油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | 原 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8080 | 8140 | -60 | -0.74% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7390 | 7434 | -44 | -0.59% | | 泉差 | Y2509 | ୧୦୦ | 706 | -16 | -2.27% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8450 | 8600 | -150 | -1.74% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7898 | 7998 | -100 | -1 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆下跌，贸易缓和情绪消退，市场交易美豆产区天气较好三限制涨幅。周三国内豆粕现货跟涨期 货，华东低价报 2850 元/吨，国内豆粕成交昨日放量，远月成交较多，开机率较高，提货较好，下游仍 在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势，不过由于前期开机延迟等，油厂库存压力相对后 移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西升贴水涨跌互现，或因销售进度偏慢，但雷亚尔升 值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰动使得总产量容易下调，美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱 动，新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易 ...

棕榈油、白糖大跌 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油大跌,因马来西亚棕榈油产量大增至历史同期高位,供应 增大压力令棕油下挫,国内棕油库存上升,需求偏弱,连棕油大幅下 跌,后市科有续跌空间。白糖亦加速下跌,受到外盘原糖大跌的拖累, 因巴西自糖压榨进度加快,产量增大,同时亚洲糖主产国产量前景较 好,压制外盘大跌,带动郑糖扩大跌幅,弱势料持续。玉米冲高回落, 期价在连续上涨至高位后,多头获利回吐令期价高位调整,但涨势尚 未改变,后市料高位波动。豆粕持续震荡上行,因进口大豆成本上升, 油厂压榨利润下滑后挺价豆粕,豆粕偏强波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到产地增产增大 压力: 1.马来西亚棕榈油总署 MPOB 发布的月度供需报告显示,马来西 亚 5 月棕油产量增长 5.05%至 177 万吨,处于历史同期接近最高位, 季节性增产效应明显。马棕榈油 5 月库存亦增 6.65%至 199 万吨,为 去年 9 月以来最高位,出口则大幅增加 25.6%至 139 万吨,同时进口 也有较大增幅,产量和进口激增抵消了出口的增长。棕榈油后续月份 产量预计逐月增加,给棕榈油 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米继续减仓上行，近月期价跟随现货上涨，近月领涨、远期合约跟涨， 坚挺，低价出货意向稍显一般。东北深加工主流收购价格与产区基本顺价，对行 上调 10-20 元/吨。前期到货的东北粮源陆续消化完毕，华北本地小麦开始收割 上市，贸易商主要开始小麦的收割。周末河南地区启动小麦最低保护价收购政策。 | 震荡 | | | 长阳线打破近期慢涨模式。现货市场方面，东北产区余粮有限，贸易商心态较为 | | | | 情也暂无明显不利影响。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏强运行，深加工企业普遍 | | | 玉米 | 周末销区市场玉米价格继续稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂无较大变化，新季小麦 | | | | 继续上市，各企业关注小麦价格较多，小麦与玉米到部分饲料厂基本同价，小麦 | | | | 替代优势较大。技术上，玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场，期价快速拉升，现货 | | | | 强势对期货的提振体现出来，近月率先领涨，近远月价差拉大。其后，远月跟随 | | | | 近月上行，在玉米和淀粉的对比 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-11 苹果套袋进入中后期，红枣长势较为正常 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7523元/吨，较前一日变动+37元/吨，幅度+0.49%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+677，较前一日变动-37；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+2077，较前一日变动-37。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场整体成交清淡，产区新季苹果套袋工作继续，库内货源交易氛围一般，产地包装发货不 快，客商多自行发货为主。西部产区客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体 惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大果及好果走货一般，部分乡镇价格小幅松动。销区市场市场走货一般，天气转热，瓜 类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论 价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 2025年6月11日 | | | | | | | 票 | | | | | | | | | 6月10日 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8140 | 8140 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7434 | 7436 | -2 | -0.03% | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 706 | 704 | 2 | 0.28% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+280 | -10 | - | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | O | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | 6月10日 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8600 | 8600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7998 | 8036 | ...

