每经编辑｜陈柯名 杜宇 12月3日，据工商银行APP显示，该行正在发售的2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单，起步门槛标注为"100万元起存"，而年利率仅为1.55%。而最新的工行 三年期定存产品的年利率，标注为"年利率最高可至1.55%"，而定存的起步门槛仅为50元。 | | 存入大额存单 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.55% | 3年 100万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100436) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.55% | 3年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第三期3年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100336) -可转让 | | | 1.20% | 1年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第六期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100612) -商户 | | | 1.20% | 1年 50万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第五期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100512) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.20% ...

1万元起存 据了解，当前市场上各家银行大额存单起步门槛基本为20万元。 12月3日，据工商银行APP显示，该行正在发售的2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单，起步门槛标注 为"100万元起存"，而年利率仅为1.55%。而最新的工行三年期定存产品的年利率，标注为"年利率最高 可至1.55%"，而定存的起步门槛仅为50元。 | | 存入大额存单 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.55% | 3年 100万元起存 | | | 年利塞 | 2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100436) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.55% | 3年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第三期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100336) -可转让 | | | 1.20% | 1年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第六期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100612) -商户 | | | 1.20% | 1年 50万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第五期1年期个人大额存单 | > | | | (2025100512 ...

简单聊一下对于债券类投资而言，之前的股债跷跷板效应对资金的影响，以及大家比较担忧的存款搬家事件会不会削弱或压制银行配置债券的力量。首先 看居民存款和非银金融存款这两个指标的走势：一个反映大家的存款情况，另一个能在一定程度上体现理财或股市资金的流向，两者呈现此消彼长的关 系，从数据上能清晰看出资金的流动趋势。 再从债券投资最主要的参与者——银行的配债需求来看，近年来贷款需求不高，银行放贷难度加大，导致存款类金融机构的贷款同比增速开始低于存款增 速。这意味着银行吸收了大量存款却无法全部通过放贷释放，必须为这笔资金寻找其他出路，因此对债券的配置需求具有较强刚性，大家无需担忧债券类 资产投资资金总量收缩的问题。 在此背景下，十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显。十年国债ETF（511260）是唯一跟踪上证十年期国债指数的产品，持仓透明无风格漂移，历史上每 年均实现正收益，具备低波动、稳健收益特征，且支持日内回转交易、质押加杠杆等功能，综合费率仅0.2%，操作便捷、成本优势显著。结合年底债券 配置的历史规律与明年宽松政策预期，十年国债ETF（511260）是震荡市中平衡组合风险、把握债市机会的优选工具，当前具备较 ...

12月3日，据工商银行APP显示，该行正在发售的2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单，起步门槛标注为"100万元起存"，而年利率仅为1.55%。而最新的工行三 年期定存产品的年利率，标注为"年利率最高可至1.55%"，而定存的起步门槛仅为50元。 | | 存入大额存单 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.55% | 3年 100万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100436) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.55% | 3年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第三期3年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100336) -可转让 | | | 1.20% | 1年 20万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第六期1年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100612) -商户 | | | 1.20% | 1年 50万元起存 | | | 年利率 | 2025年第五期1年期个人大额存单 | | | | (2025100512) -高端(可转让) | | | 1.20% | 2年 20万元起存 | | | ...

日前，连续两年位居"A股农商行薪酬榜首"的青岛农商行董事长王锡峰正式到龄退休，为其近三年的掌舵生涯画上句号。 这位老将的谢幕，在引发市场对薪酬机制的讨论同时，亦将任期内青农商行的表现推至焦点。 2022年王锡峰接手之初，青农商行正深陷十年罕见的业绩低谷，不仅利润同比下滑超二成，更因房地产贷款管理不审慎等行为被处以超7000万元巨额罚单。 历经三年"逆势"突围，该行利润已进入稳定上升通道，在营收下滑4.92%的2025年前三季度，仍实现3.57%的增长，表现出一定盈利韧性。 然而增长光环之下，忧患始终如影随形： 2025年上半年，房地产业不良率已突破20%，信贷扩张近乎陷入停滞；同区域的青岛银行、齐鲁银行的高歌猛进，更对青农商行的市场份额形成持续挤压。 面对内部资产质量承压、外部竞争加剧的双重挑战，新管理层必须在风险化解、规模增长与区域竞争的"夹缝中"，寻求艰难的再平衡。 资产负债错配 拆分来看，青农商行业务结构传统，前三季度，利息、中收、投资的贡献率分别为68.63%、8.73%、19.61%，较上年同期增长2.06%、2.51%、32.59%； 其中，作为主营业务的信贷增长乏力，中收历经多年的轻资产转型仍无 ...

