首席联合电话会 - 周期专场 20250618 摘要 房地产市场呈现优质供给驱动销售的特点，整体销售量受优质供给影响 显著。尽管房企促销手段多样，但难以有效提升非优质产品的销售，市 场企稳回升时间尚不明确。 短期内，房地产板块存在 7 月份潜在博弈机会，预计三季度或有房地产 政策出台，并可能与其他金融政策配合。推荐关注绿城中国、越秀地产、 建发和滨江等估值偏低的优质标的。 2025 年 5 月基建投资增速放缓，财政支出对基建支持有限，专项债发 行进度滞后但全年额度预计用完，特别国债开始发行。下半年专项债应 用将带来工作量提升。 顺周期标的如鸿路钢构、金工、中国巨石、雨虹防水和三棵树估值已达 安全水平，可左侧布局。央企如中国建筑、隧道股份、四川路桥及水泥 企业塔牌集团、海螺水泥、华新水泥可作为配置选择。 有色金属板块中，贵金属方面长期看好黄金，短期宏观风险或致金价震 荡，关注紫金矿业、湖南黄金及山东黄金。工业金属方面，铜铝价格震 荡，关注五矿资源及宏发股份的扩产速度。 Q&A 房地产市场的当前状况如何？未来的投资机会在哪里？ 从基本面来看，房地产市场仍然由供给驱动。我们在重庆、成都、深圳和广州 等城市的调研显示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

进入6月以来，螺纹钢市场逐步进入传统意义上的季节性需求淡季。回顾自2021年以来螺纹钢期货价格 在6月和7月的走势，可以发现需求淡季的行情未必平淡。2021年和2023年，螺纹钢期货价格在6月和7月 均大幅上涨，而在2022年和2024年则大幅下跌。今年6月和7月，螺纹钢期货价格怎么走？笔者从基本面 角度对目前的行情进行分析梳理，供投资者参考。 基建投资维持高位 短流程钢厂持续复产，使螺纹钢供应压力依然较大。目前螺纹钢周产量为219万吨，环比下降7万吨，同 比下降15万吨。从钢厂生产计划来看，6月钢厂检修减产力度依然较弱，螺纹钢供应大概率会维持在高 位水平。 去库速度放缓 随着下游需求淡季到来，螺纹钢需求开始下滑，去库速度随之放缓。上海钢联调研数据显示，5月螺纹 钢总库存为571万吨，环比下降130万吨，同比下降205万吨。随着下游需求转弱，预计6月螺纹钢去库速 度将进一步放缓，库存由降转增的概率显著增加。 综合来看，随着下游需求淡季到来，短期螺纹钢供需压力逐步增加。另一方面，随着一揽子宏观政策加 速落地，基建投资有望维持在较高水平，中期螺纹钢需求有望回升。在上述因素的共同作用之下，6月 螺纹钢期货价格预计先 ...

"背离"的高频数据 5月以来，新增地方政府专项债券发行规模超过4400亿元，创下年内新高。当月建筑业商务活动指数为 51%，继续保持扩张态势。但另一方面，与基建投资相关的螺纹钢表观需求、水泥发运率、石油沥青装 置开工率等高频数据在5月有所走弱。Wind数据显示，5月最后一周螺纹钢表观需求、水泥发运率、石 油沥青装置开工率分别为248.91万吨、41.25%、27.7%，均低于去年同期。 近年来，螺纹钢等部分建筑业高频指标受房地产开发投资下滑影响较大。袁闯指出，今年前5个月螺纹 钢表观需求的周平均值较2024年同期下滑5.56%。今年以来房地产新开工面积、施工面积下滑对螺纹钢 的表观需求有较大拖累作用，并抵消了基建需求的带动作用。 不同基建项目与高频指标相关性也有所不同。比如，今年前4个月道路运输业固定资产投资同比下降 0.9%，与之高度相关的石油沥青装置开工率表现偏弱。今年以来，国家能源局指导供电企业持续加强 电力基础设施建设。据民生证券研报分析，电力基建项目与水泥磨机开工率、沥青装置开工率等指标关 系较弱。当电力基建项目带动基建投资走高时，相应指标可能不会同步反应。 偏低的建筑工地资金到位率 资金到位情况往 ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]