中美经贸磋商机制首次会议举行提振市场乐观情绪,豆粕期价震 荡走高,国内大豆压榨量高位,豆粕供应增加,但库存同比仍处于偏 低水平,豆粕走势偏强运行。棕榈油下挫,MPOB 月度供需报告显示 5 月马棕油产量和进口激增,抵消了出口增幅较大的影响,国内油脂 总库存亦大幅增加,给棕榈油期价带来下跌压力。玉米持续劲升,国 家启动小麦最低收购价议案,支撑小麦价格,政策持续发酵,玉米亦 受提振,加之供应偏紧,港口库存下降,玉米趁势走高,后市预计偏 强运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 一、农产品板块综述 (一)豆粕: 震荡上行 豆粕走高、棕油下挫 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约继续上涨,受到贸易乐观情绪以及外 盘走高提振: 1. 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行,全球大豆市场乐观 情绪升温,美豆期价持续上涨,带动连粕走高。国内油厂高开机率持 续,豆粕供应持续增加,豆粕库存上升,中国粮油商务网监测数据显 示,截至到第23周末,国内豆粕库存量为37万吨,连续第六周上升。 但仍低于去年同期水平。 2、豆粕主力2509 合约连续上升,期价走高逐渐远离均线系统, MACD 红柱扩大,技术偏强,策略上轻仓多单,豆粕2509合约支撑 3000, 阻 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 虽然期货盘面价格上涨，但大豆盘面榨利差，油厂进口积极性低。期货的强势与 进口成本走高，远期供应担忧有关。操作上，豆粕 91、15 正套持有，单边多头 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 思路。 | | | | 周一，BMD 棕榈油震荡运行，市场等待 MPOB 报告指引。之前一项调查显示， 尽管出口需求旺盛，但受到产量温和复苏推动，马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存预计攀 升至 201 万吨，环比上涨 7.74%。其中产量环比增长 3%至 174 万吨。原油价格偏 | | | 油脂 | 强运行，因地缘紧张加剧和美国经济数据好于预期。国内方面，油脂期价偏强运 | 震荡 | | | 行。棕榈油和豆油的涨幅超过菜籽油，蛋白粕走势强于油脂。库存方面，油脂库 | | | | 存稳中增加，大豆压榨量增加是主要原因，其次是油脂需求平淡，国内供应宽松 | | | | 预期持续。操作上，短线参与，豆油和棕榈油买 9 卖 1。 | | | | 周一，鸡蛋期货下跌，主力 2507 合约下跌后低位震荡，尾盘小幅回收，日收跌 | | | | ...

2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气正常、美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回调 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：产业仍存抵抗情绪 | 11 | | 生猪：降重初启动，等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,182 | 涨跌幅 0.89% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,166 | 涨跌幅 -0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,766 | 0.36% ...

Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the previous expectation of a production cut has weakened with the new - season fruit bagging work progressing, leading to a correction in the futures price. The demand for apples is being impacted by the increasing demand for melons and other summer fruits as the temperature rises. Although the current inventory is at a five - year low with less pressure to clear stocks, there is a risk of price decline due to potential quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] - For red dates, the main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price of red dates has been falling under multiple conditions such as the off - season, high inventory, and normal growth in the growing period, and has broken through the warehouse receipt cost of the 2024 production season. Due to over - production in 2024, there are potential risks in the new - season growth, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7486 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.85% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 714, a change of + 220 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 2114, a change of + 220 from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8910 yuan/ton, a change of + 90 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 1.02% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 610, a change of - 90 from the previous day [5] Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The new - season fruit bagging work is in progress, and the previous production cut expectation has weakened, leading to a correction in the futures price. As the temperature rises, the demand for apples is being impacted by other fruits. Currently, the trading in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory is at a low level, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] Red Dates - The red date futures price rose yesterday. The main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price has been falling in the off - season, and there are potential risks in the new - season growth due to over - production in 2024. Attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Strategy Apples - Adopt a neutral strategy. Continuously monitor the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the yield data after bagging [4] Red Dates - Adopt a neutral strategy. The current absolute price is low, and it is in the critical growth period of new - season red dates. Pay close attention to the impact of over - production in the 2024 season and weather changes on the new - season growth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate without growth interference [8]