| > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得19.8万人低于预期为12月以来新低，美国经济保持韧性，美联储多位 官员讲话对短期内降息持否定态度。美媒称特朗普哲缓决定是否对伊朗发动军事打击,短期避险情绪有所降 温,黄金表现抗跌,美国对于全球秩序的挑战令贵金属中期维持强势,多头思路不变。 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★ ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence could negatively impact inflation, as stated by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Goolsbee emphasized that any infringement on the independence of the central bank is problematic, warning that it could lead to a resurgence of inflation [2]. - He supported Powell's statement that inquiries into construction projects could be seen as political pressure from President Trump regarding interest rates [3][5]. Group 2: Powell's Tenure and Future - Powell's term as chair will end in May, but he can remain as a governor until 2028 [4]. - Goolsbee praised Powell as a "first-ballot Hall of Fame member" for managing to lower inflation without triggering a recession [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Goolsbee indicated that the Fed should focus on reducing inflation, given the strong employment market, and suggested that there is room for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation trends back to 2% [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity has improved across most districts, but cost pressures from tariffs persist [1] - Companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers due to depleted inventories and increased pressure to maintain profit margins [1] - Concerns are rising about inflationary pressures if companies continue to transfer costs to consumers, which could impact overall economic conditions in the U.S. [4] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing companies to be cautious in long-term production planning, potentially disrupting manufacturing investment [4] - The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in its monetary policy, as rising inflation from tariffs could prevent it from lowering interest rates to stimulate economic growth [4] - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the legality of the Trump administration's tariff policies, which has led to ongoing legal challenges [7] Group 3 - The legal basis for the tariffs is under scrutiny, particularly whether the invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act violates U.S. tariff laws [7] - If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, the government could face significant financial repercussions, including potential refunds amounting to hundreds of billions [8] - A balanced or compromise solution may be sought by judges to avoid exacerbating economic and fiscal impacts while addressing potential executive overreach [9] Group 4 - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs on certain imported semiconductors and related products, indicating that tariffs will remain a core tool in domestic and foreign policy [9] - A ruling that supports the government's tariff measures could strengthen its global tariff strategy, potentially undermining the multilateral trading system established post-World War II [10] - Consideration may be given to establishing broader tariff exemptions for essential goods to mitigate domestic inflation and public discontent [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing pressure to potentially raise interest rates amid strong economic indicators, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's inclination to lower rates, which could impact global forex and fixed income markets [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The RBA's upcoming meeting in February is set against a backdrop of concerning indicators for investors accustomed to loose monetary policy, including persistent price pressures, strong private sector demand, and a booming real estate market [1][5]. - Upcoming inflation data for the three months ending in December is crucial; if it shows trimmed mean inflation above the RBA's 2%-3% target, the RBA may have no choice but to act [1][5]. - Current household spending is robust, economic growth is steady, core and overall inflation are above targets, and unit labor costs have risen, although productivity growth remains weak [1][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - RBA Governor Michele Bullock's recommendations may focus on actions to mitigate inflation risks, with expectations that the RBA will raise rates in February and again in May, reflecting a historical pattern of consecutive rate changes [2][6]. - Some economists predict that if CPI momentum slows, the RBA may pause after a February hike but could raise rates again later in the year [2][6]. - There is a consensus that Australia is not on the verge of an aggressive tightening cycle, as the RBA has been cautious in its rate adjustments compared to other central banks [2][6]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The potential for the RBA to maintain or raise rates while the Federal Reserve lowers them could widen the interest rate differential favoring Australia, potentially leading to an appreciation of the Australian dollar [3][7]. - The Australian dollar is nearing its highest level since October 2024, trading at 0.6705 USD [3][7].

这意味着，2024年上半年全球资本市场将继续在"高利率、强美元"的货币环境中运行，依赖经济数据的起伏寻找方向。在此背景下，资产价格的 波动性可能再度攀升，重现2023年第四季度般的剧烈震荡。 对于投资者而言，最关键的风险在于重新定价。一方面，美国经济的韧性使得通胀（尤其是关税传导带来的通胀）成为比衰退更紧迫的威胁；另 一方面，非美经济体如欧元区和中国面临的增长压力，使得全球货币政策难以协调。 特别值得注意的是，大摩对日本央行的判断与市场主流预期截然相反—— 市场还在押注加息，而大摩认为日本央行全年都将按兵不动。这种预期 的巨大偏差，极可能在日元和日本国债市场上引发剧烈的重新定价风险。 摩根士丹利指出，全球经济正站在一个高度分化的十字路口，而市场对于流动性宽松的预期可能再次偏离现实。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利在1月15日发布的全球经济简报中，为那些押注全球央行将同步、快速转向宽松政策的投资者敲响了警钟。该机构强 调，此前市场普遍期待的美联储年初降息已基本落空——强劲的美国消费数据迫使大摩将首次降息预期大幅推迟至今年年中。 美国经济：强劲消费与关税通胀迫使美联储按兵不动 美国经济目前呈现出一种令人困惑但强韧的背离 ...

