Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the recent public fund regulations are a necessary result of long-term changes in China's capital market structure and economic structure [3] - The market style is shifting from low-volatility strategies to core assets, indicating a potential long-term decline in China's capital intensity [3][24] - In the short to medium term, the core asset style needs to recover, while in the long term, it reflects the cyclical bottoming of the economy [3][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the resilience of the US economy is weakening, with inflation structures continuing to adjust; April's CPI inflation year-on-year was 2.3%, while core CPI remained at 2.8% [8][11] - The US PPI inflation showed a month-on-month decline of -0.47% in April, with service PPI contributing significantly to this decline [9][12] - Retail sales in the US also showed weak growth, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.058% in April, indicating a drag on consumption [11][12] Group 3 - The report highlights the mutual reduction of trade barriers between China and the US, with both countries agreeing to cancel 91% of tariffs and establish a mechanism for ongoing economic negotiations [13][15] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a general increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.09% [16] - The report indicates a lack of clear main lines in the Hong Kong market, with sectors like security, NFT concepts, and building energy efficiency leading the gains [19][24] Group 4 - The report suggests that the growth style may continue to adjust due to a lack of event catalysts [3][24] - In terms of industry performance, financial and real estate sectors led the gains, while technology sectors faced declines [32][24] - The report also notes a divergence in foreign capital index futures holdings, with net short positions expanding in some indices [44]

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 关税冲击，是"危"更是"机" ——论当前形势与 2018 年的差异 核心观点 2018 年，A 股在内生性调整压力、极致市场分化、经济转型压力和资管新规等"多重 约束"下，受到特朗普发起的三轮贸易战影响，全年市场震荡下行、跌幅较大。时隔 7 年，中国再次遇到美国关税冲击。与 2018 年相比，当前 A 股在微观结构、政策环境、 经济内力、流动性和科技创新 5 大维度下更加乐观，市场或形成"下有支撑，上有压 力"新格局，上证指数大概率于 3000-3350 点附近展开震荡。我们预计市场最快有望 在今年三季度重启上行攻势。配置方面，建议关注三大方向：1）自主可控：芯片/信 创/稀土/军工等；2）扩内需：地产建材/航空机场/酒饮/家具/调味品等；3）红利：大 金融/交运/饮料乳品等。 ❑ 2018 年：内生性调整压力叠加中美贸易摩擦 内部看，权重指数经过 2016-2017 年上涨，存在内生性调整压力，2018 年初大小 盘走势极致分化表明内生稳定性不足。结构性去杠杆与资管新规并存，压制风险 偏好，全年保证金余额、主动权益基金和两融余额均下降，市场流动性承压。外 部看， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Capital Flows of Exchange-Traded Index Funds [1] - Data Date: April 21 - April 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the capital flow, fund scale, and weekly price change data of domestic passive stock funds, overseas index funds, and other types of index funds from April 21 to April 25, 2025, helping investors understand the market dynamics of different types of index funds [4][5][6] Summary by Category Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Composite Concepts**: Among them, the CSI 1000 had a weekly price increase of 1.95% and a net capital inflow of 594 million yuan; the Science and Technology Innovation 100 had a weekly price increase of 0.69% and a net capital inflow of 391 million yuan; while the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 had a weekly price increase of 0.38% but a net capital outflow of 2.783 billion yuan [4] - **Industry Themes**: The large - technology concept had a weekly price increase of 1.10% and a net capital inflow of 4.849 billion yuan; the large - health concept had a weekly price increase of 2.36% and a net capital inflow of 479 million yuan; the large - consumer concept had a weekly price increase of 0.36% and a net capital outflow of 1.397 billion yuan [4] - **Style Strategies**: The dividend - low - volatility concept had a weekly price increase of 0.76% and a net capital inflow of 87 million yuan; the growth concept had a weekly price increase of 1.84% and a net capital outflow of 109 million yuan [4] - **Enterprise Nature**: The China Special Valuation (C - Special Valuation) concept had a weekly price change of - 0.05% and a net capital outflow of 242 million yuan [4] - **Region**: The regional concept had a weekly price increase of 1.62% and a net capital outflow of 600,000 yuan [4] Overseas Index Funds - **Composite Concepts**: The Nasdaq 100 had a weekly price increase of 4.79% and a net capital inflow of 1.052 billion yuan; the S&P 500 had a weekly price increase of 3.35% and a net capital inflow of 366 million yuan; the Nikkei 225 had a weekly price increase of 1.50% and a net capital outflow of 16 million yuan [5] - **Industry Themes**: The Hong Kong Stock Technology concept had a weekly price increase of 3.73% and a net capital inflow of 553 million yuan; the China Internet concept had a weekly price increase of 5.22% and a net capital outflow of 51 million yuan; the Hong Kong Stock Medical concept had a weekly price increase of 9.53% and a net capital outflow of 3.053 billion yuan [5] - **Style Strategies**: The dividend concept had a weekly price increase of 1.18% and a net capital inflow of 200,000 yuan; the dividend - low - volatility concept had a weekly price increase of 1.85% and a net capital inflow of 100,000 yuan [5] Other Types of Index Funds - **Bond Funds**: Among interest - rate - related bond funds, the 10 - year bond fund had a weekly price increase of 0.05% and a net capital inflow of 3 million yuan; the 5 - 10 - year bond fund had a weekly price change of - 0.04% and a net capital outflow of 195 million yuan [6] - **Commodity Funds**: The gold fund had a weekly price change of - 0.70% and a net capital inflow of 1.8109 billion yuan; the non - ferrous metal fund had a weekly price increase of 1.70% and a net capital outflow of 400,000 yuan [6] - **Index - Enhanced Funds**: The CSI 500 index - enhanced fund had a weekly price increase of 1.92% and a net