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期货投资

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Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:24

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: Adopt strategies of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on PX and short on EB. Due to the maintenance of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the reduced load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, supply decreases, leading to a significant jump in PXN [7]. - PTA: Implement a positive spread strategy. In terms of supply - demand, PTA's supply decreases while demand increases, continuing the de - stocking pattern [7]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, and exit the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct positive spread operations on basis and calendar spread. Due to the unexpected shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene unit, the maintenance of its 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol unit is advanced, expected to last for one month. Supply is expected to decrease by 150,000 tons per month, and the de - stocking intensity from May to June will increase. On the demand side, after the tariff reduction, the operating rate of MEG's downstream polyester factories will increase again due to the recovery of terminal orders, with the expected high of the operating rate raised to 95% [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Changes**: On May 13, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main contract closing prices were 6708, 4750, 4349, 6496, and 3541 respectively, with daily changes of 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09's values on May 13 were 148, 148, 40, 26, and - 609 respectively, with daily changes of 66, 22, 17, 4, and - 195 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: For PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07's processing margin on the futures market, and PTA09 - LU09, their values on May 13 were 390, 401, - 1664, 840, and 1314 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 7, - 22, 6, and 35 [1]. - **Basis and Other Data**: On May 13, PX, PTA, MEG, and PF's basis were 312, 195, 125, and - 96 respectively; PX - naphtha spread was 271. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC's warehouse receipts were 81164, 11755, 2727, 1810, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 7590, 100, 140, 916, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 13, Asian PX prices soared. Platts evaluated the daily average of Asian PX to increase by 60.67 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton CFR Unv1/China. The market sentiment was boosted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China for 90 days. An East - China 1.6 - million - ton PX unit reduced its load to 60% operation, expected to last 7 - 10 days, and another large PX factory in East China reduced its load due to catalyst replacement in the previous process [3]. - **PTA Market**: On May 13, PTA futures fluctuated upward. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, mainly among traders, with more bids from polyester factories, and the spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers offered June's goods [5]. - **MEG Market**: A 360,000 - ton/year MEG unit restarted. Two MEG units with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons/year temporarily shut down, and a 1.8 - million - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol enterprise's one line started maintenance on May 12 [5]. - **Polyester Market**: The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 58% as of 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament showed high - low differentiation, with an estimated average of over 50% as of 3:30 pm. On May 12, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament had a late - day surge, with an estimated average of over 510% [6].