Market Overview - On September 12, Hong Kong's three major indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.16% to 26,388.16 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.71% to 5,989.27 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 1.13% to 9,364.94 points [1] - Weekly performance showed the Hang Seng Index increased by 3.82%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31%, and the National Enterprises Index by 3.4% [1] - Notable stocks included Baidu Group rising over 8%, Alibaba up nearly 5.5%, Kuaishou up over 2.5%, and Tencent Holdings up over 2% [1] Southbound Capital - On September 12, southbound capital net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 73.31 billion HKD; the total net purchase for the previous week reached 608.22 billion HKD [2] - Year-to-date, southbound capital has net bought Hong Kong stocks totaling 1,072.88 billion HKD, significantly exceeding last year's total net inflow [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.59%, S&P 500 down 0.05%, and Nasdaq up 0.44%, continuing to set historical highs [3] - The U.S. tech giants index rose by 1.14%, with Tesla increasing over 7% and Apple up over 1% [3] Key News - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its September interest rate decision on September 18, with a 100% probability of a rate cut, including a 96.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Tencent Holdings announced a global medium-term note program totaling 30 billion USD, set to be listed on September 16, 2025, and issued only to professional investors [4] Short Selling Data - On September 12, 643 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of 32.827 billion HKD [5] - The top three stocks by short-selling amount were Alibaba at 5.602 billion HKD, Tencent Holdings at 2.725 billion HKD, and Baidu Group at 2.062 billion HKD [5] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities noted that expectations of interest rate cuts combined with AI developments are favorable for Hong Kong stocks [6] - Suggested sectors for investment include high-growth consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors with low valuations, AI industry chain, and high-dividend financial sectors for stable returns amid uncertainties [6] Hong Kong Related ETFs - Focus on Hong Kong's new consumer and technology sectors through ETFs, including the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) and the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a significant interest rate cut during its upcoming meeting, marking the first policy easing in nine months [1] - Economic indicators show a cooling labor market, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [1] - The median forecast from economists suggests a 25 basis point rate cut, with increasing speculation of a potential 50 basis point cut later in the year [2] Group 2: Gold Market - The expectation of a rate cut is driving global funds to accelerate purchases of gold, with a recommendation to focus on leading gold companies [2] - The geopolitical climate and trade disputes are enhancing the strategic value of precious metals, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Rare Earth and Strategic Metals - The rare earth industry is experiencing a clearer global monopoly due to strengthened export controls in China, with expectations of increased consumption of rare earth magnetic materials by Q3 2025 [2] - The supply tightness of praseodymium and neodymium oxides is providing strong support for rare earth prices, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies in the rare earth magnetic materials sector [2] - The strategic metals sector is anticipated to undergo a value reassessment, with recommendations to pay attention to rare earth magnetic materials and tungsten [2] Group 4: Related Companies - Key companies in the gold industry include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Lingbao Gold, China Gold International, and others [3] - Companies involved in rare earth magnetic materials include Jinli Permanent Magnet, while companies related to tungsten include Jiaxin International Resources [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts is consolidated, and precious metals maintain their strong momentum. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential transmission of tariff impacts make it difficult to eliminate the "stagflation-like" risk, so precious metals are expected to continue their strong performance at high levels [3][7]. - The market's trading focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump's interference with the Fed aims to force early and rapid interest rate cuts, which may increase inflation in the medium and long term, and the precious metals market may be pricing in this factor [17][25]. - The US economy shows signs of slowdown, with GDP growth having some false prosperity, consumption weakening, PMI indicators weakening, and the labor market cooling down [35][44][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - In the week, the US dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield were consolidating at low levels. Precious metals continued their upward momentum from last week, reaching new highs and consolidating near historical highs. Silver also followed the trend of gold. London gold and silver, as well as Shanghai gold and silver, all showed significant increases. The US dollar index was weak, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell again [3]. - The market's focus this week was on the US inflation situation. The previous week's US non-farm payroll data indicated a further cooling of the job market, which promoted the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. This week's PPI unexpectedly did not fall, and CPI rebounded moderately, which was interpreted by the market as reducing the obstacles to interest rate cuts this year and consolidating the dovish market expectation. The improvement of market risk sentiment allowed silver to catch up with the rise of gold [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider holding previous long positions based on the 5-day moving average. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Bullish collar option strategy [9]. 3.2 Macro - level Data Tracking 3.2.1 Market Trading Mainline - The market's trading focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has fluctuated with the release of economic data and policy developments [17][63][64]. 