Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, the A - share market showed a mixed performance across different sectors. Some sectors like stock index futures rose, while others such as coke, coal, and some commodities faced downward pressure. The market is influenced by various factors including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and external news [1][2][3]. - Different commodities are in different supply - demand situations. For example, the soybean market has abundant supply in the short - term but faces long - term supply pressure; the pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; and the copper market has support from macro and supply - demand factors but also faces callback risks [5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 12, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 3194.36 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2092.2 billion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4580.95, a rise of 28.77 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 12, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1548.6, a decrease of 51.0 compared to the previous day. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 999.7 yuan, a decrease of 34.5 compared to the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the first - round reduction of spot purchase prices has been implemented, supply is stable, but demand may weaken due to potential steel mill production cuts. The second - round price reduction has started, and coking enterprises maintain high production due to improved profitability. For coking coal, affected by Mongolia's plan to increase coal exports next year, it dropped significantly on the 11th. The supply is tight, but the Mongolian coal port's customs clearance has recovered to a high level, and the market trading sentiment is cold [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of short - term technical indicators, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing up the US sugar price on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly higher. As of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,860 lots to 201,910 lots [4]. Rubber - Affected by Thailand's rubber price - stabilizing measures, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Friday. As of December 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 12324 tons to 105542 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 11460 tons to 56990 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 604 tons to 61689 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2218 tons to 59573 tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - Multiple institutions estimate that the soybean production in South America is still at a historically high level. The sowing of Argentine soybeans is 58% complete, and the crop quality is fair. The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil's and Argentina's soybean production at 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November. - On December 12, the M2605 main contract of domestic bean meal closed at 2770 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.73%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil mills have a high crushing volume. However, the extension of customs clearance time and the pre - holiday stocking of feed enterprises have relieved the supply pressure of bean meal. The bean meal futures show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [5]. Live Pigs - On December 12, the LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11325 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, which suppresses the futures price. Although the consumption of pork has improved marginally due to the drop in temperature and the start of the traditional curing season in the southwest region, the current consumption recovery is still mild, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising during the day and falling sharply at night, with a slight overall increase. The highest price was 94360 yuan/ton, and it closed at 91550 yuan/ton at night. Short - term macro - economic easing and supply - demand balance support the copper price, but high prices may suppress downstream demand and lead to profit - taking and callback risks [6]. Iron Ore - On December 12, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.33% to 760.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore increased, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season decreased, and the iron water production decreased further. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On December 12, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.34% to 2962 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the north was flat, and the terminal demand in the south was weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On Friday, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 747.5, with the lowest price of 743.5, the highest price of 750, and closed at 749, with an increase of 10 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged compared to the previous day, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7][8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13905 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 142 lots compared to the previous day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [8]. Steel - The Central Economic Work Conference released positive macro - policy signals, which are conducive to market stability. However, the steel market is currently dominated by fundamentals. On the 12th, cold wave, snowstorm, and gale warnings were issued, and the demand for steel in the off - season further weakened. In the short term, the demand contraction may be greater than the supply, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the steel price shows a weak and volatile trend [8]. Alumina - As the pre - Spring Festival transportation capacity decreases and the delivery warehouse releases expired warehouse receipts, holders' inventory and sales pressure increase, leading to low - price sales. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, and although short - term production cuts may drive the price up, it is difficult to pass on the price increase to the end - market. The overall supply of ore is increasing, and the price is in a downward process. The alumina market has a supply - demand mismatch, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost - side support is weakening [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. The transportation in the northwest is restricted, and the arrival at the consumption area is normal. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, the aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. The current market is more affected by macro - expectations, with macro - factors being positive and fundamentals having both long and short factors [8].

明年经济工作怎么干？中央经济工作会议明确了大政方针，提出了做好明年经济工作的总体要求和政策 取向，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央科学判断形势、把握我国发展大势作出的统筹谋划。 "坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全""实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性""持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存 量"……对中央经济工作会议提出的明年经济工作总体要求，我们要放在党和国家事业发展全局中来领 会贯彻。 今年以来，我国经济发展面临多重困难和挑战，关税阴云笼罩全球贸易，国际货币基金组织、世界银行 等国际机构纷纷下调全球经济增长预期。在党中央坚强领导下，中国迅速反击、多管齐下，在多领域打 出反制"组合拳"有效应对，始终牢牢掌握主动权，赢得了国际社会尊重。 一年来，我们着力推动传统产业蝶变、新兴产业壮大、未来产业生长，今年前三季度规模以上高技术制 造业增加值同比增长9.6%；坚定实施扩大内需战略，前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达 53.5%……从加快建设现代化产业体系，到建设全国统一大市场、做强国内大循环，构筑起应对风险挑 战的坚实底气，"中国之治"风景 ...

