Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report confirms that Algeria's economy, particularly the non-hydrocarbon sector, will continue to grow, with a projected real GDP growth of 4.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 driven by investment recovery and increased private consumption [1] Economic Growth - The non-hydrocarbon sector in Algeria is becoming increasingly active as a direct result of recent reforms [1] - Agriculture plays a significant role in Algeria's economic growth, with the service and agricultural sectors emerging as true growth drivers [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Algeria's inflation rate has improved significantly, dropping to 1.7% in the first nine months of 2025 due to declining food prices [1] - To further support economic growth, the Central Bank of Algeria implemented an accommodative monetary policy in August 2025, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 3% to 2.75% and reducing the statutory reserve requirement from 3% to 2% to enhance bank liquidity and facilitate financing [1] Future Projections - The World Bank anticipates that the non-hydrocarbon sector will maintain its growth momentum in 2025, with an expected annual growth rate of approximately 3.8% [1] Economic Diversification and Climate Strategy - Algeria needs to continue efforts to diversify its economy and incorporate climate issues into its development strategy [1] - Effective policies should be adopted to protect business production and residents' lives from drought and water scarcity risks [1] Desalination Capacity - Algeria has established 19 seawater desalination plants with a daily capacity exceeding 3.7 million cubic meters, providing drinking water for nearly 15 million residents [1] - Algeria has become a leader in seawater desalination capacity in Africa, ranking second in the Arab world [1]

贵金属日报 2025-12-16 贵金属研究 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.18 %，报 975.52 元/克，沪银涨 0.71 %，报 14815.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4334.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 64.13 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.18%，美元指数报 98.29 ； 继周末特朗普更加青睐提名前任理事凯文沃什作为新任联储主席的表态传出后。昨日关于美联 储人选的消息再出变数，CNBC 报道称特朗普核心团队成员对于哈塞特的候选人资格提出反对， 理由是哈塞特与特朗普本人的关系过于密切。而在多位联储主席潜在候选人中，哈塞特最为鸽 派，因此他提名可能性的下降令贵金属价格短线承压。 联储超预期的鸽派表态令白银价格表现强势，但议息会议短期的利多出尽也意味着白银本身的 涨势已进入加速阶段：回顾历史上的行情走势，国际银价往往在宽松货币政策周期中表现强势。 本次议息会议的宽松表态在超预期的同时，也显示了明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has returned to a "good news is bad news, bad news is good news" scenario, where a strong labor market, while beneficial for the economy, reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Data and Market Reactions - Upcoming U.S. employment data is expected to show a modest increase of 50,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, indicating a weak but not rapidly deteriorating labor market [3][8]. - The MSCI All Country World Index reached a historical high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on December 10, driven by enthusiasm for advancements in artificial intelligence and expectations of loose monetary policy [3][8]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the U.S. economy strengthening as tariff-related inflation effects diminish, with a projected economic growth of 2.3% for next year, up from a previous forecast of 1.8% [3][8]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Strategies - Citigroup's strategists predict a double-digit growth for U.S. stocks next year, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 12% to 7,700 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong corporate earnings and expectations of loose monetary policy [4][9]. - The overall supportive stance of the Federal Reserve is a key assumption in the investment strategy outlined by Citigroup [10].

摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson表示，本周美国就业数据的温和疲软可能会助长股市的看涨情绪，因 为这将增加美联储进一步降息的可能性。 投资者正在等待相关数据的线索，以判断美联储在连续三次降息后是否即将结束宽松货币政策，或者是 否必须采取更激进的措施。 "我们现在坚定地回到了好即坏/坏即好的局面，"Wilson在一份报告中写道，并解释说，劳动力市场繁 荣虽然对经济有利，但会降低2026年降息的可能性。 本周将在很大程度上填补美国政府停摆造成的数据空白，周二将公布延迟的月度就业数据，周四将公布 消费者通胀数据。 经济学家预计，就业人数将增加5万人，失业率为4.5%，这与疲软、但不会迅速恶化的劳动力市场相 符。 经济学家预计，就业人数将增加5万人，失业率为4.5%，这与疲软、但不会迅速恶化的劳动力市场相 符。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson表示，本周美国就业数据的温和疲软可能会助长股市的看涨情绪，因 为这将增加美联储进一步降息的可能性。 投资者正在等待相关数据的线索，以判断美联储在连续三次降息后 ...

