2026年以来，超50万亿元"天量存款"即将到期的消息引发热议，人们关注这些存款到期后，钱会流向哪里？ 银行业理财登记托管中心近期发布的《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》显示，截至2025年末，银行理财市场存续规模33.29万亿元，较年初增长 11.15%，全年累计新发理财产品3.34万只，募集资金76.33万亿元；理财产品通过投资债券、非标准化债权类资产、权益类资产等，支持实体经济资金规模 约21万亿元；持有理财产品的投资者数量达1.43亿个，较年初增长14.37%；全年为投资者创造收益7303亿元。2025年，理财产品平均收益率为1.98%。 报告还显示，2025年，理财投资者数量维持增长态势。截至2025年末，持有理财产品的投资者数量达1.43亿个，较年初增长14.37%。其中，个人投资者数量 较年初新增1769万个，机构投资者数量较年初新增31万个。从结构上看，截至2025年末，理财市场仍以个人投资者为主，数量为1.41亿个，占比98.64%；机 构投资者数量为194万个，占比1.36%。 2026年以来，超50万亿元"天量存款"即将到期的消息引发热议，人们关注这些存款到期后，钱会流向哪里？ ...

Core Insights - A significant amount of deposits is maturing, with estimates suggesting that the nationwide maturing fixed deposits could reach 50 trillion yuan this year, prompting a shift in investment strategies among residents [2][3] Group 1: Deposit Trends and Investment Shifts - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates has led to a reassessment of investment options, with many conservative investors opting to renew deposits or shift towards insurance products, while risk-tolerant investors are increasingly exploring funds and bank wealth management products [2][3] - The People's Bank of China has indicated that a large volume of long-term deposits will mature by 2026, which will compel depositors to consider alternatives like bank wealth management and funds due to lower interest rates [3][4] Group 2: Performance of Financial Products - In 2025, the capital market is expected to show an upward trend, with median returns for equity and mixed funds reaching 26.42% and 22.92% respectively, while bank wealth management products are projected to yield around 2% [4] - Despite the decline in returns from wealth management products due to bond market fluctuations, they still offer a better yield compared to traditional deposits [4] Group 3: Customer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The transition of funds from deposits to investment products is gradual, with increased interest in funds noted since last year, particularly during the year-end and early-year periods when many customers receive bonuses or have maturing funds [5][6] - Many ordinary depositors remain unaware of the implications of interest rate cuts, often choosing to reinvest in fixed deposits rather than exploring other investment avenues [6] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Financial advisors are increasingly recommending diversified investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [8][10] - Investment firms are adapting their product offerings to meet the evolving needs of clients, focusing on multi-strategy and multi-asset solutions to enhance returns while managing risk [8][9]

在资本市场，真金白银的流向，是最具穿透力的市场语言。 随着公募基金2025年四季报全部披露完毕，其最新的持仓图谱清晰地展现在市场面前。仓位变动的背 后，揭示了在复杂宏观环境下，大资金对确定性机会的共识性追逐。 可以看到，市场的核心主线正在急剧收缩与凝聚，从过去数年的多线开花转向围绕以AI算力为核心 的、少数高景气赛道的深度博弈。 特别值得注意的是，在这一聚焦过程中，如中国平安（601318.SH/2318.HK）等兼具低估值安全边际、 高股息现金流与宏观景气修复预期的资产，成为资金重点加码的方向。 | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | Q4增持市值(亿元) | Q4持股市值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601318.SH | 中国平安 | 68 | 168 | | 2 | 002384.5Z | 东山精密 | 67 | 244 | | 3 | 300390.5Z | 天华新霞 | 37 | 38 | | 4 | 000807.SZ | 坚据股份 | 35 | ਟੇ ਕੇ | | 5 | 300751.SZ | 迈为股份 | 34 | 38 | | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 雪涛宏观笔记 理财、货基、保险、基金，谁能够在"存款搬家"中分得一杯羹？ 事实二："存款搬家"从2024年开始成为话题，对应的是居民超额配置存款意愿下降。 随着存款利率下行，从2024年开始，居民配置存款的意愿回落。2024年、2025年居民新增定期存款均在 12万亿左右。按照估算，居民新增存款占新增金融资产的比重在68%左右，显著低于2022、2023年的 89%、79%。这意味着2021年以来的居民超额存款行为已经接近尾声。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年，在存款利率大幅下行的背景下，随着此前高息的三、五年期定期存款到期，居民部门"存款搬 家"再度成为市场的关注焦点。在分析"存款搬家"时，我们需要先说清楚以下几点事实。 事实一：当前市场讨论的"存款搬家"话题，恰好对应的是三年前市场讨论的"超额储蓄"问题。 当时受地产下行、消费意愿回落等因素影响，居民部门开始大幅增配定期存款。2022年新增住户存款 17.8万亿，其中定期存款13.7万亿。2023年虽然新增住户存款下滑至16.6万亿，但定期存款新增16万 亿，占新增住户 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the expiration of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the potential shifts in asset allocation among residents [3][41]. Group 1: Background and Context - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the "excess savings" issue discussed three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and declining consumer sentiment. In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion yuan, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion yuan. In 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion yuan, but fixed-term deposits still made up 96% of this amount [4][41]. - The formation of excess savings from 2022 to 2023 can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets where residents redeemed wealth management products in favor of deposits [4][9]. Group 2: Future Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate funds to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion yuan for both 2024 and 2025. The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [9][10]. - By 2026, the maturity of fixed-term deposits for residents is estimated to be around 70 trillion yuan, with a peak in the first quarter. The total maturity of fixed-term deposits is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [16][17]. Group 3: Deposit Renewal Rates - The renewal rate for deposits is approximately 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be reinvested rather than withdrawn from the banking system. The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to drop to around 88% in 2024 [20][21]. - If the renewal rate decreases to 80%, the potential outflow of deposits could be around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining a 90% renewal rate would result in an outflow of approximately 7 trillion yuan [21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The primary destinations for migrating deposits are low-risk assets, such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions. The majority of residents are risk-averse, with 96% of their financial assets allocated to low-risk and no-risk assets [23][24]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, wealth management products by 2.8 trillion yuan, and insurance by 4.1 trillion yuan. The relationship between insurance and deposits may evolve as deposit rates decline [29][30]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Implications - The behavior of residents regarding high-risk assets is largely dependent on market conditions, with significant increases in holdings during bullish markets. For instance, the net value of bond funds held by individuals rose from 399 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024, but growth slowed in 2025 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes that the migration of deposits does not necessarily correlate with an increase in early loan repayments, as the majority of maturing deposits are from short-term fixed deposits, which typically have lower interest rates compared to existing mortgage rates [38].

