Core Insights - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy as a catalyst for coal price recovery, with expectations for stable price increases in 2026. The lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 610 RMB/ton in June 2025, while it rose to 813 RMB/ton by December 1, 2025, indicating a recovery trend [7][8] - The coal industry is expected to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" due to regulatory measures and market mechanisms, which will likely lead to a decrease in domestic coal production in 2026 [8][12] - The demand for thermal power is projected to remain resilient, supported by AI computing power driving new electricity demand, with a forecasted increase in coal consumption due to sustained thermal coal demand [9][10] Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the coal industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and capacity checks, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity and a tightening of imports [8][12] - The report notes that the coal price index fluctuated between 1100 and 1570 RMB/ton in 2025, with a significant increase in prices following the implementation of long-term contracts [7][8] - The report anticipates that the coal industry will see a shift towards high-quality development, with a focus on stable dividends and improved return on equity (ROE) for listed companies [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [12] - It also recommends companies with growth potential based on their production capacity and profitability, including Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [12]

大疆、海尔、美的等企业相继推出"反卷"措施 从年初的政府工作报告到年末到中央经济工作会议，都将"整治'内卷式'竞争"列为经济工作的重要任务。这一年自上而下的"反内卷"对普通打工人有何影 响？ 智联招聘近日发布的《2025雇佣关系趋势报告》（下称报告）的调查显示，"反内卷"已经成为职场新共识，78%职场人会因内卷跳槽，职场人对健康工作环 境与生活平衡的诉求，也在推动企业人力资源管理的转变，国内8.4%的公司已正式推行"强行下班"制度。 今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求对各单位休息休假制度执行情况的常态化监督，依法保障劳动者休息休假 权益，不得违法延长劳动者工作时间，"保障休息休假权益"成为职场反内卷的一个标志。 年初，大疆、海尔、美的等企业相继推出"反卷"措施——到点强制下班、抵制无效加班、严禁非必要会议，浙江民企也开始自觉推行4.5天工作制。 上海社科院经济研究所研究室主任詹宇波曾对第一财经表示，"内卷"和竞争激烈，是人才市场长期热议的话题。因此，减少劳动时间，增加闲暇时光，趋势 兴起就很容易获得认可，也具有内生的动力。 报告显示，这些变化表明企业开始调整考核考核和激励 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产 量合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 226.55 万吨，周环比下降 2.65 万吨，钢厂盈利率周环比持平，维持 35.93%的水平，大部分钢厂仍处亏损状态，焦炭短期需求压力仍存。整体 来看，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期驱动 焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.8 万 吨，环比增 0.8 万吨，同比降 4.1 万吨；下游焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨，减量主要集中在独立焦化厂。因 原材料焦煤价格上涨，独立焦化厂吨焦盈利走低，生产积极性下滑。整体 来看，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期 扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" aimed at regulating price competition in the platform economy, promoting healthy development, and protecting the rights of consumers and operators [3][5]. Summary by Sections Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules - The new rules consist of 7 chapters and 29 articles, prohibiting practices such as predatory pricing, price discrimination, collusion to raise prices, price fraud, and price gouging, thereby establishing clear boundaries for competition [5][6]. - The rules aim to enhance transparency, collaboration, and a healthy platform ecosystem, providing clear pricing behavior guidelines for platform operators and their internal operators [5][6]. Consumer Protection - The rules include provisions to protect consumer rights, focusing on the right to know and the right to choose, requiring operators to provide clear pricing and cancellation options for services [6][7]. - Platforms are encouraged to establish online dispute resolution mechanisms and quality assurance systems to enhance consumer trust [7]. Progress in Various Industries - The article highlights significant progress in various sectors, including solar energy, automotive, and battery industries, in combating "involution" or excessive competition [3][8]. - The solar industry has seen the establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" to address issues of unhealthy competition, with major stakeholders like Tongwei Group and GCL-Poly Energy holding significant shares [9][10]. Central Economic Work Conference - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for deeper regulation of "involution" competition, indicating a shift from comprehensive to in-depth measures [13][14]. - The conference underscored the importance of establishing a unified national market and enhancing industry self-regulation to foster a competitive market environment [13][14]. Future Directions - The article suggests that the solar industry is entering a critical phase of governance, with plans for capacity regulation and monitoring to ensure a balanced market [10][11]. - The focus will be on promoting high-quality development and addressing issues such as low-price bidding and quality control in the industry [11][12].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise with nearly 4,500 stocks closing in the green, and the trading volume reached 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 704 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown three consecutive days of gains, recovering the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with a key resistance level at approximately 3,912 points [1] - Analysts noted that the recent U.S. employment and CPI data, along with Japan's interest rate hike, have reduced external uncertainties for A-shares, shifting market focus to internal factors [1] Sector Performance - The "anti-involution" theme continues to perform well, with the Chemical ETF (516020) and the Precious Metals ETF (159876) seeing price increases of 1.75% and 1.64% respectively [1] - The Chemical ETF attracted 228 million yuan in a single day, indicating