新华财经上海7月14日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，7月11日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线上涨，CFETS人民币汇率指数报95.6，按周涨 0.3；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报101.16，按周涨0.54；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报90.52，按周涨0.36。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 95.60 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 101.16 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 90.52 | 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心 上周（7月7日至7月11日）美元迎来今年2月末以来最为强劲的反弹，全周累计涨幅达0.91%，报97.873；非美货币兑美元多数走弱，日元上周大幅收跌2%； 欧元上周最终收跌0.76%；受到低迷经济增长数据的影响，英镑上周持续自历史高位回落，最终收跌1.15%。 人民币汇率上周保持稳健，在主要货币中表现较为靠前，对一篮子货币亦出现小幅反弹。具体来看，离岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1736，全周累计跌90个基 点；人民币兑美元中间价报7.1475，创2024年11月8日以来最高，全周累计升60个基点 ...

美元指数日内微涨，特朗普称，欧盟正在与美国讨论贸易问题；韩国希望达成一份协议。 ...

美元指数DXY突破98，日内涨0.17%。 美元指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been experiencing high volatility, leading to poor performance of multiple gold-themed funds, with all 14 commodity gold ETFs showing negative returns over the past month [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since reaching $3,500 per ounce in April, COMEX gold futures have fluctuated between $3,100 and $3,400 per ounce for over two months [1] - As of July 11, all 14 commodity gold ETFs have recorded negative returns exceeding 2.5% over the past month, with some funds dropping more than 2.8% [1] - Over the past three months, the returns of these ETFs have been weak, with a total return of less than 2% [1] Group 2: Investment Fund Performance - Gold stock-themed funds have also shown lackluster performance, with several ETFs experiencing declines of over 4% in the past month [2] - The global physical gold ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion in May, marking the first monthly net outflow since November of the previous year [2] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global physical gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with total holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [2] Group 3: Divergent Short-term Views - There is a significant debate among institutions regarding the future trajectory of gold prices, with some predicting a decrease in upward momentum due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [2][3] - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential decline to $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by mid-2026 [2] - HSBC's investment director suggests that the investment demand for gold will decline as geopolitical tensions ease and global economic growth prospects improve [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term uncertainties, some analysts believe that gold prices are likely to trend upward in the long term due to various macroeconomic challenges facing the U.S. [3] - Factors supporting long-term gold prices include central banks' continued interest in gold, with nearly 43% planning to increase their reserves in the next year [3] - The expectation of a depreciating dollar and increasing U.S. fiscal deficits are also seen as favorable for gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced a significant decline of 10.79% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance in nearly 52 years, with a low of 96.37 reached on July 1, 2023 [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar index, with market expectations for further rate cuts in September 2023 [2] - The US economy is showing signs of weakness due to high interest rates and trade policy uncertainties, which may narrow the economic gap between the US and non-US countries, contributing to a weaker dollar index [2][3] Group 2 - The dollar's creditworthiness is under scrutiny due to persistent fiscal deficits and debt expansion, leading to a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 by Moody's, reflecting a decline in the credit quality of dollar assets [4] - The rise of "de-dollarization" rhetoric is weakening the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, which may exert long-term downward pressure on the dollar index [4]

Group 1 - The gold market experienced an upward trend on Thursday, influenced by a strong US dollar index and Trump's second wave of tax letters, closing with a bullish candlestick and fluctuating within a narrow range of $20 throughout the day [1] - The strong performance of the US dollar has somewhat mitigated the impact of changes in tariff policies, leading some investors to buy gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction remains a core focus for the global economy, with the current policy providing strong support for the dollar's strength, despite most officials leaning towards a rate cut this year [1] Group 2 - With the final execution date for tariffs extended to August 1, the market is experiencing a volatile trading pattern, with both upward and downward movements possible; however, the overall trend for gold remains bullish [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has shown signs of strengthening in the short term, with a recovery trend initiated after testing the 3310 level twice, and the 1-hour moving average beginning to turn upwards [3] - A suggested trading strategy is to buy on dips at 3313 with a stop loss at 3301 and a target range of 3335-3345, indicating a focus on the current spot gold market [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a strengthening dollar index supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with most officials favoring interest rate cuts this year, although rates remain unchanged for now [2] - The extension of tariff implementation to August 1 has led to a generally positive market outlook, with expectations for negotiations [2] - The technical analysis indicates a consolidation pattern in gold, with successful trades noted at specific price points [2] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil inventories have significantly increased, offsetting seasonal demand, alongside expectations of increased production from OPEC+ [4] - Recent attacks in the Red Sea have not sustained market speculation, leading to a technical retreat in oil prices [4] - The prevailing supply-demand imbalance suggests a continuation of a bearish outlook for oil, with recommendations to maintain a short position on rebounds [4] Group 3 - For gold, a buying opportunity is suggested around 3322/4 with a target of 3340/50 [5] - For oil, a selling opportunity is indicated around 67.6 with a target of 66/65 [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has seen a slight increase, currently at 97.80 [1] - US stock futures have experienced a minor decline, with Nasdaq futures down by 0.22% [1] - Earlier news indicates that Trump plans to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods [1]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has increased by over 0.50% in a single day, currently reported at 97.85, marking the highest level since June 25 [1] - The rise in the Dollar Index indicates strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies [1] Group 2 - The increase in the Dollar Index may reflect market reactions to economic data or geopolitical events influencing investor sentiment [1] - A higher Dollar Index can impact international trade and investment flows, potentially affecting various sectors [1]

张尧浠：基本面动荡不定、金价震荡调整仍有看涨预期 日内将可关注美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数(万人)，市场预期偏向利好金价，故此今日操作思路亚盘寻高做空，欧盘筑底做多入场，等待美盘再度走 强。 基本面上，特朗普将关税协议延长至8月1日开始再度征收，虽然缓解了市场紧张情绪，但其言论的到期后将不再延长，并发出关税威胁，这增加了全球贸 易不确定性，推高避险情绪，也使得后市仍面临关税带来的经济和通胀担忧，将还会削弱美元，支撑金价。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3301.86美元/盎司，短暂走强6美金后，回撤走低，欧盘时段筑底震荡，并先行录得日内低点3282.56美元，之后美盘时段开 始回升反弹，持续走强，延续盘尾录得日内高点3316.65美元，并最终收于3313.44美元，日振幅34.09美元，收涨11.58美元，涨幅0.35%。 影响上，受到美元指数近期止跌回升，以及技术回落的卖盘压力，欧盟表示可能在未来几天在8月1日前与美国达成贸易协议，而先行走低，但美元指数遇 阻表现，基本面的不确定性，令市场感到担忧而限制了金价跌幅； 另外，在支撑买盘，以及特朗普再次呼吁美联储降息，并宣称关税大限推迟至8月1日，是"最终期限， ...