Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the electricity sector [3] Core Viewpoints - March electricity consumption growth was 4.8%, highlighting the importance of coal power upgrades and flexible regulation value [10][12] - The national electricity consumption in March reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [12] - The new three-year coal power upgrade plan emphasizes deep peak regulation and energy-saving carbon reduction [11][12] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In March, the electricity consumption by industry was as follows: primary industry 10.6 billion kWh (9.9% growth), secondary industry 557.8 billion kWh (3.8% growth), tertiary industry 148.4 billion kWh (8.4% growth), and urban and rural residents 111.4 billion kWh (5.0% growth) [12][66] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to March was 238.46 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [66] Power Generation - In March, industrial power generation was 778 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [12] - Coal power generation in March decreased by 2.3%, while hydroelectric and nuclear power generation increased by 9.5% and 23.0%, respectively [12][10] Coal Power Upgrade Plan - The new coal power upgrade plan (2025-2027) aims to enhance existing units and establish new ones with improved performance metrics [11][12] - Key upgrade indicators include minimum output levels, load change rates, and carbon emission reductions [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on coal power sector opportunities, with coal prices dropping to 674 RMB/ton, supporting improved profitability [13] - Recommended stocks include Huadian International, Waneng Power, and Zhejiang Energy, among others [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has a strong integrated coal-electricity-aluminum business model with strategic advantages in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Henan, indicating medium to long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The company has established a competitive advantage with 800,000 tons/year capacity in Xinjiang and 900,000 tons/year in Yunnan, achieving significant cost advantages [2] - Xinjiang's production is stable with self-sufficient power covering 90% of electricity needs, while Yunnan benefits from high green electricity ratios and low electricity prices during peak water periods [2] Group 2: Coal Business - The company operates in a key coal production area with a total capacity of 8.55 million tons/year, maintaining strong profitability despite rising costs [2] - The average selling price of coal is projected to be around 1,020 RMB/ton in 2024, with production expected to recover to 7.2 million tons in 2025 [2] Group 3: Aluminum Foil Business - The company has a total aluminum foil capacity of 140,000 tons/year and is expanding with an additional 110,000 tons/year under construction, showcasing competitive advantages in technology and environmental standards [3] - In 2024, the aluminum foil sales volume reached 69,600 tons, generating revenue of 4.015 billion RMB, with a net profit of 64 million RMB [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's trend towards environmental protection and carbon reduction, with projected net profits of 4.92 billion RMB, 6.01 billion RMB, and 6.41 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [4] - The company is rated as a "buy" based on its integrated business model and growth prospects [4]

• 中国能建 2024 年新签合同额超 1.4 万亿元，海外业务达 3,200 亿元，同比 增长近 15%，电力能源领域占比超 80%，新能源和综合智慧能源占据一半以 上，为未来发展提供保障。 • 公司积极布局氢能和储能，与宁德时代合作推进电化学储能，葛洲坝进军 抽水蓄能和水电，湖北应城 300 兆瓦压缩空气储能项目创世界第一，并计 划在山东泰安、酒泉等地布局多个压缩空气储能项目，预计 2025-2026 年 投产。 • 中国能建计划投资约 1,500 亿元，优先投资战略性新兴产业，如新能源、 抽水蓄能、特高压、信息数字化等，占比超 60%，投资回报率严格控制在 7%以上，创新产业或示范项目可低于 7%。 • 公司积极布局 IDC 及算力基础设施，已布局八大数据中心节点中的五个， 甘肃庆阳东数西算项目为标志性项目，通过源网荷储一体化，成本降低 10%-15%。 • 公司通过自有电站、虚拟电网、长协电价及源网荷储综合调配，实现成本 优势，并积极发展绿色能源，降低运营成本，绿电是未来行业发展的重要 组成部分。 • 公司已完成国内八大算力中心节点的前期安排，五个节点投入运行，甘肃 庆阳占当地市场份额 70%以上，并 ...

Q&A 中国铝业 20250319 摘要 中国铝业在产业链布局方面的优势和现状如何？ 中国铝业在铝产业链上的布局非常完善，涵盖了从铝土矿、氧化铝到电解铝的 完整产业链。公司拥有 3,000 万吨的铝土矿资源，2000 多万吨的氧化铝产能， 以及 3.2GW 的自有电力。此外，公司在宁夏拥有四个煤矿，每年产量约 1,300 万吨。2024 年，中国铝业旗下包头铝业和青海分公司逐步投产，使得上市公司 体内的电解铝产能达到 773 万吨左右，并参股广西华磊 40 万吨电解铝项目，总 权益产能超过 430 万吨。2025 年 3 月，公司公告将包头铝业旗下华银三期股权 • 中国铝业电解铝总权益产能约 773 万吨，受益于包头铝业和青海分公司投 产，并参股广西华磊项目，权益产能超 430 万吨。2025 年预计新增 8 万吨 权益产能，电解铝业务是公司核心增长点。 • 公司氧化铝名义总产能 2,226 万吨，但部分停滞，氧化铝自给率超 60%， 受氧化锌价格下跌影响较小。电解铅总产能 773 吨，2025 年将通过收购增 加 8 吨，氧化铝业务利润贡献或将减少。 • 能源板块以宁夏煤炭（年产约 1,300 万吨）和发电 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power and utilities sector, with specific stock recommendations including "Buy" and "Hold" for various companies [1][7]. Core Insights - The sector is experiencing a shift in market sentiment, leading to a decline in performance despite ongoing green electricity policies being implemented across provinces [1][2]. - The overall valuation of the sector is decreasing, with the current PE ratio at 16.43, down from 19.17 a year ago, indicating a potential investment opportunity as valuations normalize [2][20]. - The report highlights the stability of the nuclear and hydropower sectors, suggesting that they are good candidates for investment during market downturns [6][7]. Market Performance Summary - The overall performance of the utilities sector saw a decline of 0.17% during the week of February 10-16, 2025, underperforming compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [2][10]. - The sector's PE ratio has decreased from 16.48 to 16.43 over the past week, while the PB ratio remains stable at 1.71 [20][21]. - Among sub-sectors, thermal power and wind power saw declines of 0.96% and 1.09%, respectively, while electric energy services increased by 1.55% [2][10]. Individual Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks for the week included Guang'an Aizhong (+22.48%) and Kaitian Gas (+18.09%), while the worst performers were Zhongmin Energy (-6.49%) and Jinkai New Energy (-5.92%) [3][24]. - Specific stock recommendations include "Buy" for Guodian Power and "Hold" for China Nuclear Power, indicating a focus on companies with stable fundamentals [6][7]. Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives include enhancing the data management for green certificate issuance and promoting the development of green hydrogen projects in Gansu [31][32]. - The report notes the adjustment of biomass power generation pricing in Sichuan to align with coal-fired power generation rates, which may impact the competitiveness of biomass projects [32]. - The exploration of cross-regional electricity trading in Shandong aims to facilitate surplus green electricity cooperation, indicating a strategic shift towards renewable energy integration [33][34].