【白银期货最新行情】 6月3日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 8456 2.85% 547586 370146 澳洲联储 5 月货币政策会议纪要表明，董事会认为降息 25 个基点的理由更有力，更倾向于谨慎和可预 测的政策。政策制定者强调，美国的贸易政策对全球前景构成了重大的不利影响，但尚未影响澳大利亚 经济，但是，他们并不认为需要 50 个基点。 澳大利亚储备银行助理行长莎拉·亨特 周二警告称，"美国更高的关税将拖累全球经济。亨特还指出，更 高的不确定性可能会抑制澳大利亚的投资、产出和就业。然而，他补充说，澳大利亚的出口商相对有能 力度过这场风暴，并假设中国当局将通过财政刺激来支持他们的经济。 【交易策略】 白银期货开盘后迅速冲高至8577点。此轮行情中，由于端午假期前避免持仓过周的策略考量，使得此前 在8250点布局的多单未能持有至最优盈利点。受消息面利好推动，黄金价格大幅攀升，进而带动白银同 步走强。然而，在白银此番上涨之后，需警惕中期趋势的潜在变化，因其可能蕴含中长线下跌的风险。 下方目标位可关注8400点及8250点。 欧盟 对特朗普将美国对钢铁和铝征收双倍关税 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since August 2022 and the fourth rate cut in the last six meetings [1][4] - The central bank has significantly revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8%, indicating a serious economic downturn [1][4] - Political instability and trade pressures are cited as major factors contributing to the economic challenges, including the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol and potential tariffs from the Trump administration [1][4] Group 2 - Following the central bank's decision, the KOSPI index increased by 1.7%, while the Korean won depreciated by 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 1381.40 [2] - The central bank's monetary policy statement emphasizes the need to maintain a dovish stance to mitigate economic growth risks while closely monitoring domestic and international policy changes [4] - Economic fundamentals have deteriorated sharply, with a surprising 0.1% contraction in GDP in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth since Q4 2020 [4][6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Congress passed a fiscal and tax reform reconciliation bill, projected to increase government debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with current debt exceeding $36 trillion[3] - The market sentiment is mixed due to concerns over the deficit, leading to a further decline in the U.S. dollar index[9] - Historical data indicates that during dollar depreciation phases, non-U.S. equities tend to outperform U.S. equities, and commodities like copper, gold, and oil show upward trends[9] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, with the implementation deadline pushed to July 9 after negotiations[2] - The ongoing tariff discussions are seen as part of Trump's negotiation strategy rather than a definitive policy shift[2] - The focus is shifting from tariffs to fiscal stimulus, although concerns about the deficit complicate market reactions[9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 are projected at 227,000[23] - The April core PCE price index year-on-year is reported at 2.5%, indicating a slight decrease from previous levels[23] - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.1% increase in the April pending home sales index[23]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have been rising since the beginning of the month, with significant movements occurring this week, particularly in ultra-long-term bonds. The active unwinding of yen carry trades has reached its highest level since 2012, which may impact U.S. stocks and bonds. There is a concern that if the sell-off of dollar assets leads to capital flowing back to Japan, it could affect U.S.-Japan trade negotiations regarding "financial terms" [1][5]. Summary by Sections JGB Yield Movements - JGB yields have been consistently rising since the start of the month, with notable changes occurring this week, especially in ultra-long-term bonds. On May 20, the yield curve shifted from flat to steep, with 20-year and 30-year yields jumping by 13 and 12 basis points, respectively, contributing nearly half of the month's cumulative increase. This movement does not correlate with the trends in ultra-long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2][4]. Market Factors and Economic Context - The fundamental factors do not adequately explain the yield movements. Japan's real GDP contracted in Q1, and while core inflation has increased, it remains stable due to weakening service inflation. There is limited risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, and no inflation data was released prior to the yield movements. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies have led the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate hikes [3][4]. Auction Results and Debt Concerns - The catalyst for the recent yield spike was the poor auction results for 20-year JGBs, marking the worst performance since 2012. This has heightened concerns about government debt, especially as the Japanese government discusses fiscal stimulus to address external demand pressures. With a government debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%, any borrowing during a rate hike cycle could exacerbate unsustainable debt risks. The draft budget for FY2025 indicates that debt redemption and interest payments will consume 15.3% and 9.1% of government spending, respectively, increasing the pressure on social security payments [4][5]. Broader Economic Implications - The yield movements reflect similar challenges faced by developed economies, where monetary policy is constrained and fiscal solutions are difficult to implement. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragmentation hinder a return to low inflation and low interest rates. The central banks, as primary buyers, struggle to expand their balance sheets to absorb the increased supply of bonds, leading to rising long-term interest rate risks. Inflation and credit risks will highlight the value of gold as an investment [4]. Potential Impact on U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - The unwinding of yen carry trades and the pressure on dollar assets may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. There are calls for the BOJ to increase JGB purchases to stabilize market liquidity, which could lead to increased allocation pressures for state-owned financial institutions. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) holds approximately half of its portfolio in overseas securities, primarily in dollar assets. If the sell-off of dollar assets triggers capital inflows back to Japan, it may affect the discussions on "financial terms" in trade negotiations [5].

