◎记者 何奎 张兴（化名）从一家中部地区股份行支行行长转型为保险代理人不到一年，让他没想到的是，今年 的"开门红"竟如此忙碌。招聘新人、拜访客户、介绍产品是张兴每天的"主线任务"。最近，也有不少前 银行同事向张兴表达了转行意向。 从银行员工跳槽成为保险代理人，张兴的故事印证了保险市场的火热。近日，上海证券报记者调研了解 到，随着居民数十万亿元存款到期，保险产品承接了一部分"泼天的富贵"，不少险企2026年"开门红"实 现两位数增长。因此，不少拥有客户资源优势的银行员工选择跳槽成为保险代理人，力争抓住这波居民 存款再配置的历史机遇。 银行人转型保险代理人 记者调研了解到，在2026年保险业"开门红"中，不少险企的个险渠道、银保渠道业绩均实现两位数增 长，分红险成为销售员首推和客户首选的产品。 "我们今年'开门红'业绩实现两位数增长，其中超八成产品是分红险。"一家寿险公司上海地区总经理告 诉上海证券报记者。 保险销售的火热也体现在中介渠道。杨帆告诉记者："今年开年，我们深切感受到了'存款搬家'大趋势 下市场释放的强劲购买力，居民对于通过保险锁定长期收益、平滑经济周期波动的需求极为迫切。从代 理渠道的视角来看，市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of deposit relocation discussion is the result of multiple factors. Although there are concerns in the market, there is no obvious outflow pressure at the data level so far. The relocation of corporate deposits has been evident since April 2024, with limited marginal impact, while there is no need to worry too much about the relocation of household deposits for now. Strong market changes are usually required to trigger obvious deposit relocation [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. What is deposit relocation? How large is the scale? - **Driving factors**: Since 2017, residents' defensive savings motivation has increased; since 2022, deposit rates have been lowered multiple times; in April 2024, the "manual interest subsidy" was stopped; the stock market has performed well in 2024 - 2025; and a large number of time deposits from 2022 - 2023 will mature in 2025 - 2026 [10] - **Current situation**: Since 2024, corporate deposit growth has declined significantly, while household deposit growth has remained relatively stable. Deposit relocation mainly refers to the transfer of general deposits to other assets, and the relocation of corporate deposits has affected the demand - side structure of the bond market [14][16] - **Scale assessment**: In the medium - to - long - term, deposit relocation depends on excess deposits. In the short - term, it depends on the maturity volume of high - interest time deposits. Based on the data of 15 listed national and joint - stock banks, the estimated national bank time deposit maturity volumes from 2024 to 2026 are 83.4 trillion yuan, 96.0 trillion yuan, and 110.6 trillion yuan respectively, with high - interest time deposit maturity volumes of 26.8 trillion yuan, 31.7 trillion yuan, and 33.5 trillion yuan respectively [18][31] II. How to observe deposit relocation? - **Residents/enterprises deposit growth**: Observe the growth rate changes of residents' and enterprises' deposits and their growth rates relative to M2, and combine with banks' actions to supplement liquidity. For example, when the growth rate of corporate deposits declined in April 2024, the net financing of certificates of deposit increased significantly [35] - **Macro cross - sectoral capital flows**: The scale and growth rate of non - bank deposits are the most direct indicators. In 2025, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year, and the increase in securities margin in non - bank deposits may be large [42] - **Terminal asset market indicators**: Observe the expansion of bank wealth management and public fund scales, as well as capital market activity indicators such as A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and new account openings [50] III. Insights from the review of historical household deposit relocations - **Five rounds of obvious and continuous household deposit relocations since 2005**: They occurred in 2006 - 2007, 2009 - 2010, 2011, 2013 - 2015, and 2016 - 2018, respectively. The triggering factors mainly include the improvement of stock market profitability, the relaxation cycle of the real estate market, and the increase in the attractiveness of asset management products [5][56] - **Conclusion**: There is no need to be overly worried about the current round of deposit relocation. The relocation of corporate deposits has been gradually digested, and the scale of household deposit relocation is not large. Future attention should be paid to the rise of the stock market and the income changes of asset management products caused by bond market fluctuations [65]

来源：21世纪经济报道 记者：李览青 "三年前存的三年期定存，年利率还有3%以上，现在到期后再存，利息直接少了一半多。"在杭州工作的孙女士看着手机银行里即将到期的存 款，感到有些无奈。 像她一样，全国有数百万计的家庭正面临同样的选择：据华泰证券测算，2026年将有50万亿一年期以上的定期存款到期。然而，他们可能面临 同样的窘境——翻遍银行的App，几乎没有2%。 "我也不贪心，只要收益可以跑赢定期存款就行。"孙女士告诉记者，她正在积极寻找收益相对稳定的"存款贵替"产品。 这笔三年前锁定了高利息的存款，在利率步入"1时代"的今天，已经成为银行理财、保险、基金等多赛道觊觎的"香饽饽"。 2026年伊始，这场由"50万亿存款到期"引发的资金争夺战持续升温。 不过，大多港股打新策略产品，仅面向私行用户推出，要成为私行用户不仅需要资产600万-800万元的门槛，单笔理财的申购金额也需从20万 元起步。 记者注意到，网商银行"增利宝"近期也上线了某大行私行同款的港股打新策略产品，可实现"1元起购"，大幅降低了普通人享受港股打新收益 的门槛，从而满足用户多元配置的需求。 此外，微众银行则在原"活期+"产品线的基础上推出了" ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the relationship between deposit migration and stock market pricing in China, highlighting the unique valuation system of the A-share market compared to international markets [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Low Inflation Environment**: The current low inflation in China makes fixed-income assets attractive to residents, influencing their investment decisions [1][3]. 2. **Investment Willingness**: The willingness of residents to invest in stocks is a critical factor determining market liquidity and stock price movements, rather than merely the volume of maturing deposits [1][3][5]. 3. **Correlation Analysis**: Historical data from 2016 to 2025 shows a weak correlation between the volume of maturing deposits and stock price increases, indicating that focusing solely on deposit maturity does not effectively explain stock price fluctuations [3][18]. 4. **Net vs. New Funds**: New funds entering the market do not equate to net new funds, as the behavior of both buyers and sellers must be considered to assess the overall investment pool in stocks [4]. 