Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 27 - 31, 2025 [1] - Reported futures varieties: Rebar and iron ore [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly rebar production is 2.07 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.16 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.84 million tons, and social inventory is 6.53 million tons [7] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and a grid number of 14 [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: Implement a large - grid trading strategy as the contract enters a sideways consolidation range [11] - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [12] 3. Relevant Data - Includes variety diagnosis and selected indicator data (not detailed in the given text) [21][23] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a sideways consolidation stage [30] - Trend judgment logic: Global iron ore shipments last week were 3.333 billion tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2.519 billion tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 9.079 billion tons, and domestic major ports' inventory was 14.423 billion tons [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy during the consolidation stage [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The mid - term price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: Implement a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and a grid number of 14 [34] 3. Relevant Data - Includes variety diagnosis and selected indicator data (not detailed in the given text) [45][47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental valuation of urea is low. Without further adjustments to export policies, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term internal drive of the industry is weak, and both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is weak. The production cost of gas - based enterprises cannot effectively support the price at present. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new export quotas. Macro factors also need to be monitored [2]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. In the absence of export policy adjustments, it will accumulate inventory in Q4. Industry internal drive is weak, and demand from compound fertilizer and industry is sluggish, leading to a weak medium - term trend. Gas - based production costs can't support prices. New export quotas and macro factors should be watched [2]. - For the near - term, although new delivery warehouses are added, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. With the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, a reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread is appropriate. The 01 contract still has a premium due to autumn fertilizer expectations [5]. - For the long - term, domestic daily urea production fluctuated between 19.5 - 20.1 million tons around holidays, then dropped to around 19.5 million tons. Inventory increased after the holiday, and demand, especially agricultural demand, is weak [10][20]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Urea will fluctuate weakly. The price range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750. Short at prices above 1750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [12]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, contracts 11, 12, 01 have a weak unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to when pre - holiday price cuts for order collection increase. Contracts 02, 03, 04, 05 are strong due to peak - season demand expectations. For spread strategies, the upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread. No hedging arbitrage strategy is recommended [13][14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1st, with the opening on October 15th and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and low prices may attract spontaneous reserves [16]. - **Negative Information**: Urea daily production has been above 19 million tons this year, and inventory pressure is high. Market confidence is lacking due to falling prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [17][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 19th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng of the State Council agreed with the US to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held next week, and it is an important time - point for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [19]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume and Capital Analysis - Domestic daily urea production fluctuated around 19.5 - 20.1 million tons around holidays and then dropped to around 19.5 million tons. Inventory increased after the holiday, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand in Shandong and Henan is postponed due to rain, and compound fertilizer factories have large - scale shutdowns. The impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculation has weakened, and downstream procurement willingness is low [20]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that export growth cannot offset the weakening domestic demand, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1% [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high, short urea futures, buy put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy urea futures, sell put options [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal data of urea's production costs (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) and production profits (water - coal - slurry gasification, fixed - bed) [31][34][36]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report shows the seasonal data of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, and capacity utilization of different production methods (coal - based, natural - gas) [40][42]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides the seasonal data of China's urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) [44][46][48]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal data of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit, as well as the data of melamine's production profit, capacity utilization, and market price in different regions [50][52][56]. 4.5 Spot Sales and Production Tracking - The report shows the seasonal data of urea's average sales and production, and sales and production in different regions (Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, East China) [74][76].

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Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 yuan. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [8][9]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 yuan. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The industrial silicon futures are in a large - range operation. The spot price was stable last week. As of October 24, the 421 price was 9,100 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI report shows the price is in a sideways phase, and the main force has a bearish attitude. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 yuan [8][9]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week and this week, the strategy is to buy on dips as the industrial silicon is in a large - range operation [12][13]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [15][19]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range operation. The spot price rose last week. As of October 24, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,600 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade was 76,150 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a sideways phase, and the main force has no obvious long - short bias. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 yuan [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week and this week, the strategy is to buy on dips as the lithium carbonate is in a large - range operation [35]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment and the stop - fall and rebound of crude oil, polyolefins follow the crude oil trend. Currently, the supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillatory rebound trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6969, 7021, and 7050 respectively, with changes of - 30, - 23, and - 8, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.43%, - 0.33%, and - 0.11%. The trading volumes were 229753, 23556, and 105, and the open interests were 529187, 62588, and 1136, with changes of - 2302, 182, and 7 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 52, - 29, and 81, compared to previous values of - 45, - 14, and 59 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6662, 6719, and 6728 respectively, with changes of - 29, - 21, and - 6, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.43%, - 0.31%, and - 0.09%. The trading volumes were 229145, 19734, and 517, and the open interests were 608100, 126861, and 6141, with changes of - 10384, 281, and 106 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 57, - 9, and 66, compared to previous values of - 49, 6, and 43 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2295 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7150 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 7100 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (October 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.5 per barrel, down $0.29 or 0.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.21 - $62.59. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.94 per barrel, down $0.05 or 0.08% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.41 - $66.78 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas. The warehouse receipt was 2416 lots. The overseas price soared. The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. With chemical demand support and the expectation of warming combustion demand, it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, civil gas continued to rebound slightly. East China was 4279 (+12), Shandong was 4360 (+20), and South China was 4405 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 94 (-45), and the November - December spread was 68 (-52). FEI and CP increased, reaching 492 (+6) and 455 (+1) US dollars per ton respectively [4] 3.2 Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 69 (-49), the November - December spread was 90 (-47), and the December - January spread was 113 (-1). The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas price soared; the FEI monthly spread was - 6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17); PG - FEI reached 79 (-33). FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased; supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of warming combustion demand. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume. Overall, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-side crude oil is short-term bullish, and TA valuation drivers are mostly positive. Supply and demand are generally weak and stable, and the technical aspect rebounds from oversold conditions following crude oil [5]. - In terms of operations, reduce and then hold a small amount of previous short positions. The resistance level for the 2601 contract is around 4550 - 4650 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a 0.42 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.83 percentage point decrease year-on-year, at a neutral level compared to the same period. During the week, the increase in production at Yisheng New Materials was higher than the decrease at Yisheng Ningbo. Newly commissioned production capacity this year is 5.7 million tons. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of 3 million tons by Xin Fengming in the fourth quarter [5][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 140,560 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week and a 0.96% increase year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 18,300 tons, a 34.31% increase year-on-year. As domestic self-sufficiency gradually improves, imports are low and can be basically ignored [24]. 3.2 Demand - In September 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9116 million tons, a 0.58% decrease from the previous month and a 7.25% increase year-on-year. Last week, the polyester operating rate was 87.53%, a 0.25 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 0.94 percentage point decrease year-on-year, generally at a neutral level compared to the same period [26]. - Last week, the polyester industry's output was 1.5497 million tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week and a 4.13% increase year-on-year. As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, a 2.39 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 2.27 percentage point decrease year-on-year. According to Longzhong, the terminal performance is mediocre, downstream purchases are mostly for rigid demand, and the sales performance of polyester filament factories is average [5][29]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.8739 million tons, a 16.07% decrease year-on-year. From January to September, the cumulative textile export value was $220 million, a 0.45% decrease year-on-year [47]. 3.3 Inventory - According to Longzhong statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was approximately 3.1413 million tons, a 1.58% decrease from the previous week. The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a 0.01-day decrease from the previous week and a 0.31-day decrease year-on-year. The polyester product line also saw inventory reduction [5][51]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 6.95 days, a 0.4-day decrease from the previous week and a 1.4-day decrease year-on-year [52]. 3.4 Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened slightly week-on-week and was slightly higher year-on-year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable week-on-week and was higher year-on-year. The overall futures inter-month spread showed a slightly contango structure with near-term prices lower and far-term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable week-on-week and was weak year-on-year. The basis weakened slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [16]. 3.5 Valuation - PX prices rebounded, and PTA processing fees also rebounded. The PTA spot processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was the weakest in recent years compared to the same period. The futures contract processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [64][71][75]. - The profits of PTA downstream products showed different trends, with some products' production margins fluctuating [72][76][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Cost - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Cautiously bullish; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: PTA supply - demand changes are small, with expected inventory accumulation. Crude oil and the PTA - Brent oil spread are at relatively low levels, and there is limited downward space in the short term. The far - month is expected to be better than the near - term. The spot market is weak, and the cost side is neutral. There is inventory accumulation pressure from November to December [5][59]. - PX: PTA has planned production capacity, PX supply - demand is acceptable, the spot market is tight, PXN has recovered, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. It will follow the cost in the short term. The supply - demand balance pressure from October to November is not large, and the inventory is not high [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The price of the ethylene glycol industry chain is at a low level. The supply is difficult to clear, and there is a lack of short - term supply - demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions. There is inventory accumulation pressure from October [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is in progress as planned. YS New Material has restarted, YS Ningbo reduced its load due to weather, Hengli 1 is under maintenance, and YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Dushan's new device has a trial - run plan next week, and Dushan 1 has a maintenance plan [46][59]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217.6 