Market Performance Review - In November, all major stock indices experienced declines, with the adjustment range expanding compared to the previous month. As of November 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.23% [4][13] - The market faced external disturbances, leading to increased downward pressure, particularly after the Federal Reserve hinted at no interest rate cuts in December and concerns over valuation bubbles in the overseas AI industry [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests a cautious approach, waiting for triggers for a spring market rally. It notes that the current market phase is characterized by a lack of positive guidance, making it difficult for the market to transition smoothly from the first phase of the bull market to the second [5][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy direction in determining market style, recommending a focus on commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors for December, given recent policy developments and upcoming rocket launches [6][32] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed resilience, with the top-performing industries in November being comprehensive (4.07%), banking (2.99%), and textile and apparel (2.95%). In contrast, technology and growth sectors like computers and automobiles faced significant declines [17][19] - The report highlights a shift towards defensive strategies, as previously strong sectors like technology continue to adjust while traditional defensive sectors outperform [17][19] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report indicates a slight recovery in personal investor sentiment, with the sentiment index reaching 2.24% as of November 28, although overall sentiment declined throughout November [25][27] - Financing sentiment has also decreased, with net outflows observed in financing accounts, indicating a retreat of high-risk capital from the market [27][28]

10月份内，担纲整体增长"主力"的是货币基金，在收益率持续走低的背景下单月规模依旧上涨3855.36 亿元；此外QDII基金无论是净值还是规模均有显著增长；而在权益市场震荡的背景下，权益基金整体 规模有所下滑，债基因被多类机构减持，单月规模降幅超过1000亿元。 权益基金、债基规模略降 10月内，各大指数在达到阶段性高位后开始震荡，沪指单月上涨1.85%，深证成指跌约1.1%，在这一背 景下，权益型基金总体规模有所下滑。 据统计，截至10月底，股票基金总规模为5.93万亿元，与9月底相比减少289.24亿元；混合基金的总规模 为4.26万亿元，环比减少548.12亿元，二者降幅分别为0.49%和1.27%。 但从份额来看，股票型基金份额增加了656.85亿份，环比增加1.79%，而混合基金份额减少127.46亿 份，环比降0.44%。 受股债"跷跷板"等多重因素影响，近期债基表现持续不振，而10月份债基也有明显降幅。截至10月底， 债券基金总规模为7.10万亿元，与9月底相比下降1043.22亿元，环比降幅1.45%；债券基金总份额为5.63 万亿份，与9月底相比下降1338.91亿份，环比降幅2.32%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "migration of residents' deposits" is gaining traction, with some analysts suggesting it could boost the stock market, although data indicates that the trend is more towards insurance products rather than direct stock investments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Discussion - The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated around 3900 points since mid-November, with increasing discussions about the potential migration of residents' deposits into the stock market [1]. - Notable private equity founder Li has claimed that the migration of residents' deposits could stimulate the stock market, raising market interest [1]. - However, banks report no significant decrease in residents' deposits, contradicting the notion of a widespread "deposit migration" [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Recent data shows a notable increase in fund sales at banks, with a reported 89% growth in fund sales compared to the same period last year [3]. - Index-linked fixed income products are currently the most popular among investors, while direct investments in sectors like liquor and healthcare are less favored [3]. - Insurance products, particularly dividend and savings insurance, have seen substantial sales growth, with some banks reporting a doubling in sales compared to last year [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth, with banks noting a 13% increase in insurance sales in Q3 compared to Q2 [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current investment behavior of high-net-worth individuals leans towards conservative options like insurance rather than direct stock market investments [7]. - Projections indicate that the scale of bank wealth management products could grow by at least 10% by 2026, reaching approximately 38 trillion yuan [8].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant drop in RMB deposits in July 2023, with a total decrease of 1.12 trillion yuan, marking a rare monthly decline compared to previous years [2] - The decline in deposits is attributed to various factors, including seasonal influences, reduced loan demand, and a shift in residents' financial behavior towards early mortgage repayments [4][6] - The overall deposit growth for the first seven months of 2023 was 18.98 trillion yuan, but the sharp drop in July affected the growth rate [2][6] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits decreased by 809.3 billion yuan, while corporate deposits fell by 1.53 trillion yuan, with fiscal deposits increasing by 907.8 billion yuan [2] - The decline in deposits is linked to a cooling demand for loans, as evidenced by a 200.7 billion yuan drop in household loans [2][4] - Seasonal factors, such as banks' assessment pressures at the end of the quarter, contributed to the short-term movement of funds [2][6] Group 2: Early Mortgage Repayment - Early mortgage repayments have become a significant driver of fund outflow, with residents opting to pay off loans to save on interest costs [4] - The average interest saved by paying off a 1 million yuan loan early can reach up to 73 million yuan [4] - The trend of early repayments is expected to moderate in the second half of 2023 as mortgage rates decrease [6] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The low interest rates have led to a shift in funds from deposits to wealth management products and the stock market, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [6] - The wealth management market is projected to grow from 25.34 trillion yuan in June 2023 to 30.67 trillion yuan by mid-2025, with an average annualized return of 3.39% [8] - Despite the growth in wealth management, there are concerns about risks associated with these products, prompting residents to be cautious in their investments [8] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Economic Impact - Consumer spending remains weak, with retail sales in July increasing by only 2.5%, below expectations [4] - The savings rate has climbed to 35%, indicating a preference for saving over spending, which could have a dampening effect on economic growth [4][10] - The overall economic outlook suggests a need for policies to stimulate consumption and investment, as the GDP growth rate is projected to be around 5% [12][14]

