孙长忠(清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员) 美联储当年对通胀形势的判断也部分来自预测的问题。去年鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔总结本轮通胀时称当时 大多数经济学家包括全球各主要央行都预测通胀是暂时性的。今年对关税的通胀影响，鲍威尔6月在国 会听证时再次强调几乎所有机构和经济学家都预测关税增加将推动通胀上涨。但这些预测过于依赖理论 模型而忽略了复杂现实，甚至用理论裁剪现实，在实践中并不时常管用。这一情况还体现在疫情后经济 迅速恢复并引起通胀上升，美联储仍把最大就业放在首位，忽视了疫情后劳动参与率下降和补助造成就 业难以恢复。修订版声明指出充分就业是"在价格稳定背景下可长期维持的最高就业水平"。鲍威尔强 调："我们继续相信为就业设定数字目标是不明智的，因为充分就业的最高水平不能直接测量，并且由 于与货币政策无关的原因随时间变化。" 以上几个问题的共同之处在于忽视了美国本轮经济周期不同于以往的最大特殊性：此次危机的源头或许 不是美国经济金融内生因素，而是疫情外部冲击。当然这些都是事后分析总结，现实决策很难精准。伴 随着鲍威尔的任期临近结束，美联储未来的政策将如何调整，值得重点观察。 这次美联储货币政策框架审查最重大的成果是放弃 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025年以来表现落后的美国股市，近期正试图追赶全球市场。周四，标普500指数再度 刷新历史收盘纪录，显示出强劲的反弹势头。 数据显示，标普500指数在过去三个月累计上涨10.4%，远超国际股市的表现。同期，追踪美国以外发达及 新兴市场的iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF仅上涨6%。标普500在今年4月因特朗普总统宣布关税计划一度 大幅下跌，但此后迅速反弹。历来推动美股跑赢全球的"大科技"板块，尤其是英伟达(NVDA.US)，依旧是 市场的关键动力。 Yardeni Research在周三晚间的一份报告中表示："今年早些时候美股的强势表现曾被短暂打断，但目前似 乎已经重回上升轨道，美国市场的回暖部分得益于优于预期的企业财报。" 值得注意的是，AI芯片巨头英伟达在周三盘后公布的第二财季业绩超出整体预期，但数据中心业务略低于 市场预期。受美国对英伟达H20芯片出口中国的限制影响，相关收入承压，导致股价周四下跌0.8%。不 过，标普500当日依然上涨0.3%，年内累计涨幅达10.5%。相比之下，ACWI ex U.S. ETF今年迄今上涨 20.9%，仍显著领先。 自20 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 虽然这有助于缓解人们对经济衰退的担忧，但也引发了人们对通胀前景的质疑。周五公布的报告预计将 显示，7月份不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数同比增长2.9%。这将是五个月以来的最快增 速。 与此同时，一项波动率指标触及12月中旬以来的最低水平。英伟达股价缩减跌幅，尽管预测不乐观，但 多位分析师上调了英伟达的目标价。 其他方面，对政策敏感的两年期国债收益率上升。与未来美联储利率决议挂钩的掉期合约继续充分反映 出美联储将在10月份降息一次，并在年底前再次降息。9月份的降息幅度约为20个基点。美元下跌。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 ...

《爱尔兰独立报》8月26日报道，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，美国提高关税不会破坏正处于复苏边 缘的欧元区经济。 拉加德周一在美国参加联邦储备系统年度研讨会。她表示，更高的关税对国内生产总值只会产 生"微小"的影响。尽管经济"不景气"，但"正逐步回归潜在增长""增长相对温和，但具有韧性，且呈上 升趋势，目前消费和投资等基本面状况良好。" 欧盟与美国最近达成的贸易协议并未在欧洲央行决策者中引起重大担忧。欧洲央行7月维持利率不 变，且下个月再次维持利率不变的可能性越来越大。德国央行主席约阿希姆·纳格尔周五表示，鉴于此 前已八次降息，进一步采取行动的门槛很高。 （原标题：欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，美国关税不会破坏欧元区经济） 在新关税生效前，欧元区第二季度意外实现了增长，8月份私营部门的活动以15个月来最快速度扩 张，制造商摆脱了三年的低迷。 更强劲的增长势头应有助于将通胀控制在欧洲央行2%的中长期目标之内。 拉加德强调，最新的通胀数据和中期预测均为2%。她表示，未来还会有更多冲击，但我们目前处 于有利地位。欧洲央行预计贸易协议对通胀的影响"非常轻微"。 ...

