Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.09% to 97.85, indicating a slight strengthening of the dollar against a basket of currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced a decline, with the euro falling by 0.12% to 1.1695 against the dollar [1] - The British pound saw a minor increase of 0.02%, trading at 1.3531 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar rose by 0.43% to 0.6613 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.03% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.4600 [1] - The dollar also gained 0.13% against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3863 [1] - Additionally, the dollar strengthened by 0.24% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.7992 [1]

每经AI快讯，9月10日，美元指数下挫，现跌0.11%，报97.65点。 ...

姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，持仓量变化不大。宏观层面，美元指数日内 下行，利好铜价。产业层面，SMM 报道，日内采购情绪进一步走弱， 进口货源仍未消化，持货商继续低价出货，沪铜现货升水进一步走 跌。短期关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡，持仓量有所上升。宏观层面，美元指数日内 走弱，带动有色板块偏强运行。产业层面，随着铝价上涨，下游接货 意愿较低。技术上，关注 20800 关口压力。 沪镍 今日镍价震荡上行 ...

被视为通胀数据的"领先指标"预测，即将公布的美国8月CPI同比增幅将略高于市场普遍预期，这为美元 带来了温和的上行风险。 | Release Day | Pre-Release | Survey | Actual Print | Accurate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Fixing | Median | (Unrounded) | Signal? | | 9/11/2025 | 2.91 | 2.90 | | | | 8/12/2025 | 2.77 | 2.80 | 2.705 | TRUE | | 7/15/2025 | 2.67 | 2.60 | 2.669 | TRUE | | 6/11/2025 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.355 | FALSE 7 | | 5/13/2025 | 2.31 | 2.40 | 2.311 | TRUE | | 4/10/2025 | 2.46 | 2.50 | 2.391 | TRUE | | 3/12/2025 | 2.89 | 2.90 | 2.822 | TRUE | | 2/12/2025 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

国家外汇管理局9月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，截至8月末，中国外汇储备规模为33222亿美元，较7 月末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。外汇储备规模继6月末后再次站上3.3万亿美元关口。 对于当月外汇储备规模变动，外汇局指出，8月受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影 响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇 储备规模上升。 对于8月美元指数下滑，多数市场机构分析美元指数走势受当月公布的美国经济数据走弱、市场对美联 储降息预期再度升温等因素影响。过去一个月，美国非农就业人数大幅低于市场预期，反映出近期美国 劳动力市场疲软；美国通胀水平企稳，缓解了市场对美国通胀的担忧；美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔 央行年会上的发言，则进一步强化了市场对美联储在9月降息的预期。 往后看，美联储降息节奏仍有较大不确定性。北京大学国民经济研究中心认为，尽管市场对9月美联储 降息预期升温，但4月以来美国通胀率持续上升、失业率依然相对较低，实际经济数据并不支持降息开 启。 目前，我国外汇储备规模已连续第21个月保持在3.2万亿美元以上。外汇局指出，我国经济运行稳中有 进，展现 ...

本报记者 刘琪 9月7日，国家外汇管理局（以下简称"外汇局"）公布2025年8月末外汇储备规模数据。数据显示，截至2025年8月末，我国 外汇储备规模为33222亿美元，较7月末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。 外汇局表示，2025年8月份，受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格 总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，截至8月底，中国外汇储备余额再次刷新2016年以 来新高，表明中国防范化解各种冲击的能力继续提升。 从汇率来看，Wind资讯数据显示，8月份，美元指数下跌2.21%。非美货币普遍升值，其中，日元、欧元、英镑对美元汇 率分别上涨2.46%、2.37%、2.25%。由于外储以美元计价，非美货币升值增加了经汇率折算后的外汇储备规模。 此外，9月7日更新的黄金储备数据显示，截至8月末，我国黄金储备为7402万盎司（2538.43亿美元），较7月末增加6万盎 司，我国央行已经连续第10个月增持黄金。 管涛认为，在外部环境复杂程度明显提升背景下，中国国际储备资产多元化 ...

Core Insights - As of the end of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,222 billion USD, an increase of 29.9 billion USD from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1][4]. Group 1 - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a combination of exchange rate adjustments and changes in asset prices [7]. - The stable performance of China's economy demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, which supports the maintenance of foreign exchange reserves at a stable level [1].

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $332.2154 billion, an increase of $29.9 billion from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as changes in major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and an overall rise in global financial asset prices [2] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month, with a total of 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2,098 tons) as of the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (about 1.7 tons) [1] - Since November of the previous year, China has cumulatively purchased 1.22 million ounces (approximately 38 tons) of gold [1] - Gold has emerged as one of the strongest-performing major commodities this year, with a price increase exceeding 30% and reaching a historical high recently [3] Group 3: Market Influences - Factors such as central bank purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and political pressures on the Fed have contributed to the recent surge in gold prices [3] - The World Gold Council reports that geopolitical risks will continue to support demand from official sectors, despite a slowdown in the accumulation of gold by central banks as prices rise [5]

2025.09. 07 本文字数：2529，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 封图 | AI生成 9月7日，国家外汇管理局公布的数据显示，截至2025年8月末，我国外汇储备规模站上3.3万亿美元，创下2016年1月以来新高。 外汇局表示，8月，受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等 因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 与此同时，央行连续10个月增持黄金储备，8月净增持6万盎司，占外汇储备的比重升至7.64%的历史新高。 外储规模的增长，背后是多重因素共同作用的结果。中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对第一财经表示，受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因 素影响，美元指数重回下跌态势，全球金融资产价格总体上涨，非美元货币对美元升值和资产价格上涨对我国外储产生正估值效应。 东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青将外储规模上升的原因概括为两点。首先，美联储释放出清晰的降息信号，这一罕见举动直接引发美元指数快速下跌，当 月跌幅达2.2%。由于我国外汇储备中包含大量非美元资产，美元指数的下跌使得这些非美元资产价格上涨，成为外储规模上升的主要推手 ...