智通财经APP获悉，英国工人正面临近三年来最严峻的失业风险，预算案公布后劳动力市场的恶化趋势 很可能引起英国央行的警觉，并加剧该央行进一步降息的压力。据英国破产署的数据，截至去年12月14 日的四周内潜在裁员人数(预示未来裁员趋势的先行指标)飙升至33,392人，创下2023年初以来最高值， 也是疫情后的第二高水平。这一数据尤其令人担忧，因为历史数据显示，每年12月裁员数量通常趋于缓 和。然而，裁员形势在英国财政大臣里夫斯公布秋季预算案后于上月显著恶化。 尽管英国央行代理人网络反馈显示，企业主要通过自然减员而非主动裁员来缩减规模，但当前裁员数据 表明，越来越多企业正采取积极裁员措施。数据显示，英国2025年末收到裁员通知的人数较年内平均水 平高出近50%。 英国央行决策者小组的调查显示，企业预计2026年将进一步缩减用工规模。涵盖2025年第四季度的数据 显示，企业预测就业率将下降0.4%，创2020年以来最差纪录。 劳动力市场动荡加剧的迹象，将强化英国央行决策者在规划后续政策空间时于2026年持续降息的依据。 荷兰国际集团(ING)发达市场经济学家詹姆斯·史密斯指出："若此类数据开始攀升，将为英国央行加速 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, fiscal policy may maintain the general deficit ratio basically stable compared to 2025, and monetary policy has room for two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have a significant impact on interest rates. The bond market in 2026 is expected to remain range - bound with band trading opportunities, especially when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [3][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fiscal, Monetary Policy Coordination and the Bond Market Relationship - Fiscal and monetary policy coordination is crucial for bond market interest rates. An expansionary fiscal policy shifts the IS curve to the right, putting upward pressure on interest rates, while an expansionary monetary policy shifts the LM curve downward, exerting downward pressure on interest rates. When both policies are implemented simultaneously, the net impact on interest rates depends on which policy is more active [11]. 2. Overall Ideas for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2026 - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference called for a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The central bank aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, and keep the social comprehensive financing cost at a low level. The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on improving the efficiency of fiscal funds [16][17][18]. 3. Review of China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2025 - In 2025, China's fiscal policy remained strong, with the ratio of fiscal total expenditure to GDP rising again. Fiscal revenue as a share of GDP declined, including budget - internal revenue and government - funded revenue. As a result, government bond supply grew at a high rate. The monetary policy met market expectations, with a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP policy interest rate cut, supporting the growth of money supply and social financing [20][23][26]. 4. Analysis of the Policy Space for Demand - Side Stimulus in China in 2026 - In 2026, demand - side policies still need to be strengthened as the nominal GDP growth slowed down in the second half of 2025, possibly due to limited demand - side support. Monetary policy still has some room for action. Low - interest rates are consistent with supporting economic growth and social financing. The 10 - year Treasury yield in the range of 1.6 - 1.9% may be the central bank's perceived balance state [30][32][35]. 5. Outlook for China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2026 - Fiscal policy may keep the general deficit ratio stable, with the ratios of fiscal total expenditure and budget - internal revenue to GDP remaining stable. The decline in government - funded revenue as a share of GDP may be limited. Monetary policy is expected to be the focus of incremental policies, with two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. If only one 25BP reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented, the central bank will increase the base money supply [43][46][47]. 6. Challenges Faced by China's Bond Market: Lack of Duration Preference - As bank deposit growth slows down, the bond market faces the challenge of a lack of duration preference. The proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions has decreased, making it more difficult to balance the upward pressure on yields. Therefore, it is important for monetary policy to maintain interest rates in a low - level range [52][54][55]. 7. Main Conclusions - In 2026, fiscal policy may maintain the general deficit ratio stable compared to 2025, and monetary policy has room for two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have a significant impact on interest rates. The bond market in 2026 will still be affected by the lack of duration preference, but the pressure from the expected policy combination will be less than in 2025. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound with band trading opportunities, especially when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [57].

