财经网站Forexlive评非农：市场认为非农数据强劲对美元来说是个好消息，我可以支持这一点。 ...

金十数据5月2日讯，由于美元和美国国债收益率下滑，黄金期货在相对清淡的交易中上涨。但在周四的 大幅抛售后，本周整体下跌。SP Angel的分析师在一份报告中说，ETF资金外流表明，在今年迄今金价 上涨21%之后，交易员和投资者已经获利了结。SP Angel表示，贸易紧张关系降温正在降低黄金的吸引 力，同时特朗普宣布他不打算解雇鲍威尔。现在的焦点转向将于周五的美国就业数据。如果数据弱于预 期，就会提振人们对美联储降息的乐观情绪，这对无息黄金是一个利好。 美元疲软导致金价上涨，非农弱于预期将利好黄金 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 18,000 to 241,000, the highest level since February, significantly above the market expectation of 223,000 [1] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits rose to 1.92 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating a prolonged reemployment cycle for the unemployed [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims increased to 226,000, which helps smooth out weekly fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment report indicated that U.S. hiring slowed to the lowest level in nine months, with some service sectors experiencing layoffs [2] - Despite expectations that the unemployment rate will remain low at 4.2%, the unusual fluctuations in initial claims have cast a shadow over the job market [2] Group 3 - Following the release of the jobless claims data, the U.S. dollar index fell by 17 points, currently reported at 99.74 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with key levels identified at 3300 for potential long positions and 3259-3386 as the expected range before the non-farm payroll data release [1][2] - The strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips, particularly around 3305, with targets set at 3315-3325, while also considering short positions if the price fails to break above 3330 [2][4] - Resistance levels are noted at 3315, 3325, and further up at 3340, with support identified at 3270-3260 [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have broken below the $60 mark, indicating a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines due to lack of buying momentum [4][6] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at 60.3, 61.1, and 62.7, while support is seen at 59, with further levels at 58 and 56.8 [4][6] - The recommended strategy is to focus on short positions during rebounds, with potential long positions only considered at lower levels [4][6]

相关链接 非农数据倒计时！黄金窄幅震荡是"蓄力"还是"熄火"？投行预计今年黄金的平均价格将达到....点击阅 读。 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on U.S. stock markets and gold prices, highlighting a nearly 7% pullback in gold prices and shifts in "smart money" positions [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline of nearly 7%, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The positioning of "smart money" suggests a strategic shift that may reveal underlying market dynamics [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators point to short-term pullback risks, suggesting that traders should be cautious ahead of key economic data releases [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of adjusting positions in anticipation of market volatility driven by upcoming data [1] Group 3: Policy and Fund Flow Signals - The article highlights the need to analyze policy shifts and fund flow signals as they may influence market trends and investment strategies [1] - It suggests that understanding these signals is crucial for making informed decisions in the current market environment [1]

一、非农前言——总数据分析 美国5月份发布的非农数据将于北京时间5月2日20:30公布，市场焦点集中于劳动力市场是否延续放缓趋势。3月非农新增就业22.8万人，远超预期的13.5万， 失业率微升至4.2%，但薪资增速放缓至环比0.3%。这一数据表明劳动力市场仍具韧性，但薪资压力缓解可能为美联储政策转向提供空间。 当前市场对4月非农的预期存在分歧：一方面，关税政策引发的供应链扰动可能抑制就业增长；另一方面，服务业需求韧性或支撑就业市场。需重点关注失 业率、薪资增长及行业就业分布变化，尤其是制造业和建筑业的表现。 二、小非农ADP及大非农预测 1.小非农ADP 前值：3月ADP新增就业15.5万人（预期11.8万），显示私营部门就业回暖。 前值：3月非农新增22.8万人，失业率4.2%，薪资环比0.3%。 预测：4月非农预计新增12.9万人，失业率升至3.8%，薪资环比增长0.3%。制造业就业或因关税冲击减少，服务业就业仍为主要支撑。 上月影响：3月非农公布后，金价短暂承压至3260美元/盎司，但因薪资增速放缓，市场对降息预期升温，金价快速反弹至3318美元/盎司。 4月非农就业人口变动数据将于2025年5月02 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on market dynamics, suggesting that the battle between bulls and bears may intensify [1] - It highlights the importance of real-time analysis of order flow signals in understanding market movements during this critical period [1] - The content encourages viewers to subscribe for insights on futures and commodity trends, indicating a focus on market analysis and trading strategies [1]

Market Environment - The market environment is complex with significant volatility, making accurate predictions difficult, leading to a recommendation for reduced trading and increased observation [2] - The extreme market conditions from last week are expected to stabilize, returning to a more technical trading environment [2] Economic Indicators - This week is significant due to the non-farm payroll data, trade tariffs, geopolitical changes, and Federal Reserve policies, alongside unemployment claims data [2] Gold Market Analysis - The dollar has shown a slight rebound after forming a bottom, which is expected to support an increase in gold prices [3] - Despite a drop from 3500 to 3260, the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, with potential targets of 3420, 3500, and possibly breaking above 3500 [3] - Current gold trading is characterized by low-level fluctuations, with key resistance at 3370; a break above this level could lead to significant upward movement [4] Silver Market Analysis - The international silver market has shown a strong trend, with expectations of reaching around 34, while maintaining support at 32 [4] - Domestic silver is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the 8400/8150 range for potential trading opportunities [5] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market is currently in a weak range, with a trading range of 64.5 to 61.5; breaking this range could lead to a more definitive trend [5] - Fuel oil has also been in a consolidation phase, with potential for upward movement if it can establish a solid base [5]

周三现货黄金延续了回调态势。市场情绪受多重因素共同作用，特别是美国总统特朗普近期针对关税及美联储政策所发表的温和言论，促使避险资产黄金面 临获利回吐压力。与此同时全球股市与债券市场因风险偏好增强而呈现上涨态势，黄金作为传统避险资产，承受了较大压力。展望未来，黄金市场将在基本 面与技术面的双重影响下，维持较高的波动性。短期内特朗普温和表态所引发的避险情绪降温，可能持续对金价构成下行压力；然而从长期视角来看，避险 需求与基本面支撑依然坚实。翁富豪认为需密切关注美国政策动态、美元走势以及关键技术位的表现，以便精准把握市场节奏。 美国财长贝森特暗示国际贸易紧张局势有望缓和，此消息激发了股市的乐观情绪，并推动美元反弹至近一周高点。此外美国总统特朗普表示无意解雇美联储 主席鲍威尔，受此影响美元短线大幅上涨，现货黄金则出现急剧下跌。在经历短线大幅上涨后，多头存在获利了结与回调的需求。市场避险情绪有所缓解， 美元指数超跌后反弹，同时黄金日线图技术指标在连续超买后存在修正需求。在多重因素的共同作用下，金价短期内将维持宽幅震荡格局，等待技术指标的 修正。翁老师提醒大家需继续关注美元指数的走势选择。经过此轮避险情绪推动的快速上涨后 ...