建筑装饰 2025 年 06 月 08 日 三峡水运新通道开工，关注大型水利工程事件催化 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250603-20250606） 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.25%，沪深 300 指数+0.88%，相对收益为+0.37pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 基建国企（+3.22%）、家装（+2.85%）、专业工程（+2.34%），对应 行业内三个公司：重庆建工（+26.12%）、名雕股份（+7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant improvement in the nuclear power industry, with the State Council approving five nuclear power projects and ten units in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of approving ten or more units annually [1] - From January to April 2025, the completed investment in nuclear power reached 36.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.64%, significantly outpacing the 1.6% growth in power source investment, indicating a new boom cycle in nuclear power construction [1] - The third-generation nuclear power units are expected to enter a peak construction phase, with modular construction technology showing promising prospects for shortening construction periods and improving efficiency [1] Group 2 - In the construction and decoration sector, the cement shipment rate has continuously rebounded to 47.8%, reflecting an acceleration in physical construction work [1] - The article suggests focusing on investment opportunities in key industries such as infrastructure in central and western regions, nuclear power, and coal chemical industries, while also monitoring improvements in orders from central state-owned enterprises and the subsequent realization of physical work [1] - The Infrastructure ETF (code: 159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (code: 930608), which selects listed companies involved in infrastructure construction from the A-share market, covering industries such as construction, building materials, and engineering machinery [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The correlation between regional economic conditions and bank valuations is increasing, with banks focusing on serving the local real economy [5] - Shandong's strategic position is highlighted by national-level initiatives such as the new and old kinetic energy conversion pilot zone, driving strong infrastructure and industrial momentum [5] - The dual task of upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors in Shandong is expected to sustain strong financial demand, with projected credit growth of 8%-11% in 2025 [5] - The regional risk situation is manageable, with city investment risks concentrated in specific counties and a significant improvement in the credit environment [5] - Recommended focus on quality banks within the province, such as Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank, which are maintaining high credit growth and improving market share [5] Summary by Sections Economic Dynamics - The "Seven Networks" plan establishes long-term infrastructure momentum, driving traditional and new infrastructure financial demand [5][18] - Shandong's economic structure is more traditional compared to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with a strong demand for green finance and technological upgrades [5][30] - The province's credit growth is expected to remain stable, with a 9.7% growth rate in Q1 2025, second only to Sichuan and Jiangsu among major provinces [5][15] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure loan growth in Shandong is projected to surpass that of Sichuan and Jiangsu by 2024, with significant investment targets set for 2025 [23][26] - The government aims for 3,900 key projects to be operational by 2025, exceeding the 2,600 projects planned for 2024 [26] Industry Transformation - Shandong is the only national-level pilot zone for new and old kinetic energy conversion, fostering both traditional upgrades and emerging economic demands [30][32] - The province's industrial structure is gradually optimizing, with traditional industries still dominant but new sectors gaining traction [5][30] Regional Banking Landscape - Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank are highlighted for their robust credit growth and improving market share, with a focus on the manufacturing and retail sectors [6][11] - The asset quality of regional banks is stable, with a decreasing trend in non-performing loans [6][11]

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant "front-loading" of fiscal debt financing and expenditure structure, which has stabilized economic performance in the first half of the year [1][2][4] - From January to April 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy [2][8] - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds, with net financing of 4.8 trillion yuan from January to April, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][21] Group 2 - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32] - The issuance of treasury bonds has accelerated, with 42.7% of the budget target achieved by May 24, 2025, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024 [3][21] - The government is expected to maintain high levels of net financing through the third quarter, with projections of 2.3 trillion yuan in the second quarter and 3.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter [4][35] Group 3 - The government may introduce incremental policies to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, especially given uncertainties in economic recovery in the second half of the year [5][37] - Policy tools such as budgetary and non-budgetary measures will be utilized to stabilize economic fluctuations, with a focus on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment as key areas for fiscal support [6][50] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by reducing burdens and increasing income, with significant potential for recovery in service consumption, which currently stands at only 87.7% of historical trends [50][51]

2025.05. 30 本文字数：2119，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ：基建投资不仅是当期固投的重要实现途径，也为未来经济增长打下基础。 作者 | 第一财经 何涛 本周二（5月27日），备受深圳人期待的春风隧道主线正式通车。深圳市市长覃伟中专程前去调研， 并强调要积极扩大有效投资，大力推进"两重"建设，助力经济高质量发展。 投资、消费、出口是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"。今年以来，在外贸挑战陡然增大的情况下，多个省 市通过加大投资力度，有效对冲经济下行的压力。其中，基础设施建设成为各地投资的重点。 第一财经记者注意到，截至5月30日，全国31个省份(不含港澳台)均已公布今年前4个月固定资产投资 情况，其中28个省份取得同比正增长，7个省份的增速达双位数。内蒙古、新疆、西藏、宁夏、吉 林、黑龙江等西部和东北部省份表现尤其亮眼，北京则以21.2%的同比增速拔得头筹。 有21个省份公布了基础设施投资情况，其中16个省份的同比增速达双位数，占到已公布省份的七成 以上。基建投资高速增长的省份分布较为均匀，东、中、西部和东北地区都有。增速排名靠前的青 海、河北、内蒙古、海南、福建、北京、天津，同比增速分别达43.8%、37 ...