Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 3, with the Hang Seng Index falling to 25,980.89 points, down 114.16 points, a decline of 0.44% [1][9] - The Hang Seng Technology Index reported a decrease to 5,595.53 points, down 28.51 points, a decline of 0.51% [3][13] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed on the same day: - LeMo Technology (HK02539) opened over 60% higher, later increasing to a peak of 72.3 HKD, representing a 70% rise. The company operates shared massage equipment in high-traffic public areas across China [5][11] - Jinyan Kaolin New Materials (HK02693) opened 27.4% higher, reaching a maximum of 9.8 HKD. The company specializes in the mining, processing, and sales of coal series kaolin, being a large-scale and standardized producer in China [5][11] Sector Performance - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index, NetEase fell over 2%, while Alibaba and Bilibili dropped over 1%. Automotive stocks continued to decline, with NIO and XPeng down over 3%, BYD down over 1%, and Li Auto showing a slight rebound [5][11] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the market style is expected to be balanced from December to January, with large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles likely to dominate. Consumer sectors such as home appliances, food and beverage, textiles, and social services are anticipated to perform well during this period due to expectations of increased growth policies ahead of the new year [12] - Guosen Securities highlighted the impact of the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the necessity of addressing rising unemployment rates, suggesting that a rate cut in December is essential. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken in early 2026, which would benefit the valuation recovery of emerging markets [6][12]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.10%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.33% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 0.62%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC40 up by 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.65% [1] - WTI crude oil is down by 0.19% at $59.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down by 0.30% at $62.98 per barrel [1] Economic Insights - Strong online sales on Cyber Monday reached $17.3 billion, indicating consumer resilience despite economic concerns [2] - The overall retail spending increase is driven more by rising prices than by an increase in sales volume, highlighting a K-shaped economic recovery where wealthier consumers and lower-income groups behave differently [2] Company News - MongoDB reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $628 million, significantly exceeding market expectations, with its core product, Atlas, growing by 30% [4] - Apple faces increased risks of collective lawsuits in the EU following a ruling by the European Court of Justice, which allows users to file claims in the Netherlands [5] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced new partnerships during its annual re:Invent conference, focusing on cloud security and sustainability [5] - Michael Burry criticized Tesla for being "absurdly overvalued," citing concerns over stock dilution due to executive compensation [6] - Marvell Technology is in talks to acquire Celestial AI for over $5 billion, aiming to address memory bottlenecks in AI computing [6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.10%, S&P 500 futures by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.33% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.62%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.24%, France's CAC40 up 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.65% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 0.19% at $59.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.30% at $62.98 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Tom Lee from Fundstrat predicts a strong performance for US stocks in December, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7300 points, indicating a 10% increase from current levels. He cites the end of quantitative tightening (QT) as a key driver for this potential rise [4] - The recent holiday shopping data shows that online spending on Cyber Monday reached $17.3 billion, indicating consumer resilience despite underlying economic concerns. However, the growth in retail sales is largely attributed to rising prices rather than increased sales volume, highlighting a K-shaped economic recovery [5] Company News - MongoDB reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $628 million for Q3, surpassing market expectations. The company's core cloud