strong investor confidence in the chemical sector's future performance [1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is expected to rebound as the U.S. CPI data boosts market confidence and expectations for a Fed rate cut in January increase [1] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has seen a net inflow of 1.33 billion yuan over the past ten days, while the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (520880) has experienced nine consecutive days of net subscriptions, reaching a record high of 4.178 billion shares [1] Chemical Industry Outlook - China’s chemical industry is anticipated to see a bottoming out and gradual recovery, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics expected by 2025 [6] - The current valuation of the chemical sector is at a historical low, with the Chemical ETF (516020) trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, indicating strong long-term investment potential [6][8] AI and Technology Sector Developments - The Hong Kong AI sector is experiencing a rebound, with major companies like Tencent and Meituan making significant advancements in AI technology [11] - The AI application market is expected to thrive, with the launch of new models and applications driving demand, particularly in the light of increasing AI-related hardware needs [15][16] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on the "technology + cyclical" dual-driven strategy, highlighting opportunities in sectors such as defense, AI applications, and renewable energy [3] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is suggested as an efficient vehicle for gaining exposure to the chemical sector, given its diversified holdings in leading companies [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.698 billion yuan from its express delivery services in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.17% with a total business volume of 2.175 billion parcels and an average revenue per parcel of 2.16 yuan, up 6.40% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yunda's express delivery service revenue reached 4.698 billion yuan in November 2025, with a business volume of 2.175 billion parcels [1] - The average revenue per parcel increased to 2.16 yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.40% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to enhance its operational quality and service levels through a focus on high-quality development and technological innovation [1][2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry in China has seen its annual business volume exceed 180 billion parcels for the first time, setting a new record [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost industry profitability and rationalize pricing, contributing to a potential increase in average parcel prices [4] - The ongoing digital transformation and the implementation of a multi-layered technology strategy ("1+N+AI") are enhancing operational efficiency and service quality across the industry [2][4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yunda has established a comprehensive service network covering all provinces and major cities in China, with 71 transit centers nationwide [2] - The company is advancing its "comprehensive digitalization" strategy, focusing on business digitization and the integration of AI technologies to improve operational efficiency [2] - Yunda is actively promoting the use of unmanned vehicles and drones in various regions to enhance service delivery [2] Group 4: Seasonal Performance - During the current peak season, Yunda is leveraging advanced logistics facilities and smart technology to enhance customer experience and ensure efficient operations [3] - The company is committed to providing high-quality services during the peak season, focusing on safety, efficiency, and customer satisfaction [3] - Yunda is utilizing big data and AI for real-time analysis and resource allocation to maintain smooth operations during the busy season [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the equity market, highlighting a mixed performance with a focus on domestic demand expansion and structural differentiation in market trends [2][11][13]. Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% and the CSI 300 Index falling by 0.28% during the week of December 15-19, 2025 [2][11]. - The average daily trading volume across the market was 17,465 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - The financial and consumer sectors performed relatively well, while growth sectors lagged behind [11][13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - A significant emphasis was placed on expanding domestic demand, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's article in "Qiushi" magazine, which elevated the strategy to a national level [13]. - Continuous policy support is expected to stimulate consumption, optimize new policy implementations, and address unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [13]. - The potential introduction of national subsidy policies post-New Year is anticipated to further boost consumption [13]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.82%, with most sectors experiencing a pullback due to concerns over rising U.S. Treasury yields and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [14]. - Short-term pressures on the Hong Kong market are expected to persist, but there remains a valuation advantage for Hong Kong stocks if short-term factors dissipate [14]. Group 4: Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.09% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 16.68% since inception [4]. - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 1.02%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.56% since inception [5]. - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 1.02%, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.05% since inception [6].