2026.03. 17 本文字数：1380，阅读时长大约2分钟 题图 | 图源：新华社 澳大利亚联储17日如市场预期连续第二次上调基准利率，将利率上调25个基点至4.1%，创下自2025 年4月以来的最高水平。 2月，由于市场担心通胀根深蒂固，澳大利亚联储成为今年发达经济体中首个收紧货币政策的央行。 此后，中东冲突升级加剧了通胀担忧。不过，此次加息决定仅以微弱多数通过，五票赞成，四票反 对。 此次加息最大的原因在于，澳大利亚通胀率持续高于该行设定的3%上限，而中东冲突可能导致物价 进一步上涨。澳大利亚储备银行在声明中表示："尽管通胀率自2022年峰值已大幅下降，但在2025年 下半年出现显著回升。"该行补充称，尽管中东局势仍存在高度不确定性，但可能会加剧全球和澳大 利亚国内通胀，且澳大利亚通胀水平可能在"一段时间内"保持在目标水平以上，风险进一步上行，因 此有必要加息"。 声明还强调，"澳大利亚的货币政策已做好充分准备应对各种形势发展，货币委员会仍将专注于实现 价格稳定和充分就业的双重使命，将采取一切必要措施来实现这一目标。" 去年第四季度，澳大利亚的通胀率为3.6%。按月计算，1月通胀率为3.8%，略高于此 ...

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Economic Growth Target - The government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, which is seen as reasonable and not conservative. However, achieving this target may be challenging due to weak consumption, real estate drag, and declining capital returns [7][8] - The slowdown in China's GDP growth is viewed as a structural and long-term trend, but the pace of decline is relatively mild compared to other major economies [8][9] Investment Expansion - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments, increasing from 500 billion yuan last year, which is expected to leverage an additional 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan in funds [10][11] - The total investment from these instruments, combined with other financial tools, could reach 1.3 trillion yuan, significantly enhancing project capital [10][11] Consumption and Real Estate - "Boosting consumption" remains a top priority, with plans to implement a 100 billion yuan special fund to support consumer loans and financing guarantees [12] - The real estate market is expected to take time to recover, with policies likely to be implemented on a city-by-city basis [12] Capital Market Insights - The capital market is seen as having a limited but positive impact on economic growth, particularly in supporting strategic sectors like AI and semiconductors [13] - The role of the stock market should not be overestimated as a substitute for fiscal and monetary policies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of corporate medium and long-term loans remains to be observed, with improvements in February attributed to a more balanced credit issuance rhythm in January and a low base effect from early debt resolution last year [6][43]. Financial Data Summary - On March 13, the central bank released China's financial data for February 2026, showing a year-on-year decline in credit balance growth by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%, while the stock of social financing remained flat at 8.2%, and M1 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9% [5][10]. - In February, new credit totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans down by 261.6 billion yuan and non-bank loans down by 294.9 billion yuan. In contrast, corporate medium and long-term loans increased by 350 billion yuan [8][45]. - Social financing saw a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan in February, primarily driven by a 195.6 billion yuan increase in RMB loans, while government bonds decreased by 290.3 billion yuan due to a high base effect from the same period in 2025 [16][28]. - M1 improved, likely due to the impact of the Spring Festival on household demand deposits, with a notable increase in consumption during the holiday period further amplifying this effect. The growth in household demand deposits is expected to be a key driver for M1 improvement [18][44]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Future monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in response to economic conditions. The government work report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and optimize structural tools [7][24]. Regular Monitoring - In February, the structure of deposits showed that household deposits increased by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits decreased by 1.76 trillion yuan and fiscal deposits decreased by 1.6076 trillion yuan [34][45]. - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 9.0%, indicating a steady financial environment supported by increased fiscal spending and a significant drop in fiscal deposits [34][44].

