Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On April 10, the polyester industry chain rebounded across the board, with the main contracts of PX/PTA/PF/PR rising by 5.31%, 4.97%, 5.41%, and 4.11% respectively. The main reason was that Trump halted the reciprocal tariffs that took effect on April 9 and implemented a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on countries that did not take retaliatory actions for trade negotiations [1]. - The compromise on tariff issues led to a significant rebound in risk assets on Wednesday night, with oil prices rebounding about 10% from the low, driving the overall rebound of downstream energy - chemical products. Although direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, indirect orders from Southeast Asia resumed shipping on Thursday, and the 90 - day buffer period might increase subsequent rush - export and re - export orders, partially offsetting the negative impact of high tariffs on China [1]. - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs offset some negative demand impacts, but direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, and the demand expectation for textiles and clothing was still weak. Attention should be paid to further changes in trade policies [1]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [9][10][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][69][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, be cautious about short - selling PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging. Although the US relaxed the intensity of reciprocal tariffs on other countries, the China - US trade war might further escalate, and the US might threaten other countries to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and semi - finished products. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations in traditional re - export countries such as Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh. In the medium term, trade protection would bring uncertainty to global economic growth, and there was a risk of further decline in oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a light position and be cautious [4][5] - Cross - variety: Go long on MEG and short on PTA - Cross - period: No relevant strategy provided

签署了上调进口汽车关税行政令的美国总统特朗普（reuters） 从日本进口的汽车也将成为对象。发动机等关键零部件也将成为对象。日本对美国出口商品 中最多的是汽车，2024年的汽车出口额为6.0261万亿日元，占对美出口总额的28.3%…… 发动机和变速箱也成为对象 新关税的对象为所有非美国国内生产的汽车。不仅包括乘用车，还包括SUV和皮卡等部分卡车。 白宫透露，对发动机、变速箱和动力总成等关键零部件也将征收25%的关税。 对于符合美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定（USMCA）条件的汽车零部件，将暂时豁免关税。一旦美国政府完 成系统调整等，将根据美国产材料的使用比例，减少关税的负担比例。 美国政府高级官员表示，针对目前根据美墨加协定从加拿大墨西哥免税进口的汽车，将根据使用多少美 国造零部件来调整税率。例如，如果整车全部零部件的一半为美国造，将征收相当于25%一半的12.5% 的关税。 一系列的关税上调为基于美国《贸易扩大法》第232条的措施。为了确保安全保障，将限制汽车进口。 白宫高级官员表示，新关税预计每年将带来超过1000亿美元的税收。 美国总统特朗普3月26日宣布，将对进口汽车加征25%的关税。这将是一项不设期限 ...

要点 2016年美国大选特朗普首次胜选后，我们发布了报告指出"祸水外引"的风险（2016年12月7日《祸水东 引》）。今年特朗普再次胜选，其政策主张进一步引发市场关注。特朗普主张"加关税、减税收"，通过对 外构筑贸易壁垒、对内减税的方式吸引制造业回流美国，并实现美国的再工业化。这些主张与他在上一任 期的政策保持一致。然而， 无论从美国外部环境还是内部情况来看，本轮都与上一轮有所 不同。 特朗普1.0版本所面临的内政外交空间相对宽裕。 2016年，特朗普意外赢得大选，意味着美国持续"金融 化"带来的贫富差距扩大正加剧内部矛盾。尽管如此，特朗普"财政刺激+贸易保护"的1.0版本可实施政策 空间仍较现在大：一是通胀和美国债务水平均偏低；二是地缘问题对美国内政外交和两党的影响没有现在 那么突出。 相比特朗普上一任期，从国际环境来看，当前，尽管美国仍被普遍认为是"超级大国"，但其国际影响力正 在减弱。 相比2016年，美国经济、工业、贸易等多维度指标在全球中的份额均出现下降。而在这个阶 段，新兴市场国家的实力不断增强，新兴经济体GDP全球占比明显提升，区域性的贸易协定也持续增多。 同时，包括俄乌冲突在内的地缘冲突指向尽 ...

高关税和美国经济、外交利益存在矛盾。 在经济方面，高关税难以弥补减税带来的财政缺口，财政赤 字仍可能大幅扩张。短期内，进口需求难以迅速减少，关税成本大概率会被转嫁给消费者，推高国内价 格水平。中长期来看，即使企业回流，美国制造业并不具备竞争优势，反而可能引发成本推动型通胀上 升，进而对联储政策空间形成制约。在外交方面，高关税可能引发美国与他国、特别是盟国间的利益冲 突。一旦引发国与国之间竞相加征关税，则可能导致全球需求萎缩。 要点 特朗普的竞选策略延续了其第一任期的风格，尤以贸易保护和大规模减税引人关注。这一"增关税、减 税收"的组合，意在财政上取得平衡，更重要的是通过对外筑起贸易壁垒、对内减税放松，来吸引制造 业回流，推动美国再工业化。然而，特朗普的政策主张可能存在多个矛盾。 "再工业化"与市场规律间存在矛盾。 战后，美国逐渐从"工业强国"转向"金融强国"，从"生产者"转型为 "财务投资者"。这一转变主要由市场力量推动，本质上是美国对外投资的收益率显著高于本土投资。当 前，美国生产成本高企，美国制造业回流并不符合资本利益，换句话说，单凭市场力量实现难度较大。 而如果美国逆市场力量推动制造业回流，可能需要投入 ...