1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: SPPOMA's sharp decline in the first 25 - day production increase and the growth in the first 25 - day exports will limit the downside of the market, but the domestic Dalian palm oil futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend due to weak Malaysian palm oil performance and rising domestic port inventories [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are deteriorating. The domestic soybean arrival is large, the factory's开机率 is rising, and the inventory is increasing. Spot soybean oil will continue to be weaker than futures, and the basis quote is expected to decline [1]. Meal - Two - meal futures in the domestic market are fluctuating. The spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil is being realized. The domestic soybean arrival will be abundant in the future, but the oil mill's meal inventory is low, and the basis is at a low level. The two - meal is expected to maintain a fluctuating structure [2]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded. Although the improvement in supply and demand is limited, due to the reduction in the supply of breeding groups at the end of the month and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand, the price has rebounded slightly. The 09 contract has rebounded following the spot, and the market is expected to neither fall sharply nor have strong upward momentum [4][5]. Corn - The short - term corn market is trading quietly, with no obvious unilateral driving force, and will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation. The market is more concerned about the wheat listing and price changes. In the long - term, the tightening supply and increased breeding demand will support the price [7]. Sugar - The supply outlook for the 25/26 sugar season is optimistic, and the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a risk of falling below 17 cents/lb. The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the expected increase in future imports [10]. Cotton - The downstream of the cotton industry has rigid demand resilience, and the spot basis of raw - material cotton is firm, providing strong support for the price. However, the long - term demand expectation is not strong, and there is no strong upward driving force. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [12]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a certain negative impact on the price. The demand may first decrease and then increase, which is the main factor affecting the price fluctuation. The national egg price may first fall and then rise this week, with a small adjustment range [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On May 26, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from May 23; the futures price of Y2509 was 7530 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the basis was 590 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is expected to decline [1]. - **Palm oil**: On May 26, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8520 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from May 23; the futures price of P2509 was 7920 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the basis was 600 yuan/ton, down 7.12%. The domestic futures market is weak and volatile [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On May 26, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9610 yuan/ton, unchanged from May 23; the futures price of 01509 was 9026 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the basis was 584 yuan/ton, up 7.35% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread have changed to varying degrees, reflecting the relative price relationship between different varieties [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 was 2950 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the basis was - 10 yuan/ton, down 225.00%. The cost of domestic soybean meal is under pressure due to Brazilian supply [2]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 was 2566 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the basis was - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread, have all changed [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract price was 830 yuan/ton, up 8.50%; the price of live pigs 2507 was 13260 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; the price of live pigs 2509 was 13600 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions have rebounded to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.42%, the white - strip price decreased by 100.00%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2507 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the import profit increased by 2.80%. The market is affected by factors such as wheat and supply and demand [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 was 2653 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; the basis increased by 37.04%. The profit of Shandong starch decreased by 6.49% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.11%, the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.03%, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.40% [10]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming changed slightly. The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the industrial inventory decreased [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 was 13385 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13435 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Xinjiang and other regions changed slightly. The commercial and industrial inventories decreased month - on - month, and the export volume of textile products changed to varying degrees [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3766 yuan/500KG, up 0.11%; the price of the egg 06 contract was 2762 yuan/500KG, up 0.22% [13]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.19%, and the base increased by 42.40%. The egg - chicken chick price was unchanged, and the culled - chicken price decreased by 1.92% [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - Palm oil is the largest vegetable oil in terms of production, consumption, and international trade, accounting for over 30% of total vegetable oil production. The main production countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which together account for 87% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil consumption is expected to reach 77.22 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [5][29][35] Market Background - Palm oil production is primarily concentrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with Indonesia producing 46 million tons (59% of global production), Malaysia 18.7 million tons (24%), and Thailand 3.33 million tons (4%) in 2024. The total global palm oil production is projected to be 78.25 million tons [29][35] - Global palm oil consumption is concentrated in Asia and Europe, with Indonesia consuming 23.28 million tons (30%), India 8.8 million tons (11%), China 4.6 million tons (6%), and the EU 3.85 million tons (5%) in 2024 [35][39] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply is recovering, with Malaysia's palm oil production increasing by 12% year-on-year in April. However, long-term production growth potential is limited due to declining planting areas and aging oil palm trees in Malaysia. Indonesia's biodiesel policy is expected to drive consumption growth [6][57][66] - The demand for palm oil is supported by the biodiesel market, particularly in Indonesia, where domestic consumption has risen significantly due to biodiesel policies. The B40 policy is expected to add 2-3 million tons of palm oil consumption annually [66]

数据显示，5月23日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价9613.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（9391.00 元/吨）升水222.75元/吨。 （5月23日）今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 5月23日，加拿大菜油(6月船期)1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(8月船期)1030美元/ 吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至5月18日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周增加37.38%至17.86 万吨，之前一周为13.0万吨。 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等级:三级 ; | 福建厦门 | 9380元/吨 | 市场价 | 福建省/厦门市 | 福建厦门市场 | | 等级:三级 ; | 安徽六安 | 9600元/吨 | 市场价 | 安徽省/六安市 | 安徽六安市场 | | 等级:三级 ; | 广东东莞 | 9430元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省/东莞市 | 广东东莞市场 | | 等级:三级 ; | 安徽合肥 | 9550元/吨 | 市场价 | 安徽省/合肥市 ...

