投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 海外扰动加剧，股指冲高回落 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-11-17 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 素 | | | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 10月经济数据显示，基本面继续呈现走弱态势，投资增速与房地产价格加速下滑。具体来看，1-10月固定资产投资累计同比下降1.7%，增速较9 月回落1.2个百分点。从投资结构分析，房地产投资累计同比下降14.7%，降幅较上期扩大0.8个百分点；基建投资累计同比增长1.51%，增速回 | | 业盈利 | | 落1.83个百分点；制造业投资累计同比增幅为2.7%，较前值下降1.3个百分点。值得注意的是，通胀出现小幅回升，10月CPI同比增速转正至 | | | | 0.2%，环比亦小幅上升0.1个百分点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The overall weakness of macro - financial and economic indicators in October, the downward trend of the overseas labor market, and the central bank's attitude of protecting liquidity are all favorable to the bond market. However, the low probability of monetary policy intensification due to weak financial data, the "buy the dip" behavior in the stock market, and the potential impact of the pending new regulations on public bond fund redemption fees make the short - term unilateral trend of the bond market still tangled [5]. - For arbitrage, with a neutral - bullish view and the 30Y - 7Y term spread at a relatively high historical level in the past three years, it is recommended to continue to hold an appropriate amount of (TL - 3T) positions. As the delivery month approaches and the valuation of the current - quarter contract becomes reasonable, short - sellers accelerating the roll - over may drive the spread to strengthen. It is advisable to try to go long on the current - quarter to next - quarter spread of the T contract when the opportunity arises [5]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Macroeconomic Indicators - In October, major domestic macro - economic indicators generally declined on a high - base effect, with contractions in both production and demand [7]. - The continuous weakening of some domestic demand indicators recently implies that the multiplier effect of previous policies is not obvious, and the self - repair momentum of the domestic economy is not strong [10]. Credit Expansion - Credit expansion continued to slow down in October. New RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 280 billion yuan. Social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. However, corporate direct financing performed well, with corporate bond financing and non - financial corporate stock financing increasing by 189.4 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [14][17]. M1 and Deposits - M2 growth rate in October was 8.2% year - on - year, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. M1 growth rate was 6.2% year - on - year, a 1.0 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, showing an initial inflection point. After the quarter, household and non - financial corporate deposits declined seasonally, while non - bank financial institution deposits increased significantly [25]. - In October, new fiscal deposits were 72 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.48 billion yuan. The slowdown in fiscal expenditure may be one of the reasons for the decline in M1 growth rate. In the future, the seasonal increase in government expenditure at the end of the year is expected to support the cash flow of enterprises and households [26]. Market Liquidity - This week, the market liquidity tightened as expected due to the large net payment scale of government bonds. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is still relatively high, and the tax payment period from the 17th to the 19th is expected to bring some short - term disturbances to the liquidity. However, considering the central bank's attitude of protecting liquidity, the actual pressure on market funds is expected to be controllable [37]. Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report continues the loose tone, being more positive than the second - quarter report. However, it continues to downplay the importance of aggregate financial indicators. There are also concerns about the marginal decline in the efficiency of monetary policy [42]. Treasury Bond Futures Valuation and Roll - over - The valuation of Treasury bond futures contracts is still differentiated. The IRR of the next - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL is generally higher than that of the current - quarter contracts and the market funds price [48]. - The roll - over progress of the main contracts this week accelerated but was still slower than the historical average. The slow roll - over may be the reason why the inter - delivery spread did not generally strengthen this week. It is recommended to try to go long on the current - quarter to next - quarter spread of the T contract when the opportunity arises [54]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - This part tracks various data related to Treasury bond futures, including trading volume, open interest, inter - contract spreads, net positions, Treasury bond spot yields, and related international financial data such as the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury bond spread, US dollar index, and US dollar - RMB offshore exchange rate [58][61][65].

