在盈利视角下，在"反内卷"政策推动下，PPI有望持续回升，企业盈利也将不断修复。综合当前市场预 期，2026年全A非金融归母净利润同比增速预计在10%至14%。在估值端，2026年A股具备较大提升潜 力，叠加流动性宽松及潜在的财政扩张预期，市场整体空间依然乐观。 2025年微观层面的流动性改善为股市注入了重要动能，这一逻辑在2026年的重要性依旧，但资金结构或 将出现变化： 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，产业领域潜在催化因素丰富，流动性重要增量有望来自居民存款搬 家。我们认为，伴随PPI回升，企业盈利将持续修复，A股牛市格局有望延续，市场估值仍具备可观的 提升空间。节奏层面，当前可积极布局以应对可能前置的春季躁动，从中期维度来看，明年上半年将是 较好的行情窗口。 2025年，A股走势大致可划分为两个阶段，核心逻辑均为科技产业引领，叠加政策端与流动性的共振， 其中7至9月居民存款搬家与杠杆资金注入共同推动市场走出一轮主升浪。2026年，产业催化将持续增 多，新质生产力领域"DeepSeek时刻"有望持续涌现，新兴产业景气度将延续，与此同时货币宽松环境大 概率维持，增量流动性值得期待。 从当前存款市场格局 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - The effective credit demand in the banking sector remains weak, with a slowdown in deposit migration observed [5]. - Social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total social financing stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The contribution of government bonds and RMB loans to social financing has weakened, while corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing have gained traction [5]. - The demand for credit from the household sector continues to be weak, with a notable decrease in short-term loans [5]. - The growth rates of M1 and M2 have declined, indicating a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. - The report suggests that the support from government bonds for social financing is diminishing, and credit demand still needs to recover [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing dividend value of banks, driven by factors such as a low-interest-rate environment and substantial dividend payouts, and continues to favor the banking sector [5]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry Overview - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in effective credit demand and a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. Social Financing and Credit Demand - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total stock grew by 8.5% [5]. - RMB loans increased by 405.3 billion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan [5]. - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, indicating insufficient consumer demand [5]. Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.9% and 8% respectively, with a month-on-month decline [5]. - The total deposits in financial institutions increased by 1.41 trillion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others, highlighting their ongoing dividend value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is expected to achieve unexpected growth in 2025, driven by deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, while facing valuation adjustment pressures in 2026 [2] Group 1: Resident Risk Preference Insights - In 2026, residents are expected to show a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of more liquid deposits and asset management products [4] - The average decline in retail deposit rates in 2025 was approximately 30 basis points, with a significant slowdown in new fixed-term deposits, while demand for liquid deposits and wealth management products increased [4] - A total of 32 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, with a repricing range of 70-170 basis points, indicating potential for further deposit migration [4][19] Group 2: Fund Flow from Excess Savings - From 2020 to 2025, an excess savings of 14.4 trillion yuan was generated, with a projected decrease in the savings rate to around 14.6% in 2025 [5][26] - A 1 percentage point decrease in the savings rate could release approximately 0.9 trillion yuan into wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][26] - The potential for an additional 2-4 trillion yuan in activated funds flowing into non-fixed deposit investments in 2026 is anticipated [5][26] Group 3: Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The wealth management industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% in 2026, expanding by 2.6 trillion yuan to reach 36 trillion yuan, despite challenges from valuation adjustments [29] - Low-volatility fixed-income products will remain the core offering, while the growth of rights-based wealth management products is expected to accelerate [30][31] - The supply of long-term closed-end wealth management products is anticipated to increase due to the need for stable liabilities and the development of retirement financial products [36] Group 4: Market Impact and Fund Inflows - Wealth management institutions are projected to increase their equity asset allocation by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% in 2026, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds to the capital market [6][39] - The demand for bond ETFs and rights-based funds is expected to grow rapidly, driven by external collaborations and the need for wealth management institutions to enhance returns [6][39] - The third phase of public fund fee reform may lead to increased allocation of bond ETFs by wealth management institutions, while short-term pure bond funds may face redemption pressures [6][39] Group 5: Supply-Side Reform Opportunities - The supply-side reform in wealth management is accelerating, with smaller banks exiting the wealth management business, creating opportunities for leading