Core Insights - The "Understanding China" International Conference is being held for the 12th year, focusing on the theme of "New Layout, New Development, New Choices - Chinese-style Modernization and the New Global Governance Pattern" [1] - The conference aims to discuss the significance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and its implications for global governance, emphasizing China's role in providing new opportunities for developing countries [2][3] Group 1: Conference Themes and Objectives - The conference introduces two new topics: understanding the 14th Five-Year Plan and the four global initiatives, including the Global Governance Initiative [2] - The 14th Five-Year Plan is seen as a departure from the notion that modernization equals Westernization, offering new choices for developing countries [2][6] - The conference serves as a platform for global South countries to learn from China's modernization experience and to promote the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind [3][7] Group 2: International Cooperation and China's Role - Former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi highlights China's increasing importance in international cooperation, contrasting it with the past U.S.-led initiatives [2] - The conference emphasizes the need for collaboration among nations, particularly in the context of global challenges [2][4] - The participation of representatives from 72 countries, with a significant portion from the global South, indicates the growing influence of the conference [3] Group 3: Economic Strategies and Development Plans - The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on domestic demand and international cooperation as core components of China's modernization strategy [3][6] - The plan aims to integrate economic growth with global cooperation, emphasizing shared opportunities and mutual development [6][7] - The plan includes innovative strategies for technology and industry, aiming to establish new economic growth points [8][9] Group 4: Regional Development and Innovation - The conference discusses the development experiences of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan Free Trade Port, highlighting their roles in China's modernization [12][13] - The Greater Bay Area is viewed as a vibrant region with significant potential for economic development and innovation [12] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enhance international trade and cooperation, marking a new phase of China's high-level opening up [13]

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have rebounded significantly, continuing the upward trend from the previous week, indicating the start of the year-end market rally [1] - The recent market adjustment, particularly in the technology sector, is viewed as a normal correction rather than the end of the bullish trend, suggesting that the market is still in a growth phase [1] Technology Sector Insights - The current bull market is driven by multiple factors, including the recently approved "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes support for technology innovation in areas such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and biomedicine [2] - The technology sector is expected to continue leading the market, with significant profit opportunities anticipated in 2026 as the bull market deepens [2][3] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a balanced allocation strategy to capture structural opportunities across various sectors, including technology, new energy, and consumer goods [3][4] - The bull market is expected to last longer than a short-term spike, providing a more sustainable investment environment that can enhance household wealth and stimulate economic recovery [4] Future Market Expectations - The technology bull market is projected to persist into 2026, with an anticipated sequence of market leadership starting with "small tech stocks," followed by "mid-tech stocks," and eventually traditional sectors [3] - The current market dynamics suggest a rotation pattern that could become a defining characteristic of this bull market, highlighting the importance of both growth and value investments [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is expected to experience an early "spring rally" due to easing external pressures and improving internal conditions [2][3] - The focus for December should be on growth sectors, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and new productive forces [3] Group 1: Market Environment - In November, market momentum was limited due to seasonal effects and external pressures, including tightening global liquidity and concerns over AI industry bubbles [1] - As of December, the pressure on the A-share market is gradually easing, with an 80% probability of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, creating a warmer overall atmosphere [2] - The sentiment around AI stocks has stabilized, reducing the emotional pressure on related A-share sectors [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for investment in December: the AI industry chain and sectors related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Specific sectors to watch include chip design, semiconductor equipment, and platform companies with full-stack technical capabilities [4] - High-growth areas such as energy storage and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including: - BeiGene (688235.SH) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a projected EPS growth from 3.66 in 2026 to 6.73 in 2027 [5] - Haisco (002653.SZ), also in pharmaceuticals, with a projected EPS of 0.70 in 2026 and 0.81 in 2027 [5] - Longking (600388.SH) in environmental services, with a projected EPS of 1.20 in 2026 and 1.37 in 2027 [5] - Maiwei (300751.SZ) in machinery, with a projected EPS of 3.14 in 2026 and 3.93 in 2027 [5] - Yutong Bus (600066.SH) in the automotive sector, with a projected EPS of 2.67 in 2026 and 3.18 in 2027 [5] - Cambricon (688256.SH) in electronics, with a projected EPS of 11.64 in 2026 and 20.88 in 2027 [5] - CATL (300750.SZ) in new energy, with a projected EPS of 18.90 in 2026 and 23.35 in 2027 [5] - Alibaba (9988.HK) in media and internet, with a projected EPS of 4.33 in 2026 and 6.44 in 2027 [5] - Xianle Health (300791.SZ) in food and beverage, with a projected EPS of 1.37 in 2026 and 1.64 in 2027 [5] - Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) in energy and chemicals, with a projected EPS of 5.13 in 2026 and 5.79 in 2027 [5] Group 4: Financial Data - The report provides financial forecasts for the top stock picks, indicating expected revenue and net profit growth across various sectors [62][63] - For example, BeiGene is projected to achieve a revenue of 370.27 billion in 2025, increasing to 462.80 billion in 2026 [63] - CATL is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 4226.04 billion in 2025 and 5349.47 billion in 2026 [63]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of non - ferrous related industries will prioritize high - quality development, resolve supply - side involution, reduce ineffective supply, and control smelting - end production capacity. Copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will continue to benefit from the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and the booming development of emerging and future industries. The industrial pattern of non - ferrous and new energy varieties will be further improved and optimized, and price trends will be more boosted by the supply and demand sides [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Importance of the 15th Five - Year Plan Period" The 15th Five - Year Plan period is crucial for basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a connecting link between the past and the future. It is necessary to consolidate advantages, break through bottlenecks, and strengthen weak points. Adhering to high - quality development is particularly important for the non - ferrous metal industry pattern [6]. 3.2 "Main Goals and Industrial System Planning of the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Main Goals**: The main goals include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deep - seated reforms, a notable improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. High - quality development is prioritized, and the non - ferrous metal industry will focus on high - quality development, addressing supply - side issues and strengthening effective demand. The goal of a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance highlights the importance of science and technology, which will drive the high - quality development of the non - ferrous new energy industry [8][11][12]. - **Industrial System Planning Clues for Non - Ferrous Metals**: In the industrial system planning, traditional industries such as mining and metallurgy related to non - ferrous metals will continue supply - side reforms. Emerging and future industries, such as new energy and quantum technology, will drive the demand for non - ferrous and new energy materials. Non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will benefit from the development of both traditional and emerging/future industries [14][15][16]. 3.3 "Prospects for Non - Ferrous Metal Terminal Industries in the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Wind Power, Photovoltaic and Grid Energy Storage**: The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system. The scale of new energy installations is expected to reach a new high, and the demand for energy storage and grid investment will increase to support the consumption and stable operation of new energy [17][20]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes green development. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to further increase. Although the growth rate may decline, new energy vehicles will remain an important driver of the domestic economy [21][23]. - **AI Industry**: The 15th Five - Year Plan has higher requirements for scientific and technological self - reliance. The development of the AI industry will drive the growth of semiconductor chips and increase the demand for energy storage in AI data centers, becoming a new growth engine for non - ferrous and new energy materials [24].