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 17 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率全线抬升，十年国债收益率上行幅度在 2bp 以内，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃券 250016 收益率报 1.8350%上行 1.7bp。 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货3月16日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a strong start for the national economy in the first two months of the year, with key indicators showing significant recovery and exceeding market expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1][3] - From the demand side, three major growth drivers have shown improvement, particularly in foreign trade, with exports increasing by 21.8% year-on-year in January-February, benefiting from improved global demand and enhanced competitiveness of Chinese products [1][2] - Consumer demand has rebounded moderately, with total retail sales of consumer goods growing by 2.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 0.9%, driven by a long holiday period that boosted service consumption [1][2] Group 2 - Investment has reversed its previous downward trend, with fixed asset investment increasing by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 3.8% for the entire previous year, supported by new special bonds and major projects [2][3] - Industrial production has accelerated, with the industrial added value growing by 6.3% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand and enhanced exports, alongside significant growth in the computer and electronic equipment manufacturing sectors [2][3] - The government has set a more modest annual growth target of 4.5-5.0%, down from the previous target of around 5.0%, to allow for structural adjustments and risk prevention, aligning with long-term economic growth potential [3][4] Group 3 - Monetary policy is expected to be flexibly and efficiently implemented, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy tools to support economic stability and growth [4] - The government plans to expand domestic demand as a primary focus, with measures including a special bond of 250 billion yuan to support consumption and increased central budget investments [4] - Despite facing challenges, the long-term supportive conditions for the economy remain intact, with expectations for steady progress throughout the year [4]

Group 1: Credit and Financing - Credit is the main contributor to the increase in social financing, with February social financing showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6 trillion yuan, which is 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year[13] - Corporate credit performance continues to outperform the household sector, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for enterprises significantly better than the same period in 2025[4] - Government bond financing has become a drag on social financing, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 300 billion yuan in February due to a high base and fewer trading days during the Spring Festival[14] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Fiscal Policy - M2 growth rate remained stable at 9% year-on-year, while M1 growth rate expanded, indicating strong fiscal spending at the beginning of the year[21] - The net increase in fiscal deposits for January-February was 1.2 trillion yuan, with government bond financing at 2.4 trillion yuan, showing a decrease of 400 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025[22] - The government work report emphasizes the importance of fiscal and monetary coordination, proposing a special fund of 100 billion yuan for promoting domestic demand and clarifying a scale of 800 billion yuan for policy financial tools[30] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Future risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[31] - The probability of comprehensive interest rate cuts remains low, as the government work report indicates a commitment to structural monetary policy tools[30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the bond market lacks substantial bullish drivers, but the low - fluctuating capital prices, the mediocre profit - making effect of the equity market, and the relatively weak domestic demand support the bond market. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to changes in external demand and the central bank's liquidity injection attitude [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Comprehensive Analysis** - February's macro indicators were generally better than expected. Strong external demand and high corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness drove the improvement of industrial product prices, corporate financing, and currency activation. However, the household sector continued to "shrink its balance sheet," and the price index structure remained differentiated, indicating weak domestic terminal demand. In March, there was a divergence between overseas leading indicators and domestic high - frequency data, and the sustainability of strong external demand needs further observation [6] - The market liquidity was balanced this week, and news of stricter self - regulation of non - bank current deposit pricing helped keep certificate of deposit rates low. Next week, the tax period and increased government bond net payment may cause fluctuations in the market liquidity. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity injection is crucial. Recently, the central bank has shown a net withdrawal of long - term funds, with a cumulative reduction of 300 billion yuan in the renewal of repurchase agreements this month. Although external factors pushing up short - term inflation are unlikely to change the loose monetary policy, the central bank may be more cautious in liquidity management [6] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [8] Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Credit and Social Financing** - In February, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic loan balances was 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, the same as the previous month. The corporate sector's financing demand improved, with a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, up 0.27 percentage points. The government and household sectors' financing growth rates were 16.6% and 0.23% respectively, down 0.7 and 0.31 percentage points [12] - **Money Supply** - In February, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. The increase in currency activation may be due to strong external demand and high corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness. Non - bank financial