Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading at $3309.89 per ounce, an increase of $8.60 or 0.26% from the previous value [1] - The announcement of tariffs on 14 countries by the U.S. starting August 1 has raised concerns about the economy and inflation, impacting gold prices [1] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, boosted by non-farm payroll data, and rising U.S. Treasury yields have increased the holding costs of gold [1] - Despite long-term benefits from central bank gold purchases, there has been a short-term reduction in gold ETF holdings [1] Group 2 - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are slightly opening, with gold prices supported by the lower band, indicating initial bullish momentum [2] - Key resistance is at $3350 per ounce, while $3280 per ounce serves as critical support [2] - The MACD indicator shows a convergence of the death cross, with green bars narrowing, while the RSI indicates oversold conditions with a rebound in the 51-40 range, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2] Group 3 - In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding slightly, indicating a demand for volatility, with gold prices rebounding from the lower band [2] - The MACD shows a continuous convergence of the death cross, with narrowing green bars, and the RSI indicates a rebound in the 51-44 range, highlighting a clear demand for a bullish reversal [2] - The 1-hour chart shows an expanding Bollinger Band, with a clear short-term bullish rebound, and the MACD indicates a golden cross with increasing red bars [2] Group 4 - For bullish positions, aggressive traders can enter near the $3280 support level, while conservative traders may wait for a bounce at $3250 [4] - For bearish positions, aggressive traders can consider shorting near $3400 resistance, while conservative traders may wait for confirmation at $3450 [4] - The futures market shows varied trends, with the main contract for Shanghai gold initially declining before rebounding, and significant fluctuations in gold T+D [4]

智通财经7月9日电，美元指数DXY短线下跌10点，现报97.54。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, with expectations for a moderate appreciation in the future [3][5][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of mid-2025, the US dollar index has dropped by 10.8% since the beginning of the year, reaching its lowest point since March 2022, while the RMB has shown a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, hitting a seven-month high [1][3]. - The RMB against the US dollar has seen a cumulative increase of 298 basis points, with a rise of 0.41% in the middle rate, and over 1.8% in the onshore rate [3][5]. Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The RMB's recent strength is a result of the weakening US dollar index, stable domestic fundamentals, and flexible central bank operations, alongside increased demand for currency exchange [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated plans to introduce more financial policies related to foreign exchange, aiming to stabilize the market and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [5][6]. Future Outlook for RMB - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar index may continue to decline, which could support a moderate appreciation of the RMB [6]. - The Chinese economy's stable performance and increased cross-border capital inflows are expected to provide strong support for the RMB's exchange rate [6][8]. RMB Asset Appeal - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased due to stable economic growth in China and the resilience of its financial markets, leading to a shift of market funds away from US dollar assets [8][9]. - The RMB has become the second-largest trade financing currency globally and the third-largest payment currency, reflecting its growing international status [8][9]. Internationalization of RMB - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with significant increases in cross-border RMB settlement volumes, particularly in securities investment [9][10]. - The PBOC has engaged in bilateral currency swap agreements with various countries, further promoting the use of RMB in international trade and finance [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.423%, while the real yield also rose by 4 basis points to 2.073% [1] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.20% to 97.70, making gold priced in dollars more expensive for overseas buyers [2] - Japan and South Korea are accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to soften President Trump's stance on new tariffs effective August 1 [3] Group 2 - Despite the announcement of new tariffs, interest in gold as a safe-haven asset has decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices by over 1% during North American trading [5] - Optimism regarding trade agreements has increased market risk appetite, which has suppressed gold prices [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has triggered a "sell signal," indicating that sellers have outnumbered buyers, with gold needing to break below $3,246 per ounce for further declines [6] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold are at $3,311, $3,324, and $3,340, while support levels are at $3,277, $3,253, and $3,249 [7] - The momentum for gold remains strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [7] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. wholesale sales for May and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices testing resistance levels and showing potential for further declines due to a rebound in the US dollar index and changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of July 9, international spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, currently trading at $3,287.75 per ounce, down 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold is trading at $3,299 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which have shifted due to recent employment data and economic policies [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [7]. - The "Great Beautiful" fiscal plan signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may have short-term positive effects on the economy but could exacerbate long-term debt burdens [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing trade negotiations and tariff agreements between the US and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are contributing to market uncertainty, which may support gold prices as a hedge against currency risk [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on the economy remains a significant factor influencing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs and related funds are highlighted as accessible investment vehicles, offering low costs and diverse trading options, which may attract investors looking to hedge against economic volatility [11]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns is emphasized, suggesting that investors may consider regular investments in gold ETFs [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has significant implications for various groups, including students studying abroad, foreign trade practitioners, and investors monitoring global economic trends [1][4]. Exchange Rate Overview - As of the latest data, the central parity rate of 1 USD is 7.1506 RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 29 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a sustained appreciation trend for the RMB [3]. - The onshore market (CNY) shows a latest transaction price of 7.1692, while the offshore market (CNH) is at 7.1676, suggesting a consistent expectation of the RMB's value between domestic and foreign markets [3]. Impact of RMB Appreciation - For students and travelers, the appreciation means they can exchange less RMB for the same amount of USD, potentially saving money on expenses like tuition or travel [4]. - Conversely, for cross-border e-commerce and foreign trade businesses, the same USD revenue will convert to a lower amount in RMB, impacting profit margins over time [4]. Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation is attributed to several factors, including a weakening US dollar index, which provides room for other currencies to strengthen, and a stable recovery of the Chinese economy, enhancing confidence in RMB assets [5][6]. Strategies for Individuals and Businesses - Individuals are advised to consider staggered currency exchanges to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [7]. - Businesses engaged in foreign trade can negotiate with banks to lock in exchange rates, ensuring stable profits despite market volatility [8]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to experience small fluctuations, alternating between appreciation and depreciation, influenced by international economic conditions, US Federal Reserve policies, domestic economic fundamentals, and international capital flows [10].

