晨报讯（南京晨报/爱南京记者 许崇静）近期A股市场表现如何？南京证券研究员周正峰表示，上周 （12月15日至19日），市场整体转为小幅调整，此前表现偏强的成长风格受到外围市场的影响而有所走 弱，沪指同样二次探底创近一个多月以来的新低后震荡回升，最终还录得周度小幅上扬，凸显当前市场 向下的风险整体可控，但向上也的确缺乏有效的催化和领涨主线。市场风格方面，行业风格涨跌分化， 金融、消费及周期风格收涨，成长及稳定风格出现一定的调整，而成长风格领跌两市。 投资策略上，尽管成长板块的行情持续性不足且存在内部分化的情况，但无疑市场关注的焦点仍在科技 成长板块上，不过近期海外市场相关科技龙头企业的走势相对疲弱，以及在融资层面遇到的一些阻碍也 的确放大了国内市场相关映射板块的波动，若海外市场能够企稳或者国内AI或半导体自主可控产业链 出现积极的信号，相关板块的修复又将卷土重来，在此之前市场可能还是不会大举介入相关的科技板 块，但从业绩确定性优势来看，相关板块若能有所调整，后续的配置性价比将明显增加，且有望成为明 年春季躁动行情的关键主线。市场整体走势延续震荡盘整的概率较大，或需等待更为明确的增量政策出 台或产业层面的利好催化 ...

Group 1 - A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively stable while the ChiNext Index is weaker due to a pullback in the technology manufacturing sector [1][11] - The consensus is forming around a potential "rally" in the market as liquidity expectations improve following key overseas events and a positive policy environment from the Central Economic Work Conference [12][13] - The market style is expected to shift towards small-cap and technology growth sectors during the "rally" window from late January to early March 2026, following a period of value-driven performance [12][13] Group 2 - The strong market performance on Wednesday may indicate the start of the 2026 cross-year market trend, supported by significant net subscriptions in stock ETFs [14] - Continued policy support and stable economic growth are anticipated to bolster market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [14] - The trend of high-net-worth individuals moving their deposits into the stock market is likely to continue, driven by lower expected returns from other asset classes [15] Group 3 - Incremental capital is entering the A-share market through broad-based ETFs, signaling positive market sentiment as investors prepare for the "spring rally" [16] - The technology and small-cap sectors are expected to perform actively as investors increase their positions [16] - The easing of "AI bubble" concerns and the resolution of liquidity uncertainties are providing a recovery opportunity for the market [17] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on three key areas: dividend value, high-growth sectors during the upcoming "rally," and active themes driven by policy and technology [18] - In a strengthening RMB environment, sectors such as aviation, gas, and paper are expected to benefit from cost advantages, while upstream resources and consumer goods may see profit margin improvements [20][21] - The non-bank financial sector, particularly insurance stocks, is showing increased elasticity and may outperform if policy catalysts emerge [21]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage strategy analysts remain optimistic about the spring market rally, awaiting an effective signal to initiate the movement [1] Group 1: Market Signals and Economic Indicators - Analysts from Xingzheng Strategy highlight that the liquidity expectations are shifting positively due to recent overseas events and a supportive domestic policy environment, indicating a transition from cautious behavior to actively seeking opportunities [1] - Key signals to watch for the potential market rally include the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions at the end of the year and early next year, with observation windows in early next week and January [1][2] - Important economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, social financing, and annual reports from listed companies are expected to uplift the basic economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The Guangfa Strategy team anticipates that 2026 will resemble an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside an acceleration in the migration of deposits from residents, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [1][2] - The trend of high-net-worth residents moving their deposits has already begun to accelerate, with new private equity fund registrations reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025, with monthly registration sizes nearing levels seen in 2021 [1][2] - The Xinda Strategy team emphasizes the increasing elasticity of non-bank financial sectors, suggesting a potential rotation of market focus from banks to non-bank financials, with insurance valuations appearing more attractive [1][3] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities and Predictions - Analysts suggest that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer services, are likely to see significant growth, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026 [2] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by policy guidance and industrial momentum, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The spring market rally is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of cyclical sectors, with a focus on commodities and consumer sectors benefiting from increased consumption and fiscal stimulus [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue a volatile structural trend in the short term due to seasonal liquidity tightening and fluctuating overseas monetary policy expectations, with rapid sector rotation [1] Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical window for year-end layout as 2026 approaches, which is the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Attention is drawn to the small fluctuations in the market around New Year's Day, indicating potential short-term trading opportunities [1] - The release of policy dividends is anticipated to be relatively early, with structural opportunities concentrated in sectors that resonate with policy guidance and industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The upcoming spring market rally is expected to be promising, driven by the structural opportunities identified [1]