本次会议将去年底提出的五个"必须统筹"改为新五个"必须"。 明年预算赤字率或继续维持在4%左右，但新增政府债务规模（包括赤字、专项债和特别国债）或超过 今年11.86万亿元的水平。 关于适度宽松的货币政策，会议强调把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵 活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。人民银行主要负责人在会后接受媒体采访时表示，央行将继续实 施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，为经济稳定增长和金融市场稳定运行 创造良好货币金融环境。由此可见，货币政策的支持性立场不会改变，但期待大幅宽松是不现实的。明 年重点是要在优化结构性货币政策工具运用、加强与财政政策协同的基础上，进一步畅通货币政策传 导，统筹做好五篇金融"大文章"。会议连续四年提出"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"， 这表明防止汇率超调仍是当前宏观调控的重中之重。 日前召开的中央经济工作会议（下称"会议"）对2026年经济工作做出了重大部署。2026年是"十五五"开 局之年，会议通稿内容与《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下 称"'十五五'规划建议"）一脉相承，是从"写意画 ...

人民日报12月15日刊发评论员文章，题目为《着眼全局，把握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向—— 论学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神》。全文如下： 会议明确明年经济工作的政策取向，指出"坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，这将有力引导经济社会发展预期，有助于充分释放和提升宏观政 策效能。对明年财政政策和货币政策定调，要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策，继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，这与今年的政策取向一以贯之，体现了宏观政策的连续性、稳定性，是不断巩固拓展经济稳中 向好势头的重大决策部署。 今年以来，从安排1.3万亿元超长期特别国债加力支持"两重""两新"，到创设和实施多项结构性货币政 策工具为科技创新、提振消费等提供助力，再到强化宏观政策民生导向、使更多资金资源"投资于 人"……一项项政策因时酝酿、因势推出、协同发力，激发出经济高质量发展的强劲动能。实践充分证 明，有效的宏观政策、精准的宏观调控，对于促进我国经济平稳健康发展至关重要。 把握明年经济工作的政策取向，一个重要方面就是"提质增效"。既坚持积极务实的目标导向，把握好政 策实施的力度、节奏和时机，发挥"集成效应 ...

新华社北京12月14日电 人民日报12月15日评论员文章：着眼全局，把握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向 今年以来，我国经济发展面临多重困难和挑战，关税阴云笼罩全球贸易，国际货币基金组织、世 界银行等国际机构纷纷下调全球经济增长预期。在党中央坚强领导下，中国迅速反击、多管齐 下，在多领域打出反制"组合拳"有效应对，始终牢牢掌握主动权，赢得了国际社会尊重。 一年来，我们着力推动传统产业蝶变、新兴产业壮大、未来产业生长，今年前三季度规模以上高 技术制造业增加值同比增长9.6%；坚定实施扩大内需战略，前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡 献率达53.5%……从加快建设现代化产业体系，到建设全国统一大市场、做强国内大循环，构筑 起应对风险挑战的坚实底气，"中国之治"风景这边独好。 从一年来很不平凡的发展历程中，我们更加深刻理解党的二十届四中全会把"坚持统筹发展和安 全"列为"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须遵循的重大原则之一，更加深入领悟这次会议提出两 个"更好统筹"的明确要求。 当前，世界百年变局加速演进，大国关系牵动国际形势，国际形势演变深刻影响国内发展，我国 发展仍面临各种不确定难预料的风险因素，统筹发展和安全任务更加 ...

新华社北京12月14日电 人民日报12月15日评论员文章：着眼全局，把握明年经济工作的总体要求 和政策取向——论学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神 把握明年经济工作的政策取向，一个重要方面就是"提质增效"。既坚持积极务实的目标导向，把握 好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，发挥"集成效应"，不断提高政策精准度和有效性；又强化系统观念， 增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性，使各类政策举措同向发力、形成合力。发挥好宏观政策作为经济 的"稳定器"作用，在质的有效提升上取得更大突破，定能推动经济运行和市场预期持续向好，把制度优 势不断转化为治理效能、发展胜势。 一年来，我们着力推动传统产业蝶变、新兴产业壮大、未来产业生长，今年前三季度规模以上高技 术制造业增加值同比增长9.6%；坚定实施扩大内需战略，前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达 53.5%……从加快建设现代化产业体系，到建设全国统一大市场、做强国内大循环，构筑起应对风险挑 战的坚实底气，"中国之治"风景这边独好。 从一年来很不平凡的发展历程中，我们更加深刻理解党的二十届四中全会把"坚持统筹发展和安 全"列为"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须遵循的重大原则之一，更加深入领悟这次 ...

