Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of balancing between policy expectations and economic realities, with a focus on maintaining reasonable liquidity through monetary policy [2] - The market is expected to shift from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with anticipated stronger fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [2] - The "new quality productivity" and "domestic circulation" themes are expected to remain active despite the overall market maintaining a state of fluctuation [2] Group 2 - Growth style is expected to continue to outperform in the annual context, but the fourth quarter may see a stronger shift in investment styles, particularly towards undervalued sectors [3] - The strength of style changes in the fourth quarter may surpass that of valuation adjustments, influenced by the relative valuation advantages of value stocks compared to growth stocks [3] - The cyclical sectors may benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving the fundamental outlook in the coming year [3] Group 3 - Recent market price increases are driven by anticipations of a cyclical upturn in the coming year, with historical patterns indicating that certain years are associated with rising PPI [4] - The overlap of China's five-year cycle and the U.S. four-year cycle is expected to culminate in a significant year for industrial metal prices in 2026 [4] - Current cyclical investment opportunities include sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, which are seen as favorable for positioning [4] Group 4 - The market has experienced increased volatility since October, with a shift in the underlying structure of incremental capital affecting traditional aggressive timing strategies [5] - The stability of the corporate overseas environment and developments in AI are critical variables influencing market dynamics, impacting various sectors including TMT, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [5] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is focused on selecting stocks with a rising trend in ROE rather than avoiding AI narratives, which are seen as influencing market slopes rather than overall trends [5]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical transitional phase towards achieving the goal of basic socialist modernization by 2035, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][14] - The plan emphasizes high-quality development, balancing stable growth with efficiency improvements, and includes new targets for technological self-reliance and enhanced national security [6][22] Group 1: Development Goals - The plan sets multi-dimensional development goals, highlighting the importance of increasing total factor productivity (TFP) and improving the resident consumption rate [5][18] - It introduces a focus on technological self-reliance and prioritizes the well-being of citizens over ecological goals, reflecting a heightened emphasis on industrial autonomy and social welfare [6][22] Group 2: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is the central theme, aiming to enhance the global competitiveness of traditional industries while fostering strategic emerging industries such as renewable energy and low-altitude economy [6][25] - The plan stresses the integration of technology and industry, particularly in critical areas like integrated circuits and industrial machinery, to drive innovation [6][29] Group 3: Domestic and International Circulation - The plan aims to strengthen domestic circulation by boosting employment, increasing income, and enhancing public services to unlock consumption potential [2][33] - It emphasizes the construction of a unified national market to eliminate regional and industry barriers, facilitating smoother circulation of goods and services [2][35] Group 4: Common Prosperity - The plan addresses common prosperity by focusing on employment, income distribution, education, social security, and housing, aiming to expand the middle-income group and promote equitable access to public services [2][7] - It highlights the need for sustainable social security systems and improved housing security to enhance the quality of life for all citizens [7][22] Group 5: Safety and Development - The plan integrates safety and development, establishing a risk prevention system across key sectors such as supply chains, technology, energy, data, and finance [2][6] - It aims to enhance resilience by embedding risk management into economic activities and ensuring that safety requirements are reflected in market regulations [6][17] Group 6: Party Leadership - The comprehensive leadership of the Party is emphasized as a fundamental guarantee for the implementation of the plan, ensuring that political advantages are translated into governance effectiveness [2][7] - The plan calls for the establishment of a robust leadership system and the promotion of strict party governance and anti-corruption measures [2][7]

当前，世界经济增长动能不足，全球发展赤字扩大，贸易保护主义加剧。面对日趋复杂严峻的外部 环境，我国提出的一个重大战略决策就是加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新 发展格局，并在实践中不断增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性、提升国际循环质量和水平。习近平总书 记在《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的说明》中指出："外 部环境越是严峻复杂，越要加快构建新发展格局，牢牢把握发展主动权。当前和今后一个时期，要坚持 做强国内大循环，加快形成强大国内经济循环体系，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定 性。"加快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化，特别 是基于我国比较优势变化，审时度势作出的重大决策，是事关全局的系统性、深层次变革，是立足当 前、着眼长远的战略谋划，需从全局和战略的高度准确把握加快构建新发展格局的战略构想，深刻理解 其重要意义，不断探索其实践路径。 抢抓机遇应对挑战的战略选择 2020年4月，习近平总书记在十九届中央财经委员会第七次会议上阐述对国家中长期经济社会发展 战略若干重大问题的深入思考时，首次提出"构建以国内大循 ...

