Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9204, with an opening price of 9110 and a current price of 9213, reflecting a 0.70% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 9244, while the lowest is 9095, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The analysis suggests that silver will benefit more than gold from the anticipated easing of monetary policy, with a recommended trading range for the main silver contract set between 9020 and 10000 per kilogram [4] Group 2 - AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver indicates that Australia's unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia should lower interest rates [3] - The basic forecast from AMP predicts rate cuts in August, November, February, and May of the following year, with the potential for quicker policy easing due to weak employment data [3] - The initial consumer confidence index for July from the University of Michigan is expected to rise to 61.5 from June's final value of 60.7, with inflation expectations also being closely monitored [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown strong performance and liquidity, with significant capital inflows and a favorable market environment driven by a loose monetary policy [3][4][5]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 17, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.38% in July [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 9.152 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [4]. - The fund's net inflow was 45.0394 million yuan, with a total of 1.441 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [4]. - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.64% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 412 in the index bond fund category [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trading volume for the ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 13.16% and a transaction volume of 1.203 billion yuan [3]. - The central bank's current stance is accommodative, supporting liquidity in the market amid global uncertainties [3]. - The insurance industry has raised over 74 billion yuan in capital this year, indicating a growing demand for capital [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a tracking error of 0.035% over the past month [5]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, reflecting the overall performance of corresponding government bonds [5].

但旧金山联储主席戴利却打出"鸽派组合拳"，她坚持认为年底前降息两次仍属合理，并强调："关税的 实际影响比预期温和，我们不该过度收紧伤害就业市场。"更引人注目的是，理事沃勒突然抛出"7月应 降息25个基点"的震撼观点，其提出的三大理由极具杀伤力：关税通胀具有暂时性、经济增速已低于潜 在水平、就业市场暗藏风险。这种高层意见分裂导致利率期货市场剧烈波动，目前定价显示9月降息概 率维持在54%，但7月行动可能性已升至30%。 【技术分析】 相比于当前的通胀和就业数据，美联储独立性受挫是后续贵金属市场交易的主线，宽松货币政策预期将 驱动金银价格进一步走强，而白银将相较于黄金而言更收益于这一预期，策略上建议关注白银的做多机 会，沪银主力合约参考运行区间9020-10000元/千克。今天银价大概率是震荡走势，前高在9285，今天 沪银二次上行的话关注是否有双顶或者次高点，如果形成可以尝试做空，看一下高位震荡的回落空间， 下方看到9150。 周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，白银期货震荡上行，最新沪银主力交投于9239元/千克，涨幅0.98%，当前 正处于美联储政策、美国经济数据、美元走势和关税政策的多重博弈之中，本交易日需要关注 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-18 此外，食品、饮料及外出就餐等分项环比值回升，与前日公布总 CPI 中具备韧性的食品通胀相 符。上个月零售额增长的部分原因是关税政策所推动的价格上涨，而非销量形成的驱动。 今晨联储主席热门候选人、理事沃勒再度鸽派表态，他表示美联储应当在七月议息会议中将利 率下调 25 个基点。相比于当前的通胀和就业数据，美联储独立性受挫是后续贵金属市场交易 的主线，宽松货币政策预期将驱动金银价格进一步走强，而白银将相较于黄金而言更收益于这 一预期，策略上建议关注白银的做多机会，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 759-809 元/克，沪银 主力合约参考运行区间 9020-10000 元/千克。 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au(T+D) | 元/克 | 770.92 | 772.20 | -1.28 | -0.17% | Ag(T+D) | 元/千克 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Fed officials' hawkish stance on interest rate cuts led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the expectation of loose monetary policy due to the Fed's undermined independence persists. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on silver prices. Traders are advised to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Price Performance - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.05% to 778.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.11% to 9167.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.17% to 3353.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver decreased 0.65% to 38.49 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 98.15 [2]. 3.2 Market Participants' Views - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, so there is no urgent need for an interest rate cut. US President Trump hopes for a loose monetary policy and suggests the Fed should cut the interest rate below 1%. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both the September and December FOMC meetings [2]. 3.3 Key Data Comparison - **Gold**: The closing price of Au(T + D) was 777.46 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Gold was 3351.15 dollars/ounce, down 0.03%. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 947.64 tons [4]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Ag(T + D) was 9172.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.60% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Silver was 39.00 dollars/ounce, up 3.99%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons, a 1.41% increase [4]. 3.4 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - **Gold**: The closing price of COMEX Gold's active contract was 3352.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.54% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 12.60% to 18.09 million lots; open interest increased by 1.25% to 44.31 million lots; inventory remained unchanged at 1143 tons [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of COMEX Silver's active contract was 38.41 dollars/ounce, down 1.70% from the previous day; open interest decreased by 0.47% to 16.28 million lots; inventory increased by 0.34% to 15447 tons [6]. 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price and volume of COMEX Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc [11][16][27] 3.6 Near - and Far - Month Structure - There are charts showing the near - and far - month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, London Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the price differences between different contracts [20][21][38] 3.7 Management Fund Net Long Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver management funds and prices [41] 3.8 ETF Holdings - There are charts showing the total holdings of Gold and Silver ETFs [48] 3.9 Internal - External Price Differences - On July 14, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was 25.37 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 5.43 yuan/gram; the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 356.49 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.55 dollars/ounce [49]

