要紧盯重点领域稳住增长势头，赋能重点区域、重点企业再发力，经济大区继续挑好大梁，市区两 级要全力为企解忧、助企增利。明年一季度经济调度的窗口期短，要先谋快动、靠前发力，稳增长工作 要早部署、早安排，重要政策工具要早储备、早落实，重大项目活动要早谋划、早启动，抢抓一切有利 条件、调动一切积极因素，推动明年经济工作开好局、起好步。同时，要坚决守牢安全底线，确保"十 四五"圆满收官。 会议原则同意《上海市促进服务业提质增效和消费提振扩容联动发展的若干措施》并指出，要统筹 联动服务供给与消费需求，提升服务供给和品质，提振消费意愿和能力。要统筹联动政策支持与环境营 造，清理消费领域不合理限制措施，打造有利于消费持续增长的制度体系和市场环境。 会议原则同意《上海市支持先进制造业转型升级三年行动方案（2026—2028年）》并指出，要注重 提质增效，聚焦主导产业重点企业，加强精准服务，保障产业链、供应链关键环节稳定畅通。要促进转 型升级，以智能化为牵引、绿色化为导向、融合化为支撑，推动"制造+服务""产品+解决方案"转型，培 育全球"链主"企业和"专精特新"企业。要优化发展生态，做好空间提质增效，促进要素成本下降，推动 更 ...

Group 1 - Sichuan's water investment for this year exceeds 70 billion yuan, marking a historical high, with the investment scale during the 14th Five-Year Plan expected to be more than double that of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The Sichuan Water Resources Department aims to complete over 350 billion yuan in water investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is projected to be more than a 25% increase compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The department plans to accelerate the progress of ongoing projects, ensuring the completion of 581 projects including the Tuxikou Reservoir, and to push forward with 182 ongoing projects such as the Yangdajiang Diversion [1] Group 2 - The focus is on enhancing rural water supply quality and safety, with initiatives like the construction of rural water systems and modernization of irrigation districts to support rural revitalization [2] - The department is exploring new paths for water rights and pricing reforms, aiming to deepen pilot projects for water rights and establish a water rights trading mechanism [2] - There is an emphasis on improving management efficiency through integrated irrigation district management, engineering operation management, and the development of digital water resources [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown strong performance, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The international gold price closed at $4442.41 per ounce, up 2.41%, while silver closed at $69.01 per ounce, up 2.8% [1] - COMEX silver inventory is approximately 14,000 tons, and London silver market inventory is about 27,000 tons, down about one-third from the peak in 2022, indicating tight supply [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are supported by expectations of global monetary easing and domestic growth stabilization policies, with U.S. inflation data reinforcing these expectations [2] - The copper supply chain is experiencing tightness, as evidenced by a significant drop in processing fees for copper concentrate, reflecting a constrained supply [2] - The aluminum supply chain shows a slight increase in supply but a weakening demand, necessitating attention to inventory levels and seasonal demand impacts [2] Group 3: New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a phase of tight supply and demand, with prices likely to remain high in the short term due to ongoing inventory depletion [3] - Export controls on rare earths have become a strategic tool in the U.S.-China trade conflict, potentially enhancing China's pricing power in the global rare earth market [3] - The long-term outlook for the rare earth sector remains positive, with policy support expected to drive industry value reassessment [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated downward in the morning, and then fluctuated horizontally after further decline in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.28%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 130.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. The LPR quotes in December remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.27% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43% (compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased by 0.62 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year increased by 1.07 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year increased by 1.60 BP to 2.24% [1] - **Policy Meeting**: On December 22, Premier Li of the State Council chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft to study the preparation work and plan a number of major projects, major projects, and major carriers [1] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month in November, while PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with inflation remaining moderate. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is still the main line of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The People's Bank of China Party Committee meeting pointed out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. On Monday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, moved higher, and then fluctuated horizontally, closing 0.98% higher than the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.88 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 1.75 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1] Trading Strategy - Treasury bond futures may be volatile in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Insights - The central economic work conference in December 2025 focuses on stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and increasing income as key policy frameworks to address current economic challenges and lay a foundation for high-quality development [1][3] Monetary Policy - The conference emphasizes "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery," targeting the long-standing issues of low CPI and PPI [3] - The adjustment in monetary policy aims to restore market participants' profit expectations and consumer confidence, injecting liquidity into the macroeconomic cycle to combat deflationary expectations [3] Consumption and Income Growth - The implementation of "special actions to boost consumption" and "urban and rural residents' income increase plans" is seen as crucial for expanding domestic demand [3] - From 