基本面： 日线级别，金价周五录得较长影线阳线收盘彰显市场活力，盘中最高一度挑战4353美元附近后回吐收尾，虽录得上影线显示压力但仍牢牢守住多头空间，或 仍有望挑战此前历史高位4380一线。1--4小时级别，短线走势自上周盘中上破区间后市场迎来爆发，并进一步扩展短期多头空间至4353一线后争夺。至当前 亚盘时段，价格已重新收复盘中回吐挑战4330一线压力，日内或有望继续上行测试压力。交易者日内关注4310下方测试或尝试多单为主，上方压力留意 4350/4380附近。 操作思路： 与黄金形成鲜明对比的是白银的表现。现货白银一度飙升至64.64美元/盎司的历史性新高，但随后遭遇大规模获利了结，上周五下跌近3%，收于61.7美元附 近。上周白银累计上涨近5%，今年以来涨幅更是惊人地达到112%。推动白银大涨的主要因素包括库存持续收紧、工业需求强劲增长，尤其是太阳能、电动 汽车和数据中心等领域的应用需求爆发，以及白银被列入美国重要矿产清单。 美联储上周的降息决定并非一致通过，多位官员表达了反对意见。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德直言通胀"过热"，反对本次降息，认为货币政策应保持适度紧 缩。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也反对近期降息， ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $4319.17 per ounce, showing a slight upward trend despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further rate cuts [2] - Investors anticipate two rate cuts next year, providing strong support for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [2] - Last week, spot gold rose by 0.48%, closing near $4300 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4353 per ounce, marking the highest level since October 21 [2] - The market's bullish sentiment is bolstered by the Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points, which has heightened expectations for a loose monetary policy [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation at the beginning of the week, with significant data releases scheduled, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI data [3] - Previous price action showed gold facing resistance at the $4380 level, forming a "double top" bearish pattern before stabilizing around $3900 [3] - The current market structure suggests a "bullish flag" formation, indicating a strong foundation for future price increases [3] - Daily charts indicate a clear bullish trend, with gold prices successfully breaking above the previous consolidation range and maintaining above the $4200 level [5] - Short-term indicators show continued bullish momentum, with MACD and RSI supporting upward movement, suggesting further upside potential [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The price of U.S. crude oil is trading around $57.53 per barrel, with a weekly decline exceeding 4% due to concerns over global supply surplus and geopolitical tensions [6] - Both Brent and U.S. crude oil prices closed lower last week, with Brent settling at $61.12 per barrel and U.S. crude at $57.44 per barrel, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a minor consolidation phase for oil prices, testing the previous low around $56 [7] - The MACD indicator shows a lack of strong bearish momentum, but if the $56 support is broken, a downward trend may ensue [7] - Short-term price action is expected to remain within a narrow range of $56.80 to $58.10, with resistance at the upper boundary [7]

市场解读： 尽管美联储暗示在更多数据出炉前对进一步降息持谨慎态度，但投资者仍预计明年将有两次降息机会， 这为黄金提供了强劲的支撑。作为传统的避险资产，黄金在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，继续吸引资金 流入。投资者正密切关注本周即将公布的关键经济数据，特别是美国非农就业报告，将于12月16日发 布。这份报告涵盖了因政府停摆而延迟的10月和11月数据，可能提供更清晰的经济健康信号。 黄金技术分析： 黄金在本周原则上还是维持多头趋势不变，只要没有太大的变化，肯定还是要继续看涨黄金，并且前高 4380也仅一步之遥。周初看黄金的强势延续性。早盘开盘，黄金在4300之上，很明显，黄金保持绝对的 强势，按照上周五的4350/4257区间的震荡来看，暂时黄金保持这个大区间不变，尽量的在顺势中做多 看涨，但不破4350也要考虑二次见顶后的再次回落空间。 12月15日，上周五（12月12日）金价表现出色，现货黄金上涨0.48%，收报每盎司4300美元附近，盘中 最高触及4353美元/盎司，这是自10月21日以来的最高水平。美国期金也收涨0.4%，结算价达到4328.3 美元。这种上涨势头让黄金多头信心满满，尤其是在美联储上周第三次降 ...

