Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand and optimism regarding a potential US-China trade agreement [1] Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The euro/yen pair found support around 177.50 after two consecutive days of decline [1] - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep the short-term interest rate target in the range of 0.4%-0.5% challenges the yen [1] - The yen's weakness is expected to continue as market sentiment improves due to optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan has extended its pause on tightening monetary policy for the sixth meeting, following a 25 basis point hike in January [1] - Officials from the Bank of Japan are expected to discuss conditions for resuming rate hikes amid easing tariff pressures and rising domestic inflation [1] - The outlook is complicated by the new Prime Minister's support for loose monetary policy and resistance to early tightening [1] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are meeting to discuss a wide range of topics, including tariffs on fentanyl, rare earths, soybean trade, and TikTok agreements [1] - The discussions are anticipated to influence market sentiment and the performance of the yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair is heavily influenced by Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicating a shift towards more dovish monetary policy, with potential implications for market stability and the Fed's independence [1][13]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Positions - The five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are all dovish, advocating for significant interest rate cuts, contrasting with Powell's cautious approach [1][8]. - The candidates include Waller, Bowman, former Governor Warsh, White House economic advisor Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Ried, all of whom align with Trump's desire for aggressive monetary easing [5][8]. Group 2: Bessent's Role - Bessent holds significant power in the selection process, having narrowed down the initial list of candidates from eleven to five, indicating his influence over the final choice [5][10]. - Despite not officially running for the position, Bessent's preferences will likely shape the policies of whoever is ultimately selected, as he has publicly called for a reduction in interest rates by 150-175 basis points [5][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The potential appointment of a candidate aligned with Trump's views could lead to increased volatility in U.S. equity markets and fluctuations in the dollar's value, as the Fed's independence may be compromised [13]. - The market perceives that selecting Hassett would mean a direct alignment with Trump's policies, while Waller would maintain a facade of professionalism while still adhering to Trump's directives [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Powell's hawkish statement, the prices of gold and silver dropped in the short term. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. However, the Fed Chairman has made a statement on balance sheet expansion. This FOMC meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent monetary policy idea of "rate cut + balance sheet expansion." In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to buy on dips for silver, which will benefit more. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.64% to 11265.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 3949.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 47.54 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.08%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.13 [1]. - The Fed held an FOMC meeting early today. The tone of this meeting was a "hawkish rate cut." Powell's monetary policy statement was hawkish, and he also made a statement on the final balance sheet expansion [1]. Key Focus Directions of the FOMC Meeting - The statement on the subsequent interest rate path was more hawkish than market expectations. Powell stated that "a rate cut in December is not a certainty," and the lack of economic data could be a reason to pause interest rate adjustments [1]. - The discussion on the balance sheet was more dovish than market expectations in the medium term. Although the FOMC decided to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, which was later than market expectations, Powell clearly stated that the Fed would expand the balance sheet again. This was his first key statement on balance sheet expansion in this rate - cut cycle [1]. - The voting was more hawkish than market expectations. Fed Governor Milan voted against as expected and supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut. Governors Bowman and Waller did not support aggressive rate cuts. Hawkish voting member Schmidt voted against and supported keeping the interest rate unchanged at this FOMC meeting [2]. Gold and Silver Data Comparison (2025 - 10 - 29 vs. 2025 - 10 - 28) - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.67% to 3941.70 US dollars/ounce, trading volume decreased by 14.96% to 28.11 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. LBMA gold's closing price increased by 1.47% to 4006.70 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Gold's closing price (active contract) increased by 1.05% to 910.88 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 25.73% to 47.79 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 34.27 million lots. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 1.75% to 912.42 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 23.05% to 52.13 tons, and open interest decreased by 1.19% to 255.69 tons [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 0.29% to 47.28 US dollars/ounce, and open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.74% to 48.18 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 2.62% to 11338.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 28.93% to 125.13 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 68.89 million lots. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 3.23% to 11351.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 20.90% to 605.45 tons, and open interest decreased by 2.92% to 3609.146 tons [5].

