03 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military's largest aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Caribbean, while Venezuela is conducting new military exercises [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that geopolitical risks in South America may rise in the next 1-2 weeks, despite Trump's indecision on military action against Venezuela [1] Group 3: OPEC+ and Oil Price Outlook - Everbright Securities indicates that OPEC+ halting production increases may improve supply-demand balance, potentially supporting oil prices [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities forecasts that OPEC+ will announce multiple production increases in 2025, which could suppress oil prices due to expected supply increments and Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" impacting global demand [1] - The average Brent/WTI oil prices for Q3 2025 are projected to be USD 68.17/barrel and USD 64.96/barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.40% and 13.78% respectively [1] Group 4: Company Performance and Outlook - Leading upstream oil and gas state-owned enterprises are expected to mitigate the pressure on oil prices through continuous reserve increases, production enhancements, and cost reductions [1] - If terminal consumption demand improves further, these leading state-owned enterprises may achieve performance recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue to rise, with CNOOC reaching a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions [1] Group 1: Company Performance - CNOOC (00883) increased by 3.66%, reaching 23.2 HKD, a new historical high [1] - PetroChina (00857) rose by 2.49%, priced at 9.04 HKD [1] - Sinopec (00386) saw a 2.28% increase, trading at 4.49 HKD [1] - CNOOC Services (02883) gained 0.88%, with a price of 8.03 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The entry of the largest U.S. aircraft carrier strike group into the Caribbean and military exercises in Venezuela contribute to rising geopolitical risks [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that geopolitical tensions may support oil prices despite Trump's indecision on military action in Venezuela [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that OPEC+ halting production increases improves supply-demand balance, potentially supporting oil prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guolian Minsheng Securities predicts that OPEC+ will restore production multiple times in 2025, which may suppress oil prices due to increased supply expectations [1] - The forecast for Brent and WTI average prices in Q3 2025 is 68.17 USD/barrel and 64.96 USD/barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.40% and 13.78% respectively [1] - Leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises are expected to mitigate the pressure on oil prices through continuous reserve increases and cost reductions, with potential performance recovery if terminal demand improves [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into their price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and investment suggestions based on current market conditions and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still downside potential for oil prices this year. Short - term support exists due to geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen further [22] - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume falsifies the construction rush demand expectation, and the market is bearish with significant pressure on prices [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG shows a narrow - range oscillation and is relatively strong among oil futures. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand support the LPG market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. They lack a strong driving force and may continue to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the $4150/ounce resistance level for international gold prices [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper showed a position - reducing oscillation. The upward momentum of the copper market is declining, and short - term trading strategies such as buying put options are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the resistance around the November 2024 high of 21,800 yuan [5] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and it is expected to operate weakly with limited rebound space [6] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. Low inventory supports the external market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to follow the external market to make up for the increase [8] - **Lead**: The external market rebounds strongly, and the domestic market is supported by rigid demand and is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is affected by over - supply, and the price is expected to be weak [10] - **Tin**: Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term upward momentum is strong, and short - selling above 290,000 yuan is recommended [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a slight correction and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to improved demand and reduced inventory [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price drops significantly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support at the lower edge of the range [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price declines slightly, and the short - term is expected to oscillate after the center of gravity rises [14] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [16] - **Coke**: The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price increase is poor, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [18] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates weakly, with strong support at the bottom [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates weakly, and it is judged to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [20] Chemicals - **Benzene and Its Derivatives**: Benzene is weak, styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance but is under price pressure, and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have weak supply - demand support [27][28][29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to run at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: They oscillate, with a bearish outlook in the short - to - medium term and an expected inventory build - up for PTA [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply growth pressure is large, and a bearish view is maintained [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but weakening demand, while bottle - chip demand fades with processing margin pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Vegetable oil boosts the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price is oscillating [38] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas supports rapeseed oil