12月15日，三大股指早盘小幅低开，而黄金板块逆势上涨。截至上午9:50，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.94%、黄金股ETF(159562)涨0.78%。相关成 分股赤峰黄金涨2.53%、中金黄金涨1.55%、湖南黄金涨1.23%，山东黄金、招金矿业等小幅跟涨。 消息面上，上周五金价表现出色，现货黄金上涨0.48%，收报每盎司4300美元附近。随着美联储第三次降息25个基点后，市场对宽松货币政策的 预期进一步升温。尽管美联储暗示在更多数据出炉前对进一步降息持谨慎态度，但投资者仍预期明年美联储进一步降低利率持乐观态度，这为黄 金提供了强劲的支撑。 展望后市，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青，国新政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。 从控制成本角度看，暂停增持黄金的必要性下降；从优化国际储备结构角度看，增持黄金的必要性上升。从优化国际储备结构、稳慎扎实推进人 民币国际化，以及应对当前国际环境变化等角度出发，未来央行增持黄金仍是大方向。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting cut rates, the silver price fell after accelerating its rise, and it is currently recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver, it is 13918 - 15000 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The Fed's unexpectedly dovish statement made the silver price strong, but the short - term exhaustion of positive factors after the interest - rate meeting means that the upward trend of silver has entered an acceleration phase. From a macro - driving perspective, the upward momentum of gold and silver is relatively weakened. The strong economic data will be a negative factor for the Fed's easing expectations in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The logic of tight overseas silver spot in December has significantly weakened. The de - stocking rate of COMEX silver has slowed down, and the LBMA silver inventory has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.84% to 972.76 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 2.28% to 14437.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4334.40 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 62.16 dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.19%, and the US dollar index was 98.38 [2]. - From December 5th to 11th, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 38.99 tons to 14177.5 tons. The LBMA silver inventory increased from 2.62 million tons at the end of October to 2.72 million tons, with a single - month inventory increase of 931.9 tons. The overseas one - month spot lease rate was 7.18%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years [2]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - For COMEX gold on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4329.80 dollars/ounce (up 0.48% from the previous day), the trading volume was 28.37 million lots (up 28.65%), the position was 47.20 million lots (up 2.60%), and the inventory was 1119 tons (down 0.41%) [5]. - For SHFE gold on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 970.66 yuan/gram (up 1.33% from the previous day), the trading volume was 36.65 million lots (up 20.20%), the position was 34.86 million lots (up 5.69%), and the inventory was 91.30 tons (unchanged) [5]. - For COMEX silver on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 62.09 dollars/ounce (down 2.95% from the previous day), the position was 15.33 million lots (down 3.98%), and the inventory was 14101 tons (down 0.54%) [5]. - For SHFE silver on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 14,892.00 yuan/kilogram (up 2.79% from the previous day), the trading volume was 276.66 million lots (up 7.11%), the position was 78.82 million lots (down 0.45%), and the inventory was 820.92 tons (up 5.17%) [5].

Group 1 - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] - Billionaires are optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024, and 34% favoring the Greater China market, significantly higher than 11% last year [5] - Over a five-year outlook, the percentage of respondents optimistic about the Greater China market rose from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [6] Group 2 - There has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the North American market, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024, primarily due to concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs [9] - 66% of respondents identified tariffs as the most likely negative factor affecting the market environment in the next 12 months, followed by geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [9] - Billionaires plan to increase investments in private equity, hedge funds, developed market equities, and emerging market equities, with 49% intending to increase exposure to private equity in the next 12 months, followed by hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [11]