为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行8月22日发布公告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，期限为1年期。鉴于8月有3000亿元MLF到期， 本月央行MLF净投放将达到3000亿元，为连续第六个月加量续作。 公开市场国债买卖操作、公开市场买断式逆回购操作以及MLF操作，是央行根据一级交易商需求在连 续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资金。在本次MLF操作前，8月央行已通过买断 式逆回购累计净投放3000亿元。综合来看，两项工具在8月合计释放中期流动性6000亿元，为今年2月以 来的最大净投放规模，继续展现出央行适度宽松的货币政策取向。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向证券时报记者指出，8月中期流动性净投放规模扩大的原因在于现阶段 处于政府债券持续发行的高峰期。同时，近期中长端市场利率普遍上行，银行体系流动性有所收紧，央 行通过MLF等工具加大资金投放，也有助于稳定市场预期，保持市场流动性充裕。 自今年3月MLF回归流动性投放工具定位以来，央行持续保持加量续作。央行在一季度货币政策执行报 告中曾指出，MLF招投标机制完善后，由操作当天发布结 ...

王青认为，在三季度外部波动及经济增长动能变化有待进一步观察的背景下，短期内降准的概率较小， 央行更可能通过MLF和买断式逆回购等政策工具保持市场流动性充裕。他预计，接下来MLF还会加量 续作，并结合买断式逆回购操作，持续向市场注入中期流动性。(完) 中新社北京8月22日电 (记者夏宾)中国央行22日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，其将于8月25 日(周一)以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元(人民币，下同)中期借款便利(MLF) 操作，期限为1年期。 考虑到本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着8月央行MLF净投放达到3000亿元，符合市场预期，为连续 第六个月加量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，在5月降准释放长期流动性1万亿元之后，近三个月中期流动性持续 处于净投放状态，且8月净投放规模显著扩大。主要有三个原因。 一是现阶段处于政府债券持续发行高峰期，同时监管层也在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。 二是受"反内卷"牵动市场预期，以及股市走强等因素影响，近期中长端市场利率普遍上行，银行体系流 动性有所收紧，央行通过MLF等政策工具加大资金投放，有助于稳定市场预期，保持市场流动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is continuing to inject liquidity into the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including a significant increase in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, to support economic growth and stabilize market expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On August 25, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1]. - The net injection of liquidity in August is 600 billion, following a net injection of 300 billion from previous operations [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Increased Liquidity - The increase in MLF operations is attributed to three main factors: the peak period of government bond issuance, the need for financial institutions to enhance credit supply, and rising medium to long-term market interest rates [2]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support credit expansion and meet financing needs of enterprises and households [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term is low, with the PBOC expected to maintain liquidity through MLF and reverse repo operations [3]. - There is a possibility of further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in the fourth quarter, depending on external conditions and domestic economic indicators [3].

鲍威尔表示："由于政策处于限制性区域，基线前景和风险平衡的转变可能需要调整我们的政策立场。" 鲍威尔指出，当前美国经济仍具韧性，劳动力市场接近充分 就业，通胀虽从疫情后高点回落但仍处高位，2025年上半年GDP增速从去年同期增长2.5%放缓至1.2%，同时面临关税重塑全球贸易、移民政策放缓劳动力增长的 结构性挑战。而短期货币政策强调"谨慎推进"，政策利率较一年前更接近中性水平100个基点，处于限制性区间且无预设路径，需平衡通胀上行与就业下行风险。 鲍威尔发声后，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注。交易员们恢复完全消化美联储年底前降息两次。 盘面上，美股三大股指早盘大幅拉升，截至发稿，道指、纳指涨近2%，标普500指数涨超1.5%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2.5%。 降息大消息。 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行行长年会上发表演讲。演讲围绕两大议题：当前美国经济状况与短期货币政策展望、美联储第 二次货币政策框架公开评估结果。 | 0 1 03 | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 45669.45 | +1.97% | | .D ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风 险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。 鲍威尔在演讲开头就指出："风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。" 然后他说： "失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定使我们能谨慎考虑政策立场的调整。然而，由于政策 处于限制性区间，基准前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场。" 评论认为，鲍威尔提到，失业率等劳动力市场指标稳定让美联储能谨慎考虑调整货币政策立场，这为9 月降息敞开了大门。 他说： 在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的经济研讨会"转型中的劳动力市场：人口结构、生产力与宏观经济政 策"上的讲话，怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔 今年以来，美国经济在经济政策剧烈变动的背景下展现出了韧性。就美联储双重使命的目标而言，劳动 力市场依然接近最大就业水平，通胀虽仍有些偏高，但较疫情后高点已大幅下降。与此同时，风险平衡 似乎正在发生转变。 在我今天的讲话中，我将首先谈论当前的经济形势和货币政策的短期前景，随后转向我们第二次对货币 政策框架进行公开审查的结果，这些内容已经在我们今天发布的《长期目标和货币政策战略声明修订 版》中有所体现。 当前经济状况 ...