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, marking a 0.98% increase from the previous month, and this is the first time since September 2024 that reserves surpassed the $33 trillion mark [4][6] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), adding 70,000 ounces in June, which is the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7][9] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to three main factors: a decline in the US dollar index, rising global asset prices, and appreciation of non-USD currencies [6][8] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% in June, reaching a three-year low, which increased the dollar value of non-USD assets held in reserves [6] - Global asset prices saw a rise, with the USD-denominated global bond index increasing by 1.0% and the S&P 500 index rising by 5.0% in June [6] - The appreciation of the euro and British pound against the dollar by 3.89% and 2.1% respectively also contributed to the increase in the dollar value of non-USD assets [6] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize reserve structure, respond to global uncertainties, and capitalize on the long-term upward trend in gold prices [7][9] - China's gold reserves are significantly lower than the world average, and increasing gold holdings can enhance the diversification and risk resistance of foreign exchange reserves [7] - The central bank's strategy reflects a strong recognition of gold's strategic value, aiming to maintain economic stability amid complex global conditions [7][9] Global Central Bank Trends - Despite the ongoing accumulation of gold, the monthly increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China has been decreasing, indicating a strategy to control purchase costs and optimize reserve structure [9] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 72% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next five years, while 73% expect to reduce their dollar reserves [10] - The current geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors are driving central banks to view gold as a strategic asset for risk mitigation [10]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Impact - The dollar index experienced its worst start to a year since 1973, with a decline of 10.8% by July 1, 2025, dropping below the 97 mark to a low of 96.36 [2] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a withdrawal of investments from U.S. assets [2][3] - The performance of the dollar has shown a clear divergence, with traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc strengthening, while the euro gained approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [4][5] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - The "exceptionalism" narrative regarding the U.S. economy has reversed since Trump's tariff policies were implemented, leading to a decline in both U.S. stocks and bonds as investors shifted their focus away from U.S. assets [3][4] - The U.S. government has faced challenges in negotiating trade agreements, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and the EU remain slow and contentious [4][5] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market volatility is expected to increase, with potential further adjustments to the dollar if the U.S. maintains a strong stance [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence and Economic Outlook - Trump's repeated criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and calls for interest rate cuts have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, impacting investor confidence in the U.S. economy [6][8] - Despite pressures, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% and job growth exceeding expectations, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [15][16] - The Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions, with Powell indicating that any decisions will depend on forthcoming economic data [7][9] Group 4: U.S. Debt Concerns - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public debt accounting for nearly 80%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt amid rising interest rates [12][13] - The recent tax reform is projected to increase the federal deficit by an additional $2.4 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating existing debt concerns [12][13] - The combination of high debt levels and rising interest costs could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, leading to a potential shift in investment flows towards other currencies like the euro [13][17]

智通财经7月8日电，美元指数涨至近两周高点97.74。 ...

Core Insights - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to a nearly two-week high of 97.74 [1] Group 1 - The increase in the Dollar Index indicates a strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies [1]