1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the medium - and long - term trend of oils and fats is upward, but there may be a short - term correction due to Sino - US trade frictions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Reasons include expected heavy rain in palm oil producing areas in India and Malaysia in the next two weeks, reduced oil mill crushing volume, and a trend of inventory reduction for three major oils [5] - **Demand**: Wait - and - see. The B50 policy in Indonesia is being actively promoted, the US biofuel Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is undetermined and may depend on trade frictions, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower trading volume compared to the same period [5] - **Inventory**: Slightly bullish. Although the total domestic oils and fats inventory increased last week mainly due to reduced holiday pick - up, it is expected to decline overall later considering soybean oil mills' reduced crushing to support prices and rapeseed oil mills' lack of raw materials [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. There is uncertainty about RVO. Sino - US trade frictions have tightened the outlook for distant - month soybeans, Indonesia's B50 is in road tests and expected to be implemented in the second half of next year [5] - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Long oils and short meals in distant months, and long the January contract and short the May contract for palm oil; Options: Buy out - of - the - money call options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oils and fats contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5 spreads, and spot price spreads between domestic soybean oil, palm oil, etc [7][9][14] 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows future precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia [19][21] - **Indonesia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [30][34] - **Malaysia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are provided [35][41] - **India Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price spread between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is given [42][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit are shown [48][50] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes future precipitation and temperature forecasts in US soybean - producing areas, soybean's excellent - good rate, leaf - falling rate, harvesting progress, and US and Brazilian export data [60][70][72] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory are presented [88] - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: Future precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, and relevant export and arrival data are shown [89][98][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on rapeseed FOB price, Canadian weekly rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and relevant production, inventory, and trading volume data of rapeseed oil are provided [102][103][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - India and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production growth potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply - demand, with a tight expectation. Before the inventories in consumption areas and origin are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in consumption area demand, the medium - term outlook is oscillating and bullish. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and adopt a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach for now [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, the prices of the three major oils declined. Foreign capital seats reduced their net long positions in oils, mainly due to average palm oil export data from Malaysia, indicating either weak downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Mid - month, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly due to short - term discounted soybean oil sales in Argentina, and then rebounded due to the mid - term global palm oil supply - demand balance and a tight - supply expectation at the end of the year. During the National Day holiday, the proposed B50 plan in Indonesia for 2026 and the expected reduction of 500 million tons of palm oil exports led to a sharp rebound in the oil market [11] - **International Oils**: The MPOB monthly report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. Indonesian data lags, but if production cannot remain high in the long term and global oil demand is stable, Indonesian inventory is expected to remain low. After the fourth quarter, the production season will enter a decline phase. Both Indian and Indonesian inventories are lower year - on - year, which will support palm oil prices in the medium and long term [11] - **Domestic Oils**: In September, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was decent, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 325,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient oil supply. Rapeseed oil inventory was 187,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 47,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a high - level and slightly declining trend. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a slightly below - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the de - stocking process. However, due to the high margin required for Canadian rapeseed imports, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bullish unilateral strategy. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and use a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The document presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of FCPOV25.MDE FOB palm oil (Malaysia), palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply situation of different oils [28][29][30] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, along with the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [34][36] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: Present the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil import profit and commercial inventory, soybean oil spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory, rapeseed spot average crushing profit and East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil inventories, reflecting the inventory and profit situation of different oils [42][45][47] 5. Cost Side - **Cost Charts**: Show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, Malaysian palm oil import cost price, CNF import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, reflecting the cost situation of different oils [52][56] 6. Demand Side - **Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, reflecting the demand situation of different oils [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which may affect the demand for oils in the biodiesel field [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply of soybeans is expected to remain loose in the medium term, and the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. - For oils and fats, supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increasing demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreasing export volume expectations of Indonesia, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term [5][6][7]. - For sugar, considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the overall outlook is bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, both domestic and international factors suggest that the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [16][17][18]. - For pigs, due to factors such as excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly. The USDA report was postponed due to the government shutdown. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal futures were stable, and the spot price rose slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume from October 4th to 10th was 1.357 million tons. As of October 2nd, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium term, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies, while in the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which will increase the demand for palm - based biofuels. Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September might decrease by 2.5% compared to August. On Thursday, domestic oils and fats rose significantly, mainly stimulated by the news of Indonesia's B50 plan [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories, increasing demand, and decreasing export volume expectations, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a stable decline [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,528 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. In September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The purchase price of seed cotton was lower than last year, and the downstream demand was weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic demand and high export pressure in the US, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price generally declined. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve significantly, and the market confidence is low [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The slaughter enterprises had the intention to lower the purchase price, and the pig price was expected to continue to decline slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market rose significantly, with the P2601 contract closing up 4.13% at 9570 points, hitting an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. - The fundamental situation shows a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. Malaysian palm oil inventory in September may decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production [2]. - The aggressive B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports, and rising crude oil prices increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is crucial. If the MPOB report in September meets market expectations, with an early production inflection point and a decline in inventory, the post - market trend of palm oil needs to be re - evaluated. In the fourth quarter, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market had a significant increase. The P2601 contract of palm oil closed up 4.13% at 9570 points, with an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: Multiple surveys show a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. The industry survey estimates production at 179.4 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease. MPOA estimates production at 181 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate production at 179 million tons and 178 million tons respectively, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Exports**: The industry survey estimates exports at 142.7 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase. Reuters and Bloomberg both estimate exports at 143 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: Different institutions have different estimates of consumption. The industry survey estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 23.5% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 24.5% month - on - month increase. Bloomberg estimates consumption at 48.5 million tons, a 32.9% month - on - month increase [2][5]. - **Inventory**: The industry survey estimates that inventory will drop to 214.6 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate inventory at 215 million tons and 216 million tons respectively [2]. 3.3 Biodiesel Policy Impact - **Indonesia**: Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program next year. Using B50 biodiesel requires 2010 thousand liters of palm oil to be mixed with diesel annually, compared to 1560 thousand liters for B40 biodiesel. This may reduce Indonesia's palm oil exports [6]. - **Brazil**: The plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may be postponed due to incomplete technical feasibility studies. This will mainly affect the biodiesel industry using soybean oil as a raw material [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the incremental demand for biodiesel supports the market performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is more important. If the MPOB report in September meets expectations, with a decline in production and inventory, and as the market enters the traditional seasonal production - reduction period and demand fades, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern in the fourth quarter [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, maintain low - buying and range - trading strategies as B50 road tests are ahead; for soybean oil, it opened higher following the rebound of US soybeans during the holiday [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a 1.65% increase in the day - session and 4,560 ringgit/ton with a 0.33% increase in the night - session. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a 0.49% increase [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,090 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 192 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil was 244 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil was 523 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year after completing laboratory tests. The implementation of the B50 policy requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy needs 15.6 million kiloliters [2][3] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30, 2025 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.42% month - on - month from September 1 - 30, 2025. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil output in September decreased by 2.35%, with a 6.17% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.35% increase in Sabah, a 6.62% increase in Sarawak, and a 3.44% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total output in September was 1.81 million tons [4] - Indonesia exported 16.2 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to August 2025, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, and the export volume in August alone reached 2.56 million tons [4] - A Reuters survey predicted that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September 2025 would be 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease from August, the first decline in seven months; the output was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease from August, hitting the lowest level since June; the export volume was expected to be 1.43 million tons, a 7.7% increase from August [5] - Indian traders said that India's soybean oil imports in September increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, the highest in three years. India's edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% month - on - month to 1.61 million tons, and its sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 272,000 tons, the highest in eight months [5] - S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of the average yield per acre of US soybeans from 53.8 bushels/acre to 53.0 bushels/acre and the soybean output forecast from 4.306 billion bushels to 4.261 billion bushels. It also lowered the average yield per acre forecast of US corn from 189.1 bushels/acre to 185.5 bushels/acre and the 2025 corn output forecast from 16.768 billion bushels to 16.707 billion bushels [5] - StoneX reported that Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/26 season would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [6] - AgRural said that as of October 2, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the 2025/26 season reached 9% of the total sowing area, higher than 3.2% a week ago and 4% in the same period last year [6] - The Argentine government ordered a suspension of the indefinite strike planned by the oilseed workers' union at the processing plants due to wage issues [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil was both 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic driving force for edible oils is insufficient, and future price movements depend on positive factors from the origin. In the short - term, the market will trade within a range. Pay attention to China - US and China - Canada relations, the de - stocking progress of palm oil origins, and the implementation of the B40 plan. Consider opportunities such as the positive spread trading of rapeseed oil 1 - 5 contracts and buying palm oil 01 contracts on dips [1]. - In the near - term, there is still pressure on domestic edible oils. The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and there is a risk of over - inventory for soybean oil. Rapeseed oil has high inventory, and palm oil supply may increase. The demand for edible oils is mainly for essential needs, but the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption [3][5]. - In the long - term, the edible oil market will focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation policy, the supply - demand balance of palm oil origins, the progress of Indonesia's B40 and B50 policies, and China - US and China - Canada relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In the palm oil market, Malaysia entered the production - reduction season in September, while Indonesia's production is normal. The B40 plan in Indonesia may speed up at the end of the year. For soybean oil, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast, and global soybean supply is abundant. The purchase of Argentine soybeans can make up for part of the US soybean gap, delaying the tight supply of domestic soybean oil. For rapeseed oil, Canada's new - season output is optimistic, but the supply may still be tight due to the uncertainty of China - Canada relations and limited substitution from Australian rapeseed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9000 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Consider the opportunity of rebound after over - decline. Technically, consider going long on P2601 at low levels [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For calendar spread strategies, consider positive spread trading for P1 - 5 at low levels (190, 200). For hedging arbitrage strategies, expect the rapeseed - soybean spread to widen and the soybean - palm spread to narrow [13]. 3.1.3 Industry Client Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8400, 9700 - 10300, and 8900 - 9500 respectively [15]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high inventory can short Y2601 to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy Y2601 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about over - inventory can short Y2601 [15]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties [18][19][20][21]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 increased by 7.3% month - on - month. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil mills decreased for the second consecutive week. The operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills decreased during the holiday [22][23]. - **Negative Information**: On September 26, the commercial inventory of three major edible oils in China was 240 million tons, still at a high level in recent years. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Palm oil transactions improved slightly, soybean oil transactions decreased, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 29 domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and progress on the US small - refinery exemption re - allocation decision [30]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, the edible oil market oscillated and sorted. Rapeseed oil was relatively strong, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated. Some speculative funds left the market cautiously. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and the downward space is limited, expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of palm oil after over - decline [31]. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. Palm oil prices are at a medium - low level historically, with decreasing positions and a weak short - term trend. Soybean oil prices are declining with decreasing positions and increasing negative trend. Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with significant position fluctuations and cautious market sentiment [31]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The near - month term structure of edible oils is steeper. The OI1 - 5 positive spread continues to strengthen due to the expected tight supply of rapeseed oil at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 positive spreads are mainly consolidating [33]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the basis of major edible oil contracts was weak. High domestic inventory and weak demand led to a continued weak basis [51]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads strengthened. Rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic, while the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil has eased [55]. - **Foreign Market**: The domestic market followed the foreign market to oscillate and then weaken. Uncertainties in China - US and China - Canada relations and the closure of Argentine exports limited further downward movement. CBOT soybean oil managed funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users increased their positions slightly [57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread is slightly lower but still at a high level, and the BOHO spread is at a low level. The overall cost of bio - fuel production remains high due to the low - price competition of Argentine soybean oil [65]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import cost has slightly decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed slightly. However, due to weak domestic demand and inventory pressure, the probability of a significant increase in purchasing is low [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to drought in the first quarter and floods in September. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decline [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The procurement intention of traders is low. The monthly purchase volume in September and October is about 200,000 tons. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to decline further. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of soybeans in September and October is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, the soybean crushing volume may decrease in December, and the supply of soybean oil may be tight if US soybean purchases are difficult [72][73]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. High inventory will be gradually reduced in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not improve, supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of three major edible oils is large, and demand is weak. The Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption, but overall terminal demand is still weak compared to last year [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal market is currently in a weak and volatile state. In the short - term, there may be a downward trend due to large domestic supply pressure and no clear positive factors in the cost side. In the medium - term, the overall global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. [2][3][4] - The oil market is in a state of current supply - demand balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is expected to be in a medium - term volatile and upward trend, and the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization. [6][8] - The sugar market is generally bearish in the long - term, but in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to technical factors. [9][10] - The cotton market is influenced by both bearish factors such as weak downstream demand and bullish factors like low domestic inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [13][14] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [16][17] - For pigs, the short - term trend is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, US soybeans fluctuated with low valuation and few positive factors. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the price in East China at 2,900 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1892 million tons, and the port soybean inventory increased to 9.385 million tons, expected to peak but remain at a high level. This week, the expected crushing volume is 1.76 million tons. [2] - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal after achieving its export target, which still has a large impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazil's soybean planting progress is relatively fast, reaching 3.2% as of last Thursday, and the premium is temporarily stable. [3] Strategy View - The domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's export tax has driven the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. Currently, the soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. [4] Oil Market Information - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but then increased month - on - month in the subsequent periods. The palm oil production decreased month - on - month in the same period. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months and reach about 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year. [6] - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The recent decline in oils is due to weak palm oil exports from Malaysia and short - term price cuts in Argentina. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. [6] Strategy View - Factors such as low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decrease in exportable volume of palm oil in Southeast Asia support the oil price center. The oil market is in a state of current balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is recommended to buy on dips and stabilization in the medium - term. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot price of sugar in some regions decreased or remained stable. [9] - Consultancy firm StoneX predicts that the sugar cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.4 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons year - on - year, and that in India is expected to be 32.3 million tons, an increase of 6.2 million tons year - on - year. [9] Strategy View - Affected by factors such as the record - high sugar imports in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the sugar price is generally bearish. However, from a technical perspective, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day. [9][10] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also decreased. [12] - As of September 26, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. [13] Strategy View - Although it is the peak consumption season, the downstream operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton inventory is at a historical low, which may provide support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased to 3.45 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average. It is expected that the egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in most areas today. [16] Strategy View - The spot price is expected to decline further. The near - month contracts of the futures market are weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. The supply side may improve marginally, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 11.79 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce prices weakened, and the pig supply may be stable or decrease. The demand is at a high level and shows no sign of further increase. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively balanced today, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. [19] Strategy View - The short - term trend of the pig market is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the US soybean market faces dual impacts of yield and exports. Yield reduction is likely, but the extent is uncertain. The outcome of China-US economic and trade talks in November will significantly affect US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are expected to continue to oscillate in a wide range between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [1][22][113]. - South American soybean exports and planting progress may impact the international soybean market in the fourth quarter. Brazilian soybean exports to China may range from 1000 - 1200 million tons. Brazilian basis fluctuations are crucial, and the possibility of a "dry south and wet north" situation due to La Nina should be monitored [23][37][113]. - Although the arrival of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, supply concerns may ease with effective supply supplements. Domestic soybean meal demand is expected to increase steadily, and inventory reduction may start in November. The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [1][54][113]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of the US soybean oil market is expected to increase significantly, and the inventory will increase steadily. The market is waiting for the implementation of energy policies, and the downward space for US soybean oil may narrow [2][67][114]. - Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend in the fourth quarter. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in October. Export may be temporarily affected, but the tight supply - demand balance sheet of Indonesian palm oil provides support [2][85][114]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand differentiation of domestic oils is prominent. The supply of soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [2][111][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In the third quarter, CBOT soybeans showed a range - bound oscillation, with a reverse "N" shape. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. International oils showed a differentiated trend, with US soybean oil rising and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil rising [5][6]. - From June 30 to September 25, 2025, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil declined, while Malaysian palm oil, Dalian soybean oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil prices increased [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Protein Meal 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Uncertain Supply - Demand Pattern Due to Poor Exports - The yield of US soybeans may be adjusted downward in the USDA report after October, and the export situation depends on China - US economic and trade talks. If China restarts purchasing US soybeans, exports may remain stable; otherwise, they may be further reduced [11][14][18]. - US soybean crushing remains strong, but the room for further increase in crushing volume is limited, and the 2025/26 annual crushing demand is likely to remain at the current level [16][17]. 3.2.2 South American Soybeans: Increased Market Turbulence Due to Export and Weather - In 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record high of 110 million tons. Argentina's soybean export policy is volatile, and the possibility of a second export tax cancellation cannot be ruled out [23][27][30]. - The probability of La Nina occurring from October to December has increased, which may lead to a "dry south and wet north" situation. Brazil's soybean planting has started, but there are weather risks in some areas [32][33]. - Brazilian basis is affected by China - US tariff policies. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian basis may decline; otherwise, it may rise [36][37]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal: Supply Concerns May Ease, but Cost - Driven Factors Remain - With the increase in Argentine soybean imports, the supply of domestic soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to increase, and supply concerns may ease [40]. - Domestic soybean meal demand has increased steadily, but there is a suspicion of over - consuming future demand. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and inventory reduction may start in November [45][48]. - The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level in November, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [49][54]. 3.3 Third Part: Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil: Awaiting Policy Implementation with Uncertain Policy Outlook - The demand for US soybean oil has remained high in 2025, but the implementation of biodiesel policies in October is crucial for future demand [59][61]. - From October, US soybean oil will enter an inventory - building cycle, and the inventory will increase steadily [61]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil: Early Entry into Production Reduction Cycle, Supply Concerns Boost the Market - In the fourth quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil will transition to a production reduction cycle. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in Malaysia [70][75]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil is uncertain due to India's increased purchase of Argentine soybean oil. However, Indonesia's tight supply - demand balance sheet provides support [77][79]. - In the fourth quarter, the Southeast Asian palm oil market will enter a de - stocking stage, and Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend [84][85]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oils: Supply - Demand Structure Differentiation, Accelerated Rapeseed Oil Inventory Reduction - As of September 20, the inventory of domestic oils has not yet started to decline. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of oils is relatively abundant, but there are significant differences among varieties [88]. - Domestic oil demand has declined. In the fourth quarter, the demand for oils may enter a small peak, but expectations should not be too high [91]. - The supply of domestic soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [95][100][108]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The conclusions are consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the uncertainties and trends in the protein meal and oil markets in the fourth quarter [113][114][115].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - For the soybean meal market, the Sino - US talks have sent positive signals but no final results yet, and the US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, dragging down US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is relatively loose, and the market is focusing on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, as new corn gradually enters the market, the supply will increase, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Group 3: Summary by Catalog - Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (+1.26%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract closed at 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+2.05%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 27. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 19 [1] - Market Information: Brazil's expected soybean exports in September 2025 are 715 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year. The exports from January - September 2025 are expected to reach 9.525 billion tons, and about 1.6 billion tons from October - December [1] Market Analysis - Sino - US talks have positive signals but no final results, and the US biodiesel policy has affected US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is loose, and the market focuses on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Group 4: Summary by Catalog - Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2511 contract closed at 2165 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2474 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 1. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 5 [3] - Market Information: From September 1 - 19, 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 4.73 million tons, with an average daily export of 305,807 tons (up 3.1% year - on - year). The export amount was 940 million US dollars, and the average export price was 198.1 US dollars/ton (up 1.8% year - on - year). In August 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 6.849 million tons (up 13.0% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn is relatively loose as new corn in the Northeast and North China is gradually on the market. Traders are pessimistic about the future. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]