prices. Short - term observation is recommended [39] - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates at a high level, and the supply is expected to be loose, with limited rebound height [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price drops slightly, and the futures price may rebound seasonally, with attention paid to the supply release rhythm [42] - **Eggs**: The far - month futures price rises, and the near - month price is weak. Observation is recommended [43] - **Cotton and Sugar** - **Cotton**: The price oscillates, with new - cotton cost providing support and demand being average [44] - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [45] - **Fruits and Others** - **Apples**: The price oscillates widely, and a bearish operation idea is maintained due to inventory pressure [46] - **Timber**: The price runs weakly, with low inventory providing support [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The price rises, and the short - term upward space may be limited. Long positions should be held cautiously [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares are weakly sorted, and futures contracts decline. Attention should be paid to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and domestic policy signals. A mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing is recommended [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillate upward, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The reduction of shipping prices by shipping companies suppresses market sentiment. The downward space of the December contract is limited, and attention should be paid to cargo volume improvement and the adjustment of the 02 - contract delivery rules [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, with increasing geopolitical concerns. The US Navy's largest aircraft carrier arrived near Latin America, and Russia's energy exports are expected to decline significantly at the end of the month. India, one of the largest buyers, has reduced its share, which supports crude oil. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger. SC2512 is expected to operate in the 465 - 475 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The Republican - controlled House of Representatives is expected to vote on a compromise plan to end the 42 - day government shutdown. Although the US imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Russian oil shipments from ports remained stable in early November, but India has reduced its Russian crude oil purchases in December [3]. - **Basis**: On November 11, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37/barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.33/barrel. The basis was 29.51 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending October 31, US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels. As of November 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of November 4, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **India's Crude Oil Purchase**: India's five major core refiners have not placed any orders for Russian crude oil for next month. This change occurred after Trump doubled the tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% in August and sanctioned two major Russian oil producers last month [5]. - **Ukrainian Attack on Russian Refinery**: Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian oil refinery in the Volga region this month. The Saratov refinery, which can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day, has been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year [5]. - **Nigeria's Oil and Gas Production**: With the approval of 43 oil field development plans this year, Nigeria is expected to add 1.7 billion barrels of oil production and 770 billion cubic feet of natural gas production, involving an investment of about $20 billion [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, the US - Russia talks are cancelled and sanctions against Russia increase, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while there is a risk of increased supply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $64.06 to $65.16, an increase of 1.72%; WTI crude oil increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; SC crude oil decreased from 460.2 to 459.2, a decrease of 0.22%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.63 to $64.99, an increase of 0.56% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $62.60 to $64.39, an increase of 2.86%; WTI increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; Oman crude oil decreased from $65.64 to $65.37, a decrease of 0.41%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $60.87 to $60.62, a decrease of 0.41%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $65.62 to $65.46, a decrease of 0.24% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from July 22 to September 23 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from August 26 to October 28 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [19].

Group 1 - Gold prices have stabilized and are on an upward trend after a recent adjustment, supported by unsustainable high debt levels in major economies, strategic allocations by long-term investors, declining real interest rates, and increasing global risk events [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, suggests that when debt exceeds repayment capacity, central banks often create significant amounts of money and credit, leading to high inflation and gold prices, advocating for gold as a fundamental currency [1] - UBS reports that gold's core positions are becoming more resilient, with central banks increasing gold purchases to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar, alongside retail investors buying gold through ETFs, potentially driving prices higher [1] Group 2 - Recent gold price declines were attributed to profit-taking after a surge and unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions, but the recent rise in both gold and US stocks suggests that the previous correction was sufficient [2] - Despite the easing of significant risks like a US government shutdown, the frequency of geopolitical risk events remains high, which could continue to catalyze upward movement in gold prices [2] - Investors interested in gold exposure can consider gold ETFs (518800) or gold stock ETFs (517400) for potential opportunities [2]

黄金建议：回踩4126-4120区间布局多 止损10美金 目标4160-80 技术面上，黄金涨势凌厉，日线录得大阳线，4小时图均线呈多头排列，MACD指标金叉放量，表明当 前多头占据绝对主导。值得注意的是，持续40天的美国政府停摆已初步结束，积压的非农、CPI等关键 数据即将公布，这可能引发市场剧烈波动并为美联储政策路径提供新指引。此外，市场对美国潜在财政 刺激的讨论可能加剧通胀担忧，进一步凸显黄金的对冲价值。综合来看，黄金基本面与技术面强势共 振，整体趋势向上。操作上，建议顺应趋势以逢低做多为主，但需警惕重要数据公布后可能带来的短线 震荡风险。 高晓峰:11.11地缘冲突未平+降息预期又起，黄金避险买盘激增 近期美国就业与消费者信心数据疲软，令市场对美联储提前降息的预期急剧升温，这成为推动金价上涨 的核心动力。作为非生息资产，黄金在低利率预期下的吸引力显著增强。同时，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等 地缘政治风险持续，也为金价提供了稳固的避险支撑。在多重利好因素共同作用下，黄金买盘强劲，价 格持续走高。 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究 ...

