Group 1 - A-shares market opened high and showed slight upward movement, with strong performance in sectors like communication equipment, electronic components, gaming, and semiconductors, while sectors such as shipbuilding, aviation, agriculture, and aerospace lagged behind [1] - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles, alternating between cyclical and technology sectors [1] - Since 2025, A-share indices have maintained a volatile upward trend, with November showing a pattern of channel consolidation followed by upward breaks and significant pullbacks [3] Group 2 - The fluctuation in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has impacted global equity markets, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and affecting the overall performance of global equity markets [3] - Despite recent adjustments in the technology and "anti-involution" sectors, the market is expected to remain in a "slow bull" trend, although short-term adjustments may require time to correct [3] - A-shares continued their rebound momentum with a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a warming market sentiment, but the current view remains one of oversold correction [3]

| 总量研究 2 | | --- | | 上周观点 2 | | 重点报告 2 | | 行业研究 4 | | 上周观点 4 | | 重点报告 5 | | 公司研究 6 | | 重点报告 6 | | 重点报告摘要 7 | | 总量研究 7 | | 行业研究 9 | | 公司研究 11 | 一周观点 总量研究 上周观点 | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然 | | | 策略 | 有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨 | 张宇生 | | | 幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于 | | | | 稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 | | | | 上周黄金价格上涨，国内权益市场指数集体回调,医药主题基金表现占优，TMT 主题基金回撤 | | | 金工 | 明显。不同投资范围的 ETF 资金均呈现流入，TMT、科创主题 ETF 受被动资金加仓，以恒生 | 祁嫣然 | | | 互联网 ETF 为代表的港 ...

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Short - term adjustments do not change the slow - bull trend of Chinese assets. Despite recent market corrections due to external factors, the "slow - bull" of Chinese assets is still expected under the support of domestic technology industries and "anti - involution" policies [1]. - In the economic situation with relatively large pressure, relevant incremental policies are still expected to be actively introduced, and the long - term and slow - paced bull market is likely to continue [2][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Recent stock market corrections have led to a large amount of funds flowing into ETFs on the decline. From November 17th to 21st, the entire market's equity ETFs received a net inflow of over 70 billion yuan, with over 40 billion yuan flowing in on November 21st alone. External factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increasing concerns about the AI bubble are the main reasons for the market correction, but the "slow - bull" of Chinese assets remains promising [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The three major US indices rebounded, while the index futures dropped significantly the previous trading day. The non - ferrous metals and power equipment sectors led the decline, with a market turnover of 1.98 trillion yuan. On November 20th, the margin trading balance decreased by 5.939 billion yuan to 2.474385 trillion yuan. The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be the long - term direction. The "strong weights, weak growth" pattern since November is the result of short - term trading rhythms, event disturbances, and capital defense needs. If overseas technology performance materializes and small - cap stocks complete their supplementary declines, the market style may return to balance. However, before policy and liquidity signals become clearer, large - cap value stocks may still dominate in the short term. With the end of the year approaching, funds are more cautious, and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter [2][12]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil futures fell 1.46% at night. US trade sanctions on Russian oil companies and Lukoil will take effect on Friday, and Lukoil must sell its large international asset portfolio by December 13th. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft for the Russia - Ukraine conflict from the US and is expected to discuss it with President Trump. The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on the interest - rate cut last month. Despite warnings about inflation, they still decided to cut rates. The overall downward trend is hard to reverse [4][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend on the night of last Friday, and the coking coal positions continued to decline. Last week, the output of refined coal from sample mines was basically flat, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume rebounded rapidly, exceeding last year's level. The supply side has recovered. The demand side showed that the output of the five major steel products increased last week, mainly contributed by building materials. The overall inventory decreased significantly, with the largest de - stocking in rebar. The overall apparent demand improved. However, the expectation of a decline in hot metal production still exists, and the short - term futures price is expected to correct. Attention should be paid to the changes in coking coal supply, steel de - stocking speed, and hot metal production trends [3][22]. 