2020 to 2022, the actual growth rate of per capita disposable income in China showed significant fluctuations, stabilizing between 5% and 6% in the first three quarters of 2023 to 2025, but still lacking in stability and consumer spending capacity [3] - The relationship between income growth and consumption is highlighted as a positive cycle that can fundamentally alleviate the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [3] Long-term Economic Outlook - The challenges faced by the Chinese economy are viewed as phase-specific issues rather than systemic risks, with strong supporting conditions for long-term growth remaining intact [5] - The strategic and actionable nature of the conference's deployment is expected to help the economy transition out of its current pain period and achieve sustainable growth [5] - The key to future policies lies in effectively implementing income increase plans and consumption boosting actions to enhance residents' sense of income growth and foster positive market demand expectations [5]

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，主要受到宏观与基本面双重作用影响。上周"反内卷"或使得市场交易情绪对低估值品种再度袭来，叠加合金端的供 应变动及煤焦板块对合金盘面的情绪冲击，使得价格走势偏强，但大厂对盘套保意愿显现，叠加需求短期偏弱迹象仍存，盘面高度或有压力 。 ◼ 宏观：国内：中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务： ①传统稳增长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号，超出市场预期 ②在 物价方面，在多个领域提到涉及物价或反内卷方面的工作，显示政策重视的态度；海外：美联储如期再降息25基点。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量继续走弱，对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前锰硅基本面矛盾继续累积，硅铁减产缓解前序压力，仍需注意炉料供应端生产节奏的变动。 ◼ 本周合金端，成本均表现坚挺，供应环比走弱，硅铁减产力度较大，使得市场交易供应预期收紧情绪较强，但上升力度有限，需关注盘面回升后利 润修复，或使得宁夏地区大厂生产节奏存在变动；锰硅端，锰矿需求维持，海外矿企1月报价环比抬升，港口锰矿价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.93%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore also saw gains [2][11] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply situation, with high furnace capacity utilization at 84.9% and a slight decrease in production [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for value recovery in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [4] Supply Summary - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 84.9%, down by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [3][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2655 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.65 thousand tons [3][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 6.918 million tons, down by 3.92 thousand tons week-on-week [3][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.353 million tons as of December 19, a decrease of 4.44 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 99 thousand tons, showing a slight increase of 0.10 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 9.065 million tons, down by 352.6 thousand tons week-on-week, but up 18.06% year-on-year [3][44] - Factory inventory stands at 3.883 million tons, down by 2.05 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3][44] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,448.7 yuan/ton, up by 14.76 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 42 yuan/ton, which has doubled week-on-week [3][57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,423 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.0 yuan/ton [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-end steel production [4] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others, which are positioned for growth and value recovery [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the integration of investment in physical assets and human capital to stimulate economic growth and support the new development pattern [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The central economic work conference highlights the need to stabilize investment as a key task, especially in light of external environmental changes and domestic economic challenges [1]. - Fixed asset investment growth has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% from January to November, influenced by local government debt and real estate adjustments [1]. - Long-term effective investment opportunities remain, as per capita capital stock in China is still lower than that of developed economies, indicating room for growth in infrastructure and public services [1]. Group 2: Funding Sources - The central economic work conference proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increase central budget investment, optimize local government special bond usage, and leverage new policy financial tools to enhance funding sources [2]. - Predictions suggest that upcoming policies will help alleviate local financial pressures and amplify government investment's impact [2]. - The focus on high-quality implementation of major national strategies and projects aligns with the need for improved infrastructure and human resource development [2]. Group 3: Private Investment - The article stresses the necessity of a collaborative investment approach led by the government and driven by the market, aiming to enhance private sector participation in major projects [3]. - Measures have been introduced to stimulate private investment, including expanding access, addressing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees [3]. - The central economic work conference calls for improving regulations to boost private sector confidence and investment willingness [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Demand - The development of new industries and the need to address existing gaps will continuously generate investment demand [4]. Group 5: Investment Growth Expectations - Investment is expected to have a greater elasticity compared to consumption, and with the implementation of various policies, investment growth in the coming year looks promising [5]. - More detailed work is required to ensure sustainable investment growth and optimize supply structure [5].