institutions to increase market share [49] - The market share of the top five wealth management institutions is expected to rise as regulatory tightening continues to limit the issuance of new wealth management licenses [49]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights five key trends in the life insurance industry to watch for by 2026, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the sector [1] Group 1: New Business Growth - New business continues to experience rapid growth, embracing the "deposit migration" and the "new era of health insurance" [1] Group 2: Cost and Value Dynamics - The rigid costs associated with new business are further declining, enhancing the persuasive power of new business value [1] Group 3: Product and Quality Diversification - The product structure of new business is becoming more diversified, with notable optimization in the business structure of high-quality companies, leading to differentiation in new business quality compared to peers [1] Group 4: Customer Segmentation and Operational Upgrades - The customer base is migrating upwards, providing an opportunity for the industry to upgrade and optimize its operational models and talent [1] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is concentrating around companies with strong life insurance operational capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle by 2026, driven by improved liability trends and a return to growth-oriented valuation logic for high-quality companies [2][3][8]. Group 1: Life Insurance Trends - Five key trends in the life insurance industry are anticipated: 1) Continued rapid growth of new business, embracing "deposit migration" and a "new era of health insurance"; 2) Further reduction in the rigid costs of new business, enhancing its value proposition; 3) Diversification in new business product structures, with significant optimization in quality companies; 4) Upward migration of customer tiers, prompting upgrades in operational models and talent; 5) Concentration of competition among companies with strong life insurance operational capabilities [3][8][9]. - The "deposit migration" phenomenon is expected to become more pronounced, with savings-type insurance products gaining traction in a low-interest-rate environment, providing a more attractive yield compared to bank deposits [9][11]. - The health insurance sector is projected to recover, with new business premiums returning to growth by 2026, supported by policy reforms and the removal of operational bottlenecks [11][41]. Group 2: Financial Insurance Insights - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to see stable growth in auto insurance premiums, with head companies optimizing their business structures to improve underwriting profitability [33][35]. - Non-auto insurance is anticipated to experience moderate growth, with health insurance emerging as a significant growth driver, particularly in light of ongoing regulatory reforms [40][41]. - The industry is positioned to replicate successful overseas expansion strategies seen in Japan's insurance sector during the 1980s, leveraging China's Belt and Road Initiative and the growing overseas presence of Chinese enterprises [44][46]. Group 3: Hong Kong Life Insurance - The life insurance business in Hong Kong is expected to regain investment appeal as foreign attitudes towards Chinese assets shift, coinciding with a new growth phase in the mainland insurance market [4][50]. - The competitive landscape is likely to favor high-quality Hong Kong insurers, as they adapt to the evolving dynamics of the mainland market and capitalize on upward customer migration trends [51].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle by 2026, with a shift in investment logic from "seeking revaluation of existing business" to "valuing growth potential" [1][2] - The life insurance sector is anticipated to experience five key trends leading to a high-quality development phase, with leading companies likely to regain their market position [2] - The property insurance sector is projected to see stable profitability in auto insurance, while non-auto insurance and overseas expansion will contribute positively [3] Group 1: Life Insurance Industry - The life insurance sector is expected to see rapid growth in new business, embracing trends like "deposit migration" and a "new era of health insurance" [2] - The cost of new business is anticipated to decrease, enhancing the persuasive value of new business [2] - The structure of new business products is becoming more diversified, with leading companies optimizing their business structures and differentiating the quality of new business from peers [2] Group 2: Property Insurance Industry - Auto insurance is expected to see slow premium growth, with leading companies optimizing their business structure to improve underwriting profitability [3] - Non-auto insurance growth is projected to decelerate, while health insurance is expected to become a significant growth driver [3] - The current internal and external environment of China's property insurance industry shares structural similarities with Japan's post-1980s property insurance, presenting historical opportunities for