3. Daily News International News - The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit closed in Johannesburg, South Africa. South African President Ramaphosa thanked all parties for their support during South Africa's presidency of the G20 and emphasized that the summit successfully adopted the Leaders' Declaration, reflecting the G20's determination to maintain multilateral cooperation and promote common development in difficult global situations [7]. Domestic News - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Johannesburg. Li Qiang pointed out that developing a stable, sustainable, and high - quality comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Germany is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples. The two countries are important economic and trade partners, and the two governments should strengthen dialogue and communication to properly handle concerns. He hopes that Germany will adopt a rational and pragmatic policy towards China [8]. Industry News - Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, visited the headquarters of three central enterprises in Xiongan New Area. He said that the SASAC will support enterprises to stay, stabilize, and develop well in Xiongan. Enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, strengthen innovation - driven development, and contribute to the high - standard and high - quality construction of Xiongan [9]. 4. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.98% from 6,538.76 on November 20th to 6,602.99 on November 21st. The European STOXX 50 fell 0.40%, the FTSE China A50 futures dropped 2.66%, the US dollar index declined 0.07%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.08%, London gold spot decreased 0.30%, London silver dropped 1.29%, LME aluminum rose 0.05%, LME nickel increased 1.14%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 0.61%, ICE No. 2 cotton increased 0.24%, CBOT soybean meal rose 0.66%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.90%, CBOT wheat rose 0.18%, CBOT corn remained unchanged, LME zinc fell 0.38%, and CBOT soybeans rose 0.31% [11]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: Similar to the key varieties analysis, the long - term slow - bull trend is expected to continue [12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.812%. The central bank increased open - market operations this week, with a net injection of 43.4 billion yuan, an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and an additional roll - over of 500 billion yuan. The Shibor short - term varieties declined, and the market liquidity eased. The US government ended the "shutdown", and the Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest - rate cut in October. The current economic fundamentals are weak, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which is expected to support the treasury bond futures price. The main contract has shifted to the March 2026 contract [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is hard to reverse due to sanctions, peace - plan news, and Fed's interest - rate cut decisions [15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.5% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory decreased, but the expected import volume is large. Short - term methanol is expected to be weak [16]. - **Rubber**: Overseas rubber supply is increasing, while domestic supply will decrease as the domestic production area enters the off - season. The demand support is limited. The short - term price is expected to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are at a low level. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity weakness. The short - term valuation is low, and it is expected to continue the low - level oscillation [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures hit a low, with an increase in the inventory of glass production enterprises last week. Soda ash futures oscillated at a low level, with a decrease in the inventory of soda ash production enterprises. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious. The short - term glass supply adjustment needs time, and the soda ash supply - demand digestion pressure increases [19]. Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The demand in different sectors varies, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the smelting output continued to grow. The demand in different sectors is mixed, and the zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious, with the price likely to fluctuate within a range [21]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Similar to the key varieties analysis, the short - term price is expected to correct [3][22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean meal futures declined at night, while rapeseed meal was relatively strong. The USDA's supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean production and inventory, but the market expected more. The domestic bean meal supply is loose, and it is expected to adjust following the US soybean market [23]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil rose at night, while soybean and palm oils were weak. The MPOB report showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, but the inventory continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed raw materials is increasing, and the bio - diesel demand is expected to weaken. The short - term oils and fats are expected to be weak [24]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. The global sugar market is in a stocking phase, and the Brazilian sugar production is high. The domestic market follows the international trend, but the cost of the new domestic sugar - pressing season may support the price. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures were weak within a range. The Xinjiang cotton picking is almost over, and the market focus has returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to be weak [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 3.2% last Friday. The SCFI European line rate decreased, and the price cut by Maersk indicates that the price - support expectation in mid - November was false. Although there is an expectation of pre - Spring Festival rush in December and January, the current shipping companies' capacity control is limited, and the 02 - contract value is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of the OA Alliance [28].

