Core Points - The US dollar is experiencing a decline as the week begins, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping 0.2% on September 29, continuing its previous trend [1] - The risk of a US government shutdown looms, with both parties maintaining their positions, while important economic data, particularly the monthly employment report, is set to be released this week [1] - The Japanese yen is appreciating against the dollar, with upcoming economic data and central bank officials' speeches expected to influence market expectations regarding a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index reached its lowest level since 2022 two weeks ago but has since rebounded [1] - Traders are closely monitoring whether the developments in the US and Japan will affect expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - The recent rebound of the dollar is attributed to a decrease in expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as Chairman Powell indicated challenges ahead due to risks in the labor market and inflation outlook [1]

Core Points - The US dollar has experienced a decline at the start of a week filled with key events, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping 0.2% on Monday, marking two consecutive days of decline [1] - The risk of a US government shutdown is increasing, with both parties maintaining a hardline stance and unwilling to compromise [1] - Key US economic data will be released this week, culminating in the monthly non-farm payroll report on Friday [1] - The Japanese yen is leading gains against the US dollar, with Japan set to release economic data and hold central bank official speeches, alongside the ruling party's election of new leadership on Saturday [1] - Traders are closely monitoring these developments for their potential impact on market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts or Bank of Japan rate hikes, which would influence the movements of both the dollar and yen [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index had previously hit its lowest level since 2022 two weeks ago but has since rebounded [1] Market Insights - According to Robert Subramaniam, head of global market research at Nomura Singapore, the dollar's weakness during Asian trading hours is partly due to the high risk of a US government shutdown later this week [3] - The recent rebound of the dollar is attributed to investors lowering their expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the path ahead for policymakers is likely to be challenging due to risks in the labor market and inflation outlook, leading to reduced bets on policy easing [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 日本央行前委员会成员樱井诚表示，"日本央行最早可能在下个月提高基准利率"，这支持了市场对央行 即将加息的猜测。这一决定将在很大程度上取决于当局所寻求的确定性程度，"但到那时经济数据可能 会很强劲，因为关税影响的显现会推迟。" 随着通胀保持稳定，经济显示出弹性，尽管美国的贸易政策震动全球商业，市场对央行在10月会议上加 息的预期一直在增强。由于不确定性仍然很高，樱井诚说，不排除官员们要等到12月才对关税影响更有 信心这一可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its economic and inflation forecasts in the upcoming quarterly assessment, potentially paving the way for an interest rate hike in October, with a market expectation of about 50% probability for such a move [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Japan is expected to review its current economic growth forecast of 0.6% for the fiscal year and 0.7% for fiscal year 2026 during the meeting on October 29-30 [3]. - Recent data shows that Japan's annualized economic growth rate for the second quarter reached 2.2%, exceeding initial estimates, primarily due to robust consumption [3]. Inflation Projections - The Bank of Japan anticipates a core consumer inflation rate of 2.7% in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 1.8% in 2026 [3]. - The potential inflation rate in Japan is currently estimated at around 1.7%, with a possibility of reaching the Bank's 2% target if the five-year inflation expectations from the short-term business survey rise from 2.3% to 2.5% [4]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, but two committee members proposed raising it to 0.75%, which led to an increase in Japanese government bond yields [3]. - There is a divergence among economists regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike, with expectations ranging from October to January of the following year [4].

日本内阁官房长官、自民党总裁候选人林芳正（Yoshimasa Hayashi）向路透社表示，日本央行逐步加息 的计划，与政府的经济政策思路基本一致。 当被问及"美联储降息是否会推升日元兑美元汇率，进而损害日本出口依赖型经济"时，林芳正称，日本 政策制定者已不再受此类固有假设的束缚。 他在上周日的采访中表示，日本传统上对"强势日元"的抵触情绪已有所减弱。这种情绪主要存在于出口 企业中，且有时会引发政府干预。 "相反，我们看到日元持续贬值，叠加俄乌冲突后油价上涨，这引发的是成本推动型通胀，而非需求驱 动型通胀，"他说道。 林芳正指出，尽管2022年俄乌冲突初期出现的进口成本飙升已有所缓解，但日本国内工资水平与大米价 格仍在上涨。 这些言论凸显出，政策制定者的关注焦点正转向"日元疲软及由此引发的通胀高企"——这已成为日本面 临的核心问题。这与近年来的传统认知形成巨大转变：此前，"强势日元"与"通缩"被视为拖累日本经济 增长的最大障碍。 日本央行加息决心 自民党领导层选举引发市场高度关注，且推动日本国债收益率上涨，因市场认为下任领袖可能会扩大财 政支出。 林芳正表示，若当选首相，他领导的政府将制定一套政策措施：一方面 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government, represented by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, aligns with the Bank of Japan's plan to gradually raise interest rates, indicating a shift in policy perspective regarding the yen's strength and its impact on the economy [1][2] - Hayashi noted a decrease in resistance to a strong yen among policymakers, highlighting that the current inflation is driven by rising costs rather than demand, particularly due to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's current interest rate stands at 0.5%, with intentions to raise it to a neutral level, reflecting a commitment to address inflation that has exceeded the 2% target for three consecutive years [2] Group 2 - Hayashi's government plans to implement measures to alleviate the economic impact of rising living costs while increasing disaster relief spending, emphasizing the need for fiscal responsibility without large-scale stimulus [3] - In contrast, rival candidate Sanae Takaichi advocates for fiscal expansion as part of an economic recovery plan, indicating differing approaches within the ruling party [3] - A recent poll shows Hayashi with a support rate of 11%, trailing behind other candidates, which may influence the political landscape and subsequent economic policies [3]