Group 1 - The Philippines' economy has been significantly impacted by a widespread infrastructure corruption scandal, leading to a growth rate of only 4.0% in Q3, the slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][3] - The corruption scandal has severely undermined consumer and investor confidence, with public construction growth contracting by 26.1%, the lowest level since 2011 [3] - Estimated economic losses from corruption in flood control projects alone amount to approximately 118.5 billion pesos, with total losses in public infrastructure from 2022 to 2025 projected at around 623.5 billion pesos [1][3] Group 2 - The Philippine peso has experienced a sharp decline, reflecting market concerns over economic stability and potential growth slowdown due to infrastructure spending controversies [3] - The government is facing challenges in achieving its annual growth target of 5.5%, with current growth rates falling short of expectations [3] - Geopolitical risks have deterred foreign investment, particularly from Chinese and Western multinational companies, leading to a shift of potential investments to neighboring countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new round of fuel price adjustments due to fluctuations in international oil prices, resulting in a slight increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices starting from November 10 at 24:00 [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From November 10 at 24:00, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 125 and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to an average increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [1]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Conditions - The global crude oil market is currently characterized by an overall supply surplus, with international oil prices showing narrow fluctuations during the adjustment period, averaging higher than the previous adjustment cycle [3]. - Brent crude oil futures are currently oscillating in the range of 63 to 65 dollars per barrel [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - There are significant uncertainties regarding geopolitical risks, particularly the potential escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, which could impact oil supply [5]. - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, which may provide support for oil prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices effective from November 10, 2025, due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the 22nd adjustment of the year and the 7th increase, with a pattern of "seven increases, nine decreases, and six stabilities" for the year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to an increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for both 92 gasoline and 0 diesel [1] - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost an additional 5 yuan [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The recent adjustment period (October 25 - November 7) saw narrow fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures averaging between 63 to 65 USD per barrel [1] - Factors affecting oil prices include concerns over economic outlook and oversupply due to the longest U.S. government shutdown, increased U.S. crude oil inventories, and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as ongoing sanctions against Russia [2] - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise with the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially providing support for oil prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logics include short - term hedging due to geopolitical risks after the Sino - US talks, the weakening US employment and moderate inflation leading to potential Fed rate cuts, the impact of the US government shutdown and consumer confidence on the currency attribute, and the influence of the CRB commodity index and RMB appreciation on the commodity attribute [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold closed at $4007.80 per ounce, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.14% from last week; London gold closed at $3994.10 per ounce, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 0.43% from last week; Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.60% from the previous day and 1.45% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68% from the previous day and 1.39% from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai gold futures positions decreased by 9.72% from last week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 2.23% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1.32% from last week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver closed at $48.23 per ounce, up 0.79% from the previous day and down 0.05% from last week; London silver closed at $48.70 per ounce, up 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai silver futures closed at 11,719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05% from the previous day and 2.30% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14% from the previous day and 2.48% from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai silver futures positions decreased by 2.91% from last week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 2.65% from last week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 6.53% from last week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.48% from last week; Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 7.42% from last week [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve and Monetary Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25; the Fed's total assets are $6623.643 billion, down 0.00% from last week; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 [8]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, down 1.23% from the previous day and up 1.69% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.16% from the previous day and 0.18% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and 16.13% from last week [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%, up 0.14; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.91%, up 0.05 [10]. - **Economic Growth and Other Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.80%, up 4.40; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, down 0.57 million [10].