5. **Predictive Indicators**: The growth rate of "resident investment funds" serves as a strong predictor for the performance of the Wind All A Index, emphasizing the importance of tracking residents' willingness to invest in risk assets [5][13]. 6. **Asset Composition**: Residents' investable assets include both existing liquid assets and current savings, with investment proportions influenced by income expectations [6][8]. 7. **Income Expectations**: Income expectations are crucial for assessing stock market investment willingness, with indicators such as CPI service prices and PMI employment data being useful for tracking these expectations [2][10][11]. 8. **Current Deposit Trends**: As of Q3 2025, residents show a high tendency to save, indicating a lack of significant appetite for risk assets, which could be improved by positive income expectations [8][15]. 9. **Insurance Funds**: Insurance funds have a high allocation to stocks, but their marginal contribution to the market is expected to decrease in 2026 due to already high stock allocation levels [9][16]. 10. **High Net Worth Individuals**: High net worth individuals maintain a balanced approach to stock investments, showing both buying and selling behaviors, reflecting cautious optimism [9][17]. 11. **Future Market Predictions**: If income expectations remain stable or improve in 2026, stock market inflows are likely to increase, positively impacting the Wind All A Index. Conversely, a decline in income expectations could limit market growth [15][19]. Other Important Insights - The relationship between housing prices and income expectations is significant, as changes in housing prices can influence residents' financial outlook and investment behavior [12]. - A comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic factors, including actual interest rates and international capital characteristics, is essential for accurately predicting future market trends [7][19].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is shifting its product supply to meet the growing demand for diversified asset allocation, with a focus on "fixed income+" and FOF products that incorporate ETFs as underlying assets [1][4]. Group 1: Product Supply Shift - The "fixed income+" strategy, which traditionally involved a mix of fixed income and equity assets, is now expanding to include ETFs and other asset types like gold and REITs [2][5]. - As of January 26, 2025, there are 11 new "fixed income+" funds being issued, with a total market size of 2.92 trillion yuan, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The FOF products are also gaining traction, with 15 new FOFs being issued and a total management scale of 218.9 billion yuan, marking a 16.91% quarter-on-quarter growth [3][4]. Group 2: Multi-Asset Strategy - The trend towards multi-asset allocation is becoming increasingly evident, with funds like FOF and "fixed income+" attracting significant inflows, indicating a shift in investor strategy towards more diversified portfolios [4][6]. - Investors are encouraged to achieve their investment goals with fewer fund types, which can lower costs and improve efficiency in asset allocation [6]. Group 3: Future of ETFs - There is a strong expectation for the development of multi-asset ETFs, which would enhance the flexibility of public funds in asset allocation, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [7][8]. - Recent initiatives have been announced to explore the launch of multi-asset ETFs, which would include a mix of stocks, bonds, and other asset types, reflecting the evolving investment landscape [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "net new funds" over "new funds" in relation to stock market performance, highlighting that the willingness of residents to invest is closely tied to income expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: New Funds vs. Net New Funds - "New funds" do not equate to "net new funds"; the latter is crucial for stock market increases, as it considers both inflows and outflows [3][5]. - The relationship between stock price increases and the growth rate of new funds is stronger than that with the absolute amount of new funds [5][6]. - Historical data shows that the absolute scale of new funds does not strongly correlate with stock market performance, while the year-on-year growth rate of new funds does [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Willingness and Income Expectations - The willingness of residents to invest in the stock market is a key variable influenced by income expectations, which are closely linked to employment and inflation [17][23]. - High net worth individuals and insurance funds may invest independently of general income expectations, but their impact may diminish in 2026 [26][27]. - The article proposes a framework to analyze income expectations based on employment and service inflation, indicating that if income expectations stabilize or improve, the growth rate of new funds could be promising, albeit lower than in 2025 [2][34]. Group 3: Indicators and Predictions for 2026 - The article suggests that monitoring service CPI and non-manufacturing PMI can provide insights into income confidence, which is crucial for predicting market behavior in 2026 [34][39]. - The analysis indicates that if income expectations do not improve, the growth rate of funds allocated to the stock market may slow down, potentially leading to a more subdued stock market performance [49][50]. - The article also discusses the challenges of predicting market behavior based on fundamental economic indicators, emphasizing the need to consider non-fundamental factors [52][53].