2026年开年以来的行情可谓是十分火热 ， 即便近期主流宽基ETF大幅流出 ， 指数还是 " 稳稳当当 " ， 成交量持续维持高位 ， 当前市场到底 处于什么状态 ？ 正好近期同事分享了一篇市场指标的观测报告 ， 借此分享给大家 ， 以便各位从数据层面 ， 更客观地理解和判断市场的位置 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：投顾主理人张济民 来源：雪球 自2025年12月17日以来 ， A股连续录得17连阳 ， 并在随后开始冲击4200点大关 ， 市场成交额逐步提升 ， 历史性直逼4万亿 ， 叠加增量资 金预期充足 ， 投资者风险偏好显著提升 。 然而 ， 宽基指数ETF在进入1月以来加速流出 ， 过去一周沪深300ETF净流出规模更是超过900亿元 。 与此同时 ， 2026年1月14日 ， 经中国 证监会批准 ， 沪 、 深 、 北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例 ， 将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100% ， 引 发市场热议 。 大规模的宽基型ETF的快速流出 、 以及监管层的 " ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the impending maturity of approximately 50 trillion yuan in term deposits by 2026, leading to a competitive landscape for banks and financial products as customers seek better returns amid declining interest rates [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Millions of households are facing reduced interest rates on term deposits, with current rates dropping below 2% compared to over 3% three years ago [1]. - The competition for these maturing deposits has intensified, with banks and financial institutions vying for customers' funds as they transition from traditional savings to more diversified investment options [2][4]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Financial institutions are launching various "fixed income plus" products that combine low-risk assets with enhanced yield opportunities, appealing to customers looking for stable returns [4][7]. - Internet banks like WeBank and MyBank are introducing innovative products with lower investment thresholds, making it easier for average consumers to access investment opportunities previously reserved for high-net-worth individuals [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The "fixed income plus" strategy is gaining traction, with average yields for these products outperforming traditional fixed income products by 24 basis points in 2025 [7][8]. - The shift towards "fixed income plus" reflects a broader market demand for investment solutions that balance stability with the potential for higher returns, catering to the evolving preferences of investors in a low-interest-rate environment [8].

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 ——理财登 2025 年报解读 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端："存款搬家"叙事逻辑强于债市波动&股市分流 截至 2025 年末，理财规模增至 33.29 万亿元，全年增长 3.34 万亿元，yoy+11.15%。 2025 年"存款搬家"叙事贯穿，逻辑仍强于债市波动、股市分流，规模延续高 增。季节性上，2025 年理财增长总体符合季节性规律，若加回季末回表规模， 理财在 2025 年 12 月或实际达到历史高点 33.7 万亿元左右。预计 2026Q1 理财增 长较为后置，主要由于春节时间较晚（2 月中下旬），加权益市场情绪较热、 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 《政策支撑稳增长，关注 Q1 银行景气 度修复行情 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.16 《2026 钱往何处：理财真净值化时代 的攻守之道—2026 年理财资产配置展 望》-2026.1.8 规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金"成配置主线 ——理财登 2025 年报解读 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端："存款搬家"叙事逻辑强于债市波动&股市分流 截至 2025 年末，理财规模增至 33.29 万亿元，全年增长 3.34 万亿元，yoy+11.15%。 2025 年"存款搬家"叙事贯穿，逻辑仍强于债市波动、股市分流，规 ...

美元潮汐变局中的战略定力 中国经济发展的三个"核反应堆"策略 ——等待2026年美国丧失加息能力，届时美元潮汐或终结。为保股市利润、汇率及息差，中国不跟随美国降息。 ——"十五五规划"后央行资产负债表再造，抛弃外贸占款，从强制结汇变不强制结汇，提升汇率，吸引资本回流助力产业升级。 ——推动70万亿存款搬家，解决代际再分配问题，避免90后因无存款搬家机会产生民粹等问题。 全球经济波诡云谲，国内经济转型压力凸显，如何精准对冲外部风险、深度破解内部发展难题？思塔资本刘冲近日提出，中国经济可依托三大关键策略打 造发展"核反应堆"——借美元加息变局稳住发展基本盘，以央行资产负债表再造赋能产业升级，靠推动存款搬家平衡代际分配。这三大策略协同发力、同 频运转，必将上演中国速度为经济高质量发展注入强劲动力。 这一重构的威力堪称"金融赋能产业"的典范。过去，强制结售汇制度让央行被动吸纳外汇、释放基础货币，既制约了货币政策独立性，又容易引发流动性 过剩。而如今的制度转型，让人民币汇率更具弹性，企业可自主调配外汇资金，央行则能将货币政策的主动权牢牢掌握在手中。更重要的是，汇率形成机 制的市场化改革，正吸引全球长期资本回流中国，这些 ...