Core Viewpoint - Song Yu has officially joined UBS Securities as an analyst, bringing extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy evaluation, particularly regarding China's economic trends and investment strategies [1][4][6]. Group 1: Company Changes - On January 5, 2026, the securities industry system indicated that Song Yu has officially transitioned to UBS Securities [1][4]. - Previously, Song Yu held significant positions as the Chief Economist for Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities and BlackRock's Chief China Economist [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - As the Chief China Economist at BlackRock, Song Yu expressed a positive outlook on the Chinese economy, highlighting its strong resilience and the potential for the stock market to stabilize and recover [3][6]. - He believes there is currently an opportunity for value investment in Chinese assets, indicating a bottom-overweight situation [3][6]. - Song Yu is also monitoring the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the Chinese economy, predicting that the new chairperson, expected to be appointed in 2026, may influence decision-making [3][6].

米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点 来源：金十数据 美国财政部长贝森特周四强烈表达了政府对降低利率的渴望，称这是未来经济增长的关键。与此同时， 美联储理事米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点以提振就业。 贝森特将在明尼苏达经济俱乐部发表的演讲中，对特朗普的经济议程表示支持，并指出更宽松的货币政 策将为未来的收益铺平道路。 据政府内部获取的演讲摘要，贝森特表示："降息将对每一位明尼苏达人的生活产生切实影响。这是实 现更强劲经济增长的唯一缺失要素。因此，美联储不应拖延。" 美联储在2025年的最后四个月内连续批准了三次降息，共计0.75个百分点，将基准利率降至3.5%-3.75% 的区间。 然而，预计今年的降息步伐将大幅放缓。市场目前定价仅为两次降息，而美联储官员的最新预测则指向 仅有一次。 这一局面的一个变数是美联储今年将迎来一位新主席，贝森特正负责这一遴选过程。现任主席鲍威尔的 任期将于5月结束，财长已将候选人名单缩减至五人。 虽然低利率可能带来通胀重燃的风险，但也可能有助于支撑放缓的劳动力市场。 贝森特表示："2025年，特朗普总统通过历史性地通过'大而美法案'（One Big Beautiful Bill） ...

今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1006元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报1003.84 元/克，跌幅0.11%，最高上探至1006.28元/克，最低触及999.35元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏向震 荡走势。 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1006元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 1003.84元/克，跌幅0.11%，最高上探至1006.28元/克，最低触及999.35元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线 偏向震荡走势。 在最近三次会议累计降息0.75个百分点后，美联储内部对今年降息幅度仍有分歧，部分官员倾向在数据 进一步明确前维持利率不变。米兰自去年9月起休长假担任美联储理事，任期将于本月结束，未来是否 留任尚未确定。外界预计特朗普可能利用该席位提名新主席，而鲍威尔5月任期结束后或另有一席空 缺。 【最新黄金行情解析】 黄金目前在日线走势上继续维持在高位震荡偏强一些的走势中，日线连续留下较长的下影线短周期均线 继续勾头向上发散，K线也继续在短周期均线上运行在日线走势上可能还有延续上行的空间，短期关注 下4500一带的压力带。4小时级别走势上技术形态开始逐步调整完成， ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant reduction in the U.S. trade deficit in October, dropping to $29.4 billion, which is the lowest level since 2009, deviating from market expectations and adding uncertainty to the macroeconomic environment [1][2][3] - The reduction in trade deficit is attributed to a notable decline in imports and stable exports, indicating a shift in trade flows and corporate behavior following the implementation of tariff policies [1][2] - The improvement in trade data is not comprehensive but concentrated in specific categories, such as increased exports of gold and other metals, while a significant decrease in pharmaceutical imports also contributed to lowering the overall deficit [2] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in trade deficit alleviating some concerns about the "backlash effect" of tariffs, uncertainties regarding trade policies remain, particularly with the U.S. Supreme Court set to rule on the government's authority to impose additional tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [2] - Discussions around monetary policy are also sensitive, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that President Trump may finalize the next Federal Reserve Chair selection soon, which could impact market expectations regarding interest rates [2] - Overall, the narrowing trade deficit provides a temporary reference for the effects of tariff policies, but underlying structural changes and policy expectations continue to create uncertainty in the market [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant reduction in the U.S. trade deficit in October, dropping to $29.4 billion, which is the lowest level since 2009, providing new insights into macroeconomic conditions amid ongoing tariff discussions [1][2]. - The trade deficit narrowed by nearly 40% compared to the previous month, driven by a notable decline in imports and relatively stable exports, indicating adjustments in trade flows and corporate behaviors following the implementation of tariff policies [2][3]. - The improvement in trade data is not broad-based but concentrated in specific categories, particularly with a significant increase in gold and other metal exports, while pharmaceutical imports decreased, reflecting short-term adjustments in response to high tariffs [3]. Group 2 - Despite the positive trade data, uncertainties regarding tariff policies remain, as the U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on whether the government can continue imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which could influence future trade policies [4]. - Discussions around monetary policy are also intensifying, with expectations that the next Federal Reserve chair will be announced soon, and current interest rates are perceived to be above neutral levels, indicating potential for policy adjustments [4]. - Overall, while the significant narrowing of the trade deficit provides a temporary validation of tariff