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷对即将开启的"十五五"规划进行深入解读。他表示，新 规划将以推动高质量发展为主题，科技自强、提振消费和全国统一大市场建设三大亮点尤为值得关注。 李迅雷指出，十五五规划的第二大亮点是要建设强大的国内市场，大力提振消费。他强调，当前所强调 的消费已非传统概念，而是更多与人口老龄化趋势和新生代消费习惯相适应的新型消费。 他通过数据对比阐明，中国的人均消费量已超过西方，且传统消费规模本身已在收缩。以白酒为例，中 国消费量从十年前的1500万吨降至目前的400万吨。因此提振消费需聚焦新方向。 李迅雷特别指出，消费对GDP贡献度的提升将是一个"被动"趋势。其依据是，财政补贴社保的支出占比 持续攀升，从2013年的5.3%增至2023年的8.8%，预计2030年将达12%，规模约4万亿元。这一数据意味 着，由人口结构变化所驱动的经济转型，将自然而然地提升消费在GDP中的比重。 他认为，这一趋势引出的关键议题在于哪些领域将涌现巨大消费需 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts for China, reflecting an optimistic outlook based on government spending and export growth, with a focus on achieving the economic goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][8]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The actual GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5.0%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased from 4.3% and 4.0% to 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, primarily due to an upward revision in export growth predictions [5][8]. - The expectation is that China's exports will grow by 5-6% annually over the next few years, outpacing global trade growth and contributing to overall economic expansion [8]. Export Growth Insights - Despite challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., China's actual exports are projected to achieve an annual growth rate of approximately 8%, driven by the competitiveness of Chinese products across various sectors [7][8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors, which is expected to support continued rapid growth in exports and an increase in global market share [7]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to gradually diminish, with the drag on GDP growth estimated at around 2 percentage points annually for 2024 and 2025, potentially decreasing by about 0.5 percentage points each year thereafter [9]. - Recent data indicates a significant decline in new construction starts, with a 20% month-on-month drop in October, and a 30% decrease in second-hand housing prices since their peak in 2021 [9][10]. Policy Measures for Real Estate Stabilization - Potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market include removing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and providing subsidies for first-time homebuyers [9][11]. - Strategies to reduce excess inventory and support distressed borrowers are also suggested, including converting vacant properties for other uses and providing financial assistance to homeowners facing difficulties [10][11]. Consumer Spending Trends - There are early signs of recovery in the high-end retail market, with a shift in household savings from fixed deposits to more liquid forms, indicating an improvement in risk appetite [12]. - The process of increasing consumer spending as a share of GDP is expected to be gradual, requiring time to identify effective policy tools [12][13]. Future Policy Directions - The Chinese government is anticipated to implement more accommodative policies in the coming months, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and addressing challenges in the real estate sector [14]. - Expected measures include a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points and an increase in the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio from 12.0% in 2025 to 13.0% in 2026 [14].