当前，世界经济增长动能不足，全球发展赤字扩大，贸易保护主义加剧。面对日趋复杂严峻的外部环 境，我国提出的一个重大战略决策就是加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发 展格局，并在实践中不断增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性、提升国际循环质量和水平。习近平总书记 在《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的说明》中指出："外部 环境越是严峻复杂，越要加快构建新发展格局，牢牢把握发展主动权。当前和今后一个时期，要坚持做 强国内大循环，加快形成强大国内经济循环体系，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性。"加 快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化，特别是基于我 国比较优势变化，审时度势作出的重大决策，是事关全局的系统性、深层次变革，是立足当前、着眼长 远的战略谋划，需从全局和战略的高度准确把握加快构建新发展格局的战略构想，深刻理解其重要意 义，不断探索其实践路径。 具备坚实基础和诸多优势 "十四五"时期，构建新发展格局扎实推进。一方面，国内大循环主体地位巩固，内生动力日益强劲。 2021年至2024年，内需对经济增长的平均贡献率为86. ...

Group 1 - The current demand for liquor is at a historical low, with limited downside risks, supported by a relatively loose policy environment that lays the foundation for consumption recovery [1] - More supportive policies are expected to be introduced, aiding in the gradual stabilization and recovery of liquor demand, which may see a slow upward trend in the future [1] - Short-term demand is expected to be rigid, particularly in banquet scenarios, due to a low base in the same period, while mid-term policy stimuli may stabilize high-end liquor demand [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry's performance is anticipated to show a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery in the second and third quarters, supported by a low base [1] - In the current industry cycle bottom, smaller enterprises are accelerating their exit, while leading companies are expected to enhance their market share due to superior organizational management and strong risk resistance capabilities [1] - The industry currently exhibits significant valuation advantages, with leading liquor companies possessing medium to long-term investment value [1] Group 3 - The policy framework is increasingly focused on reinforcing the "domestic circulation" strategy, utilizing targeted measures such as consumption subsidies and tax incentives to promote domestic demand structure upgrades [1] - Current policies emphasize the connection between the "external demand easing period" and the "internal demand cultivation period," allowing for rapid policy activation to counter external impacts if U.S. tariff policies fluctuate [1] - This combination of "short-term relief and mid-term transformation" policies signifies that the country is accelerating the construction of a more resilient economic development system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is a significant step towards improving public health and addressing the issue of insufficient effective market demand in China [1][2][5]. Group 1: HPV Vaccine Inclusion - The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program starting November 10, 2025, providing free vaccinations for girls aged 13 and above [1]. - This marks the first new vaccine added to the national immunization program since 2007 and expands the target demographic from children under 6 to adolescents [1][2]. - The vaccine is a bivalent type targeting high-risk HPV types 16 and 18, with a planned procurement of 15.4465 million doses at a unit price of approximately 27.5 yuan [2]. Group 2: Public Health and Economic Impact - The HPV vaccination initiative is expected to significantly reduce healthcare costs for individuals and society, improving the asset-liability structure for families and the nation [3]. - By providing preventive healthcare services, the program aims to lower health risks for individuals and the broader community, addressing the issue of poverty caused by illness [3]. - The initiative is seen as a proactive fiscal policy that invests in public health, which is crucial for enhancing overall economic productivity and addressing the current lack of effective demand in the market [2][3][4]. Group 3: Addressing Market Demand Issues - The current economic challenge in China is characterized by insufficient effective demand, primarily due to a lack of security in social welfare systems, leading to increased personal savings [4]. - The HPV vaccination program is viewed as a practical measure to fill gaps in social security and healthcare, ultimately helping to convert excess savings into effective purchasing power [4][5]. - The government is expected to focus fiscal resources on public welfare, enhancing health and safety for citizens, which will help alleviate issues related to insufficient domestic demand [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of consumption as a key driver for economic growth in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, contributing approximately 60% to economic growth annually [1][2] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on building a consumption-driven growth mechanism, addressing policy barriers that inhibit consumption, and enhancing service consumption [2] - The article highlights that China's contribution to global economic growth remains around 30% annually, showcasing