Core Insights - The report suggests that the current market position may be the starting point of a long-term bull market, supported by gradual improvements in fundamentals and industry highlights [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of time over space in the current bull market, indicating that the duration of the bull market may be more significant than the magnitude of the increase [3][4] Industry Research Construction Materials - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1) Real estate chain recovery, emphasizing resilient consumer building material leaders like Dongfang Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials, which are expected to have greater profit elasticity amid rising demand for stock updates 2) Overseas growth, targeting companies with established advantages and mature operations abroad, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement 3) Corporate transformation, highlighting construction companies actively restructuring and innovating during industry downturns, like Shanghai Port and Hongrun Construction [10] Machinery Manufacturing - The investment strategy revolves around three major themes: 1) Cycle recovery in engineering machinery, with internationalization, electrification, and intelligentization opening new growth spaces 2) Data center power generation equipment, driven by increased electricity demand 3) Nuclear fusion, entering a phase of capital expenditure expansion with high technical barriers [11] Company Research Aidi Precision (603638.SH) - Aidi Precision reported revenue of 2.37 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the engineering machinery sector, with continued growth in demand for its hydraulic components and new products like industrial robots and RV reducers [12] NetEase-S (9999.HK) - NetEase's Q3 2025 game revenue fell short of expectations due to the deferral of income recognition - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 114.5 billion yuan for 2025, 123.6 billion yuan for 2026, and 132.2 billion yuan for 2027, with a focus on new game releases expected to contribute significantly in 2026 [13] Yidu Technology (2158.HK) - Yidu Technology has made progress in AI medical innovation, but revenue forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been reduced by 19.4% and 24.9% respectively - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.08 billion yuan in FY28, maintaining a "buy" rating despite the adjustments [14] NVIDIA (NVDA.O) - NVIDIA's FY26 Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with a projected GAAP net profit of $113.88 billion for FY2026 - The company has raised its FY2027-2028 net profit forecasts by 14.1% and 14.7%, driven by strong demand for AI computing [15] Lenovo Group (0992.HK) - Lenovo reported revenue of $20.452 billion for FY26 Q2, a 15% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising 25% - AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market, indicating a "slow bull" market trend for 2026, supported by various economic and policy factors [1]. Core Insights - The shift in China's policy focus towards stabilizing the economy and supporting private enterprises and the stock market is expected to lay a solid foundation for market stability [1]. - Innovations in sectors such as Deepseek technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are driving growth, alongside traditional industries like renewable energy and electric vehicles, enhancing export resilience [1]. - The central bank's liquidity injections and increased foreign investment are providing substantial support for the stock market, with overall trading volumes remaining high [1][4]. - Despite challenges from U.S. technology sanctions, China's negotiation leverage, particularly in rare earths, has led to better-than-expected outcomes in tariff negotiations, which is helping to stabilize investor confidence [1][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - Since September 2024, there has been a notable shift in policy to support the economy and stock market, including changes in real estate policy and enhanced support for private entrepreneurs [3]. - The introduction of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" and increased governance requirements for listed companies are part of this supportive framework [3]. Innovation and Growth - China is showcasing significant innovations in various fields, with a clear trend towards domestic substitution in technology and pharmaceuticals, while traditional sectors continue to grow [3][5]. - The ongoing advancements in AI and semiconductor industries are expected to create new growth points for the market [5]. Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The central bank's liquidity measures, including reverse repos, are facilitating a flow of funds into the stock market, with insurance and foreign capital increasing their positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4][10]. - The financing balance has reached historical highs but remains within historical averages, indicating no overheating in the market [11]. Geopolitical Considerations - The geopolitical risks are perceived as manageable, with clearer boundaries established in U.S.-China negotiations, which is fostering a more stable investment environment [6]. - The report suggests that addressing the issue of "involution" in various industries could significantly boost overall earnings per share (EPS) growth [6]. Market Performance Expectations - The report anticipates a 6% growth in A-share earnings for 2025, with further acceleration expected in 2026 due to improved profit margins and PPI influences [8][9]. - The overall sentiment among investors is expected to improve, driven by the influx of personal, leveraged, and institutional funds into the stock market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing significant turbulence, with A-shares declining sharply due to global market sentiment disturbances, particularly influenced by U.S. market movements [1]. Group 1: Market Weakness Reasons - The core reasons for market weakness stem from two aspects: the Federal Reserve signaling tightening measures and a reversal in interest rate cut expectations following strong non-farm payroll data [2]. - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that valuations in U.S. equities, corporate bonds, real estate, and leveraged loans are at historical highs, raising concerns about overvaluation and market overheating [2]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, leading to a reassessment of the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, asset management institutions are increasingly inclined to "lock in profits" as the year-end assessment approaches, leading to reduced positions and liquidity pressure [4]. - The combination of external market disturbances and tightening liquidity has triggered a rapid market correction, although the potential for further declines is considered limited [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Major indices have entered critical support zones, with technical indicators showing clear oversold signals, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is accumulating [5]. - The market has largely priced in the expectation of no interest rate cuts in December, and the upcoming Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference may provide signals for stable growth policies, potentially catalyzing a rebound [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The recommended strategy is to maintain a balanced allocation with a focus on technology sectors, which are expected to rebound strongly after recent corrections [9]. - Key sectors to watch include AI, new energy, defense, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside cyclical sectors that show improvement potential [9]. - High-dividend sectors, particularly state-owned enterprises and banks, are suggested as stable investments to hedge against short-term market volatility [9]. - Additionally, increasing exposure to consumer sectors is advised due to historical seasonal effects that may yield excess returns as policy expectations rise [9].

