英国央行：将继续对经济和地缘政治环境中日益增加的不确定性保持高度敏感。 ...

鲍威尔：经济不确定性已经回落，但仍然偏高。 ...

Group 1 - Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, marking the largest decline of the year and the second consecutive drop since April [1] - The decline in retail sales was primarily driven by the automotive sector, indicating that consumers are cutting back on spending due to concerns over tariff policies and personal financial situations [1] - Out of 13 categories covered in the report, 7 experienced a decline in sales, particularly in building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales, which had previously seen a surge due to pre-tariff stockpiling [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending in restaurants and bars faced its largest drop since the beginning of 2023, reflecting reduced confidence among consumers [1] - The confidence of U.S. home builders unexpectedly fell to a two-and-a-half-year low in June, with the housing market index dropping from 34 to 32, indicating high inventory levels and potential buyers waiting for more reasonable prices [1] - The New York Fed reported that manufacturing activity in the state unexpectedly contracted in June, with the overall business conditions index declining nearly 7 points to -16, remaining in contraction for the fourth consecutive month [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：关于ETF持仓的立场保持不变。即使关税问题得到解决，经济受到的影响仍存 在较高的不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that price trends may align with the outlook targets for the second half of the year, despite facing high uncertainty regarding the economy and prices [1] Economic Outlook - The economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and economic forecasts [1]

Group 1 - Gold has become the second largest reserve asset for global central banks, surpassing the euro, driven by record purchasing volumes and rising prices [1][4] - The European Central Bank reports that gold reserves have reached 36,000 tons, comparable to levels seen in 1965, with gold expected to account for 20% of global official reserves by 2024 [2][3] - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, representing 20% of global annual production, with significant purchases from countries like China, India, Turkey, and Poland [4] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently fluctuating, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, with market sentiment cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data [5] - The trend of de-dollarization has accelerated since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with central banks increasingly viewing gold as a hedge against sanctions and geopolitical risks [5] - Wells Fargo predicts that uncertainties will drive gold prices higher, with expectations of a price drop to $3,000-$3,200 per ounce by year-end, followed by a rise to $3,600 by the end of 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Inditex, the owner of Zara, reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales and indicated a slower start to the summer season amid economic uncertainty [1][2]. Financial Performance - Inditex reported revenues of 8.27 billion euros ($9.44 billion) for the fiscal first quarter from February 1 to April 30, falling short of the 8.39 billion euros forecast by analysts [2]. - The net income for the quarter was 1.3 billion euros, slightly below the 1.32 billion euros estimated by analysts [2]. Sales Trends - The company experienced a slower start to summer sales, with a 6% increase at constant currencies from May 1 to June 9, compared to a 12% growth in the same period last year [2]. - In March, Inditex had already indicated a slowdown in demand at the beginning of the year, which was attributed to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to benefit from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, with predictions of reaching historical highs by 2026 [3] - Analysts suggest that the significant adjustments in commodity prices create attractive opportunities for economic improvement later this year and in 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors [3] - There is a recommendation for investors to shift towards sectors that may benefit from macroeconomic improvements, such as energy and precious metals [3] Group 2 - Current technical analysis indicates that spot gold has shown slight increases but is forming a bearish flag pattern, suggesting continued selling pressure [4] - The price is being suppressed by the EMA50, and the RSI indicator shows a divergence, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued downward trend [5]

美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆日前接受英国《金融时报》采访时说，美国总统唐 纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能导致美国通货膨胀率持续居高。他警告说，直到今年夏天结束，美国政策 制定者都将面临经济不确定性。穆萨莱姆说，假如美国贸易和财政政策的不确定性能在"7月消散"，美 联储才可能筹备9月降息。（央视新闻） ...