Market Overview - In November 2025, major indices experienced a decline after reaching a ten-year high earlier in the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 4.23% [5][10] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic despite short-term fluctuations, supported by improving fundamentals and policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][37] Economic Environment Analysis - The global economy is expected to remain stable, with the IMF projecting a slight decline in global growth rates from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 [17] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue its interest rate cuts in December, which could positively influence market conditions [18][34] - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [21] Policy Measures - Recent policies are focused on enhancing consumer spending and ensuring a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with specific measures to stimulate demand across various sectors [25][27] - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further interest rate cuts and adjustments to enhance market adaptability [28][33] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in sectors such as basic chemicals, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and machinery [38][39] - In the basic chemicals sector, there is a focus on new materials and fine chemicals, driven by national policies aimed at upgrading key industries [39] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from rapid growth in AI infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, particularly with companies like Apple leading the charge [41][42] Industry Insights - The electric power equipment sector is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from price competition to value-driven strategies, particularly in the solar energy segment [47] - The machinery sector is seeing robust demand driven by major infrastructure projects and technological advancements, with a notable increase in exports [49] - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth, particularly in AI-related applications, as domestic companies ramp up production capabilities in response to global demand [46]

Core Viewpoint - The seminar focused on understanding the strategic opportunities and risks during China's 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the importance of integrating the spirit of the 20th National Congress into research and practice [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Opportunities and Risks - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is seen as a critical time for achieving socialist modernization, coinciding with significant global power shifts and changes in international order [4]. - The international environment has shifted from a focus on "peace and development" to recognizing the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties [5]. - The competition between China and the U.S. is framed not just as a bilateral rivalry but as a contest between two modernization paths, with the 14th Five-Year Plan being a decisive period for these competing models [6]. Group 2: Political and Cultural Context - The seminar highlighted the need for a unified political system that integrates the leadership of the Party, the role of the people, and the rule of law, which is essential for contemporary Chinese political development [7][8]. - The construction of a Chinese autonomous knowledge system is deemed necessary, emphasizing the integration of Marxist principles with traditional Chinese culture [9]. Group 3: Economic and Social Development Goals - The seminar identified three major areas of risk and challenge for the next five years: maintaining an average economic growth rate of around 5%, achieving military goals, and navigating the complexities of U.S.-China relations [8]. - The need for a coordinated approach to address these challenges was emphasized, ensuring that the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan are met effectively [8]. Group 4: International Relations and Perception - The U.S. perception of China is characterized by extreme views, which complicates the geopolitical landscape and poses new risks during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10]. - Strengthening people-to-people exchanges and improving mutual understanding between China and the U.S. is seen as vital for stabilizing bilateral relations and fostering a more predictable international environment [10].

"十五五规划"中提出了十五五时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中首要提出"高质量发展取得显著成 效。经济增长保持在合理区间，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动 力作用持续增强，经济增长潜力得到充分释放，全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，超大规模市场优势持续 显现，新兴工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化取得重大进展，发展新质生产力、构建新发展格局、 建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"。这一部署充分凸显我国超大规模市场的独特优势与内需驱动的战 略重要性，我们长期看好内需领域优质企业的投资价值与回报潜力。 规划同时将"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"列为核心目标之一，明确提出培育壮大新兴产业与未来产业， 打造新兴支柱产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群化发展。 展望未来，"十五五规划"明确指出："世界百年变局加速演进，国际力量对比深刻调整，新一轮科技革 命和产业变革加速突破，我国具备主动运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境的诸多有利因素。"这一判断已在 多重领域得到实践验证：9月3日纪念抗日战争胜利80周年阅兵顺利举行，多款先进武器装备集中亮相， 既彰显了我国制造业的核心竞争力，也为市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which provides direction for the national economic and social development over the next five years and beyond, particularly for the high-quality development of the petroleum and chemical industry [1][2]. Group 1 - The meeting highlighted the need for all staff to enhance their political awareness and understand the significance of the Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the strategic deployment for building a modern industrial system, achieving high-level technological self-reliance, and promoting green and low-carbon transformation [2][3]. - The meeting outlined six key tasks for the media organization to effectively implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session, including deepening learning, strengthening training, conducting special lectures, enhancing news publicity, transforming research, and guiding inspections [2]. - The meeting stressed that the effectiveness of the learning implementation depends on responsibility assignment, urging all levels of party organizations to strengthen leadership and collaboration among various groups to integrate the session's spirit with industry development [3].