来源：环球市场播报 美妆护肤零售商 Bath & Body Works于周四公布，其二季度利润未达华尔街预期。目前该公司正面临消 费者非必需支出不确定性的挑战，而成本上涨进一步加剧了这一压力。 该公司股价在盘前交易中暴跌 6%。 Bath & Body Works 主营香水、香薰蜡烛等高定价产品。当前受通胀以及特朗普政府贸易政策负面影 响，消费者纷纷缩减开支，公司因此面临较大经营压力。 美国消费者支出在 6 月和 7 月均有增长，但受劳动力市场疲软及商品价格上涨影响，今年三季度消费增 长预计将受到制约。 为将产品定位为 "平价奢侈品" 及 "理想礼品"，Bath & Body Works 已加大营销与促销力度，例如推出以 迪士尼反派角色为主题的产品线（瞄准万圣节季销售），并推出陶瓷材质香薰蜡烛。 二季度，该公司的一般管理及门店运营费用达 4.83 亿美元，较去年同期增长 9%。 不过，与多数同行不同，Bath & Body Works 大部分商品采用本地采购模式，因此在很大程度上规避了 关税影响。 尽管如此，截至今年 2 月的数据显示，该公司供应链中仍有约 10% 依赖中国；加拿大与墨西哥合计占 比约 7%， ...

菲律宾央行下调关键政策利率至5.0% 系年内第三次降息 中新社马尼拉8月28日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾中央银行28日宣布，将关键政策利率下调25个基点至 5.0%。这是今年以来菲央行连续第三次降息。 与此同时，隔夜存款和贷款利率分别降至4.50%和5.50%。菲央行此前已于今年4月和6月分别降息25个 基点。自去年以来，该行已累计下调关键政策利率150个基点。 菲央行行长雷莫洛纳表示，当前通胀前景总体保持稳定，是本轮继续降息的主要依据。根据最新预测， 菲律宾2025年全年通胀预期为1.7%，较此前预测的1.6%略微上调；2026年和2027年通胀预期分别为 3.3%和3.4%，与此前的预测也基本保持一致。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 不过，菲央行也警告称，潜在的电价调整及大米关税政策变化或将推高通胀压力。近期菲律宾米价持续 回落，为保护本地稻农，菲政府自9月1日起暂停所 ...

周四，全球金融市场整体维持区间波动，投资者消化企业财报的同时，等待来自美国通胀的新信号。 股市整体保持稳健，而外汇与债市波动率则依旧受限，凸显出在美联储偏好通胀指标——个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数公布前的谨慎基调。 科技与人工智能板块焦点：英伟达财报超预期 市场焦点继续集中在科技板块，英伟达最新财报超出市场预期，强化了投资者对人工智能需求持续的乐 观情绪。尽管英伟达的乐观展望提振了市场信心，但投资者对进一步追高依然保持谨慎，广泛的科技股 指数在近期反弹后显示出一定疲态。 财报表现凸显出人工智能相关个股的强劲，同时也揭示了美国股市对集中度风险的敏感性。 外汇与债市波动平淡 在外汇市场上，美元窄幅震荡，投资者在PCE数据公布前大多选择观望。主要货币对也维持在紧窄区间 波动。 美债收益率小幅调整，但整体仍处于近期区间，反映出市场在押注美联储未来降息与对通胀持续性不确 定性之间的平衡。 PCE数据能否成为催化剂？ 展望未来，7月PCE物价指数将是本周最受关注的数据。一旦结果偏弱，可能强化市场对美联储今年晚 些时候更接近降息的预期；但若数据强劲，则可能重新引发对通胀粘性的担忧，并推迟市场对政策转向 的押注。 不过， ...

来源：滚动播报 欧洲央行管委雷恩：如果美联储的独立性受到破坏，通胀必然会上升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，上半年美国关税实际征收力度不及预期，企业提价的速 度也偏慢，使得通胀回升幅度相对温和。下半年美国实际进口平均税率将进一步抬升，企业提价速度或 将有所加快，在需求稳定的情况下，美国通胀或继续"慢热"起来。短期来看，"慢热"的通胀为美联储提 供了9月降息空间，但9月后是否能连续降息仍具有较高不确定性。 消费通胀：或逐步"慢热"。在商品中，汽车零部件、新车、服装鞋帽、家具陈设及用品等对进口的依赖 度较高。不过新车、服装鞋帽、个人护理、其他耐用品等分项目前关税传导仍不明显。总体来看，若年 内美国实际平均进口税率上升10%，在需求稳定的情况下，关税或将推升PCE同比增速至3.1%，推升核 心PCE同比增速至3.4%；而如果需求明显回落，则有助于缓解美国通胀压力。短期来看，"慢热"的通胀 为美联储提供了9月降息的空间，但9月后是否能开启连续降息仍具有较高不确定性。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 风险提示：美国就业市场持续恶化，特朗普对美联储施压力度增大 关税政策：税率加了多少？6月美国实际平均进口税率仅较2024年底上升6.6个百分点，明显不及市场预 期。美国进口结构的变化以及应税商 ...