美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上 岗，航空公司已经炸锅。美国运输部长达菲放出狠话：如果本周五前还谈不拢，就从周五开始对40个主 要机场削减10%的计划航班！这意味着全美航空即将陷入大混乱，航班大面积延误、取消就在眼前。避 险情绪瞬间点燃黄金！市场也不乏利空消息：美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于 市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指数 强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌 至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨 1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。需要提醒的是，但好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳 动力市场发生了实质性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有 助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。短期看，美元200日均线压力、美债收益率冲高，都会给金价 制造波动；但中期看，政府停摆无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the USD opened higher, reflecting a shift in market dynamics influenced by recent Federal Reserve actions and global economic conditions [1] Currency Exchange Rates - On November 6, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1218 against the USD, up from the previous closing of 7.1246 [1] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.1267 as of 9:30 AM [1] - The RMB's central parity against the USD was adjusted up by 36 basis points to 7.0865 [1] Dollar Index and Economic Context - As of 9:30 AM, the dollar index stood at 100.0394, indicating a recent increase [1] - The dollar index has strengthened due to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields following a hawkish stance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite a 25 basis point rate cut in October [1] - Weak economic fundamentals in major economies like the Eurozone and Japan have contributed to the overall poor performance of non-USD currencies, further supporting the dollar's strength [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has enhanced the dollar's safe-haven appeal [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been influenced by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market liquidity concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On November 4, international gold futures prices fell sharply, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to a low of $3931.30/oz, while COMEX silver futures closed at $46.90/oz [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic 36 days, causing market unease and impacting liquidity, which counteracts the effects of interest rate cuts in October [3][4]. - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Strength - The dollar index has surged past the 100 mark, supported by reduced interest rate cut expectations and the weakness of the euro and yen, as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their current policies [5]. - If the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity may improve as funds flow back into the market, potentially leading to a decrease in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy regarding gold trading, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to encourage on-exchange trading by exempting value-added tax for certain transactions, which may shift interest towards investment products like gold ETFs [6][7]. - The policy may negatively impact non-investment gold consumption due to increased costs, while the overall long-term price trajectory of gold is expected to remain stable despite short-term speculative behavior [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in actual interest rates and the cooling of rate cut expectations are primary factors behind the recent decline in gold prices, with short-term weakness anticipated if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [9][10]. - Long-term drivers for gold prices, such as central bank purchases and the ongoing trend of dollar credit expansion, are expected to provide upward momentum for gold [10].

美国联邦政府"停摆"天数创新高，引发部分投资者对美国经济基本面受到更多负面影响的担忧，加之美 元指数周三（5日）下跌，国际金价当天上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司 3992.9美元，涨幅为0.82%。 （总台央视记者 高岩） 编辑：王一帆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 100.16, while most non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro rose by 0.09% against the dollar, reaching 1.1493 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.24% to 1.3052 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.27% to 0.6506 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.29% against the dollar, with a rate of 154.1220 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a slight increase of 0.04% to 1.4108 against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc declined by 0.05% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.8102 [1]

来源：中国金融信息网 因美国政府"停摆"导致官方数据延迟，ADP就业报告成为焦点。数据显示，美国10月ADP就业人数新增 4.2万人，预期2.8万人，前值由-3.2万人修正至-2.9万人。 目前美联储政策制定者面临劳动力市场担忧与通胀风险上升的两难局面，若在ADP数据之后的系列数据 继续有助于缓解就业担忧，将支持美元走强。 ADP报告显示，就业增长从此前两个月的疲软状态中反弹，但反弹的范围并不广泛。教育和医疗保健、 贸易、运输和公用事业引领了增长。在专业商业服务、信息、休闲和酒店业，雇主连续第三个月裁员。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson称，自去年7月以来，私人雇主在10月首次增加了就业岗位，但与今 年早些时候的报告相比，招聘人数并不多。与此同时，一年多来，薪酬增长基本持平，表明供需变化是 平衡的。 编辑：王晓伟 数据公布后，美元小幅上涨。推动美元指数上行的动力源于美联储政策前景的谨慎转向。上周美联储主 席鲍威尔明确指出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维 持"观望"态度。超预期的ADP就业报告继续支撑投资者对年内再次降息的预期降温。 当前美元指数的波动 ...

Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index recently rebounded above 100 after being weak for six months, starting from a low of 96.6 in mid-September[2][5] - The rebound was influenced by political uncertainty in France and the hawkish stance of the FOMC in October, marking a significant turning point for the dollar index[2][5] - The current rise in the dollar index is expected to be short-lived due to anticipated economic data deterioration in the U.S. and a return to rate cut expectations[2][7] Group 2: Economic Factors - The remaining upward pressure on the dollar is primarily driven by political chaos in non-U.S. developed economies, while downward pressure stems from economic weakness in the U.S.[2][17] - The U.S. government shutdown has created significant downward pressure on the economy, complicating the outlook for economic fundamentals[7][19] - The expectation of further rate cuts is being priced in, with a total of 75 basis points (bp) anticipated for the year, including already realized cuts[6] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[19] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may exceed expectations, potentially leading to synchronized global easing and reduced long-term interest rate pressures[19] - The potential for manufacturing to return to the U.S. due to technological breakthroughs could significantly lower production costs and increase credit demand[19]

Group 1: Macro News - The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, approaching a record of 35 days [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 70.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.9% [2] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by January is 55.8%, with a 19.3% chance of no change and a 24.8% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - There is significant internal disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential rate cut in December [3] - The ongoing government shutdown is hindering the assessment of the U.S. macroeconomic situation due to the lack of key economic data [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have been adjusted, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar index, which has pressured precious metal prices [3] - The precious metals market currently lacks significant bullish factors, but there is some buying support during price pullbacks, indicating potential long-term buying interest [3]

美国政府延续停摆状态，重要的经济数据缺失，将导致美联储在后续货币政策的决策上更加谨慎，市场对美联储在12月降息预 期有所降温。 黄金方面： 据白宫官网，美国联邦政府停摆已经进入第36天，打破了2018年年底至2019年年初停摆35天的历史纪录，成为美国持续时间最 长的政府停摆。美国政府停摆将不利于改善美国的就业市场，虽然美国停摆期间非农就业人口数据没有公布，但是市场预期美 国就业市场难言乐观。 技术面：日线上，近期连续3个交易日行情冲高回落且收下影线较长影线，显示短期行情偏弱势。指标上看，行情仍然处于20日 均线上方运行，暗示下方有一定的支撑，短期不宜过分看空。日内关注上方62美元一线压力，下方关注59.50美元一线支撑。 美元指数： 美国政府停摆时间已经创造了历史，众多的重要数据缺失，极有可能导致美联储在货币政策方面更加谨慎。这也导致美联储官 员对于后续的货币政策分歧更加明显。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，美联储12月份降息预期降温以及避险情绪的降温将在短期令金价承压。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期行情偏弱势。4小时线上，行情跌破20日均线，短期空头占 优势。日内关 ...

美国政府停摆已持续35天，劳工部月度就业报告周五铁定缺席，投资者只能将希望寄托于周三出炉的 ADP全国就业报告。若10月ADP数据大幅不及预期（市场共识约+2.5万），将坐实劳动力市场降温信 号，12月降息概率或瞬间回升至80%以上，金价有望借机反弹；反之，若数据超预期，美元将继续高歌 猛进，黄金恐再探3900美元整数关口。此外，财政部周三还将公布季度再融资计划，巨额发债若推高长 端收益率，黄金承压将雪上加霜。短期内，ADP报告将成为决定金价生死的关键节点——弱于预期则空 头回补，强于预期则空头继续碾压。但放眼长期，全球央行购金势头不减、中东地缘风险暗流涌动、通 胀粘性仍存，黄金作为终极避险资产的战略价值并未动摇。投资者不妨在3900美元附近埋伏低吸机会， 一旦避险情绪反转，多头反攻或一触即发。此外，投资者还需关注美国10月ISM非制造业PMI数据，市 场预期为50.8。另外，留意美国最高法院对特朗普"对等关税"合法性的审判。 政府停摆或创历史最长，数据真空放大不确定性美国政府停摆已持续一个月，本周可能成为有史以来最 长的一次，劳工统计局关键数据包括非农就业报告全部暂停发布。投资者只能转而盯紧周三ADP民间就 ...