美国总统特朗普周五表示，若美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）不主动辞职，他将解雇她。这番言论 是特朗普对美联储施压行动的最新升级。数月来，他一直因美联储维持利率稳定的决策而抨击该机构。 埃德·马丁（Ed Martin）——一位被广泛认为是总统亲信的司法部律师——还曾敦促鲍威尔迅速罢免库 克，尽管根据法律，美联储主席无权这么做。 管辖美联储的法律《联邦储备法》（Federal Reserve Act）第10条规定，美联储理事会成员可"因正当理 由被罢免"。今年以来，特朗普已多次威胁解雇鲍威尔。美国最高法院5月曾表明，特朗普不能在无正当 理由的情况下解雇美联储理事会成员（包括鲍威尔）。 普尔特周四在彭博电视台表示，他 向 美国司法部提交库克涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈的刑事移送函，是更广泛打 击房贷欺诈行动的一部分，并补充称，联邦当局将调查此事，且不受调查对象政治立场的影响。司法部 周四证实将对库克展开调查。 目前美联储7位理事中，有两位是特朗普任命的，包括克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和米歇尔· 鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）。在美联储最近一次维持利率不变的决策中，两人均投下了反对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions and Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased significantly from pandemic highs [5][6]. - Powell noted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising downside risks to employment [3][8]. - GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [8]. Labor Market Insights - Recent employment reports show a slowdown in job growth, averaging only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months, significantly lower than the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [7][8]. - Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, it remains historically low, with other labor market indicators showing little change [7][8]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell highlighted that short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [4][10]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past year, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [8][9]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will lead to sustained inflation, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [9][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments based on evolving economic data and risk assessments [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's framework emphasizes the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with recent revisions aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability [11][15]. Framework Review and Adjustments - The review of the monetary policy framework reflects changes in economic conditions over the past five years, acknowledging the need for flexibility in response to evolving challenges [15][19]. - Key changes include the removal of language emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economic environment, and a return to a flexible inflation target framework [16][17]. - The revised consensus statement aims to clarify the approach to balancing employment and inflation targets during periods of conflict [18][19].

Economic Situation and Short-term Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy adjustments, with the labor market close to full employment and inflation down from pandemic peaks, although still slightly above target [1][2] - The current economic challenges include increased tariffs reshaping global trade, tightened immigration policies slowing labor growth, and potential long-term impacts from tax, spending, and regulatory changes [2][3] - The labor market has seen a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 non-farm jobs added monthly over the past three months, compared to an expected average of 168,000 for 2024 [3] Inflation and GDP Growth - GDP growth has notably slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, about half of the projected 2.5% growth for 2024, primarily due to a decrease in consumer spending [4] - Inflation pressures are evident, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rising by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary trends [4][5] - Tariffs are contributing to rising prices, with the potential for these price increases to lead to more sustained inflation dynamics, although current labor market conditions may mitigate this risk [5] Monetary Policy Framework Evolution - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is evolving to adapt to changing economic conditions, emphasizing the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [7][11] - The revised consensus statement reflects lessons learned from recent economic experiences, including the need for clear communication regarding monetary policy strategies in varying economic environments [11][12] - Key adjustments in the framework include a shift away from emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economy and a return to a flexible inflation targeting approach [12][13] Long-term Economic Considerations - The revised framework acknowledges that the long-term neutral interest rate may be higher than in previous decades, influenced by factors such as productivity, demographics, and fiscal policy [11][15] - The commitment to a 2% long-term inflation target remains central to maintaining long-term inflation expectations, which is crucial for achieving the dual mandate [15][16] - The Federal Reserve plans to continue conducting public assessments of its framework approximately every five years to ensure alignment with evolving economic conditions [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with expectations of a rate cut in September and potential further cuts by the end of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's statements, as any deviation from expected dovishness could lead to market volatility [1]. - If Powell indicates a more conservative rate cut path than anticipated, U.S. stocks may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an overly optimistic outlook [1]. - Conversely, if Powell suggests a more dovish approach, it could provide a boost to major companies' future earnings, positively impacting the stock market [2]. Group 2: Scenarios of Powell's Speech - Scenario 1: If Powell's comments are more hawkish than expected, it could lead to a market correction as investors reassess their positions [1]. - Scenario 2: A dovish stance from Powell, while beneficial for overall market sentiment, may lead to a rotation within the stock market, potentially sidelining leading tech stocks [2]. - Scenario 3: If Powell's remarks align with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another by year-end, the market reaction could range from neutral to negative due to profit-taking behavior [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Environment - The market continues to fluctuate based on interest rate-sensitive information, highlighting the critical role of monetary policy in the current economic landscape [5].

由于当月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着MLF净投放量达3000亿元，为连续第六个月加量续做。 "这显示出政策的连续性。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，货币政策延续支持性立场，持续向市场 注入中期流动性，有利于稳定市场预期，保持市场流动性充裕。（完） 新华社北京8月22日电（记者任军、吴雨）中国人民银行22日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充 裕，8月25日中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 ...