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View of the Report - The market continued its high - level oscillation last week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03% and the CSI 300 falling 0.28%. The value style outperformed the growth style. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its structurally differentiated market, and broad - based indices may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long term, industrial innovation changes and long - term capital inflows are still expected to support the market [3][12][13]. - Domestic policies are focused on boosting domestic demand and consumption. There may be continuous policies in the future to optimize the implementation of relevant policies, clear unreasonable restrictions in the consumption field, and release the potential of service consumption. Attention should also be paid to whether the expanded national subsidy policy will be introduced after New Year's Day to further boost consumption [5][13]. - The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure last week due to factors such as the rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it still has certain valuation advantages if short - term suppressing factors are eliminated [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The market continued high - level oscillation last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03% and the CSI 300 down 0.28%. The value style was stronger than the growth style. The financial and consumption sectors performed relatively well, while the growth sector was weak. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was 17,465 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Overseas Market**: After the concern about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was alleviated and the US non - farm payrolls report and inflation data were weaker than expected, the risk appetite of the financial market was restored, and overseas technology assets rebounded from oversold conditions. However, there are still concerns about US re - inflation, and US bond yields remained strong [12]. - **Domestic Market**: Benefiting from the elevation of domestic demand expansion to a strategic level, various ministries and official media have continuously emphasized domestic demand expansion and consumption promotion. The market has switched to cyclical sectors dominated by service consumption. Since December, there have been many market hotspots but no clear main line [12][13]. - **Domestic Demand Policy**: The core of the policy is to adhere to the strategic base point of domestic demand expansion, promote the in - depth integration of people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, and stimulate market vitality. There may be continuous policies in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the national subsidy policy will be expanded after New Year's Day [13]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.10% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.82% last week. Most sectors pulled back. The rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades suppressed the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it has certain valuation advantages in the long run [14]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19) | Last Month (2025.11.19 - 2025.12.19) | Since the Beginning of This Year (2025.01.02 - 2025.12.19) | Since Inception | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Strategy Theme: Active Stock Fund Preferred | 0.09% | 1.95% | 39.19% | 40.32% | | Investment Style: Value Stock Fund Preferred | 1.02% | 0.67% | 19.97% | 20.06% | | Investment Style: Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.11% | 0.32% | 30.61% | 27.74% | | Investment Style: Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.02% | 1.61% | 52.89% | 39.15% | | Industry Theme: Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | - 2.04% | - 2.88% | 33.86% | 15.96% | | Industry Theme: Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | - 0.33% | 11.14% | 3.98% | | Industry Theme: Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.45% | 1.21% | 45.92% | 48.21% | | Industry Theme: High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 3.24% | - 2.33% | 30.77% | 24.46% | | Industry Theme: Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | 1.68% | 2.82% | 29.40% | 20.26% | [15] - **Active Stock Fund Preferred**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness, style stability, etc., and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [16]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [18]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [20]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [22][23]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [23][27]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [27]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [32]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Construction, etc.). The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34][35].

12月22日消息，A股市场高开高走，截至收盘，沪指上涨0.69%收复3900点关口，创业板指涨超2%。受此影 响，创业板50ETF（159949）涨2.42%报1.521元，换手率6.03%，成交额16.36亿元，居同类标的ETF首位。 | 代码 | 名标 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 IOPV 溢折率 | 换手率 | | 成交金额 ▼ 5日涨跌幅 60日涨跌幅 年初至今 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159949 | 创业板50ETF | 1.521 | 2.42% 1.5222 -0.08% | 6.03% | 16.36亿 | 1.74% | 4.54% 58.27% | | | 159682 | CON 50ETF | 1.475 | 2.36% 1.4758 -0.05% | 5.97% | 3.16亿 | 1.65% | 4.61% | 58.26% | | 159681 | @50ETF | 1.491 | 2.19% 1.4931 -0.14% | 5.22% | 1.19亿 | 1.50% | 4.71 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...