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong financial nation and the new historical mission for the wealth management industry, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Industry Dynamics - Wealth management serves as a crucial link between the funding and asset sides, playing a vital role in providing financial services to the real economy and achieving inclusive finance [2] - The rapid growth of household wealth in China is accompanied by a significant internal structural adjustment, notably the trend of "deposit migration" from traditional bank savings to wealth management products, funds, and capital markets [4] - The current phase of deposit migration is seen as a necessary outcome of optimizing asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, with the trend expected to continue as market activity increases [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Deposit Migration - The fundamental change in the interest rate environment is identified as the core driver of the deposit migration trend, with current bank deposit rates significantly lower than those from 2019 to 2021 [6] - The total amount of deposits in China is approximately 1.5 times the total market capitalization of A-shares, indicating substantial potential for capital market inflows [6] Group 3: Balancing Client Expectations - Clients often express a desire for both high returns and low volatility, creating a mismatch with financial realities, which poses challenges for asset management institutions [7] - Solutions to this challenge include setting reasonable expectations and optimizing strategies, such as designing appropriate product structures to smooth short-term volatility [7] Group 4: Investor Education and Engagement - The concept of "investor companionship" is gaining traction, focusing on helping clients understand products and manage risks effectively, especially during market fluctuations [9] - Continuous and detailed investor engagement is crucial for smoothing client emotions and achieving long-term value [9] Group 5: Future Competitiveness in Wealth Management - The competition in the wealth management industry is shifting from scale expansion to a deep competition in core capabilities, including global asset allocation, digital operations, and professional talent [10] - Asset management institutions are encouraged to enhance their strategies and products to meet the growing demand for cross-border investments [10] Group 6: Long-term Value Creation - Key directions for the future include establishing a client-centered investment management system, improving service quality, and leveraging technology for business development [11] - The industry is entering a new growth era, where focusing on service, professional capabilities, and genuine client engagement will be essential for navigating challenges and creating long-term value [11]