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, with the overall impact to be assessed over weeks or months[4] - The IMF predicts that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 will be below the previous forecast of 1.9% due to the shutdown[4] - U.S. October PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations[4][5] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed officials are divided on interest rate decisions, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others prefer to maintain current rates[4] - The probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in December decreased from 66.9% to 44.4%[5] - The weighted average expected policy rate for the end of 2026 increased from 2.90% to 2.96%[5] Group 3: Global Market Trends - U.S. stocks saw modest gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%[11] - European stocks rose, with the STOXX 600 index increasing by 1.8% driven by healthcare valuations[11] - The dollar index weakened by 0.26%, while the euro and pound strengthened against the dollar[20] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, closing at $64.4 and $60.1 per barrel[18] - Gold prices increased by 1.9%, reaching $4,071.1 per ounce, while silver surged by 6.8% to $52.0 per ounce[18]

今日，央行开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，智通财经记者梳理，今年11月，6个月期买断式逆回购到 期量为3000亿元，今日操作落地后，6个月期限买断式逆回购实现加量续做5000亿元。在此之前，央行 已于11月5日开展7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购，由于当月有同样规模3个月期买断式逆回购到期，因 此月内为等量续做。 值得注意的是，这是央行连续6个月通过买断式逆回购向市场注入中期流动性。背后原因在于，一方面 11月政府债券净融资规模会明显上升，另一方面10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动当 月委托贷款走高后，接下来还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放。此外，11月银行同业存单到期量也有明 显增加。 "以上因素都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。着眼于应对潜在的流动 性收紧态势，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充 裕状态。"东方金诚宏观分析师王青指出，近期宏观经济出现下行波动，当前央行更大规模加量续作买 断式逆回购，释放了数量型政策工具持续加力的信号。 "今年以来，央行综合运用多种货币政策工具，既保持流动性'适度宽松'又维持'不满不溢' ...

申万宏源证券认为，三季度新增"综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松"。二季度对应表述 为"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏"。在当前社会融资规 模的主要支撑来自政府债券发行的背景下，此表述实际上从侧面凸显了货币政策正着力加强与财政政策 的协同配合。 华创证券分析称，本次货政报告释放出对于稳增长较强的信号，强化"内需主导"的稳增长诉求。政策基 调从"落实落细"适度宽松调整为"实施好"，不再仅强调存量政策效能释放，或不排除明年货币政策前置 发力的可能；资金方面虽删除"防空转"表述，强化利率传导、建立规律化的中长期资金投放模式，大幅 宽松的空间或也有限；实体融资方面，引导市场理性看待受债务置换等因素扰动下的信贷增速。 "基本面压力逐步显现下央行延续呵护才是常态，伴随税期以及双11等影响因素消失，资金价格仍旧会 回归低位稳定。伴随货币宽松预期逐渐发酵，存单利率可能向下突破震荡区间，建议在当前点位上延续 平配即可。"财通证券分析称。 本周（11月17日-21日）7天逆回购到期规模由4958亿元上升至11220亿元；周一央行将开展8000亿元6M 买断式逆回购操作，全月买断式逆回 ...

国债期货长端表现稍强，周内先上后下，30年期主力合约全周上涨0.11%，10年期主力合约下跌0.06%，5年期主力合约下跌0.04%，2年 期主力合约下跌0.02%。 中证转债指数全周震荡上行，逼近前高，周线上涨0.52%，收盘报491.71。 一级市场 新华财经北京11月17日电（王柘）上周（2025年11月10日至11月14日）资金面边际收紧，债市横盘震荡。10年期国债活跃券收益率收于 1.805%，变动-0.1BP，全周振幅不足1.5BP。央行发布10月金融数据整体偏弱，信贷增速延续回落，三季度货币政策执行报告影响较中 性。债市行情明朗仍有待更多信号。 行情回顾 2025年11月14日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年11月7日分别变动 0.59BP、-0.25BP、-0.52BP、-0.57BP、-0.1BP、-0.02BP、-1BP、4.8BP。 | | | 中 债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 11月7日 | 11月14日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1 ...