capital outflow of 18 million yuan; the GEM index - enhanced fund had a weekly price increase of 2.45% and a net capital outflow of 500,000 yuan [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The report focuses on the allocation value of Hong Kong stocks, the types of hybrid bond funds allocating Hong Kong stocks, a case study of fund managers with significant exposure to Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds, and concludes with investment suggestions [1][3][66] Group 2: Allocation Value of Hong Kong Stocks Sub - group 1: Positive Factors for Hong Kong Stocks - Southbound capital has been flowing into Hong Kong stocks, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for Hong Kong stocks [7][8][10] - Hong Kong stocks have high - quality and scarce underlying assets, including leading Internet companies, innovative biopharmaceutical enterprises, emerging consumer sectors, and high - dividend assets [16][17][23] - The cost - effectiveness of Hong Kong stocks has increased, and the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in hybrid bond funds has significantly risen [24][25][29] Sub - group 2: Screening of Hybrid Bond Funds Allocating Hong Kong Stocks - The screening criteria for Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds are hybrid bond funds with an average Hong Kong stock - to - equity ratio of over 20% in the past eight quarters and a consistent equity position of over 5% [30] - The Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have shown good performance in the past two years, with average annualized returns in each equity position range exceeding 3% [32][33] - Most Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have a large - cap or ultra - large - cap style, with a balanced or value style, and generally low exposure to growth [34][35][39] - Most fund managers have allocated Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds, with GF Fund, Huatai - PineBridge Fund, Fullgoal Fund, and Anxin Fund having larger management scales and more products [42][43][50] Sub - group 3: Case Study of GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced Hybrid Bond Funds - GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have generally achieved positive returns in the past two years, with most annualized returns exceeding 3% [54] - The Hong Kong stock position of GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds is divided into stable and phased allocation types, with a central average Hong Kong stock - to - equity ratio of about 32% [51][57][58] - GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds show diverse styles, including balanced allocation, "core + satellite" configuration, and "dividend + Internet" dumbbell - shaped configuration [59][60][61] - The Hong Kong stock positions of GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have contributed positive returns in the past two years, with some funds showing significant contributions [63][64] Group 3: Conclusion - Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds can be divided into stable and phased allocation types, suitable for investors with different investment preferences [66] - Most Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have a large - cap or ultra - large - cap style, with a balanced or value style and low exposure to growth [66] - Dividend and Internet are the most popular sectors in Hong Kong stock positions, and balanced allocation is the most common strategy [66]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn amid global market declines, with the ChiNext index falling over 1% and more than 4,000 stocks declining [1][2][4] Market Performance - A-shares showed resilience compared to significant declines in US and Japanese markets, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 3% and Nikkei 225 over 4% [5] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.2 trillion, with defensive sectors like precious metals, electricity, and banking rising against the trend, while sectors like photovoltaic and brokerage faced significant declines [4] Impact of Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump's upcoming announcement of a large-scale tariff plan, referred to as "liberation day," is expected to create volatility in global markets, affecting A-shares [8] - Analysts predict that the short-term pressure on A-shares will be significant, but the medium to long-term outlook remains resilient due to improved fundamentals and policy support [8][9] Sector Analysis - Industries with high export exposure, such as textiles, home appliances, and automotive parts, are likely to face significant impacts from the tariff plan [9] - Conversely, sectors like agriculture (due to high import dependence) and military (due to geopolitical uncertainties) may benefit from the situation [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, considering increasing holdings in gold and high-dividend sectors while avoiding high-leverage technology stocks [9] - In the medium term, opportunities may arise in AI applications, consumer recovery, and domestic alternatives such as domestic chips and military sectors [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings disclosure period in April is expected to see rapid style rotation in the market, with a focus on performance, dividends, and value [10][13] - The correlation between stock prices and earnings is anticipated to be strongest during this period, making it crucial for investors to pay attention to fundamentals [10][13] Sector Outlook - Three main directions are highlighted for investment based on earnings forecasts: 1. **Cyclical sectors** such as non-ferrous metals and engineering machinery are expected to show strong performance [15] 2. **Technology growth sectors** like SOC, semiconductor equipment, and memory interface chips are projected to have high earnings certainty [16][19] 3. **Dividend sectors** are expected to maintain stable growth, making them suitable for long-term investment [20]