product, Atlas, saw a 30% revenue growth, driving overall performance. MongoDB raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.434 billion and $2.439 billion, significantly above market expectations [8] - Apple faces increased litigation risks in the EU after the European Court ruled that users can file collective lawsuits in the Netherlands regarding alleged monopolistic practices [9] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced new partnerships during its annual re:Invent conference, focusing on cloud security, finance, and sustainability [9] - Michael Burry has criticized Tesla for being "absurdly overvalued," pointing out that the company dilutes its shares by 3.6% annually through stock issuance and does not engage in buybacks. He also highlighted concerns over Elon Musk's compensation plan [10] - Marvell Technology is in talks to acquire Celestial AI for over $5 billion, aiming to address the "memory wall" issue in AI computing through photonic interconnect technology [10] Upcoming Events - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 23:00 Beijing time [11] - President Trump is expected to make a significant announcement at 03:00 the following day [11] - Earnings reports are anticipated from CrowdStrike and Marvell Technology on Wednesday morning, and from Dollar Tree and YUM Brands before the market opens [11]

Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - On Black Friday, online spending reached a record $11.8 billion, a 9.1% increase year-over-year, but the number of items purchased decreased due to rising prices [1] - Retail sales (excluding automobiles) grew by 4.1% year-over-year, with in-store sales increasing by 1.7% and online sales up by 10.4%, although the latter was lower than the previous year's growth [1] - Consumers are prioritizing essential goods and downgrading their purchases, indicating a shift in spending behavior amid inflation and economic uncertainty [1][5] Group 2: Impact of Inflation and Economic Conditions - The average selling price increased by 7%, while the number of items purchased per transaction decreased by 2%, reflecting consumers' tightening budgets [5] - High-income households are driving luxury goods sales, while middle and low-income families face pressure from inflation, weak job markets, and high interest rates [2][5] - The current inflation rate is at 3%, suggesting that the actual growth rate of Black Friday sales may only be around 1% when adjusted for inflation [6] Group 3: Role of Artificial Intelligence in Shopping - AI-driven shopping tools have seen an 805% increase in usage compared to last year, with many consumers relying on these tools for price comparison and discount tracking [3] - Approximately 50% of surveyed consumers and 71% of Gen Z plan to use AI during the shopping season, indicating a significant shift towards technology-assisted shopping [3] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The holiday shopping season indicates that while consumers have spending power, future growth remains uncertain due to inflation and employment challenges [7] - The Federal Reserve faces a dual challenge of managing inflation driven by supply-side factors while addressing signs of a cooling labor market [7][8] - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut in December have risen, with a probability of 87.6% for a rate cut [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting dynamics in the U.S. consumer market during the holiday shopping season, with record online spending but concerns over the quality of growth due to inflation and reduced purchasing volume [1][5][10] - Adobe Analytics reported that online spending on Black Friday reached a record $11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while in-store sales saw a modest growth of 1.7% [1][5] - The average selling price increased by 7%, leading to a decrease in the number of items purchased per transaction, which fell by 2% year-on-year [5][8] Group 2 - High-income consumers are driving luxury and high-end product sales, while middle and low-income households are facing pressures from inflation and a weak job market [5][10] - The use of AI-driven shopping tools surged, with a reported 805% increase in AI-driven visits to retail websites compared to the previous year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [6][10] - The holiday shopping season reflects a K-shaped economic recovery, where spending patterns diverge significantly between high-income and low-income consumers [5][10] Group 3 - The overall consumer spending environment is challenged by high inflation, rising unemployment rates, and elevated interest rates, which are expected to suppress future consumption growth [8][9][10] - Despite the resilience shown in short-term consumer spending, long-term growth potential may weaken due to declining purchasing power and a cooling labor market [10][12] - The Federal Reserve faces a dual challenge of managing inflation while addressing rising unemployment, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [12][13]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月02日 港股 12 月投资策略 优于大市 11 月的回调为 2026 年赢得确定空间 美国：12 月份降息预期飙至近 90%。