Group 1 - As of the end of September, the net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.74 trillion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of nearly 500 billion yuan, a new historical high [1] - The scale of equity funds increased by over 400 billion yuan compared to the end of August [1] - Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans maintained their holdings in broad-based ETFs, providing continued support to the stock market, with ETF holdings growing by over 200 billion yuan in the third quarter, reaching approximately 1.55 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is attracting foreign investment due to technological development, improved China-US trade relations, and loose monetary policies [1] - Foreign investors are seeking diversified investments and assets decoupled from the US market, with Morgan Stanley reporting an increase in foreign purchases of Chinese stocks [1] - Demand for Chinese funds has significantly increased, with investment firms receiving about 30 inquiries from clients seeking opportunities in China, contrasting sharply with the low demand seen in 2023 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in London gold prices, surpassing the psychological threshold of $4000 per ounce, is attributed to market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the potential end of quantitative tightening, which has led to renewed buying interest in gold [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 99.9% according to the CME Fedwatch tool [3]. - There is anticipation that the Fed will end its quantitative tightening, which involves reducing its balance sheet of approximately $6.6 trillion [3][4]. - Market analysts suggest that a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy from the Fed will support gold prices, as it may weaken the dollar and lower the holding costs of gold [4][7]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Since September, London gold has seen a strong increase of approximately 29%, reaching a historical high of $4381 per ounce on October 20, before experiencing a significant sell-off [4]. - The recent drop below $4000 per ounce was not unexpected, but this level remains a critical psychological barrier for investors [5]. - Analysts indicate that if gold stabilizes around the $4000 mark, it may attract buyers back into the market [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by ongoing concerns about inflation and currency devaluation [6][7]. - Historical trends show that gold typically performs well in the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle, and current economic indicators suggest further rate cuts may occur [7]. - The World Gold Council reports that while gold ETF inflows have been strong, total holdings are still below historical peaks, indicating potential for future growth in gold investments [7][9].

（原标题：加纳央行将进一步下调政策利率至19%） 据加纳"欢乐新闻网"10月26日报道，权威金融研究机构IC Research近日发 布报告称，加纳央行将在2025年11月再次实施降息，预计下调幅度为250-300 个基点。这将是继今年9月降息后，加纳央行在三个月内推出的第二轮宽松货 币政策。 数据显示，此次降息预期主要基于持续改善的通胀数据。2025年9月，加纳 年度通胀率大幅回落至9.4%，较上月下降2.1个百分点，不仅优于市场预期， 也是自2021年8月以来通胀率首次回到央行设定的中期目标区间。分析指出， 这一关键数据标志着加纳经济在经历四年多的通胀压力后，正稳步迈向价格稳 定阶段。 从结构上看，通胀放缓呈现普遍趋势。占消费者价格指数（CPI）比重达 72.5%的商品通胀显著下降至11.2%，而服务类通胀也维持在4.8%的温和水 平。报告强调，通胀压力的持续缓解为货币政策进一步宽松提供了空间。加纳 央行已于今年9月将政策利率从25%下调至21.5%，若11月再次降息，基准利率 有望降至19%以下，标志着该国正式进入新一轮宽松周期。 市场分析认为，降息预期已对债券市场产生影响，预计2025年第四季度国 内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in international gold prices is attributed to profit-taking after previous highs and a technical need for short-term adjustments, which is considered a normal fluctuation during high-level operations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global fiscal deficits are expected to continue expanding, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy [1] - In a loose environment, the risk-free interest rate remains low, enhancing the appeal of gold as a "no-credit-backed" safe-haven asset [1] - The stable trend of central bank gold purchases highlights the long-term strategic value of gold allocation, supported by both policy and demand factors [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - This week, market focus will be on geopolitical developments, particularly in the Russia-Ukraine context, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which may impact short-term gold price movements [1] - From a technical perspective, short-term support is observed in the range of $3970 to $3950 per ounce, while resistance is noted at around $4070 per ounce [1] - Continuous monitoring