新华财经上海1月27日电（记者王淑娟）2025年，银行理财市场规模突破30万亿元，达到33.29万亿元的 历史新高。与规模扩张形成鲜明对比的是，理财产品平均收益率连续三年下降，2025年已罕见地跌破 2%关口。最受普通投资者关注的收益率"三连降"后，银行理财产品还有吸引力吗？ 约1800万新投资者"跑步"进场 银行业理财登记托管中心日前发布的《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》（以下简称《报 告》）显示，截至2025年末，银行理财市场存续规模33.29万亿元，创下历史新高，同比增长3.34万亿 元，增幅达11.15%。 规模增长的背后是近1800万投资者"跑步"入场，截至2025年末，持有理财产品的投资者数量达1.43亿 个，其中个人投资者数量较2024年初新增1769万个。 兴业研究银行业高级研究员吕爽表示，银行理财规模持续增长的原因，一是存款利率下行，银行理财产 品较存款相比仍有一定收益优势；二是低波稳健的固收类理财产品契合投资者"存款替代"的低风险偏好 诉求；三是理财市场数字化赋能与营销渠道"下沉"共同提高理财产品的覆盖面。 近年来，存款利率持续下行，2025年末，国有大行三年期整存整取的存款挂 ...

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, FOFs (Fund of Funds) emerged as a significant product in the public offering market, accounting for 20.07% of the total issuance volume, indicating a strong growth trend in this investment vehicle [1][11]. Group 1: FOF Market Performance - As of January 26, 2026, there were 78 newly issued funds with a total issuance of 765.46 billion units, of which 11 were FOFs, totaling 153.62 billion units [1]. - The total issuance of FOFs has exceeded 100 billion units for four consecutive months, reflecting a robust demand in the market [2][11]. - By the end of 2025, the total number of public FOFs reached 545, with a record total scale of 2,440 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving FOF Growth - The growth of FOFs is attributed to multiple factors, including a low-interest-rate environment leading to a shift in savings, the effectiveness of multi-asset strategies, and strong promotion by distribution channels [2][5]. - Demand for stable investment alternatives has surged due to declining yields on deposits and wealth management products, creating a "deposit migration" trend [5]. - The supply side has seen enhancements through customized FOFs, holding period designs, and multi-asset strategies, improving product competitiveness [5][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Trends - The investment methodology for FOFs has evolved from a focus on selecting individual fund managers to a multi-asset allocation approach, which is now a prevailing trend in the industry [9]. - The diversification of asset allocation has been evident, with significant increases in the proportion of commodity funds and QDII funds in FOF portfolios, aligning with market trends [9]. - FOFs recorded a return of 12.8% in 2025, significantly outperforming the previous year's return of 4.06%, indicating a recovery in performance [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - FOFs are expected to continue their growth trajectory into 2026, with a potential to absorb a substantial amount of maturing fixed-term deposits estimated at 45 trillion to 50 trillion yuan [11]. - The characteristics of stable FOFs align well with the demand for deposit replacements, and their design can help manage liquidity and stability for banks [11]. - The expansion of ETFs may lead to the emergence of ETF-FOFs as a core innovation direction, while customized FOFs are likely to gain traction to meet diverse investor needs [11].

2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 营收利润加速增长，预计净息差趋势继 续向好 《招商银行（600036）2025 年三季报点评：Q3 营收同比增速转正，资产质量稳中向好（买入）* 股份制银行Ⅱ*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-10-30 《招商银行（600036）2025 年中报点评：净利润 增速转正，资产质量稳中向好（买入）*股份制银 行Ⅱ*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-09-02 《招商银行（600036）2024 年年报点评：资产规 模、客户存款和零售客户 AUM 增速突破两位数（买 ——招商银行（600036）2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2026/01/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 招商银行 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the anticipated growth of the bank wealth management market in 2026, driven by the trend of deposit migration and the need for financial institutions to adapt to changing market conditions [3][4][5]. - In 2025, the wealth management market size is expected to reach 34 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase and outpacing public fund market growth [2]. - The structure of wealth management products is expected to further optimize, focusing on deposit replacement products, particularly short-term high liquidity fixed-income products and low-risk closed fixed-income products [5][6]. Group 2 - The average yield of current management wealth products is around 1.4%, while fixed-income products yield about 2.2%, maintaining a comparative advantage over current three-year fixed deposit rates [4]. - The investment strategy for bank wealth management is expected to continue with a low-volatility asset allocation approach, focusing on high-grade short- to medium-term credit bonds and maintaining a cautious stance on equity allocations [8][9]. - The overall wealth management yield is projected to exhibit a "weak fluctuation" pattern in 2026, influenced by economic fundamentals and policy environments, with a stable liability side expected to enhance the acceptance of wealth management yield levels [8][9].