its role as a stable and reliable source of economic momentum [1][2] Group 2 - The article notes that China's total retail sales increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, and is expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan by 2025 [1] - The "Revitalising Consumption" forum will discuss critical topics such as the impact of technology on economic policy and the development of service consumption as a new wave in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective policies and projects to stimulate consumption and investment [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Demand as Economic Driver - Domestic demand has become the main driving force and stabilizing anchor for economic growth, contributing an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, with final consumption and capital formation contributing 55% and 38.1% respectively [2]. - The structure of consumption and investment is continuously upgrading, with the share of service consumption in per capita expenditure rising from 39.7% in 2013 to 46.1% in 2024, and online retail sales of physical goods increasing from 10.8% in 2015 to 26.8% in 2024 [2]. Group 2: New Requirements for Expanding Domestic Demand - The 14th Five-Year Plan has provided effective experiences in expanding domestic demand, combining it with improving supply advantages and deepening reforms [4]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, requiring a focus on expanding domestic demand to enhance the internal circulation's dynamism and reliability [4][5]. Group 3: Key Strategies for Expanding Domestic Demand - Four key strategies are outlined for the 15th Five-Year Plan: 1. Boosting resident consumption by optimizing the environment and reducing restrictions [8]. 2. Actively expanding effective investment by optimizing investment structure and improving investment efficiency [9]. 3. Implementing major landmark engineering projects in strategic areas such as urban renewal and new energy systems [10]. 4. Deepening the construction of a unified national market by eliminating barriers and promoting the smooth flow of goods and factors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The current focus of China's economic development is to boost consumption, creating a model driven by domestic demand and endogenous growth, with "investment in people" being crucial for enhancing consumer capacity, confidence, and expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in People - "Investment in people" is essential for addressing uncertainties and establishing new development advantages, serving as a foundation for stable economic growth over the next decade [4]. - Enhancing public services and social security through "investment in people" can fundamentally resolve issues of insufficient consumer willingness and weakened confidence, unlocking the consumption potential of over 1.4 billion people [4][5]. - The combination of "China manufacturing" and "China consumption" is vital for a strong domestic market, with high-quality development requiring both a modern industrial system and a service-oriented consumption system [4]. Group 2: Economic Projections - If China's final consumption reaches the same global share as its manufacturing, it could create an additional consumption market of no less than $10 trillion, positioning consumption as a key driver of economic growth over the next decade [5]. - In 2023, China's economic output accounted for approximately 17% of the global total, with projections indicating that by 2024, its share in global manufacturing will rise to 28% [4]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Investment - "Investment in people" should concentrate on key areas that enhance human capital and ensure social equity, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, elderly care, and community development, which are closely linked to improving quality of life [6]. - Recommendations include reforming the fiscal system to prioritize effective investment in education, healthcare, and social security, while removing barriers to labor and talent mobility across regions and ownership types [6]. - The role of state-owned capital should be emphasized as a strategic leader and resource provider in "investment in people," facilitating broader societal benefits from capital appreciation [6].

内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚 在近日出版的《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉辅导读本》中，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁发表题为《坚持扩大内需 这个战略基点》的署名文章，详细分析了"十五五"时期扩大内需面临的新形势新要求，提出将全面落实"十五五"规划建议中提出的扩大内需各项决策部 署，包括大力提振居民消费、积极扩大有效投资、实施一批重大标志性工程项目、纵深推进全国统一大市场建设。 郑栅洁指出，党的十八大以来，我国不断提升国内供给质量水平，持续释放消费和投资需求，内需对经济发展的支撑作用明显增强，已成为拉动经济增长的主动力 和稳定锚。 数据显示，2013—2024年我国经济保持了年均6.1%的增长，内需对经济增长的平均贡献率达到93.1%，其中最终消费支出和资本形成总额的平均贡献率分别为55% 和38.1%，消费的基础作用和投资的关键作用进一步发挥。 同时，消费结构和投资结构持续升级，服务性消费占居民人均消费支出的比重从2013年的39.7%提高到2024年的46.1%；消费新业态新模式加速发展，实物商品网上 零售额占社会消费品零售总额的比重从2015年的10.8%提高到2024年 ...