institutions' deposits reached a record high in the same period [17] - **Foreign Trade** - From January to February, China's exports and imports increased by 21.8% and 19.8% respectively year - on - year in US dollars, far exceeding market expectations. However, in the first two weeks of March, the year - on - year growth of port cargo throughput was not significant, and the sustainability of strong external demand needs further observation [19][23] - **Inflation** - In February, PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and + 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month. The price of upstream and mid - stream production materials was the main driver of the increase. CPI and core CPI increased by 1.3% and 1.8% year - on - year respectively, up 1.1 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the Spring Festival factor [28][30] - **Industrial Production** - This week, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt, olefins, PTA, and PVC were 23.0%, 78.44%, 80.33%, and 81.35% respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.3, + 0.73, + 0.64, and + 0.24 percentage points. Some petrochemical operating rates were weaker than seasonal levels, while some coal - chemical products' operating rates were at seasonal highs [36] - **Real Estate** - The real estate market in March was fair. The sales area of new houses in 30 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of second - hand house sales in five cities have basically returned to the same period last year. However, the "price - for - volume" strategy in the second - hand housing market may still be ongoing, with the week - on - week decline of the second - hand housing listing price index continuing for the second week [42] - **Market Liquidity** - This week, the market liquidity was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were 1.3216% and 1.4616% respectively. The long - term capital interest rate of joint - stock banks' 1 - year certificates of deposit fluctuated around 1.55 - 1.56%. Next week, the tax period and increased government bond net payment may cause liquidity fluctuations. The central bank's attitude is crucial, as it has shown a net withdrawal of long - term funds recently [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures Valuation and Positioning** - As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3488%, 1.4253%, 1.3778%, and 1.6407% respectively. The net long - position ratios of the top ten seats in TS, TF, T, and TL were - 21.35%, - 5.34%, - 1.12%, and - 4.89% respectively, with changes of + 2.36, + 2.44, + 0.17, and - 1.91 percentage points compared to last Friday [53][54] - **Other Data** - The report also provides data on the price spreads between treasury bond futures contracts, trading volume and open interest, spot bond yields and spreads, and US treasury bond yields and exchange rates [62][65][68][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side inflation pressure won't change the overall mid - term trend of the bond market. But for long - term interest rates to return to the downward range, the market needs to reach a consensus that inflation won't affect the monetary policy orientation, with the most direct sign being the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Currently, the bond market may remain in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration for further observation. The risks of medium - short - term and credit bonds are relatively limited [9][77]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PPI earliest to turn positive in March, CPI peak may be in May under the benchmark assumption - This week, the bond market adjusted, and the yield curve steepened significantly. The sharp rise in oil prices and the unexpectedly high February CPI and PPI data led to a significant adjustment in long - term interest rates. The February inflation increase was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor. The CPI increase was almost entirely contributed by food, transportation and communication, and education, culture and entertainment. After the Spring Festival, the prices of agricultural products declined, and without considering oil prices, the February CPI increase was not sustainable. The February PPI decline narrowed, mainly driven by the non - ferrous and petrochemical industries, and the transmission of commodity price increases to the downstream was still not smooth [2][13][14]. - Two scenarios for the future development of the Iranian situation were assumed. In both scenarios, PPI is expected to return to around 0 in March, with the peak likely to appear around June. For CPI, under scenario 1, the peak may occur in May, and under scenario 2, the peak may approach 2.5% [25][27]. Inflation's impact on the bond market needs to be transmitted through monetary policy. Currently, for long - term interest rates to return to the downward trend, more explicit monetary policy is needed - Historically, inflation's impact on the bond market needs to be transmitted through monetary policy. In China, low inflation has been a problem for monetary policy, and inflation is not a short - term constraint on monetary easing. In 2019 and 2021, high CPI and PPI did not prevent the central bank from implementing easing policies [30]. - Recently, the central bank's attitude has shown some marginal changes. It no longer mentions that the alleviation of bank interest margin pressure creates space for interest rate cuts, and the Financial Times no longer mentions the possibility of total - volume tools cooperating with wide - fiscal policies. Although the central bank is unlikely to tighten liquidity in the short term, long - term interest rates need more explicit monetary policy signals to decline further [33][35][36]. Wait for the market trading focus to shift from growth to stagnation - The strong export in January - February was affected by the Spring Festival factor. Even after excluding this factor, the export growth rate was still at a relatively strong level of 13%. The strong export was related to the systematic increase in exports of industries such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships, as well as price factors. However, domestic demand was relatively weak, with low growth rates in fixed - asset investment and consumer retail [38][44][46]. - The February financial data showed that the new social financing was higher than the same period last year, but the new RMB credit decreased year - on - year. Although the year - on - year increase in corporate medium - and long - term loans brought expectations