3.2.2 US Economic Situation - GDP: Although the second - quarter GDP growth was strong on the surface, a detailed analysis of sub - items showed that the growth was somewhat illusory. The sharp decline in imports in the second quarter increased the net export sub - item, while consumption and investment were weak [35]. - PMI: Both Markit and ISM manufacturing and service PMI indicators showed a weakening trend, indicating a slowdown in the US economic expansion [43][44]. - Employment: The US August non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with the number of new jobs falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a new high since October 2021, indicating a further cooling of the labor market [52]. - Inflation: The US August CPI increased moderately, and the PPI decreased, indicating that although Trump's tariff policy pushed up enterprise costs, enterprises avoided significant price increases last month [59]. 3.2.3 Market Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The market's current bet is that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, with the expected timing in September. The market's interest rate cut expectation has fluctuated with the performance of the US macro - economy and Trump's policies [63][64]. 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Gold Supply and Demand - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 2423 tons, with a slight decrease in gold mine production and an increase in recycled gold [70]. - Demand: The total global gold demand in the first half of 2025 increased by 13% year - on - year to 2385 tons. Investment demand increased significantly by 117%, while gold jewelry consumption decreased by 18% [70]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. China, Poland, Turkey, and India are among the active buyers. The reasons for central bank gold purchases include optimizing foreign exchange reserve structures, hedging geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promoting currency internationalization [78][80]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - Supply: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. It is expected to increase by 2% in 2025 to 32055 tons. The supply is relatively stable due to the associated nature of silver production [82]. - Demand: In 2024, global silver demand was 36208 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. It is expected to be 35713 tons in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The demand for photovoltaic silver, which has been a major factor affecting silver demand since 2022, is likely to slow down in 2025 due to limited growth space in the photovoltaic industry and the trend of reducing silver consumption [82]. - Inventory: Silver inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the supply - demand gap has also converged [82].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have declined significantly, driven by cooling employment and falling inflation, with the market fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - As of September 12, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 16 basis points to 4.06%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 6 basis points and the 30-year yield dropped by 20 basis points over the same two-week period [1] - The U.S. Treasury's fiscal deficit for December was reported at $344.8 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.89 trillion [1] Group 2 - The net short position in U.S. Treasury futures decreased to 5.915 million contracts, indicating a short-term closure of hedging demand in the interest rate market [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy statement has become more cautious, with market expectations for a 75 basis point rate cut by the end of the year exceeding 90% following weak non-farm payroll data on September 9 [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased by $71.79 billion over two weeks, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool shrank by $10.2 billion, adding uncertainty to liquidity buffers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields driven by cooling employment and falling inflation, with the market fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - As of September 12, the 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 16 basis points to 4.06%, while the 2-year yield fell by 6 basis points and the 30-year yield dropped by 20 basis points over the same two-week period [1] - The U.S. Treasury's fiscal deficit for December was reported at $344.8 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.89 trillion [1] Group 2 - The net short position in U.S. Treasury futures slightly decreased to 5.915 million contracts, indicating a short-term closure of hedging demand in the interest rate market [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures market saw a slight decline in net short positions to 209,000 contracts, reflecting an increased expectation for rate cuts [1] - Short-term projections suggest that rate cuts will lower short-term interest rates, while long-term considerations should focus on fiscal pressures and the impact of global de-dollarization on long-term rates [1]

本周，黄金周一继续强势上涨收阳，周二冲高回落，周三到周五维持高位震荡走势，周线最终收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 下周为"超级经济周"，多重重磅事件将影响黄金走势，具体如下： 周一：纽约制造业调查公布，反映区域经济活力，为市场提供初步经济基本面参考。 周二：8月美国零售销售报告发布，检验消费韧性，影响市场对美国经济走势的判断，进而作用于美联储政策预期。 周三：先是8月美国房屋开工与建筑许可数据出炉，随后加拿大央行公布货币政策决定，最关键的是美联储发布利率公告并召开鲍威尔新闻发布会，降息幅 度与鲍威尔的鸽派/鹰派基调将直接决定黄金短期走向。 周四：英国央行公布政策决定后，美国每周失业救济数据、费城联储制造业调查接踵而至，进一步补充经济基本面信息，影响市场情绪。 周五：日本央行公布决策，为当周全球央行政策密集期收官，或对全球流动性预期及黄金市场产生间接影响。 对于美联储利率决议，降息周期重启在即，点阵图成关键博弈点。 降息预期：市场普遍预计9月会议将降息25个基点（概率高），仅7%概率降息50个基点；市场定价显示，年内剩余3次会议或每次降息25个基点（累计70个 基点），2026年底预计降息141个基点。 