短期关注防御性板块配置机会，同时布局明年政策红利与产业景气方向。（1）主线一：全球百年未遇 之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚变、 量子科技、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。（2）主线二：反内卷政策温和推进，供需结构优 化叠加价格回升预期带动下，制造业、资源板块盈利修复路径清晰。（3）辅助线一：扩大内需政策导 向下消费板块迎来布局窗口。（4）辅助线二：出海趋势将带动企业盈利空间进一步打开。 ②光大证券：市场有望震荡上行，关注成长及消费两个方向 光大证券指出，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。本周三市场的强力上涨或许标 志着2026年跨年行情已经开启。一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极 流入。政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。 A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计涨0.03%，深证成指累计跌0.89%，创业板指跌2.26%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么 说： ①银河证券：市场进入跨 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to favorable policy implementation and improved market sentiment. The Shanghai 50 Index performed the best with a gain of 0.3%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw a decline of 3.0%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 85.7 percentile since 2010 [1][11][12] - The retail, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective gains of 6.7%, 2.9%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.6% [1][13][19] Group 2 - Historically, the A-share market experiences a "spring rally" almost every year, driven by factors such as abundant liquidity at the year's end and optimistic policy expectations. Since 2012, there have been 13 instances of this rally, excluding 2022 [2][19] - Key catalysts for the spring rally include adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank, the release of important economic data, and significant meetings. These events provide new operational logic and upward momentum for the market [2][19][20] Group 3 - During the "spring rally" period from 2012 to 2025 (excluding 2022), major broad indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index had average gains of 21.0% and 20.7%, respectively. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well, with average gains of 22.2% and 21.3% during the same period [3][21][24] - Specific industries such as computers, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showed strong performance during the "spring rally," with average gains of 24.7%, 23.9%, and 22.7%, respectively [21][26] Group 4 - The 2026 cross-year market is expected to begin, with policies likely to continue supporting growth and various funds expected to flow into the market. This week, a strong market rally may indicate the start of this cross-year trend, particularly following a period of lackluster performance [4][29][30] - The central economic work conference has outlined a focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and promoting domestic demand, which is expected to bolster market confidence and attract long-term capital inflows [28][30] Group 5 - The growth and consumption sectors are highlighted for investment focus, with TMT and advanced manufacturing historically showing greater elasticity during the "spring rally." The current market environment suggests that the consumption sector may also attract attention due to its relatively low performance this year [5][35][42] - The consumption sector has lagged in performance this year, making it a potential target for "missed opportunity" funds. Recent performance indicates that sectors like retail and beauty care are beginning to show stronger gains [5][42][45]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both fell by 0.89% and 2.26% respectively. The market initially declined due to weak domestic economic data and expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but later stabilized and briefly surpassed 3900 points before retreating [1][3][14]. Economic Data Analysis - Economic data for November showed a general slowdown, indicating weak internal growth momentum. The industrial value added for November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by only 1.9% [10][11]. - Retail sales for November increased by only 1.3% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, primarily affected by weak commodity retail performance [10][11]. Financial Indicators - The total social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan year-on-year, but new RMB loans amounted to only 390 billion yuan, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [11][12]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, while the M1 money supply increased by 4.9%, indicating a decrease in the liquidity of funds and weak demand for real financing [12]. Policy Outlook - The report anticipates that expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will be key focuses of future policies, especially in light of the ongoing economic transition and external uncertainties. The necessity and possibility of "timely strengthening" monetary policy have increased, with expectations for further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [10][12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, machinery, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) for potential investment opportunities [15].

Group 1 - A-shares are experiencing a mixed performance with major indices showing divergence, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a range-bound movement supported by key levels [1] - The market is anticipated to improve liquidity and trading activity due to institutional reallocation and capital inflow as the year-end approaches, potentially initiating a spring rally [1] - The focus in the short term is on the selection of the new Federal Reserve chair and the implementation of domestic monetary and fiscal policies, with geopolitical risks easing [1] Group 2 - The market is influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which dampens expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to adjustments in U.S. stock indices [2] - The technology sector, which had previously rebounded, is currently underperforming, and there is a recommendation to control positions in the short term [2] - In the medium to long term, factors such as improved corporate performance, increased household savings entering the market, and global liquidity easing are expected to support a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026 [2]

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][6] - The A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17%, respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed strength, particularly in retail, which led the gains [2] - Aerospace stocks experienced significant activity, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Shengyang Technology, Tianjian Technology, and Shenjian Co., among others [2][3] - The lithium battery sector saw a decline, with notable drops in stocks such as Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source [4][5] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the aerospace, banking, and pharmaceutical sectors, while there were outflows from consumer electronics, securities, and semiconductors [8] - Specific stocks that attracted net inflows included Kaimete Gas, Zhaoyi Innovation, and China Satellite, with inflows of 770 million yuan, 723 million yuan, and 667 million yuan, respectively [8] - Conversely, stocks like Industrial Fulian, Ningde Times, and Yingweike faced significant sell-offs, with outflows of 2.443 billion yuan, 1.360 billion yuan, and 1.203 billion yuan, respectively [8] Institutional Insights - CICC suggests that the recent market pullback may provide a good opportunity for positioning ahead of the market trends expected in the first half of 2026 [10] - Huashan Securities notes that historically, January following a significant A-share rise tends to exhibit high volatility, indicating that the initiation of a spring rally remains to be observed [10] - Everbright Securities anticipates that the index will continue to exhibit a range-bound oscillation pattern [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant inflows into the A500 ETF market, indicating strong investor interest and potential market momentum [1] - On December 17, a total net inflow of 111.07 billion yuan was recorded across 40 ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index, showcasing robust market activity [1] - The A500 ETF from Huatai-PineBridge saw a net inflow of 32.83 billion yuan on the same day, with a cumulative inflow of 114.88 billion yuan for December, bringing its total size to 377.8 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF from Southern also experienced a substantial net inflow of 26.32 billion yuan, with a total of 117.56 billion yuan for December, resulting in a size of 331.5 billion yuan [1] - Other notable ETFs, including Guotai CSI A500 ETF and GF A500 ETF, each received over 10 billion yuan in net inflows, indicating widespread interest in this segment [1] Group 2 - Huazhong Securities suggests that the recent surge in broad-based ETFs reflects a growing expectation for market stabilization, although confirmation of a spring rally is still pending [2] - Historical analysis indicates that January following a significant rise in the A-share market often experiences high volatility, with notable fluctuations observed in previous years [2] - The report notes that in years where the Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 10%, the subsequent January typically saw significant market volatility, raising questions about the potential for a spring rally [2]