of global debt and central bank gold purchasing dynamics is essential, along with vigilance against short-term sentiment-induced volatility, while emphasizing the sustainability of long-term support logic [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the treasury bond futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, with the central value moving slightly lower in the second half of the week. The bullish factor was the expectation of loose monetary policy. Market hotspots included the progress of Sino - US game and the focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan in the Fourth Plenary Session. The Sino - US talks signaled a marginal easing, raising market risk appetite. The 15th Five - Year Plan will have multi - dimensional impacts on the bond market, and in the long - term, the interest rate center is expected to remain at a historically low level [4]. - In the short term, treasury bond futures are expected to continue to be strong under the support of risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, but attention should be paid to potential fluctuations. In the long term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge, deflation is likely to continue, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - The treasury bond futures market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week, with the central value dropping slightly in the second half. The expectation of loose monetary policy was a positive factor. Market trading hotspots were the Sino - US game and the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US talks eased tensions, and the 15th Five - Year Plan will affect the bond market in multiple ways, with long - term interest rates expected to stay low [4]. - Short - term, treasury bond futures may stay strong, but beware of fluctuations. Long - term, due to insufficient effective demand and potential deflation, the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and trends on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), and various interest rates such as reverse repurchase rates, MLF rates, and different types of repurchase rates and SHIBOR [10][12][14]. - It also shows information on capital prices, including deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and various repurchase rates, as well as data on inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates and excess reserve ratios [18][25]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65].

她同时呼吁央行加强与市场的沟通。片山表示："希望日本央行行长植田和男能够与市场进行适当沟 通，以传达日本央行的经济、物价观点及基本政策立场"，并重申"日本央行有必要继续与市场进行适当 对话"。 在财政政策方面，片山皋月确认，日本内阁尚未决定放弃实现初级预算盈余的目标，显示政府仍致力于 中长期财政纪律。当被问及是否考虑提高金融所得税时，她回应称"需要考虑各种因素"，未给出明确倾 向，亦未透露具体政策时间表。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月24日电日本财务大臣片山皋月强调，日本央行与政府之间保持政策协调与沟通的重要 性，并明确表示现阶段无需对央行货币政策作出特别评论。 片山皋月指出："日本央行的货币政策与政府的基本政策保持一致至关重要。" 她援引日本央行行长植 田和男本人过往表态称，"植田行长曾强调维持宽松货币环境的重要性"，并基于此认为，"目前的情况 并不需要我对日本央行的政策作出任何特别评论"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, marks a significant political shift, but she faces complex economic challenges, including high inflation and substantial government debt [1][3]. Economic Context - Takaichi inherits a situation characterized by high inflation, with Japan's inflation rate exceeding the 2% target for several months, contrasting with the deflationary environment faced by her predecessor, Shinzo Abe [1][2]. - Japan's government debt stands at 240% of GDP, the highest among major economies, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1]. Policy Proposals - Takaichi plans to implement active fiscal policies, including the issuance of deficit bonds to address high inflation, although this could exacerbate the deficit [2]. - She aims to support wage increases for employees, particularly in struggling small and medium-sized enterprises, through tax reductions, though skepticism exists regarding the effectiveness of this approach [2]. - Proposed measures to alleviate consumer burdens include lowering gasoline taxes and increasing local subsidies, but the sustainability of these initiatives under Japan's strict fiscal discipline is uncertain [2]. Political Landscape - Takaichi's ascension is seen as a potential shift in the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) image, but historical precedents suggest that newly elected leaders often adopt more pragmatic and moderate policies once in office [2][3]. - The likelihood of a full-scale return to "Abenomics 2.0" is considered low, with expectations leaning towards more moderate, growth-oriented policies in the short term [2].