2025 年全球股市呈现出 "局部联动、整体分化" 的特征，理解不同市场间的关联逻辑，能帮助投资者更全面地把握全球投资机会。从全年表现来看，美股纳 斯达克指数累计上涨 22.3%，欧洲斯托克 50 指数上涨 18.7%，日本日经 225 指数上涨 25.1%，印度孟买 Sensex 指数上涨 19.5%，虽然涨幅存在差异，但在 关键节点的走势呈现出明显联动性，接下来，由湖南金证的小编为大家讲解下。 货币政策是驱动全球股市联动的核心因素。2025 年 3 月美联储宣布首次降息 25 个基点，随后欧洲央行、英国央行同步跟进，全球流动性宽松预期升温，当 月美股、欧股、日股单月涨幅均超过 5%，其中纳斯达克指数单月上涨 7.2%，日经 225 指数上涨 6.8%，这种同步上涨正是流动性宽松带来的联动效应。反 之，当 6 月美国公布通胀数据超预期时，全球主要股市均出现回调，纳斯达克指数单月下跌 3.5%，欧洲斯托克 50 指数下跌 4.1%，反映出美联储政策动向 对全球市场的 "牵一发而动全身" 作用。 全球产业链关联进一步强化联动性。2025 年二季度，全球半导体行业需求回暖，美国半导体巨头英伟达季度营收同比增长 4 ...

技术面中，英镑兑美元于1.3080-1.3220区间震荡，趋势待基本面指引。指数自10月高点回落，现依托30 日均线（1.3100附近）震荡，均线粘合显示多空胶着。支撑位重点看1.3080（前期平台下沿），破位将 下探1.3000及1.2950；阻力位聚焦1.3220（20日均线共振），突破可上看1.3300-1.3350。指标上， MACD绿柱收窄、KDJ金叉但未脱离弱势，空方动能减弱但反弹有限。未来一周，英、美经济数据成关 键：英数据向好助英镑冲1.3300，若数据疲弱或美数据强劲，英镑恐破1.3080续跌。操作建议区间高抛 低吸，严设止损，待破位信号确立头寸。 货币政策上，英国央行虽维持高利率以抑制通胀，但经济下行风险使市场预期其后续降息时点可能早于 美联储，利差优势逐步收窄削弱英镑吸引力。美元方面，美联储政策分歧导致美元指数走弱，一定程度 上缓解了英镑的下行压力，但未能扭转英镑的弱势格局，反映出市场对英国经济的悲观预期更为强烈。 英镑兑美元技术分析 周一（11月17日）英镑兑美元在上周五一直处于守势阶段，当前英国经济内生性压力与美元弱势格局的 博弈中震荡走弱，当前交投于1.3161附近。英国经济基本面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

人民网北京11月17日电 （记者黄盛）据中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）此前发布的公开市场买断式 逆回购招标公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，11月17日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 据介绍，今年11月，6个月期买断式逆回购到期量为3000亿元，该期限买断式逆回购实现加量续做5000 亿元。此前，央行还对3个月期买断式逆回购实行了等量续做。11月还将有9000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）到期。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，11月份MLF（中期借贷便利）到期规模为9000亿元，本月买断式逆 回购净投放增加，也用于缓解MLF的续做压力。 "今年以来，央行综合运用多种货币政策工具，既保持流动性'适度宽松'又维持'不满不溢'。"中国民生 银行首席经济学家温彬表示，后续看，在年内稳增长诉求加大、财政加力下，货币政策的协同性将进一 步加强，资金面有望保持宽松状态。 也有业内人士表示，买断式逆回购与常规质押式逆回购在市场调节中存在核心机制差异。前者是央行向 一级交易商买入债券并持有至到期，其间可自由处置（如再融资、做空），可增强市场流动性深度， ...