11 月，当美联储还试图用缺乏数据的 理由来给降息预期降温时，PMI、裁员（挑战者）、消费、褐皮书等多 重数据显示当下美国经济已经面临较大的压力，故而以纽约联储主席为 代表的降息主张迅速占据上风。 2026 年早些时候，预计股票市场可能会较为温和，不会有大幅下跌的风险， 理由是美联储的托底，但实际时薪的下行依然会导致经济表现较弱。美元指 数将进一步走弱，这将利于新兴市场的股票表现。 A 股：反内卷与效率进步是看点。11 月的经济数据受到房地产、服务业的 下行而表现偏弱。对于 PPI 恢复的预期很大程度上源自反内卷，亏损企 业亏损额同比继续降低就是比较积极的信号。 此外，劳动生产率已经在 AI 的驱动下改善，软件行业表现较为显著。 在过去的 5 年中，A 股软件行业人均效率持续提升，从人均收入 75 万元 提升至 87 万元，市场已经在悄然定价这种转变。考虑到大模型正在快 速迭代，AI 对企业效率的提升可能会在 2026 年变得更加广泛和深入。 港股：短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to face volatility in 2025, with significant growth in AI-related investments, but uncertainty from tariffs and policies may suppress growth in the latter half of the year, compounded by the longest government shutdown in history affecting employment and inflation data [2][3] Group 1: Economic Scenarios - The baseline scenario predicts a few months of growth recession followed by recovery, with inflation gradually declining to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, termed the "Goldilocks scenario" [2][3] - The second scenario involves a shallow recession lasting several quarters, with a slower recovery compared to the first scenario [3] - The third scenario, termed "no landing," suggests strong growth without inflation returning to target levels [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Recovery - A strong recovery in mid-2026 could be driven by further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, ongoing fiscal stimulus, robust household and corporate balance sheets, a loose financial environment, and strong capital expenditures related to AI [3][4] - The easing of tariff effects and productivity improvements driven by technology may lead to a decline in inflation after peaking in the following year [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The possibility of a shallow recession with slow recovery is considered lower than the baseline scenario, but trade policies may still push inflation higher, eroding real wages and consumer confidence [4][5] - Concerns about an AI bubble could impact corporate confidence, potentially leading to a significant stock price correction and weak capital expenditures [4] - The "no landing" scenario remains a possibility, as recent indicators suggest the U.S. economy may be more resilient than previously thought, with tight labor and product markets driving wage increases and overall growth [4][5] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - If the U.S. economy recovers in 2026 and China maintains resilience with close to 5% growth, the global outlook could improve, with both developed and emerging markets expected to achieve stronger growth compared to 2025 [5]

虽然总体支出攀升，但富裕阶层与低收入群体的消费行为呈现出"K型经济"，通胀焦虑与价格敏感性成 为主导市场情绪的核心变量。尽管总体支出增加，但销售额的增长很大程度上是由商品价格上涨而非销 售数量增加所推动——购物者每笔交易购买的物品却减少了。赛富时表示，销量下降了1%，每次结账 的单位下降了2%，而平均销售价格同比增长了7%。 赛富时消费者洞察主管Caila Schwartz将价格上涨归因于两个因素："首先绝对是关税的影响，尤其是对 那些销售价格大幅增长的自由裁量类别的影响。另一个事实是，我们看到高收入者比平均收入者强得 多，奢侈品类别的强劲就证明了这一点。" 据赛富时数据显示，消费者在"网络星期一"当天的线上消费额达到173亿美元，为"黑色星期五"周末画 上了句号。截至美东时间周一中午12点，全球线上销售额增长了5.3%。该公司预计，当天结束时，线 上消费额将增长6%，达到527亿美元。与此同时，赛富时称，截至美东时间周一中午12点，美国线上销 售额增长2.6%，达到34亿美元。该公司预计，到当天结束时，销售额将增长4%，达到133亿美元。 零售咨询公司Sensormatic Solutions的分析师指出， ...

Evercore ISI股票、衍生品与量化策略团队高级董事总经理Julian Emanuel发表研报表示，政界对"可负担 性"问题的关注，有望推动经济及股市中表现疲软的板块在2026年回升。 塔吉特(TGT.US)，远期市盈率较五年均值低26%、通用磨坊(GIS.US)-20%、 Lululemon(LULU.US)-54%、荷美尔食品(HRL.US)-26%、LKQ Corp(LKQ.US)-25%、车美仕 (KMX.US)-32%、e.l.f. Beauty (ELF.US)-42%、Bath & Body Works(BBWI.US)-42%、Simply Good Foods(SMPL.US)-53%、JJSF食品(JJSF.US)-36%、温蒂汉堡(WEN.US)-53%、劲量控股-47%。 美联储的政策调整也将为必需消费和可选消费板块提供支撑。在经历历史性的九个月暂停后，美联储已 于9月重启降息周期。Emanuel预测，12月10日美联储大概率将再降息25个基点，2026年还将有进一步 降息动作。 "一旦美联储开启降息周期，必需消费和可选消费板块在6个月及12个月维度上均会成为表现突出的领涨 板块 ...

2026年美国经济最大的风险是"再通胀"，这源自于经济持续走弱后联储超预期的持续降息，和特朗 普"全力拼中选"所推行的更宽松的财政政策；进而引发对AI叙事的进一步怀疑，以及更大的预期波 动。 通胀是明年中选的硬约束，特朗普会在明年11月中选前尽量避免明显的再通胀，但融资条件（金融环 境）又是AI叙事的硬约束。特朗普需要平衡好选票（中期选举）与股票（AI叙事）之间的关系：既要维 持美国K型经济的下层基础，又要避免造成AI泡沫破裂，导致经济滑向深层次的衰退。 2026年的美国经济将在失衡中围绕股票与选票的平衡展开。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 前言： 当下的美国经济正处在全面放缓的过程中：就业——消费链条放缓、失业率的上行趋势正在持 续。即便2026年美国的财政和货币双宽，经济结构的分化仍将延续，AI相关领域的火热与实体经济的 疲软形成"冷热缺口"将继续扩大而非弥合。 过去15个月，美国经济经历了150bp降息后并未得到明显提振，而将"AI叙事进行到底"则需要更加宽 松的货币政策。同时，为了赢得中选，2026年美国将采取更加宽松的财政政策，在《大美丽法案》逐 步落地的基础上，赤字率水平将回到6%，乃至更高水平 ...