Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For sugar, wait until the northern hemisphere starts to finish squeezing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, then the international sugar price may rebound. Domestically, as the supply of imported sugar gradually decreases and the sugar price falls to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased on a weekly basis, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [13]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the oil price rose significantly yesterday. The domestic inventory of the three major oils has been decreasing on a weekly basis. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to experience seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contract may fluctuate weakly, while the far - end contract may continue to correct its valuation, so maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic, so maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. The far - end production capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of high fat - to - standard price differences, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand, so pay attention to the downside support after the price follows the decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5248 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The offer price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,670 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,183 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2767 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2287 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 1.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was reported at 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was reported at 2490 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from December and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8282 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9240 yuan/ton, down 222 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9380 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026, decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December 2025 were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally fell, with some areas experiencing relatively large declines. The price in Heishan remained at 3.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui dropped 0.23 yuan to 3.84 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, the supply of small eggs was slightly tight, the inventory was not large, the downstream demand was limited, the wholesale market sales slowed down, and the purchasing intention of traders weakened. Egg prices may continue to fall this week [18]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with some areas being weak. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 12.52 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.16 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farmers slowed down, the slaughter volume decreased, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the procurement difficulty increased, and the pig price mainly rose under the situation of supply less than demand. The supply pressure in a few southern regions was relatively large, and the pig price was stable. It is expected that the pig price will be mainly strong today [21].

"惊魂一夜" ◎记者 霍星宇 1月29日晚，全球金属市场经历了"惊魂一夜"。当晚11点之前，还是黄金、白银、有色金属的"集体狂 欢"；11点之后，风云突变，全球主要金属品种合约集体跳水，几乎回吐此前全部涨幅，演绎了惊心动 魄的"过山车"行情。 也就在这一晚，有着10年交易经验的林先生在最高点"落袋为安"，成功"逃顶"。 林先生告诉记者，他持仓了30多个期货品种，其中有色金属板块持仓了铜、锡、镍、锌等品种。据他观 察，夜盘商品总体表现偏弱，白天多头较强的品种晚上往往低开，尤其是铜和化工板块表现明显。因 此，他除了沪铜长期持有外，其余夜盘低开的品种往往开盘就平仓，第二天再重新补仓。 "因为这段时间我一直秉持这种判断，因此在29日晚多头情绪非常强烈的情况下还是以减仓为主。虽然 当晚金银铜一度表现强势，沪银一度站上3万元关口上方，但晚上11点左右沪银急速跳水，跌至3万元以 下，原油主力合约也开板了。于是，我判断此时平仓第二天再入场踏空可能性较小，便把黄金、白银先 平仓了。" "随后，有色金属板块也开始整体回落，从风险控制的角度出发，我索性就把镍、锡、锌全在高位平仓 了。"林先生说他当晚唯一遗憾的是，铜在高位时并未及时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short - term, asphalt is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend, and the arbitrage suggestion is mainly reverse arbitrage. The supply of asphalt is at a low level, and there may be a shortage of raw materials in the future. Although the demand is weak, there is some stocking and arbitrage demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have available raw material inventories before March, and the asphalt supply will be tight at the end of the month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt planned production is 193.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 5.80% week - on - week to 214,500 tons. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operation will remain at a low level [1]. - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined this week. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 14%. The rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is stocking and arbitrage demand. Southern projects are gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The Asian sales price of Venezuelan oil has risen [1]. - Price and basis: The asphalt price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract has risen to - 164 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.38% to 3,424 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,407 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,554 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 24,185 to 145,873 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but is still negative [4]. - Demand side: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 6.0%, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 30, most downstream operating rates of asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

现货白银失守108美元/盎司，日内跌8.22%。 （来源：科创100ETF基金） 涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> （来源：科创100ETF基金） 现货白银失守108美元/盎司，日内跌8.22%。 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows a strong expectation of demand improvement. Although the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival and the auction performance is average, the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal, and the coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. The relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy for real - estate enterprises is beneficial to the real estate and upstream industries. The coking coal futures contract is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1165.0 yuan/ton, up 2.69% from the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1723.0 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the opening of the day session. In last night's session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1193.0 yuan/ton, up 2.40% from the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important News - On January 28, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the purchase price of coke for the first round. The price of wet - quenched coke was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke was raised by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on January 30, 2026 [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 823.