6月6日亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，交投于3360美元/盎司附近。昨日金价一度突破3400美元关口，创四周新高至3403.28美元，但随后因中美领导人通话 释放贸易缓和信号，收盘下跌0.6%至3352.63美元。当前市场聚焦晚间美国非农就业数据，预计5月新增就业13万人，失业率维持4.2%。 | 昨收 | 3352.63 | 最高 | 3368.58 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3354.20 | | 3353.07 | | 买入 | 3362.26 | 卖出 | 3362.46 | 一、基本面解析：多空因素交织 贸易局势缓和压制避险需求 中美领导人通话释放积极信号，特朗普称双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，市场对关税冲突升级的担忧降温，黄金避险买盘减少。但分析师警告， 关税谈判的不确定性仍存，若后续谈判未达预期，避险需求可能迅速回升。 美国经济数据疲软支撑金价 上周初请失业金人数增至24.7万人，连续两周上升，显示劳动力市场放缓。同时，美国4月PCE物价指数同比2.1%低于预期，市场押注美联储9月降息概率升 至87%。非农数据若低于预期，可能进一步强化降息预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent fluctuations, gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, with predictions of reaching $3,500 per ounce in the short term [3][4]. Market Performance - On May 27, gold opened at $3,342.46 per ounce, peaked at $3,350.03, and dipped to a low of $3,324.34, closing at $3,325.49, reflecting a decrease of 0.50% [1]. - Gold ETFs experienced a slight decline of 0.31% during the trading session, with a turnover rate of 1.54% and a transaction amount of 4.41 billion [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. have led to a delay in tariff implementations, which may affect the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Recent comments from President Trump regarding Russia and Ukraine have heightened geopolitical tensions, further increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Economic Indicators - Gold prices have risen over 25% this year, although they remain approximately $165 below last month's historical peak [4]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit and ongoing trade negotiations are key factors influencing market sentiment and gold demand [3][4]. Investment Strategy - The gold ETF (159937) offers a low-cost, low-barrier investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading [5]. - Long-term investment in gold is recommended due to its ability to hedge against economic downturns and its stable performance across different economic cycles [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods, highlighting the potential economic impacts on both the EU and the US, as well as the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Trump's Tariff Threat - The tariff threat serves as a negotiation pressure tactic aimed at accelerating trade talks with the EU, particularly regarding issues like digital service taxes and regulatory coordination [3]. - The US faces a significant trade deficit with the EU, amounting to $235.6 billion in 2024, with nearly 40% attributed to the automotive sector, prompting Trump to accuse the EU of unfair trade practices [3]. - Domestic political considerations are also at play, as the upcoming 2025 elections require Trump to fulfill promises related to revitalizing American manufacturing, which could resonate with voters in industrial states [3]. - The US aims to leverage tariffs to influence EU policies towards China, seeking to align EU actions with US interests in limiting Chinese supply chains [4]. Group 2: Potential Consequences of High Tariffs - The EU economy would be significantly impacted, particularly German car manufacturers like Porsche and Audi, which could face substantial losses and potential layoffs due to reduced exports to the US [7]. - The US could experience inflationary pressures as consumers bear the cost of increased prices for goods such as automobiles and alcohol, leading to higher household expenditures [7]. - A global economic ripple effect may occur, with financial markets experiencing volatility and companies shifting production to regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia, ultimately passing increased costs onto consumers [7]. - The EU may respond with concessions, such as increasing imports of US agricultural products, but is unlikely to accept unilateral US demands, potentially leading to a "lose-lose" scenario for both economies [8]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions could accelerate the trend of regionalizing global supply chains, resulting in higher compliance costs for multinational companies [8]. - The situation is characterized as a high-stakes negotiation, with the outcome dependent on the EU's ability to withstand US pressure and maintain its trade principles [8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce due to factors such as increased central bank gold purchases and a potential crisis of confidence in the US dollar [8][9].

Group 1 - International gold prices surged significantly, closing at $3289.29 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar, despite cautious market sentiment regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and U.S. tariff policies [1] - On May 21, spot gold broke the $3300 mark for the first time since May 9, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The latest data from CME shows a 94.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy [3] Group 2 - UBS maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with a potential high of $3800 per ounce in a risk-off scenario [3][4] - The main drivers of gold prices are the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued rate cuts by the Fed supporting a bullish outlook for gold [4] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to rise in the coming months due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, which could further elevate gold prices [3]

黄金大涨。 5月20日晚间，黄金期现盘中均直线拉升。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨1.54%，报3278.915美元/盎司，COMEX黄金涨1.52%，报3282.5美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 3278.915 | | 昨结 | 3229.130 | 总量 | 0 | | | +49.785 | | +1.54% 十益 | 3230.148 | 现手 | 0 | | | 最高价 | 3285.830 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | 0 | | | 最低价 | 3204.205 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | 0 | | | 分时 | モ日 | | 周Ｋ | 月K | (0) | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 3285.830 | | | | 1.76% 卖一 3279.465 | | | | | | | | 头一 3278.915 | | | | | | | | 23:01 3278.500 2 ...

黄金大涨。 5月20日晚间，黄金期现盘中均直线拉升。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨1.54%，报3278.915美元/盎司，COMEX黄金涨1.52%，报3282.5美元/盎司。 | W | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | | 3282.5 | | 昨结 | 3233.5 | 总手 | 17.42万 | | | +49.0 | +1.52% 开盘 | | 3233.0 | 现手 | | 18 | | 最高价 | 3288.9 | 持 仓 | 18.10万 | 外 雷 | 8.34万 | | | 最低价 | 3207.4 | 增 仓 | -4742 | 内 盘 | 9.08万 | | | 分时 | 五日 周K | 日K | | | 更名 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:3241.2 | | | | 3288.9 | | | | 1.71%. 卖一 | 3282.5 | 2 | | | | | | द्रो- | 3282.3 | 2 | | | | | | | 10 ...

在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade negotiations and a general easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On May 16, spot gold prices fell dramatically, dropping $20 to below $3160 per ounce, with a daily decline of 2.56% [1] - New York futures gold also experienced a 2% drop, settling at $3162.00 per ounce, while London gold and COMEX gold reported similar declines [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The easing of market tensions due to positive developments in US-China trade talks has led to a significant outflow of funds from the gold market into riskier assets [3]. - Geopolitical stability is indicated by the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, further enhancing market risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal [3]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's repeated failures to break the $3200 per ounce psychological barrier led to increased selling pressure once this support level was breached [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [3]. - A report from Citigroup on May 12 revised the three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing the easing of tariff concerns as a core reason for the price adjustment [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors who previously bought gold at high prices are now facing significant losses, with one example showing a drop from a purchase price of 830 yuan per gram to around 758 yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 72 yuan per gram [3]. - Some investors have successfully locked in profits by selling at high prices, while others are waiting for further declines to enter the market [3].

通胀风险仍存，黄金避险需求未消！现货黄金昨日反弹逾百美元，今日再次回落，近期的调整或给多头 带来中长期入场机会？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...