宏观周报 坚持内需主导，政策更加有为 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 核心结论 中央经济工作会议：坚持内需主导，政策更加有为。12 月 10 日至 11 日中 央经济工作会议召开。会议指出，当前经济发展面临问题和挑战，但长期向 好趋势不变。我们预计 2026 年经济增长目标定在 5%左右。2026 年将实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，增量政策和存量政策协同发力，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。我们预计 2026 年一般预算赤字率维 持 4%左右，广义政府融资规模较 2025 年进一步增加，相对 GDP 比例可能 保持基本稳定；公开市场操作利率和 LPR 下调 10 个 bp 左右。会议对 2026 年经济工作提出八方面主要任务，其中"坚持内需主导"放在 2026 年经济 工作任务首位。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，有助于促进物价回升。此外，会 议还提出稳定房地产市场，加强民生保障，着力稳就业等方面任务。 中观产业跟踪：工业需求平淡，黑色系走弱，焦煤焦炭价格大跌，受下游钢 厂需求下滑、炼焦煤进口增长、反内卷不及预期等因素影响；南华玻璃价格 周跌超 8%。相比之下，美联储降息预期落地，有 ...

Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the emphasis on the importance of the "Five Musts" proposed during the Central Economic Work Conference, which aims to guide economic work in the new situation and ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The "Five Musts" include fully tapping economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, ensuring both flexibility and regulation, integrating investment in physical assets and human capital, and focusing on internal capabilities to face external challenges [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement the "Five Musts" into practical outcomes, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to achieve qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth [2][3] - The banking and insurance sectors are expected to align with macro policy directions, utilizing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [2][3] Group 2: Industrial and Financial Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, reinforcing the industrial sector's role in stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [3] - The People's Bank of China will implement more proactive macro policies, focusing on financial supply-side structural reforms and optimizing funding structures to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [3] - The Ministry of Commerce is committed to enhancing foreign trade quality and efficiency, leveraging China's large market to create more development opportunities for countries worldwide [3] Group 3: Resource Management and Environmental Protection - The Ministry of Natural Resources will focus on innovative land and space planning, improving resource allocation efficiency, and promoting integrated protection and systematic governance of natural resources to ensure a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]

连日来，习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上的重要讲话，在中央和国家机关广大党员干部中引发热烈反响。大家表示，明年经济工作的大政方针已定，任 务艰巨，意义重大。要更加紧密团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑战，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，确保"十五 五"开好局、起好步。 中央经济工作会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险 化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 农业农村部帮扶司副司长 刘均勇：有以习近平同志为核心的党中央领航掌舵，有习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想科学指引，我们就有了战胜一切艰难 险阻的最大底气，中国经济巨轮乘风破浪，行稳致远。 海关总署统计分析司司长 吕大良：尽管面临外部冲击，我国外贸总体保持稳步增长，展现了强大的韧性和活力。这些成绩的取得，根本在于以习近平同志 为核心的党中央领航掌舵，在于习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的科学指引。"两个确立"是我们战胜一切艰难险阻、应对一切不确定性的最大确定性、 最大底气、最大保证。 关于做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会，会议提出"五个必须"， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year 2025 despite external pressures [1][2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.2%, indicating resilience against complex external changes [1] - There is a notable challenge of weak domestic demand, reflecting insufficient internal consumption, although positive changes are emerging, such as a rise in core CPI and a 3.2% increase in industrial enterprise profits [1][2] Group 2 - Four major opportunities for China's economy by 2026 include the new layout of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on significant projects in new infrastructure and public services [2] - The transition of China's industry from low-cost advantages to comprehensive competitive advantages is highlighted, leveraging its vast market, complete industrial chain, and talent pool, particularly in digital economy and new energy sectors [2] - The implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies in 2026 is anticipated to support economic stability and growth [3] - Improvement in the asset-liability balance of microeconomic entities is noted, with rising core CPI, strong performance in the high-tech stock market, and a gradual stabilization in the real estate sector contributing to this recovery [3]