effects, the underlying structural changes and policy expectations suggest that market conditions may continue to fluctuate based on these uncertainties [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant reduction in the U.S. trade deficit, which fell to $29.4 billion in October, the lowest level since 2009, and a nearly 40% decrease from the previous month, defying market expectations [1][2] - The improvement in the trade deficit is attributed to a notable decline in imports and resilient exports, indicating a rare simultaneous improvement in both areas [1] - The recent trade data reflects adjustments in trade flows due to tariff policies, with companies accelerating the reconfiguration of supply chains and export structures under cost and policy pressures [1][2] Group 2 - The improvement in the trade deficit is not broad-based but concentrated in a few categories, such as a significant increase in gold and other metal exports, while imports of pharmaceutical products decreased, contributing to the lower deficit [2] - Market analysts suggest that the changes observed are more indicative of temporary behavior rather than a fundamental shift in trade trends [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains, with the U.S. Supreme Court set to rule on whether the government can impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which could impact import pressures [2] Group 3 - In addition to trade factors, monetary policy expectations are also in a sensitive phase, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary indicating that President Trump may finalize the next Federal Reserve Chair selection soon [3] - The current interest rate levels are still significantly above neutral, suggesting an openness to further easing, although most Federal Reserve officials prefer to maintain a wait-and-see approach until more inflation and employment data are available [3] - Overall, the significant narrowing of the trade deficit provides a temporary validation of tariff policy effects, but it is accompanied by structural changes in categories and corporate behavior adjustments, while uncertainties in monetary policy and personnel decisions continue to create market volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for China in 2025 is expected to show steady progress, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization, as indicated by the Chief Economist Confidence Index of 50.32 for January 2026, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The average forecast for December 2025 CPI year-on-year growth is 0.8%, slightly higher than the previous month's 0.7% [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0%, an improvement from -2.2% in the previous month [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 industrial added value year-on-year growth is 4.9%, up from 4.8% in November [13]. - The average forecast for December 2025 fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is -2.2%, an improvement from -2.6% in November [14]. - The average forecast for December 2025 social retail sales year-on-year growth is 1.8%, with a range from 0.6% to 4.9% [10][11]. - The average forecast for December 2025 trade surplus is $1113.5 billion, slightly lower than the previous month's $1116.8 billion [17]. - The average forecast for December 2025 new loans is 7182.5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [19]. - The average forecast for December 2025 total social financing is 1.8 trillion yuan, down from 2.5 trillion yuan in November [21]. - The average forecast for December 2025 M2 year-on-year growth is 8%, consistent with the previous month's figure [21][23]. - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves are expected to be $33579 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [23]. Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt issuance to support economic growth [25][27]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure liquidity and lower financing costs [26][27].

Group 1: Loan and Social Financing Trends - The median forecast for new RMB loans in December 2025 is 0.77 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.22 trillion yuan compared to 0.99 trillion yuan in December 2024 [2] - The median forecast for new social financing in December 2025 is 1.74 trillion yuan, down 1.12 trillion yuan from 2.86 trillion yuan in December 2024 [6][9] - High-frequency data indicates that the manufacturing and construction PMIs in December are above the threshold, recorded at 50.1% and 52.8% respectively, suggesting potential support for corporate loans [4] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - The CPI for December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, showing a smaller decline than anticipated [12][16] - Food prices rose by 1.1%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, contributing to the overall CPI increase [15] - The PPI decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [16][17] Group 3: Economic and Financial Conditions - The M1 growth rate is expected to continue its downward trend, while M2 growth is projected to slightly decline, leading to an expansion of the M2-M1 gap [10][11] - The pressure on local finances due to hidden debt becoming visible is expected to persist, affecting credit availability [5] - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with businesses likely to prioritize efficiency in capital usage amid uneven recovery in profits and cash flows [10]