核心关注点 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance from September 8 to September 12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.82% to 26,388.16 points, marking the highest level since September 2021 [4][5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 5.31%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 3.40% [4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong market, all but the healthcare sector saw gains, with real estate, information technology, and materials leading the way with increases of 6.56%, 6.08%, and 5.71% respectively [5][12] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 303.03 billion, a decrease of HKD 12.76 billion from the previous week [12] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 60.82 billion, an increase of HKD 27.76 billion compared to the previous week [12] - The short-selling amount averaged HKD 34.40 billion, which accounted for 11.38% of the trading volume, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the previous week [12] Group 3 - As of September 12, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.04 times and 1.23 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.7% and 4.47% from the previous week [17] - The Hang Seng Technology Index had a PE ratio of 23.12 times and a PB ratio of 3.38 times, indicating that it is positioned at the 31% and 73% percentile levels since 2019 [17] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.25%, which is at the 5% percentile level since 2010 [20][26] Group 4 - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors with high earnings growth but relatively low valuations, such as consumer discretionary and healthcare [40] - It also suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as the AI industry chain and consumer sectors [40] - Financial sectors with high dividend yields are expected to provide stable returns amid uncertainties [40]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has strengthened, leading to upward price movements in both industrial and precious metals [1][2] - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the recent price reaching 80,810 CNY/ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1] - Aluminum prices have also increased, with the Shanghai aluminum price at 21,075 CNY/ton, supported by stable production and improved demand from the automotive sector [1][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases due to soft labor market signals and expectations of continued central bank purchases [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - **Copper**: Prices have rebounded due to reduced market supply and stable demand, with domestic copper inventory at 149,000 tons [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Prices have increased due to stable supply and improved demand, with LME aluminum inventory rising to 485,300 tons [1][22][23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 821.23 CNY/g and silver at 9,773 CNY/kg, supported by macroeconomic factors [2][27] 2. Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices have shown mixed trends, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 286,500 CNY/ton, while market sentiment remains cautious [3][61] - **Rare Earths**: Prices have stabilized, with light rare earth oxide at 575,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4] 3. Market Predictions - **Copper**: Expected to maintain a high level of volatility, with prices projected to range between 79,600-81,000 CNY/ton [14] - **Aluminum**: Anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 20,400-21,000 CNY/ton [23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to range between 800-840 CNY/g, while silver is projected to be between 9,000-9,900 CNY/kg [28]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market, after a significant rise of $14 trillion, is approaching a critical turning point with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week [1] - The S&P 500 index has surged 32% since April, driven by expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated next week [1][3] - Concerns about a potential "hard landing" for the economy have emerged, fueled by recent economic data, including a report showing the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [4] Group 2 - A structural shift in the market is occurring, with a trillion-dollar influx of funds driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which is providing stable support for risk assets regardless of economic data [3][4] - ETFs have attracted over $800 billion in funds this year, with $475 billion flowing into the stock market, potentially setting a record for annual inflows exceeding $1 trillion [4][6] - The "automatic driving effect" of retirement savings being regularly invested into passive index funds is reshaping market dynamics and influencing the transmission of monetary policy [6] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that after the Fed pauses rate hikes for six months or more and then resumes cuts, the S&P 500 typically sees an average increase of 15% over the following year [3][7] - Investment strategies are being shaped by the anticipated speed and magnitude of Fed rate cuts, with cyclical sectors performing best during mild economic slowdowns and defensive sectors favored during deeper downturns [7][8] - Investors are focusing on different sectors, with some favoring small-cap stocks and others maintaining positions in leading companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet, betting on their resilience amid economic slowdowns [8]

Group 1: Tesla - Tesla's stock surged over 7%, reaching its highest level since January 31 [2] - The company launched a long-wheelbase six-seat electric SUV, Model Y L, in China, which sold out in October, with new orders expected to be delivered by November 2025 [2] - Tesla's chairman, Robyn Denholm, emphasized that artificial intelligence and autonomous driving are the company's top priorities, and praised Elon Musk's leadership during transformative times [2] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock increased by 0.37%, as reports indicated the company is gradually scaling back its nascent cloud computing business, DGX Cloud [3] - This shift is seen as easing competitive pressure with major cloud service providers, particularly with its largest customer [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, with each cut expected to be 25 basis points [4][6] - Economic data, including the August CPI and initial jobless claims, have fueled expectations for these rate cuts [4] - Concerns exist regarding the potential for over-optimism in rate cut expectations, particularly if inflation rises unexpectedly due to supply-side factors [6] - The performance of the financial markets post-rate cuts will heavily depend on the overall health of the U.S. economy [6]