Core Viewpoint - The active equity funds have regained market attention as the market conditions improve, with a notable focus on technology innovation-related themes [1][2][6] Group 1: Fund Issuance and Themes - As of March 20, a total of 17 new active equity funds have been launched, primarily focusing on technology innovation themes [1][2] - Among the 10 funds currently in the initial issuance phase, many are centered on technology sectors, including funds like Taiping Technology Pioneer Mixed and Deutsche Bank Emerging Industry Mixed [2] - Some funds are targeting specific themes, such as central enterprises and dividends, with examples like Rongtong Central Enterprise Selected Mixed focusing on high-dividend, stable cash flow companies [2][3] Group 2: Fund Issuance Strategies - Many funds are adopting a "initiated" issuance strategy due to concerns over unsuccessful fundraising, with 5 out of the 10 currently issuing funds being initiated funds [3][4] - Initiated funds require a minimum of 10 million yuan to establish and have shorter issuance periods, allowing for gradual scale growth post-establishment [4] Group 3: Fund Performance and Market Sentiment - Despite the increase in active equity fund issuance, there remains a cautious sentiment among fund companies due to recent failures in fundraising, with 3 funds reported to have failed to meet registration conditions this year [4][5] - The performance of active equity funds has shown promise, with the highest return exceeding 80% year-to-date, indicating potential for sustained performance as market conditions evolve [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the North Securities 50 index down by 3.07% and the Sci-Tech 50 index down by 2.11%, while over 3,800 stocks declined, leading to a slight decrease in trading volume to 1.65 trillion yuan [1] - The coal, medical beauty, and electricity sectors showed relative strength, while humanoid robots, broadcasting, storage chips, and wireless earphones faced significant declines [1] - ST stocks continued to perform strongly, with *ST Xintong achieving a new high since January 2018, recording 31涨停 in 35 trading days [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The coal industry saw a net inflow of over 3.3 billion yuan from major funds, while the banking and public utilities sectors each received over 2 billion yuan [1] - The power sector maintained strong performance, with the index rising for three consecutive days and trading volume exceeding 28.2 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year [2] - The artificial intelligence data center is expected to drive significant growth in electricity demand, with projections indicating that by 2026, global data center electricity consumption will reach between 620 billion and 1.05 trillion kilowatt-hours [2] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Qi Ming Medical, which had been suspended for over 15 months, saw its stock plummet by 66.37% upon resuming trading due to unauthorized fund transfers by former executives [3] - Qi Ming Medical acknowledged the challenges posed by the suspension and has undertaken a systematic restructuring of its organizational framework to enhance governance and internal controls [3] - The company has established a management committee to improve internal supervision and ensure timely market disclosures regarding significant matters [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on innovation, overseas expansion, thematic investments, and dividend strategies as the main investment themes [2][17]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a short-term pullback but remains optimistic about the innovation-driven growth trajectory. Key areas of focus include innovative drugs, international market expansion, and supportive policies for innovation [2][17]. - The report highlights the importance of innovative drugs as a new productive force, with significant policy support expected to accelerate their development [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential of companies with strong clinical pipelines and innovative capabilities, particularly in the context of recent supportive policies for innovative drugs [16][17]. Summary by Sections Current Industry Investment Strategy - The pharmaceutical index fell by 2.72% in the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.97 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 1.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.75 percentage points [15]. - The current valuation level (PE-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 26.53 times, with a premium of 75.91% relative to the entire A-share market [15]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **Hengrui Medicine**: Recent updates on lung cancer data show promising results, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 73% and median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 11.5 months, indicating strong commercial potential [16]. - **Innovative Drug Policies**: New policies are expected to encourage commercial insurance companies to invest in innovative drug companies and improve pricing standards [16][17]. Thematic Investment Lines - **Innovation and Overseas Expansion**: The report identifies innovative drugs as a key area, with a high success rate in recent insurance negotiations for innovative drugs [17]. - **Dividend Strategy**: With the 10-year government bond yield falling below 2%, dividend-paying assets with stable growth and cash flow are highlighted as defensive and offensive investment options [9][18]. Recommended Investment Combinations - The report lists several recommended stocks, including Hengrui Medicine, Enhua Pharmaceutical, and Yifan Pharmaceutical, among others, indicating a strong buy rating for these companies based on their growth potential and market performance [19][22].