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.4%; the total inventory was 1278.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.43 million tons, an increase of 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 801.74 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0% [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.978 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 5.496 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 million tons [1] - According to Mysteel's research on the Spring Festival shutdown of 95 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, most of them will shut down in February. Among them, the number of shut - down steel mills from February 1 to February 8 is the largest, reaching 44, accounting for 47.83%, close to half [1] 3.3 Market Logic - India has listed coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As the world's second - largest steel producer with rapid steel production expansion, India's domestic coking coal production cannot meet its demand and it relies on Australian imports. At the end of last December, the Indian government imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke imported from six countries including China, which further drives up the demand for domestic coking coal [1] - In the domestic market, the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the auction performance is average. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. Macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and upstream industries. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will reduce production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract has risen strongly, with short - sellers significantly reducing their positions for two consecutive days, driving long - sellers to increase their positions and the price to rise last night. It is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 玻璃 空头优势增强 宝城期货 闾振兴 图为玻璃期货 2605 合约多空前 20 席位持仓变化 值得注意的是，当日多空排行榜前 20 席位中，只有 1 家进行多翻空操作。中辉期货席位在减持 301 手多单的同时增持 5 手空单。这反映出上述席位的交易者认为后市玻璃企稳反弹动力不足，部分增持空单。 采取空翻多操作的席位也只有 1 家。数据显示，方正中期席位在减持 1549 手空单的同时增持 802 手 多单，表明上述席位认为玻璃期价有望企稳反弹。 昨日，在玻璃期货 2605 合约多空排行榜前 20 席位中，由于多头席位减持而空头席位增持，导致净空 头寸扩大至 193870 手，表明空头优势有所增强。预计后市玻璃期货维持震荡偏弱的走势。 发表于 2026.1.29 期货日报第六版 昨日，玻璃期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱，略微收低的走势，盘中期价最低下探至 1054 元 /吨，最高收涨至 1076 元/吨。收盘报 1067 元/吨，跌幅为 0.56%。持仓略微增加 60 手，至 1205109 手。 交易所多空持仓排行榜前 20 席 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In the short - term, the futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, showing a strong trend. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will still limit the price rebound space. Therefore, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash futures contract opened higher and strengthened during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed an opening horn, indicating a short - term oscillating and slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous secondary high, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 331,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,400 lots. The intraday high was 1225, the low was 1193, and the closing price was 1224, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.6% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and transactions were mainly based on low - price restocking [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month from 86.42% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30,090 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the consumption was mainly based on inventory and low - price rigid demand purchasing [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of thermal coal oscillated downward, and the cost decreased slightly [3] Main Logic Summary - The high capacity utilization rate and the release of new production capacity lead to an increase in overall output. The resumption of a glass production line has slightly increased the rigid demand for soda ash. The short - term futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, but the high inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a unilateral strategy of oscillating upward, a positive spread arbitrage for UR05 - 09 when the price difference is low, and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market is oscillating upward due to sentiment, with good spot trading and low pressure on pre - holiday orders. Attention should be paid to the policy - guided price ceiling for spot prices. In January, supply increased as some gas - based and technologically - upgraded enterprises resumed production. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers continued, and compound fertilizer production and melamine production also increased their demand. Factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories remained stable. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, and India is expected to issue another tender. The export quota in China has no new news, and attention should be paid to export dynamics, the pace of off - season reserves release, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 28, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1799 yuan/ton (+9). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1780 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was - 39 yuan/ton (-9), in Henan was - 39 yuan/ton (+1), and in Jiangsu was - 19 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 28, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 86.39% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.49 million tons (-0.11 million tons), while the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 195 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 951 yuan/ton (-14) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose, and India is expected to issue another tender. The current export quota in China has no new news [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 28, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 63.65% (+1.47%), and the number of pre - received order days for urea enterprises was 6.59 days (+0.71) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The overall urea factory inventory decreased slightly this week, remaining basically flat, and the port inventory remained unchanged [2]