工业金属价格的持续上涨正成为美国通胀前景的潜在威胁。随着油价近期反弹、关税成本传导以及经济增长保持韧性，多重因素叠加可能推动 CPI在未来数月出现上行压力，最高法院即将就关税问题作出的裁决也为短期通胀走势增添了不确定性。 据追风交易台消息，德银分析师Markus Heider在15日公布的报告中表示，金属市场正经历一轮强劲涨势。LMEX工业金属指数自去年12月以来已 上涨近20%，自9月以来累计涨幅达到30%。这一始于去年秋季的上涨行情在最近几周明显提速。 通胀风险正在累积。本周公布的11月生产者价格指数（PPI）报告已显示核心消费品通胀出现加速迹象。与此同时，此前一直作为重要抵消因素的 能源价格近期止跌回升，过去一周油价出现反弹，削弱了成本端的缓冲空间。 对于美国市场而言，这一风险尤为突出。近几个月来关税政策已为成本端增添压力。如果油价维持在当前水平且经济增长保持强劲，金属价格上 涨将更明显地构成美国CPI的上行风险。 金属价格与通胀市场估值之间存在显著的正相关关系，这种关联建立在两个基础之上。首先，基础金属是生产成本的重要驱动因素，价格上涨会 直接传导至制造业成本，进而影响终端消费价格。其次，金属价格与通 ...

这是保尔森首次系统性披露其对美联储内部决策机制和宏观经济前景的看法。 在围绕美联储主席鲍威尔的政治压力和舆论争议持续发酵之际，费城联邦储备银行主席安娜·保尔森 （Anna Paulson）当地时间1月15日首次接受全国性媒体采访，公开为鲍威尔的领导能力和制度操守背 书，并就当前通胀形势、利率路径以及劳动力市场风险阐述了她的政策判断。 为鲍威尔背书 近期，鲍威尔披露自己正面临一项与美联储华盛顿总部翻修工程有关的刑事调查。但他明确表示，这项 调查的实质并不在于建筑问题，而是与货币政策立场有关，尤其涉及美国总统特朗普希望美联储尽快降 低利率的政治意图。 保尔森对此给予了明确支持。 "鲍威尔的声明非常有力。我认为声明本身已经说明了一切。"保尔森在采访中表示。 保尔森进一步指出，美联储的制度稳定性，来自长期以来形成的强有力领导传统。"几十年来，美联储 一直拥有非常强有力的领导，我认为这对美国民众是有益的"。 她的表态，与本周多位美联储同僚的看法形成呼应，这些官员也纷纷为鲍威尔的操守和领导力背书。 去年年底，在是否降息以及何时降息的问题上，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部一度出现明显分 歧，鲍威尔在推动降息过程中面临越 ...

为了提供更全面的预测，Omdia指出了一些可能抑制2026年经济增长的宏观经济风险因素。尽管 中国和欧元区的通胀基本得到控制，但美国的通胀问题依然令人担忧。预计今年的其他挑战包括劳 计算与数据存储领域将引领半导体营收增长，预计到2026年将同比增长41.4%，超过5000亿美 元。这主要得益于数据中心服务器和其他内存密集型应用的高需求，以及内存芯片价格的上涨。笔 记本电脑的增长则得益于人工智能技术的普及和企业的大规模更新换代。预计今年全球四大超大规 模数据中心运营商的资本支出总额将达到约5000亿美元，并且预计未来还将继续增长。资本支出 正重新分配至人工智能基础设施、模型开发和新兴应用领域，凸显了人工智能对各行业的变革性影 响。 2026年，消费电子和无线应用领域也将为半导体营收增长带来强劲前景。推动增长的因素包括存 储器价格上涨、新一代折叠屏智能手机的发布以及互联消费设备的复苏。苹果、三星和其他厂商在 人工智能摄影方面的升级以及旗舰智能手机的更新换代也将进一步促进增长。可穿戴设备、智能音 箱和虚拟现实（VR）头显预计也将实现显著的营收增长。 Omdia高级首席分析师Myson Robles-Bruce表示： ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 沪铜市场周报 淡季影响需求谨慎，沪铜或将有所承压 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.63%，振幅5.51%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价100770元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国CPI增速在12月保持稳定，核心CPI略低于预期。特朗普称赞通胀数据，称鲍威尔应该大幅降息。 美联储传声筒：12月CPI不太可能改变当前的观望态度。国内方面，工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、 有色、新材料、汽车、机械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的12家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积极参与行业规则 制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下探，矿紧对铜价的成本支撑力度仍在。 供给端，受制于原料供给紧张，25年底产量仅小幅增加，往后看26年初产量亦大体持稳，国内供给量维持相对充足状态。 需求端，淡季影响 ...

Group 1: USD Dynamics - The core variable for the USD remains the Federal Reserve, with recent discussions indicating heightened congressional interest in monetary policy [3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled that there is no urgent need for rate cuts, suggesting that the USD will have policy support in the short term [5] - The market is expected to experience more volatility from adjustments in expectations rather than a trend reversal [5] Group 2: EUR Challenges - The Eurozone is facing significant economic pressures, with Germany's economic growth projected at only 0.2% for 2025, highlighting a lack of momentum [6] - The European Central Bank's medium-term outlook shows inflation returning to target levels, but economic growth is expected to remain between 1.2% and 1.4%, which may not provide strong support for the Euro [6] - The Euro's performance is likely to depend more on relative stability rather than a clear strengthening [6] Group 3: JPY Outlook - The Japanese Yen is in focus due to potential interest rate stability and concerns over its weakness, with the possibility of coordinated intervention being discussed [7] - Internal divisions within the Bank of Japan suggest that interest rate hikes may occur sooner than the market currently anticipates, increasing sensitivity to news [7] - The volatility in the Yen impacts various sectors, including consumer spending and international trade [7] Group 4: Other Currencies and Regional Dynamics - Other regions are also experiencing significant developments, such as the UK delaying employment survey releases, reflecting challenges in data quality and policy judgment [8] - India aims to conclude trade negotiations with the EU by January 26, which could positively affect regional currencies and capital flows [8] - In Asia, Hong Kong's finance chief has stated there will be no reduction in stock stamp duty, while South Korea's finance minister emphasizes the need to halt excessive depreciation of the Won [8] - The overall forex market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations driving dynamics and differentiated fundamentals" [8]