of economic activity recovery, it was also affected by the Spring Festival factor. The decline in non - bank loans and bill financing may reflect the regulatory authorities' reduced demand for credit impulse [49][54]. - If oil prices remain high, it may suppress the transmission of upstream price increases and squeeze the profits of downstream enterprises, and the impact on the overseas economy may also reduce the support of overseas demand for the domestic economy. The impact of the current supply shock may be greater than that in 2022 [60][61][62]. After the pre - emptive action, the certificate of deposit interest rate needs a decline in non - bank financing costs to cooperate - The news of stricter inter - bank current deposit self - regulation led to a significant decline in short - term interest rates. However, the decline in the certificate of deposit interest rate last week may have reflected the pre - emptive action of some non - bank institutions. The central level of the certificate of deposit interest rate needs to be compared with the actual non - bank financing cost [66]. - After the self - regulation becomes stricter, the average interest rate of non - bank inter - bank current deposits may be slightly higher than 1.4%, and the lower limit of the actual non - bank fund lending price may be around 1.45%. The central level of the 1 - year certificate of deposit interest rate can further decline only if the non - bank financing cost decreases, which can be observed through the change in the non - bank institution's lending volume [68]. How the bond market should respond to the early - arriving inflation shock - The supply - side inflation pressure won't change the overall mid - term trend of the bond market. For long - term interest rates to return to the downward range, the market needs to reach a consensus that inflation won't affect the monetary policy orientation. Currently, the bond market may remain in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration for further observation. There may be trading opportunities in the long - term after the continuous adjustment this week, but it is necessary to enter and exit quickly and stop profit in a timely manner. The risks of medium - short - term and credit bonds are relatively limited [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - end of the treasury bond market declined last week. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal tightened the short - term funds, leading to an increase in short - term interest rates. The unchanged US prices, combined with the tense Middle East situation pushing up oil prices, increased inflation expectations, causing US treasury bond yields to continue rising and market volatility to intensify. China's foreign trade returned to double - digit growth in the first two months of this year, and financial data remained high, increasing capital activity. Affected by the Spring Festival and rising international commodity prices, the CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations in both month - on - month and year - on - year terms. The government bond scale in the government work report is the largest in recent years, and the monetary policy continues to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently. Although the economic growth target in the government work report has been lowered and the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the volatile equity market supports short - end treasury bond futures prices, better - than - expected price data and rising commodity prices will continue to put pressure on long - end treasury bond futures prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally fell in the previous trading day. For example, the T2606 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed various changes, such as the open interest of TS2606 increasing by 400, while that of T2606 decreasing by 6426 [2] - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined in the previous trading day. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 0.8bp, the DR007 rate dropped 0.87bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 0.7bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y - term treasury bond yield rose 0.76bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.32bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: In the previous trading day, the US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 5.4bp [2] Macro News - **Monetary Policy Operations**: The central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on March 16, 1000 billion yuan less than the maturity amount. There will be 1765 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse - repurchases will mature on Monday [3] - **Policy Release**: The "15th Five - Year Plan Outline" was officially released on March 13, which is the "blueprint" for China's economic and social development in the next five years. The State Council executive meeting discussed and passed the "Division of Key Work in 2026" and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [3] - **Economic and Trade Negotiations**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France to hold the sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations with the US from March 14 - 17. The Chinese side has made representations to the US regarding the 301 investigation [3] - **Economic Data**: In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.2% year - on - year. The average interest rates of new corporate loans and new individual housing loans in February were both about 3.1% [3] - **International Situation**: US President Trump said that Iran was willing to negotiate a cease - fire but the conditions were not good enough, so the US would not reach a cease - fire agreement with Iran for the time being. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran had never requested a cease - fire and would continue to defend [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: Money market interest rates showed mixed changes. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank deposit market decreased for 1 - day, 7 - day, and 14 - day varieties, and increased for 1 - month variety. The weighted average inter - bank lending rate decreased for 1 - day and 7 - day varieties and increased for 14 - day and 1 - month varieties [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US treasury bond yields showed mixed changes. The yields of 2 - year and 3 - year US treasury bonds decreased, while the yields of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US treasury bonds increased [3]