Market Overview - The market is currently in a bull phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase due to government guidance on a "slow bull" policy. In the short term, the market may lack strong catalysts, and investors may adopt a more cautious approach as the year-end approaches, leading to a focus on consolidation and accumulation [4]. Short-term Opportunities - The market has shifted from previous range-bound fluctuations to a continuous decline influenced by overseas trading sentiment. The artificial intelligence sector continues to adjust, while sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment have seen significant corrections. There may be short-term rebound opportunities in oversold sectors, but the overall market is expected to continue wide fluctuations. The main strategy during this phase should focus on dividend allocation [5]. Fixed Income Market - The convertible bond market and equity market both experienced declines this week. Since the beginning of 2025, both markets have been on an upward trend. Currently, the remaining duration of existing convertible bonds is shortening, and the number of quality individual bonds is decreasing. High-priced and overvalued convertible bonds may face adjustment pressure, making trading more challenging. It is recommended to assess bonds based on their terms and underlying stock conditions, and to pay attention to new bond opportunities in high-demand industries [6]. Oil and Gas Sector - The international oil price is under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, but OPEC+ has paused production increases, which may alleviate the global oversupply situation. The resilience of the "three major oil companies" during the oil price downturn highlights their ability to navigate through cycles. With expectations of a cold winter, there is potential for significant growth in natural gas demand, making the natural gas business of the "three major oil companies" particularly valuable [8]. Chemical Industry - The organic silicon industry is expected to improve due to the implementation of decisions made at industry conferences, which may enhance the competitive landscape. Recent trends in organic silicon prices and profitability indicate this improvement. In the medium to long term, steady growth in apparent consumption will support demand, while a slowdown in new capacity additions will ease supply pressures, leading to a more favorable industry outlook [8]. AI Healthcare Sector - Medical technology company achieved a revenue of 4.05 billion RMB for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 33%. The gross profit was 1.44 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 35.7%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year. Adjusted EBITA was 550 million RMB, showing a 14% increase compared to the previous year after excluding one-time gains. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million RMB, up 54% year-on-year [9]. Lenovo Group - Lenovo reported a revenue of 20.452 billion USD for FY26Q2, a 15% year-on-year increase. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 512 million USD, up 25% year-on-year. All business segments achieved double-digit growth, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue, an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [1] - The recent adjustments in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets may present opportunities for investors to reallocate towards equities, particularly in traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [1][5] - The market is currently experiencing a "three-phase overlap," characterized by a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a policy vacuum affecting performance [3] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and potentially rally in the coming months, with a focus on AI applications, robotics, and domestic consumption as key themes [2] - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are attributed to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end profit-taking, with expectations for a recovery following important policy meetings in December [5][10] - The current market environment is marked by high volatility, necessitating a focus on safety margins in investment strategies, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, textiles, and cyclical industries [4][11]

Group 1 - The market is still in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected due to external pressures and investor behavior [1][2] - A-shares have recently experienced adjustments due to a combination of external factors and internal pressures, with limited further downside expected [2][3] - The upcoming central economic work conference is anticipated to provide important policy guidance, influencing market sentiment [4] Group 2 - The current market environment is characterized by cautious sentiment and rapid sector rotation, with a focus on emerging industries and structural highlights [4][5] - There is an opportunity for investors to reallocate to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in light of the recent risk release [5][6] - The core trading logic for the upcoming spring market is expected to revolve around the expansion of AI industry trends and related applications [2][3]

本周市场出现连续调整，个股跌幅不小。很多投资者回顾今年业绩，最终盈利几乎归零，在这样一个全 年指数上涨接近20%的牛市里，这样的收益是明显低于预期的。 总结来看，主要有两个问题：第一是追涨杀跌。今年的行情往往每季度主攻行业不同，但全年来看，跑 赢上证指数的比例依然高达60%以上，那么大量的亏钱效应主要是追涨造成的。第二是不敬畏估值。追 涨的核心还是对估值不够敬畏，永远只看到上涨的股票，而不知道风险都是涨出来的，机会都是跌出来 的。此时投资者如果回顾全年的战役，相信值得很多人反思。 当下2025年已临近收官，此时的调整也预留了明年的空间，找到那些优质的、熟悉的、估值合理的股票 开始布局，保持耐心，相信2026年慢牛仍在路上。 (作者为爱建证券首席投顾) 本周全球股市出现震荡，各大媒体、自媒体都在分析调整的原因，无非是海外不确定性增加、科技泡沫 滋生、美联储降息放缓、基金漂移风格回归等，但在我们看来，一切都是借口而已，说到底，是估值有 点贵了。 前期美股的PE(市盈率)均值来到30倍以上，仅仅比2000年互联网泡沫略低一些，虽然英伟达、谷歌的季 报依然亮眼，但短期的性价比明显不高。资金都是极度聪明的，震荡调整在所 ...