Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility last week, closing lower amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate expectations, with the S&P 500 index down 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock valuations were interpreted as a warning against current market overheating, putting pressure on liquidity-dependent tech stocks [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August rose 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations and alleviating some market sentiment on Friday [1] - Despite high valuations, the market remains optimistic about potential interest rate cuts in October and December, suggesting continued expectations for accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: QDII Fund Dynamics - The overall premium level of QDII funds slightly rebounded last week, particularly notable in U.S. broad-based funds, which averaged a 1.68% increase, indicating renewed investor interest in these assets [1] - Several QDII funds, especially those focused on U.S. stocks, have seen adjustments in daily subscription limits, which may impact investor strategies and market liquidity [2] - The performance of various QDII funds will be influenced by macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy movements, with a focus on inflation pressures and employment data changes [2]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged to 1108 CNY per gram, creating a significant price disparity among different retailers, with some stores like Shanghai China Gold still displaying prices as low as 1011 CNY per gram, leading to market tensions [1][2] - The international gold market has shown fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a high of 3761.38 USD per ounce and closing at 3748.13 USD, reflecting a slight increase of 0.32% [2] - The market is currently influenced by various factors, including U.S. economic indicators and geopolitical tensions, which are affecting investor sentiment and gold price movements [2][4] Price Dynamics - Retail gold prices are not uniform, with significant differences observed among various stores, indicating a competitive market where consumers are encouraged to compare prices [1][3] - The recovery prices for gold are also varied, with differences of over 10 CNY per gram among retailers, suggesting a potential for arbitrage opportunities for consumers [3][4] - The cost of gold jewelry includes additional processing fees, which can vary significantly based on the design and retailer, impacting the overall purchase price for consumers [4][5] Market Sentiment - Consumer behavior is influenced by current market conditions, with some buyers expressing a desire to purchase gold for personal reasons rather than as an investment or hedge [3] - There is a cautious sentiment among consumers regarding price fluctuations, with some opting to wait for more favorable conditions before making purchases [4][5] - The market is characterized by a mix of urgency and caution, as consumers navigate the volatility of gold prices while considering their personal financial situations [4][5]

Group 1 - Spot gold showed strong performance during the Asian trading session, reaching a historical high of $3,819 per ounce, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly up from 2.6% in July, aligning with market expectations [2] - The market is pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which continues to support gold prices [2] Group 2 - Several key Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, and their comments could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, potentially impacting gold prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are approaching the upper boundary of an ascending channel, with traders advised to monitor reactions at this level [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 75.90, indicating that gold is in an overbought territory, suggesting a potential for short-term consolidation or slight pullback [4]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 29 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for silver rising over 3% and gold and apple contracts increasing over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1465.58 points, up 1.21 points or 0.08% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - International gold prices surpassed $3800 per ounce and silver prices exceeded $47 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand [2] - Both gold and silver have seen year-to-date increases of over 40%, making them standout assets amid monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3: Apple Market Dynamics - The apple contract reached a six-month high, supported by strong consumer demand and stable prices for quality goods, despite a slight decline in inventory turnover [3] - The expectation for higher opening prices for the new apple season also contributed to the positive market sentiment [3] Group 4: Black Metals Sector - The black metals sector continued to decline, with coking coal contracts dropping by 4.98%, reflecting a cooling market sentiment and nearing the end of downstream replenishment demand [4] - The overall fundamentals for black metals are expected to remain weak in the short term, with market participants awaiting further demand recovery post-holiday [4] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Market - The industrial silicon market remains oversupplied, with stable supply but no significant demand improvement, leading to a drop of 4.33% in the main contract [5] - The market sentiment has cooled, but prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a focus on inventory pressures in the fourth quarter [5]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices continue to rise significantly due to sustained investment demand and increasing risk aversion amid the looming U.S. government shutdown and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - As of September 29, international spot gold prices have reached a historic high above $3,800, while silver prices have also surged past $47 [1]. - Silver prices have increased approximately 