tons, up 1.6 tons. The market basis is weakly stable [50]. - **Balance Sheet**: In October, it is balanced, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure from November to December. The valuation is not high, the cost is weak, and the fundamentals are weak [58][59]. - **Demand**: As of October 17, the polyester operating rate was 91.4%, remaining at a high level. The operating rate assessment for October - November is 91.5% (+0.5%) and 90% (+1%). After the holiday, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable at 80%, 69%, and 78%. Autumn and winter orders are acceptable [59]. PX - **Device Changes**: The domestic PX load is 84.9%, and the Asian load is 78%. Wushi Petrochemical is under planned maintenance, Yangzi Petrochemical and Hengli slightly reduced their loads, and Shenghong Petrochemical slightly increased its load. Overseas, FCFC in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons) is under maintenance, and PTTG has a maintenance plan in late October [81][86]. - **Balance Sheet**: In the fourth quarter, the PX balance remains low, the spot floating price has slightly improved, and PXN has recovered. It will follow the cost in the short term [86]. - **Market Conditions**: The spread between the PX outer and inner markets has narrowed, the PX 11 - January spread is weak, and the TA01 processing fee is weak [87]. Ethylene Glycol - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic load is 77.16%, and the synthetic - gas - based load is 81.89%. CNOOC Shell has restarted after maintenance, Fulian is under maintenance, Shenghong has a maintenance plan in the second half of the month, and Yulong has restarted at 60% capacity. Some coal - chemical devices are under maintenance or restarted. Overseas, Formosa Plastics' No. 1 plant in Taiwan, China, Maoming Petrochemical, and Shell in the US and Canada are under maintenance [100][117]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the port inventory in East China was about 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons. The arrival volume is moderately low, and the short - term port inventory is expected to remain stable with a slight decline. The polyester factory's raw - material inventory days are 12.5 days (-0.3) [127]. - **Balance Sheet**: In October, it is in a loose balance, and inventory accumulates rapidly from November to December. The market lacks upward drivers and is weak in the short term [129][132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: Crude oil's strength boosts raw sugar sentiment. Zheng sugar's rebound may face pressure due to increased industrial hedging. For paper pulp, supply remains high, and terminal demand improvement is limited, so the rebound height may be restricted. Double - offset paper has limited demand improvement in the peak season and supply pressure, with limited cost support. Cotton prices are affected by Sino - US trade news and may fluctuate in a range. - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector: New - season apples have small fruit sizes and low premium fruit rates, supporting far - month contracts. Red dates' prices are recommended for short - selling for aggressive investors and anti - spread strategies for cautious investors [3][4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, a bullish view is recommended due to small fruit sizes and low premium fruit rates, with a support range of 7900 - 8000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9600. For Red Dates 2601, short - selling at high prices is advised, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: Sugar 2601 suggests range - bound operations with a support range of 5350 - 5370 and a pressure range of 5470 - 5500. Pulp 2601 is recommended for range - bound short positions, with a support range of 4900 - 4900 and a pressure range of 5200 - 5300. Double - offset paper 2601 recommends short - selling on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500. Cotton 2601 advises holding short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, up 3.50% month - on - month and down 6.32% year - on - year. In the spot market, prices in different regions showed different trends. Shandong's acquisition price was higher than last year, while Shaanxi's price was stable at a high level. Sales in the distribution areas were stable [19]. - **Red Dates Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9167 tons, down 36 tons from last week, a 0.39% month - on - month decrease and a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention is paid to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [22]. - **Sugar Market**: The sugar mills in the border area of Karnataka and Maharashtra in India started the crushing season. Datagro predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production will be about 41.42 million tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous season. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase [23]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered imported NBSK at $650/ton, but sellers refused. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at $680 - 700/ton. A major Brazilian supplier will raise the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to Asian markets by $20/ton [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In different markets such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the mainstream transaction prices of double - offset paper were stable. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no sign of improvement [27]. - **Cotton Market**: By early October 2025, Australia's cotton processing was about 95% complete, and the inspection progress was about 90%. In September 2025, China's cotton yarn exports were 19,400 tons, a 32.5% year - on - year increase and a 0.8% month - on - month increase. China will hold economic and trade consultations with the US in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: Apple 2601 closed at 8830, up 36 (0.41%); Red Dates 2601 closed at 11165, down 100 (- 0.89%); Sugar 2601 closed at 5457, up 31 (0.57%); Pulp 2511 closed at 4862, up 8 (0.16%); Cotton 2601 closed at 13575, up 40 (0.30%) [31]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of various commodities showed different changes. For example, the apple price was 3.75 yuan/jin, the red date price was 9.40 yuan/kg, and the sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summarized content, only relevant charts are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple's 1 - 5 spread is - 513, with a month - on - month decrease of 54 and a year - on - year decrease of 123, predicted to decline in a volatile manner, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. - Red dates' 9 - 1 spread is 50, with a month - on - month increase of 125 and a year - on - year decrease of 350, predicted to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar's 1 - 5 spread is 49, with a month - on - month increase of 6 and a year - on - year increase of 28, predicted to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton's 1 - 5 spread is - 25, with a month - on - month increase of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 60, predicted to fluctuate in a range, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summarized content, only relevant charts about the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long/short changes of each commodity are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year changes. - Red dates have 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year changes. - Sugar has 8196 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 117 and a year - on - year decrease of 1460. - Pulp has 226002 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 267 and a year - on - year decrease of 164284. - Cotton has 2526 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 39 and a year - on - year decrease of 1089 [81]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Options - related Data No specific summarized content, only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility of apples, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.