Report Overview - The report is a May 23, 2025, morning report on agricultural products by Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1][3] Soybeans/Meal Core Information - Thursday saw US soybeans oscillate and close slightly higher. The new US soybean balance sheet may trend tighter under scenarios of eased trade - wars and stable production. Argentina's local production damage and excessive rainfall in US soybean - growing areas this week may support prices, but favorable rainfall in sown areas limits gains. US soybean - growing areas may face more rainfall in the central part in the next two weeks, affecting sowing. Brazilian farmers have sold over 60% of their soybeans, and the USDA expects only small increases in Brazil and Argentina's new - crop production, while US soybean production may decline slightly by 700,000 tons [3] - According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The oil mill operating rate was 63.87% yesterday, with 340,900 tons in transactions [3] Trading Strategy - Near - term, the domestic soybean supply is relatively large, but the valuation is low. US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel policies and production changes. The cost range of far - month soybean meal like 09 is currently 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton [3][5] Oils and Fats Core Information - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%, with a 22.31% increase in the first 10 days, 8.5% in the first 15 days, and 3.72% in the first 20 days. The export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, but is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days and 1.55% - 5.25% in the first 20 days. As of the week of May 18, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 37.38% to 178,600 tons [7] - Malaysia's palm oil stocks increased significantly in April. However, palm oil has some support due to low stocks in Indonesia, India, and China. If the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly in the medium term, oil prices will face pressure. US biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations [8][10] Trading Strategy - Oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Negative factors include the downward - trending crude oil center, obvious palm oil production recovery, and potentially under - expected US biodiesel policies. Positive factors are the low stocks of palm oil in Indonesia and India and rapeseed in Canada, which provide some support to origin quotes [11] Sugar Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The closing price of the September contract was 5885 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions also declined slightly. As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 79 from 86 the previous week, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 3.1474 million tons from 3.5195 million tons [13] Trading Strategy - The international sugar market's tightest supply phase may have passed. In the domestic market, although the current production and sales are good, cheaper basis - priced sugar enters the market as the futures price drops. With the opening of the import profit window, future import supplies will increase, and sugar prices are likely to weaken [14] Cotton Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the September contract was 13430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 40 yuan/ton. Brazil's cotton exports in the first three weeks of May were 101,600 tons, with an average daily export volume 15.44% lower than in May last year. As of May 18, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, up from 28% the previous week [16] Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, boosting market confidence. Fundamentally, although the peak season has passed, the downstream operating rate increased slightly last week. The import window is basically closed, accelerating inventory depletion, and the 9 - 1 contract spread shows a positive arbitrage. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly and may fill the upper gap [17] Eggs Core Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in main production areas dropped 0.04 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and downstream procurement is cautious, with some inventory levels remaining high [18] Trading Strategy - With continuous increases in supply, small - sized eggs are significantly discounted compared to large - sized eggs. Market confidence is poor, inventory accumulates repeatedly, and spot prices are under pressure. Maintain the strategy of short - selling near - month contracts like 06 and 07 on rebounds and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts like 09 when positions are large [19] Pigs Core Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.24 yuan to 14.35 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.13 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg. Farms have high slaughter enthusiasm, but downstream follow - up is weak [20] Trading Strategy - Spot prices fluctuate within a narrow range and show signs of weakening. Although the weight is accumulating, considering low frozen - product and second - fattening pen occupancy, significant short - term declines are unlikely. Near - month contracts should focus on the basis regression method, while the medium - term strategy for far - month contracts is to short - sell on rebounds, but pay attention to the impact of spot prices and basis [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may approach 4,000 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will likely range - bound with a chance of briefly rising to 8,200. [1] - CBOT soybean oil is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are deteriorating, and the spot basis will likely decline. [1] Meal - Due to the impact on Argentine soybeans and the rise of US soybeans, domestic meal prices follow. With sufficient supply expected, the basis of meal stabilizes, and the support for soybean meal at around 2,900 strengthens. [2] Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is below 14,000, with limited room for significant decline or sharp rise. [4][5] Corn - In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate narrowly, while in the long - term, they are expected to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips. [8] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the early harvest is slow, but the 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest. Domestic sugar supply is abundant, and prices are expected to remain volatile. [12] Cotton - Domestic cotton prices may range - bound after a short - term rise, and further increases depend on downstream improvement. [14] Eggs - National egg supply is sufficient, and prices may first fall and then rise slightly this week. [16] 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On May 21, compared with May 20, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.58%, and the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 1.09%. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market decreased by 4.65%, and the 09 - 01 soybean oil spread decreased by 42.86%. [1] Meal - **Price Changes**: The price of soybean meal futures (M2509) increased by 1.56%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) increased by 1.67%. [2] - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 soybean meal spread increased by 3.03%, and the 09 - 01 rapeseed meal spread increased by 5.29%. [2] Livestock (Pigs) - **Price Changes**: The spot price of pigs in most regions decreased slightly, and the 09 contract price decreased by 0.29%. [4] - **Indicator Changes**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.23%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 4.35%. [4] Corn - **Price Changes**: Corn futures (2507) increased by 0.52%, and corn starch futures (2507) increased by 0.11%. [8] - **Indicator Changes**: The basis of corn decreased by 600.00%, and the north - south trade profit decreased by 166.67%. [8] Sugar - **Price Changes**: Sugar futures (2601) increased by 0.32%, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.08%. [12] - **Industry Data**: National sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and sales increased by 26.07%. [12] Cotton - **Price Changes**: Cotton futures (2509) increased by 0.34%, and the 3128B spot price in Xinjiang increased by 0.15%. [14] - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 14.3%. [14] Eggs - **Price Changes**: The 09 contract of eggs decreased by 0.32%, and the 06 contract decreased by 0.98%. [15] - **Indicator Changes**: The price of egg - laying chicks decreased by 1.19%, and the price of culled hens decreased by 0.57%. [15]

农产品早报 2025-05-20 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆震荡为主，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，提供一定支撑。周一 国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报 2860 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧， ...

从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-05-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆窄幅下跌，EPA 已向白宫提交了 RVO 规则供审核，但传言提交的版本大幅低于市场预期，美 豆油弱势带动美豆下跌。周末国内豆粕现货小幅下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报2880元/吨。据MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨 量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧，有利润的情况下当地也会积极出货 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 最低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | :: 成交量 : | 持仓量 | 特分变变化 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of soybeans, soybean meal, and oils is expected to be weak, with soybeans and soybean meal showing a short - term volatile weakness. Sugar prices in the domestic market are likely to decline in the future, and cotton presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. Egg and pig prices are under pressure, with eggs maintaining a strategy of selling on rebounds and pigs being recommended for short - selling during short - term rebounds [2][4][9][12][15][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Strategy - 09 and other far - month soybean meal is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and an upward breakthrough requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production [4]. - Oils are under medium - term downward pressure, and are expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline in the future [12]. - The short - term cotton price will be boosted, and the future focus is on the marginal change of inventory [15]. - Eggs should maintain the strategy of selling on rebounds [17]. - For pigs, short - selling during short - term rebounds is recommended, and wait - and - see or short - term trading is advised before the contradiction deepens [20]. Important Information Soybean/Meal - Overnight, US soybeans fell by more than 2%, and the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The soybean oil mill's开机率 was 54.55% yesterday, with a transaction volume of 73,100 tons [2]. - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48%, and the Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%. The Brazilian soybean premium quote has declined [2]. Oils - India's vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, and its inventory dropped to 1.33 million tons [5]. - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month, and is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days [5]. Sugar - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly, and the spot price also showed a slight decline. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar increased significantly [11]. Cotton - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The USDA monthly report was bearish for the US but bullish globally. As of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [14]. Eggs - Yesterday, most egg prices were stable, with a few declining. The supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas at risk of decline [16]. Pigs - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Due to weak demand and slow - down in pig sales, pig prices are expected to continue to fall today [19]. Agricultural Product Key Charts - The report provides various charts related to agricultural products, including inventory, import volume, production, and price difference charts for soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, with data sources from multiple institutions such as MYSTEEL, USDA, and the Chinese Sugar Industry Association [22][29][33][41][52][63][76][83][95].