新华财经北京9月19日电财经网站Investinglive分析师Justin Low表示，日本央行的利率决议罕见地出现 了反对意见，委员田村直树和高田创主张加息25个基点。 在今日之前，市场普遍认为日本央行年底前加息的可能性微乎其微，特别是美日贸易协定给日本央行原 定计划设置了障碍，这正是日本央行此前反复强调需要保持谨慎的理由。 日本央行政策委员出现如此罕见的分歧意见，令市场开始审视日本央行内部是否正在形成更强硬的共 识，倾向于在明年之前启动加息。 目前交易员对日本央行10月加息25个基点的概率定价约为47%，而到12月会议前的累计加息幅度预期约 为18个基点。 市场现在需要等待日本央行行长植田和男稍后的新闻发布会，以获取更多关于政策思路的明确信号。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

·穆迪：日本央行9月料按兵不动，或延至2026年1月加息 【机构分析】 ·花旗策略师预计，美联储降息步伐将较为缓慢，未来几个月长端美国国债的需求料将维持疲软态势。 未来几个月，美联储相对缓慢的货币宽松步伐，预计将对长端美国国债的需求形成限制。 ·德国商业银行分析师称，惠誉已将法国主权信用评级从 AA - 调降至 A+，展望稳定 。此次降级源于法 国债务比率高且攀升、财政碎片化妨碍整顿、财政记录欠佳及 2025 年高额赤字等情况 。由于市场对评 级下调缺乏统一预期，法国评级遭降对该国国债（OATs）是个冲击，投资者可能正为后续几周其他评 级机构不利评级举动做准备 。鉴于法国国债当下交易价格已显著低于同属 AA 级的其他债券，评级下 调的实质影响力或许相对有限 。 ·投资管理公司 Payden & Rygel 认为，美联储本周选择降息 25 基点或者 50 基点，属于 "次要分歧" 。当 下劳动力市场处于脆弱的均衡状态，这和 2024 年的状况大相径庭 。为防止这种脆弱平衡瓦解，美联储 理应按照理事沃勒近期演讲提议的那样，"尽快着手降息" 。按照该公司对未来 12 到 15 个月的经济前 景预测，联邦基金利率应当 ...

根据最新调查显示，多数关注日本央行政策的分析师预计，日本央行将在明年1月之前上调基准利率。 不过，与此前相比，下个月加息的预期比例有所下降，这可能与近期政治和经济环境不确定性增加有 关，从而延后了加息时点。 在下周五，日本央行行长主持的政策委员会会议上，市场普遍不预期会立即调整利率。然而，一项针对 50名经济学家的调查显示，有88%的受访者认为，日本央行将在明年1月底前将利率从0.5%上调。10月 仍然是最受关注的加息时点，但支持率已从上次调查的42%降至36%。 尽管市场预期美日利差缩小，但日元仍相对疲软。约四分之三的受访者将其归因于日本央行的谨慎态 度，13%认为原因另有他处，其余人表示难以判断。 分析人士将重点关注日本央行对风险状况以及实现稳健通胀目标的表述。央行将在9月19日公布政策决 定后举行新闻发布会。部分研究机构分析员指出："9月会议关键在于观察下一次加息信号出现的时机， 以及经济稳定性和成本推动型通胀压力的警觉程度。今年内加息的可能性约为60%。" 近期的不确定性因素促使一些金融机构将加息时间推迟至10月以后，理由是市场和经济环境的波动加 大。部分机构分析指出，日本央行可能会继续采取观望策略， ...

虽然在下周五日本央行行长植田和男领导的委员会做出政策决定时，没有人预测会有利率变动，但根据 一项调查，50 名接受调查的经济学家中有 88%认为，到 1 月底之前，日本央行将把利率从 0.5%上调。 10 月仍是最受青睐的加息时间选择，但该选项的支持率从上一次 7 月政策会议后的调查中所占的 42% 下降到了此次调查中的 36%。 智通财经APP获悉，据一项调查，大多数关注日本央行动向的人分析师预计，日本央行将在明年 1 月之 前上调基准利率;大部分人预计下月将加息，但比例较此前调查有所下降，因为首相石破茂辞职后，政 治不确定性加剧，这使得加息时间可能有所推迟。 展望未来，12 月期间有关加息的预期有所升温，目前有 22%的人预计会在当月实施加息，这一比例较 之前的 11%有所上升。约 30%的人预计加息将在 1 月进行，这一比例与上一次调查中的 33%基本相 同。 石破茂即将离职一事已促使下个月将展开一场自民党领导层的竞选活动，随后还将举行一次议会投票， 以选出下一任首相。 法国巴黎银行等机构已将加息时间推迟至 10 月以后，其理由是政治局势愈发不稳定，且美联储加大了 采取连续降息措施的可能性，以支撑美国经 ...