Economic Overview - "Anti-involution" has become a significant factor affecting economic operations, with fluctuations in economic data for November 2025 reflecting adjustments in industry prices and profit patterns during efforts to curb inefficient competition and promote structural optimization [2] - The current uneven pace of domestic demand recovery highlights the need for policies to focus on investment and consumption to stabilize growth [2] CPI Analysis - The CPI for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2024 [6] - Food prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, with core CPI remaining stable at 1.2% [6] - The month-on-month core CPI saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating a mixed trend in consumer prices [6] PPI Analysis - The PPI for November 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [8] - The decrease in production materials and living materials prices reflects the impact of high base effects from the previous year [8] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month, indicating a balance in price movements across various sectors [8] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 was reported at 49.2%, showing a marginal improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [12] - Key drivers of this improvement include increases in production and new orders, alongside better external demand conditions [12] - The raw material purchase price index has been in an expansion zone for five consecutive months, suggesting a potential for improved profitability for manufacturing firms [12] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment for January to November 2025 decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [15] - The central economic work conference has proposed measures to increase central budget investments and optimize project management to reverse the declining trend in infrastructure investment [15] Credit Market - New RMB loans in November 2025 totaled 390 billion, a decrease from 220 billion in the previous month [19] - Short-term loans for residents fell significantly, reflecting weakened consumer confidence and employment expectations [19] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a notable decline in transaction volumes across major cities [19] M2 and Monetary Policy - The M2 growth rate for November 2025 was 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month, indicating a tightening monetary environment [23] - The widening gap between M1 and M2 suggests a shift in deposit behaviors, with businesses moving funds from demand deposits to time deposits [23]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of effective investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing government investment to stimulate private investment and reform investment mechanisms [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The central economic work conference identifies stabilizing investment as a key task for the upcoming year, with a focus on reversing the decline in fixed asset investment, which has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1][2]. - The government aims to combine investment in physical assets and human capital, enhancing infrastructure and public services while addressing the needs of new urbanization and rural revitalization [2][3]. Group 2: Funding Sources - The central economic work conference proposes a more proactive fiscal policy, including increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to enhance funding sources for investment [2][3]. - New policy financial tools are highlighted as crucial for stabilizing investment, indicating a shift towards early implementation of these tools [2]. Group 3: Project Implementation - The 15th Five-Year Plan will prioritize high-quality implementation of major national strategies and projects, focusing on infrastructure and public service development in response to demographic changes [3][4]. - The government aims to create a collaborative investment environment by enhancing the role of private enterprises in major project construction and increasing the proportion of private investment [3][4]. Group 4: Private Investment Activation - The State Council has issued measures to stimulate private investment, including 13 targeted initiatives to improve access, eliminate bottlenecks, and strengthen guarantees for private investors [4]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to boost private sector confidence through improved regulations and timely payment of debts owed to enterprises, fostering a conducive environment for private investment [4].