Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. is predicted to enter a phase of simultaneous interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, with a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1][2] - Historical precedents suggest that U.S. presidents often achieve their desired monetary policies, indicating that the current administration may push for lower interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve's role may be diminished as stablecoins act as "price-insensitive buyers" of U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially altering the dynamics of monetary policy [1][14] Group 2: Bitcoin and Stablecoins - Bitcoin is viewed as a core asset for hedging against fiat currency devaluation, with its performance expected to be strong in the context of increasing money supply [2][17] - The potential influx of approximately $10 trillion into stablecoins could significantly impact the DeFi ecosystem, providing liquidity and driving demand for decentralized finance protocols [12][19] - Stablecoins are anticipated to facilitate a shift in how monetary policy is executed, with their underlying assets possibly mandated to be held in banks or T-bills, thus influencing short-term interest rates [14][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The growth of stablecoins and DeFi protocols is expected to create substantial investment opportunities, particularly in projects like Hyperliquid, which could become a leading trading platform [19][20] - The potential for a $34 trillion total addressable market for stablecoins indicates a significant shift in capital flows, with implications for traditional banking and investment strategies [11][12] - The current economic environment may lead to increased speculation in cryptocurrencies, as individuals seek alternative investment avenues amid fiat currency depreciation [21][26]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, reducing rates by 25 basis points, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by stagnant income growth, insufficient consumer confidence, and a sluggish real estate market, which are core factors constraining recovery [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate a new round of rate cuts starting in September, potentially lowering rates three times by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [4] Group 2 - The adjustment in interest rates is expected to significantly narrow the interest rate differential with other major economies, alleviating currency depreciation pressure and providing more operational space for monetary policy in other economies [4] - The real estate market is a key area for observing the effects of policy changes, with mortgage rate adjustments being a critical variable influencing market dynamics [6] - While lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs, the level of housing prices is seen as the core determinant of demand release, with current weak income expectations leading to persistent market hesitation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not provided explicit guidance on future interest rate cuts but has released positive signals regarding economic fundamentals, inflation expectations, and financial markets, indirectly raising expectations that the "rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end" [1][4] Economic Activity Outlook - In September, the ECB noted continued growth in manufacturing and services, emphasizing that previous rate cuts and government fiscal policies have created positive momentum for the economy [2] - The ECB believes that rate cuts will further stimulate consumption and investment, with government spending on infrastructure and defense expected to support investment in the Eurozone [2] External Economic Environment - The ECB has shifted its stance on external risks, indicating that while trade tensions and a strong euro may suppress growth in the short term, these negative impacts are expected to dissipate by 2026 [2][3] - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU is anticipated to reduce uncertainty, leading the ECB to view the risks to Eurozone economic growth as more balanced [2] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the factors driving inflation are dissipating, leading to a more stable inflation outlook, with current inflation around 2%, close to the medium-term target [3][4] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate an upward revision for 2025 and 2026 inflation rates, with projections of 2.1% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was slightly lowered to 1.9% [3] Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB maintains that despite inflation being below target, there is no need to alter monetary policy due to "minor deviations" [4] - The ECB has signaled a commitment to maintaining current interest rates and will continue to adopt a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine appropriate monetary policy [4] Market Stability - The ECB has reassured markets regarding the stability of the Eurozone sovereign bond market, indicating that it has the necessary tools to address risks if market conditions deteriorate [4][5] - Despite a reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts, some institutions still believe that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance if certain factors arise [4][6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include financial market volatility and unexpected changes in external monetary policies, particularly if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance [5][6] - The ECB is currently more optimistic about external conditions and internal momentum, which supports its decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance [5][6]

新华财经北京9月20日电在英国央行于周四宣布维持关键利率不变后，包括摩根大通、高盛、摩根士丹 利和美国银行在内的多家主要金融机构纷纷调整预测，认为英国央行在2025年内将不再进一步降息。 此次利率决定紧随8月英国央行实施25个基点降息之后，符合市场普遍预期。央行决策层选择暂停降 息，主要考量因素为通胀压力持续存在，以及经济增长和就业前景仍存不确定性。 高盛与摩根士丹利目前预计，英国央行的下一轮宽松周期将始于2026年2月，并在此后以每季度降息一 次的节奏推进。但两家机构同时指出，若未来经济数据出现明显恶化，12月仍存在降息的可能性。 摩根大通亦将其对首次降息时间的预测从2025年11月推迟至2026年2月和4月。该行强调，若经济数据动 能显著减弱，12月降息仍为一种潜在情景。 花旗分析师在一份报告中指出："货币政策委员会（MPC）采取的是反应式策略，这为短期政策调整留 下了较大空间。"这表明未来政策走向将高度依赖即将公布的数据表现。 相比之下，巴克莱仍维持其基线预测，认为英国央行可能在11月启动降息。该行指出，鉴于央行对经济 数据的高度依赖性，若即将发布的数据显现疲软迹象，或将为宽松政策提供支持。 （文章来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hint of a slowdown in future interest rate cuts, leading to market divergence and profit - taking. However, there are still medium - to long - term supporting factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the de - dollarization trend, so the bottom support of the gold price is stable after the correction [3]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern of tin in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [18][97]. - The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [36][37][38]. - The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [66]. - For the nickel industry chain, there are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - For lithium carbonate, the "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - For the silicon industry chain, the short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the rebound of the US dollar index, but the bottom support is stable due to factors such as central bank gold purchases. The trading data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures are presented in multiple charts [3]. - **Long - term Factors**: Global central bank gold purchases continue, for example, China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, and Switzerland's gold exports to China have soared by 254%. Geopolitical risks and the de - dollarization trend remain unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment [18]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper futures and spot are provided, including domestic and foreign markets. The import profit and loss, processing fees, and inventory data are also presented [19][22][28][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price**: The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend [36]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The core contradiction of bauxite lies in the tight domestic ore, low Guinea bauxite shipments, and high inventory [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum [38]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [39][45][53][62]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline [66]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [67][73][78]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Industry Situation**: There are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The Fed's interest rate cut cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [97]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [98][102][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Support**: The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Outlook**: The short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, as well as production, inventory, and cost data [118][125][133][142].