successful overseas expansion [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Life Insurance - Hong Kong life insurance companies, such as AIA, have faced declines due to foreign concerns about Chinese assets and the outlook for the mainland insurance industry [4] - By 2026, as foreign attitudes towards Chinese assets shift and the mainland insurance industry enters a golden development period, Hong Kong life insurers may see improved growth trends and business structures [4] - The upward migration of customer demographics in the industry may make mainland business a significant investment highlight for Hong Kong insurers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The current financial system in China is significantly exhibiting characteristics of a "Big Central Bank," with the People's Bank of China reshaping the asset management industry's ecology and operational logic through various monetary tools and macro-prudential management frameworks [4] - By 2026, the bond market is expected to see a structural shift where large commercial banks will enhance their market pricing influence due to closer liquidity ties with the central bank, while public funds and smaller banks will face constraints in bond investment, particularly in long-term securities [4] - The equity market is anticipated to maintain a slow bull trend, supported by a continued trend of "deposit migration" among residents, potentially bringing in an incremental capital of 4-5 trillion yuan into asset management products and direct market investments [4] Summary by Sections Central Bank and Banking - The central bank is narrowing the interest rate corridor by introducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy rate, which allows for more flexible monetary control [8][12] - The central bank's operations, including the buying and selling of government bonds, are aimed at stabilizing long-term bond rates and managing market expectations [13][14] Banking Wealth Management - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to benefit the growth of wealth management scale, as traditional savings rates decline and residents seek higher returns [66] - The scale of bank wealth management products is projected to continue growing, with the current estimated size around 33 trillion yuan [70] - Despite a downward trend in performance benchmarks for newly issued wealth management products, they are still expected to remain above deposit rates, driving banks to enhance their middle-income business [75] Insurance Asset Management - The report highlights the potential for "low guaranteed + high floating" products, particularly dividend insurance, to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, as they help insurers manage liability costs effectively [108] - By 2025, insurance capital is expected to increase its allocation to equity assets, with a focus on high-dividend investment opportunities and long-term bonds to mitigate asset-liability duration mismatch risks [123][124]

证券时报记者黄钰霖 大财富管理不仅是连接资金端与资产端的关键枢纽，更是金融服务实体经济、实现普惠的重要载体。在 利率市场化深入推进、无风险收益率持续下行以及居民财富结构转型的多重背景下，如何回归本源，通 过专业能力为客户创造长期、稳健的价值，已成为银行等资管机构面临的核心议题。 近日，在"第十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会"分论坛"中国银行业年会"上，国信证 券经济研究所所长助理王剑主持主题为"做正确的事：共创大财富管理长期价值"的圆桌对话，农银理财 副总裁刘湘成、中银理财副总裁吴金梅、渣打北亚区首席投资策略总监郑子丰等展开了深入讨论。 他们表示，展望未来，全球化资产配置能力、数字化经营能力，以及专业的人才队伍将成为资管机构穿 越周期的"三驾马车"。 存款搬家趋势延续 近年来，中国居民财富总量持续快速增长，内部结构却迎来显著调整，"存款搬家"现象尤为突出——资 金正从传统银行储蓄向理财、基金及资本市场转移。这一趋势既是市场关注的焦点，更是大财富管理行 业发展的直接动力。 在与会嘉宾看来，存款搬家并非短期的市场脉冲，而是低利率环境下居民资产配置优化的必然结果。 刘湘成判断，当前"存款搬家"仍处 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 杜宇 12月3日，据工商银行APP显示，该行正在发售的2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单，起步门槛标注为"100万元起存"，而年利率仅为1.55%。而最新的工行 三年期定存产品的年利率，标注为"年利率最高可至1.55%"，而定存的起步门槛仅为50元。 | | 存入大额存单 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.55% | 3年 100万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100436) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.55% | 3年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第三期3年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100336) -可转让 | | | 1.20% | 1年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第六期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100612) -商户 | | | 1.20% | 1年 50万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第五期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100512) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.20% ...

1万元起存 据了解，当前市场上各家银行大额存单起步门槛基本为20万元。 12月3日，据工商银行APP显示，该行正在发售的2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单，起步门槛标注 为"100万元起存"，而年利率仅为1.55%。而最新的工行三年期定存产品的年利率，标注为"年利率最高 可至1.55%"，而定存的起步门槛仅为50元。 | | 存入大额存单 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.55% | 3年 100万元起存 | | | 年利塞 | 2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100436) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.55% | 3年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第三期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100336) -可转让 | | | 1.20% | 1年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第六期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100612) -商户 | | | 1.20% | 1年 50万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第五期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100512 ...