特朗普周五表示 暂无罢免鲍威尔的计划，但称其工作"糟糕透顶"，"让国家损失大量资金"。 白宫预算主管沃特（Russell Vought）周四致信鲍威尔，暗示其在 25亿美元装修项目上向国会作伪证或违反建筑许可规定。 分析人士认为， 这是在为以"正当理由"罢免鲍威尔制造法律依据，因最高法院裁决限制了总统因政策分歧解职美联储官员的权力。 白宫顾问正在加紧对美联储主席鲍威尔展开施压行动，指控他在国会就美联储总部装修项目撒谎或严重管理不当，为罢免鲍威尔开辟新的法律途径。这一策略 呼应了尼克松政府1972年通过散布假消息损害美联储信誉的做法。 7月11日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发文表示， 围绕美联储总部翻修的争议，可能会成为特朗普试图因利率分歧而罢免鲍威尔 的借口 。 文章称，特朗普同时在负责首都重大建设项目审批的联邦委员会中安插三名白宫顾问，包括白宫副幕僚长布莱尔（James Blair）。 这一举措与尼克松总统在1972年大选前发起的类似施压活动相呼应，当时他的政府捏造了美联储主席伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）在推行不受欢迎的经济政策的同 时寻求加薪的虚假消息，目的是 ...

关于鲍威尔考虑辞职的消息突然刷屏。 美东时间7月11日，美国联邦住房金融局局长兼房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特发表声明称："有报道 称美联储主席鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这将是对美国的正确决定。"对此，美联储发言人拒绝置评。 在上述消息传出后，美股三大指数周五盘中一度短线跳水。有分析称，市场的负面反应凸显了投资者对美联储 潜在领导层变动的敏感性，尤其是在经济不确定时期。 与此同时，美联储官员的最新讲话也引发市场关注。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比周五警告称，美国总统 特朗普公布的新关税可能再次引发通胀担忧，迫使美联储维持观望态度。 "鲍威尔考虑辞职" 美东时间7月11日，有媒体报道称，一位特朗普政府高级官员公开暗示，因美联储华盛顿总部翻新项目面临的 压力，美联储主席鲍威尔可能"考虑辞职"。 比尔·普尔特在 美国联邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 官网发表声明称："有报道称杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这让我 感到鼓舞。我认为这将是对美国的正确决定，经济将会繁荣。" 对于辞职传闻，美联储发言人拒绝置评，仅重申鲍威尔此前在4月4日的表态，即他打算完成其到2026年5月的 任期。 这场风波的导火索是，鲍威尔被指在国会就美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should continue to adopt an accommodative monetary policy if the downside growth risks further hinder the process of controlling inflation [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Panetta emphasized the need for ongoing monetary easing in response to increasing downside growth risks [1]

金十数据7月11日讯，高盛集团策略师上调了对亚洲股市的预期，理由是宏观经济环境更加有利，关税 的确定性增加。以Timothy Moe为首的策略师在周五的一份报告中表示，MSCI亚太（除日本外）指数的 12个月目标指数上调了3%，至700点，这意味着在此期间以美元计算的回报率为9%。该团队还将港股 评级上调至"持股"（market weight），并称其将在美联储开启宽松周期、美元走弱的背景下成为主要受 益者之一。他们补充称，菲律宾等也是对这一趋势最为敏感、受益最大的市场之一。策略师们表 示："关税征收和宽松的货币政策可能是第三季度对亚洲股市的重要宏观影响。"他们指出，即便最终实 施的关税税率略高于当前的基线预期，"其对基本面增长的冲击可能不会像市场在第二季度初所担忧的 那样严重。" 高盛策略师：上调亚洲股票目标，调高港股评级 ...

从技术面来看，澳元 / 美元的支撑位和阻力位较为清晰。初步支撑位在 0.6505-0.6510 区间，更强的支撑位 则在 0.6480-0.6485 区间，这些位置是多方力量的重要防线，若价格跌破，可能引发进一步的下行压力。阻 力位方面，0.6560 和 0.6590 构成了上行路上的主要障碍，需要强劲的买盘推动才能突破。而在亚洲交易时 段，澳元 / 美元的波动区间为 0.6534-0.6549，显示出当前市场交投相对谨慎，多空双方处于暂时的平衡状 态。 综合来看，澳元 / 美元虽然在美元走软和澳洲联储暂停降息的支撑下出现小幅上涨，但特朗普关税政策引 发的市场紧张情绪、澳洲联储未来宽松政策的预期等因素，共同限制了其上行空间。短期内，澳元 / 美元 可能在现有区间内震荡整理，投资者需密切关注美联储政策动向、美国经济数据以及全球贸易局势的变 化，以把握澳元的后续走势。 美联储会议记录释放的信号也对市场产生了重要影响，其中显示 "大多数与会决策者" 预计今年晚些时候 降息是合适的。这一预期强化了市场对美联储宽松货币政策的判断，进一步压制了美元走势，间接为澳元 等非美货币提供了喘息之机。 君諾外匯发现澳元 / 美元在 ...