美股进入高位震荡阶段，散户创记录入场抄底拉盘，后续行情能否追高？鲍威尔悄然放鸽转向，降息之 前美股是否还有一跌？特朗普财政刺激或将起反作用。美股短期布局警惕一大风险因素>> 相关链接 ...

泰国内阁批准1570亿泰铢预算以提振经济。 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is expected to have significant impacts on the market [1][2] - There is a high expectation for continued monetary easing, but the timing of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor due to internal and external interest rate differentials [2][3] - Recent social financing data indicates a positive signal, with government departments initiating credit expansion, although both residents and enterprises remain cautious [3] Group 2 - The market has experienced significant volatility, leading to challenges in timing investments correctly, with many investors feeling they are "only earning the index but not making money" despite a nearly 10% index increase since April 7 [3][4] - Investors often misjudge market movements, leading to poor decision-making, such as selling at lows or buying at highs, which can result in missed opportunities [4][6] - Understanding the true intentions of institutional funds is crucial for improving trading success rates, as many investors rely solely on price movements [6][7] Group 3 - Advanced data analytics can help identify different trading behaviors, allowing investors to better align their strategies with market movements [7][9] - The analysis of trading behaviors reveals that price movements may not always reflect the underlying intentions of institutional investors, highlighting the importance of data-driven insights [9][11] - There are multiple trading behaviors beyond simple price increases or decreases, which can provide deeper insights into market dynamics [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, have officially taken effect, but their impact on the market may not be fully recognized [1] - There is a significant expectation for continued monetary easing, but further interest rate cuts will depend on the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding interest rate differentials [2][4] - Recent economic data from the U.S. has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to the third or even fourth quarter [3] Group 2 - The credit expansion in the government sector is noted, with recent social financing data indicating that government financing is the primary area of expansion [4][5] - The market has experienced frequent shifts in focus, leading to a situation where many investors feel they have not profited despite the index rising nearly 10% since April 7 [7] - The volatility in the market is attributed to investors making decisions based on price movements rather than understanding the underlying intentions of institutional funds [11] Group 3 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of tracking institutional trading behaviors through big data, which can reveal different trading actions beyond just price movements [12][14] - The data indicates that there are multiple trading behaviors, and understanding these can help investors align their strategies with market trends [16]

在贸易企稳背景下，美国经济活动或呈现通胀先抬升，经济活动后走弱，这或使美联储2025年维持观 望。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在5月16日的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和， 但美国通 胀预计将从5月开始明显上升，全年通胀率可能升至3.0-3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不 变。 美国财政谈判进展表明财政立场将基本保持不变，缺乏大规模刺激措施。 对投资者而言， 这意味着美国经济将进入低增长、高通胀的组合，资产定价需要适应"没有降息"的新现 实。 美联储2025年将按兵不动 商务部官方消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。本次中美经贸高层会 谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的 反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 大摩分析师表示， 尽管贸易冲突降级大大减少了贸易流量硬停止的风险，进而降低了经济近期衰退的 可能性。然而，13%的有效关税率仍然远高于年初的约2%，政策不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's economic recovery faces unexpected disruptions, with GDP growth forecasted to slow down to 1.8% in 2025, down from previous expectations of 2.5% for 2024, due to multiple adverse factors impacting the economic outlook [2][9]. Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, up from 2.0% in 2023, driven by a 5.4% increase in goods exports, a 26.3% rise in international tourist arrivals, and a 4.4% growth in private consumption [8][9]. - The IMF has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.8%, highlighting the challenges posed by external factors such as U.S. tariffs and domestic political instability [9][10]. Policy Regulation - The Thai government has introduced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 500 billion THB (approximately 15 billion USD) to counteract slowing growth, focusing on consumption stimulation and investment [3][21]. - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy interest rate from 2.25% to 1.75% to enhance market liquidity, with additional measures including debt relief programs and digital wallet initiatives aimed at supporting indebted households [3][21]. Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies present uncertainties for Thailand's exports, with a trade surplus of 35.4 billion USD expected in 2024, and a corresponding tariff rate of 36% [4][30]. - In Q1 2025, Thailand's exports grew by 15.2%, supported by strong demand from the U.S. and China, but ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. remain stalled, posing risks to future trade performance [4][31]. Tourism Industry - The tourism sector is under scrutiny due to security incidents and the impact of the March earthquake, with international tourist arrivals increasing by only 1.9% in Q1 2025 [5][37]. - High-spending tourists from Western countries are partially offsetting the decline in Chinese visitors, but the overall recovery in tourism is expected to be slower than anticipated [5][38]. Capital Markets - The Thai stock market (SET Index) has fallen by 14.5% year-to-date, reaching a five-year low, driven by global market volatility and domestic economic challenges [6][46]. - Recommendations for investment strategies include diversifying into high-dividend blue-chip stocks, tourism-related sectors, and utilities, as well as taking advantage of potential stock buyback programs [6][47].