【文/羽扇观金工作室 李琪】 9月19日，A股银行板块呈现先跌后涨的走势，盘中上演"V形反弹"。银行指数一度下挫近1%，随后震 荡回升，截至午盘收涨0.28%。其中，工商银行盘中一度跌超2%，为近一年内首次跌破半年线。 此外，美元进入降息周期，可能推高通胀预期，间接影响国债和高分红资产的吸引力。 当地时间9月18日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，时隔9个月后重启降息。市场普遍预期，国内货币政策亦 存在进一步降息、降准空间，这可能对银行未来净息差形成压力。 对此，有分析人士认为这是一件好事，随着M1增速等关键指标回升，市场风险偏好明显提升，部分此 前配置在国债和红利资产的资金开始向权益类资产迁移，形成"存款搬家"的逻辑，有助于释放股市结构 性机会。但这将意味着高股息的一线银行正失去吸引力，而二线银行通过财富管理，更能捕获资金。 东方财富网 银行板块的疲软走势非一日之寒。A股银行板块自7月11日以来持续下跌，当前板块指数呈现空头排 列。截至9月19日上午，银行板块指数跌幅已超过14%，而同期科创50、创业板50、沪深300、A500等 指数均有显著上涨。 红利板块同样下挫，自7月高点以来累计跌幅已超过7%，此前已跌破 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25% amid concerns over deteriorating employment conditions[5] - The updated economic projections indicate a slight increase in GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous forecasts[10] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the median projections for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%[10] Employment Risks - August's non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, indicating a significant slowdown in employment growth[22] - The current employment situation shows characteristics of "no job growth," which is rare and suggests a potential economic downturn[30] - The deterioration in the job market is expected to suppress economic growth and weaken resilience, with consumer spending likely to decline as income growth slows[28] Monetary Policy Implications - The current interest rate environment is characterized as a dovish scenario, with expectations for continued rate cuts in the near future[55] - The market anticipates a 4%-6% depreciation of the US dollar index (DXY), targeting a range of 91-93 during this easing cycle[59] - The potential for a rebound in employment post-rate cuts is uncertain, with risks of further job market deterioration[46] Asset Market Trends - In the context of ongoing monetary easing, asset prices are expected to trend positively, with gold likely to see moderate gains amid various macroeconomic scenarios[72] - The stock market is supported by high-risk appetite, as lower bond yields tend to boost equity prices[67] - The long-term interest rates are expected to remain under pressure, with a steeper yield curve anticipated as the Fed continues its easing policy[51]

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, and the market is now focused on the future interest - rate path and economic data, especially the labor market [1][2][4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][2][4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to oscillate around the current level, and the policy guidance signal of the RMB central parity rate needs to be closely watched [2] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures declined due to the fulfillment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged due to the interest - rate cut cycles in both China and the US [4] - The small - and medium - cap stock index futures are relatively stronger in the short term, with limited downside space [4] Group 3: Treasury Bonds - The Treasury bond futures closed down, and the yield of most spot bonds rose. The market is waiting for the central bank's attitude [5] - The new 2Y and 7Y bonds issued last week have been included in the deliverable bonds, but have not significantly affected the futures price [5] Group 4: Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures prices oscillated slightly downward. The near - month contracts have fallen to a relatively appropriate level, but may continue to decline [6][7] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and wait and see, and look for low - buying opportunities in the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [7] Group 5: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation stage after the Fed's interest - rate cut. The market focus is on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and tariff policies [8] - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [9] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price declined due to the Fed's interest - rate decision. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a production reduction due to a mudslide [11] - The trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [11] Zinc - The zinc price was weak. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see for the internal - external reverse arbitrage or sell out - of - the - money call options [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by the market and were weak. The fundamentals have no obvious changes [14][15] Tin - The tin price declined slightly. The supply is tight in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [15][16] Lead - The lead price was in a high - level oscillation. The supply is relatively weak compared to the demand, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillation in the short term [16][17] Group 7: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were weak. The overall steel market is still in the process of inventory reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate after digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut [18] Iron Ore - The iron ore price oscillated around 800. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate based on fundamentals [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented. It is not recommended to short coking coal, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities at low basis [21] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices were affected by the news of the increase in the standard of submerged arc furnaces in the metallurgical industry. The short - term price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to try long positions [22] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price fell slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term, and the probability of a short - term correction has increased [24][25] LPG - The LPG price declined. The supply is controllable, and the demand is lack of clear drivers, so it is expected to oscillate [25][26] PTA - PX - The PX - PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The polyester demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the PTA processing fee repair is limited [27][28][29] Methanol - The methanol price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [29][30] PP - The PP price is supported by the cost side, but the demand is in the "peak season without peak" situation. The downward space is limited, and a rebound may occur if the device shutdown increases [31][32] PE - The PE price is in a weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upward drivers and limited downward space, and is expected to oscillate [34][35] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices are weak, with high inventory and low valuation. They are expected to oscillate and follow the cost side [36][37] Fuel Oil - It is recommended to short the cracking profit of fuel oil. The export volume is decreasing, and the demand is stable [37][38] Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by the increase in supply and the inability to release demand. The inventory structure is improving. It may have a last chance to rise this year [39] Rubber and 20 - Rubber - The rubber prices fell. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is stable in the short term. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [40][41][42] Group 9: Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The soda ash price is under pressure due to the high - level supply expectation. The demand is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [43] Glass - The glass price lacks a clear trend. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand in the near term, and factors such as supply ignition and coal price need to be followed [44][45] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak in the spot market. The downstream demand is stable, and the supply fluctuates due to maintenance [46] Group 10: Pulp - The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The macro - level interest - rate cut has a positive impact, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers [46][47] Group 11: Propylene - The propylene price declined. The supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price followed the decline of PP [49][50] Group 12: Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The live pig price declined. The supply is still high in September, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51] Oilseeds - The soybean market is affected by Sino - US negotiations. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the downstream demand is stable [51][53] Vegetable Oils - The vegetable oil prices declined due to the uncertainty of the US bio - fuel policy. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54] Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 futures price rebounded slightly. The new - season soybean price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [54] Corn and Starch - The corn and starch prices are expected to be weak as new grains are gradually coming onto the market [53][56]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year and the beginning of a new easing cycle amid concerns over a slowing job market [1][2] - The Fed's shift in focus from inflation control to employment support is evident, as it acknowledged a slowdown in job growth and removed previous language indicating a robust labor market [1][2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" in response to a complex economic environment, balancing the need for easing against persistent inflation [2][3] Economic Implications - The decision to cut rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 reflects a cautious approach, aiming to transition to a neutral rate level that supports employment without exacerbating inflation [3] - The median expectation among Fed officials suggests a further 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a preference for gradual adjustments [3] - The rate cut is expected to weaken the relative returns on dollar assets, potentially driving international capital towards emerging markets, which could alleviate local financing pressures in the short term [3][4] Challenges and Risks - The initiation of a rate cut cycle while core inflation remains at 3.1% raises concerns about the long-term value of the dollar and the implications for the global reserve currency status [4] - The easing environment may temporarily relieve debt servicing pressures for high-debt economies, but structural issues remain unresolved, posing risks if financing conditions tighten unexpectedly [4] - The Fed's balancing act between controlling inflation, supporting employment, and managing political pressures is more complex than in previous easing cycles, with a structurally higher neutral rate limiting the scope for monetary easing [5] Global Impact - For China, the Fed's rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges, as it may attract capital inflows while also increasing market volatility [5] - The interconnectedness of global economies necessitates close monitoring of U.S. monetary policy effects, emphasizing the need for policy coordination to mitigate potential risks [5]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储终于"动手"：宣布降息25个基点至4.00%—4.25%。这是美联储2025年以 来首次降息，也是时隔9个月后再度启动宽松周期。 看似"按剧本来"，但市场并不平静。降息消息一出，美股三大指数一度跳涨，科技股、周期股领涨，苹 果、英伟达等巨头股价应声上扬。但随后市场开始冷静：降息是"药"，但美国经济基本面 "病灶"还 在，指数出现回调。 作为全球资产定价的"锚"，美联储政策转向对股、债、汇、商品等大类资产影响深远。接下来，投资者 要面对的问题是：宽松浪潮重启之下，各国降息已在进程当中，未来货币政策将有什么变化？大类资产 如何走向？在降息周期中，大众投资者如何调整"篮子里的鸡蛋"？ "25个基点"的博弈 背后远不止经济理由 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，本次降息可被视为"风险管理式"的调整，意在为经济增长可能 出现的下行风险预留缓冲空间。 从措辞来看，美联储在政策声明中首次加入"就业下行的风险正在上升""失业率已开始增长"等表述，暗 示其对当前经济前景的担忧加重。种种迹象显示，美联储此举意在为潜在风险"预备药方"。 但这一次的"药方"，并不全是经济考量的结果。 9月17日，美国 ...