5% within two trading days, breaking the $46 per ounce mark, and further rising to over $47 per ounce [2]. - Platinum has seen a nearly 10% increase over three trading days, surpassing $1,600 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Prices - Despite hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, the probability of a rate cut in October remains around 90% due to low inflation pressures indicated by the August PCE price index [2]. - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown, exacerbated by the Senate's rejection of a temporary funding bill, is contributing to rising gold prices alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and investment demand [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve personnel and potential market disruptions is bolstering risk aversion, leading to increased buying of precious metals as a hedge [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the bullish momentum for gold and silver is expected to continue, profit-taking may occur following the release of key global economic indicators [5][6]. - Historical data indicates that revisions to non-farm payroll figures often occur in October, which could amplify market volatility if any contrary signals arise [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Gold**: Long - term holding. Despite PCE not supporting significant rate cuts, risks such as the US government shutdown and dovish statements from Fed officials provide support. The long - term supporting logic for gold remains unchanged with the start of the rate - cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - **Silver**: Long - term holding for long - term positions, light - position for short - term positions during holidays. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is also supported by the sentiment of other metals like copper. Global policy stimulus is evident, demand for silver is strong, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap [1]. - **Copper**: Long - term holding. The bullish factors from the Indonesian mine accident have been fully digested by the market, and the Fed's October rate - cut expectation is slightly weakened. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to its strategic importance in the China - US game and the shortage of copper concentrates [1][7]. - **Zinc**: Close short positions and prepare for empty or light positions during holidays. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][11]. - **Lead**: Price rebound is under pressure. Enterprises for primary and recycled lead are resuming production, while the expectation of the consumption peak season is still in doubt [1]. - **Tin**: Price rebound is under pressure. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production halts in the domestic supply side, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price is under pressure. The expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals and the unsmooth destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas contribute to this [1]. - **Nickel**: Price is under pressure. The impact of overseas disturbances on the Indonesian nickel mine has weakened, domestic refined nickel supply remains high, and downstream stainless - steel inventory is piling up again [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebound is under pressure. Supply decreases month - on - month while downstream stocking boosts the operating rate, and there is a co - existence of cost support and high inventory [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Cautiously bullish. There is uncertainty in polysilicon production in October, and the execution of industry production control and sales reduction needs attention. Strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wide - range oscillation. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks. Downstream pre - holiday restocking is basically over [1]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - Despite inflation meeting expectations, risk events such as the government shutdown provided support for the bulls, and gold and silver reached new highs [2]. Basic Logic - The US government is approaching a shutdown, and the political deadlock between the two parties remains unresolved. The White House has started formulating a "government shutdown plan". Although historical experience shows that the issue will eventually be resolved, the short - term impact on the market cannot be underestimated. - The uncertainty of US rate cuts has increased. The US core PCE price index in August met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. Inflation remains sticky, consumption is still strong, Trump's tariffs are back, and internal differences are widening. - Consumer confidence has significantly decreased. The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September dropped to a four - month low, and the inflation expectations were slightly lower than the initial and previous values. - In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring, and may continue its long - term bull market [3]. Strategy Recommendation - The market performance is strong, with short - term support at 840 for gold and around 10200 for silver. Long - term long positions can hold through holidays, and short - term long positions can hold with light positions. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Group 3: Copper Market Review - The price of Shanghai copper has pulled back from its high [6]. Industrial Logic - The supply of copper concentrates is tight. The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has intensified the shortage concern. Although China's copper ore imports increased in August, the imports of unforged copper decreased month - on - month, and the pressure on the smelting end has increased. In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased due to smelter maintenance. Global visible inventory is at a high level, high copper prices suppress demand, and the market trading is dull [6]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday and the weakening of the Fed's October rate - cut expectation, it is recommended that short - term speculative long positions take profit, prepare for empty or light positions during holidays, and long - term strategic long positions hold with option protection. Industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged. In the long - term, copper is still favored [7]. Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has oscillated weakly and broken through the key support at 21800 [10]. Industrial Logic - The supply of zinc concentrates is loose in 2025. Although the imports in August decreased month - on - month, they increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of SHFE zinc has increased significantly, while the LME zinc inventory continues to decline. The demand from downstream enterprises is weak, and the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has decreased [10]. Strategy Recommendation - As the macro and sector sentiment has cooled down, zinc has returned to a weak reality. It is recommended to close short positions and prepare for empty or light positions during holidays. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - The price of aluminum has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has shown a weak trend at a low level [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas rate cuts met expectations. Domestic production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased, and enterprises were actively stocking up before the long holiday. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect September arrivals, and the supply pressure has increased with the increase in operating capacity and the opening of the import window [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20500, 21300] [15]. Group 6: Nickel Market Review - The price of nickel has faced pressure and weakened, and stainless steel has shown a downward trend [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas rate cuts met expectations. The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel is in excess, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The domestic pure nickel inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. For stainless steel, the consumption peak season is uncertain, inventory has increased, and the supply has also increased [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000, 123000] [19]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has pulled back after reaching a high and closed slightly lower at the end of the session [21]. Industrial Logic - Supply has not significantly shrunk, with weekly production remaining above 20,000 tons and the operating rate close to 50%. Demand has received positive support from relevant policies, and downstream orders are scheduled until the end of the year. Total inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks, and smelter inventory is significantly lower than last year [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [72900, 74100] [23].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance from September 22 to September 26, with fuel, shipping, and precious metals leading gains, while black metals and agricultural products faced declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel rose by 4.36% and crude oil by 0.88%, while black metals like iron ore, coking coal, and coke fell by 2.17%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively [1] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with gold up 3.07% and silver up 6.63%, while agricultural products like soybean meal and eggs dropped by 2.55% and 2.44% respectively [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged, reaching a 14-year high of over $46 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 59.52%, significantly outpacing gold's 43.59% rise [2][3] - Industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, is a key driver for silver prices, with industrial applications accounting for 58% of total silver demand [2] - Geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, with a current gold-silver ratio indicating silver's relative undervaluation [3] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The copper market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 3.28% to 82,470 yuan/ton due to supply disruptions from major mines [5][6] - Global copper production has been affected by natural disasters, leading to a projected 35% decrease in output from Freeport's Grasberg mine by 2026 [5] - Despite a decline in traditional demand from the real estate sector, new energy and grid investments are showing resilience, with electric grid investment up 12.5% year-on-year [6] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - Industrial profits in China showed a strong recovery, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase from January to August, and a notable 20.4% rise in August alone [8][9] - The recovery is attributed to improved profit margins and a decrease in costs, with upstream industries like steel and non-ferrous metals seeing significant profit growth [8] - However, the recovery remains fragile, with notable disparities between different sectors and ownership types [9] Group 5: Policy Developments in Nonferrous Metals - A joint plan by eight government departments aims for a 5% annual growth in the nonferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing its strategic importance [12][13] - The plan includes specific targets for production growth and the development of key resources like copper and lithium, alongside initiatives for recycling and digital transformation [12][13] - The policy also highlights the need for improved resource security and innovation in the industry to address current challenges [13]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to rise sharply due to sustained investment demand, heightened risk aversion from the impending U.S. government shutdown, and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, with gold prices surpassing $3,800 and silver breaking the $47 mark [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have seen significant increases, with silver rising approximately 5% over two trading days, reaching over $47 per ounce [2]. - Platinum has also experienced a surge, gaining about 10% in the last three trading days and surpassing $1,600 per ounce [3]. - The recent market dynamics indicate a strong demand for precious metals, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which currently stands at a 90% probability for October [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing as the fiscal year ends, with certain federal agencies facing funding shortages, which could further drive gold prices up [3][4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's personnel and its independence is contributing to market risk aversion, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals [4]. - Analysts suggest that the traditional stock-bond portfolio is becoming less effective in the face of rising inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to increased allocations in commodities, particularly gold [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Despite the bullish momentum in precious metals, analysts caution that profit-taking may occur following the release of key global economic indicators [5][6]. - Speculative funds have reduced their net long positions in gold futures by 1% as of September 23, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6]. - The upcoming national holidays may lead to typical position adjustments, which could increase short-term volatility in gold and silver prices [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On September 29, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported at 861.18 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.72% [1] - The opening price for the main gold futures was 857.70 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 855.56 CNY [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.50% to 3789.8 USD per ounce [4] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The US PCE inflation met expectations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn pushed gold prices to new highs [1] - The three major US stock indices rose across the board, while the three major European stock indices also closed higher [1] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Attention is focused on the first formal negotiations between the two US parties before the funding deadline, as well as US August existing home sales and the Eurozone September economic sentiment index [5] - The expectation of interest rate cuts and concerns over a potential US government shutdown are likely to further drive up gold prices [5] - The Shanghai gold premium has narrowed to -9.4 CNY per gram, with a suggested trading range for Shanghai gold futures between 857-868 CNY [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to address the core issues in interest rate research by combining "longitudinal prediction" of liquidity and "horizontal pricing" of interest rates Through two technical routes - interest rate swap pricing and floating - rate bond spread analysis, it quantifies the implied interest - rate cut expectations in current market transactions, and based on the current market consensus, it assesses potential bond market expectations and investment opportunities if policy easing occurs [6][11][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 From the Core Issues of Fundamentals to Interest Rate Pricing Traditional liquidity analysis has limitations such as qualitative speculation, over - focus on history, and over - emphasis on the future Effective interest rate research needs to combine "longitudinal prediction" and "horizontal pricing", and the report uses two technical routes to analyze implied interest - rate cut expectations in market transactions to provide a basis for judging future bond market trends and investment opportunities [12][13] 3.2 Interest Rate Swap Pricing 3.2.1 How to Observe Implied Interest - Rate Cut Expectations through Interest Rate Swaps? The market's expectation of policy rate cuts can be approximated as the expectation of a decline in the future funding rate center Interest rate swaps, such as 1Y FR007, can provide a fair market indicator The spread between 1Y FR007 and the current FR007 is an effective proxy variable for measuring interest - rate cut expectations Since 2024, the evolution of interest - rate cut expectations can be divided into four stages: in 2024H1, expectations were flat; in 2024H2, expectations rapidly increased; from February to March 2025, expectations were revised; from Q2 2025 to the present, expectations gradually cleared [14][15] 3.2.2 Is the Interest - Rate Cut Expectation Predicted by Interest Rate Swaps Reliable? Interest rate swaps have two advantages: they truly reflect market consensus as the prices are formed by real - money transactions, and active trading ensures pricing efficiency However, differences in investor structure and trading motivation between the interest rate swap market and the cash bond market may lead to short - term pricing deviations [19][20] 3.3 Floating - Rate Pricing The report selects floating - rate bonds linked to DR007 as research objects and uses the spread between the floating - rate bond's yield to maturity and the benchmark interest rate as the core observation indicator Since last December, the spread trend can be divided into three stages: from December last year to January this year, the spread converged rapidly; from February to March this year, the spread widened significantly; from Q2 this year to the present, the spread remained high and continued to rise, indicating a significant reversal of the market's easing expectations compared to the beginning of the year [21][25][27] 3.4 Summary Through cross - verification of the two technical routes, the current market's interest - rate cut expectations have basically cleared, and the current pricing may even imply a marginal tightening of policies If an interest - rate cut signal is released or an actual cut occurs in the fourth quarter, it may form an expectation gap with the current low market consensus, which is beneficial to the bond market However, interest rate trends are affected by multiple factors and need further analysis [28]