智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，过去两个月，港股市场震荡纠结、缺乏方向。这一背景下，红利倒是成了"青黄不接"环境下的首选，银行板块 9月底至今反弹近10%。针对红利资产和三大结构（AI产业趋势、传统内需和外需拉动顺周期），中金认为，AI产业优势在于产业趋势仍在，且国内政策 支持；不足在于高估值、高预期，需要新催化；择线短期看硬件国产替代，长期看应用端需求与盈利兑现。 外需方面，外需拉动顺周期，美国信用周期重启扩张或带动全球制造业周期回暖，不足在于全年维度上或缺乏持续性；择时看制造业PMI、成屋销售，此 外国内一季度PPI阶段回暖或提供短期交易窗口期；择线结合产能供给寻找弹性。而传统内需优势在于估值和预期不高，不足在于缺乏盈利支撑；或有政 策催化下具备潜在波段交易机会，但当心"静态估值陷阱"。红利方面，红利的本质是"内需不振"的对冲，港股股息率吸引力仍存，但可选范围缩圈。 中金主要观点如下： 过去两个月，市场震荡纠结、缺乏方向。一方面，是因为科技成长板块的预期和仓位均较高，使投资者对利空敏感，再加上美股市场上AI泡沫担忧和美 联储降息预期降温"添乱"，都放大了波动，恒生科技从高点一度最多回调约16.6% ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has strong upside potential in 2026 due to limited supply growth and resilient demand, with attention on the scale of Indonesian production and photovoltaic production schedules in Q1. Short - term inventory trends in December depend on photovoltaic production and aluminum ingot imports [3]. - The alumina market remains under pressure, with prices likely to continue to be weak. Although it has reached a relatively low level, the supply - demand situation is still not favorable [4]. 3. Summary by Sections Aluminum - **Price and Outlook**: After a short - term adjustment, the market has a strong bullish expectation for aluminum. The AI - related energy and storage sectors are expected to drive aluminum demand. In 2026, the upside potential of aluminum prices is significant, but there may be a short - term dip in Q1 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: In December, inventory depletion depends on photovoltaic production and imported aluminum ingots. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 590,000 tons this week. Downstream demand was average, with some products showing a decline in cumulative output year - to - date [3]. Alumina - **Price and Market**: Alumina prices continued to decline and are close to the low point in April. The market is bearish, but from a trading perspective, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Spot trading is limited, and inventory has increased. The production of alumina is still rigid, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [4]. Trading - **Spread**: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum strengthened [10][11]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of both Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts decreased slightly. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level [14][20]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days increased in the Steel Union's weekly data as of November 28. In October, the inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite ports in the阿拉丁 data showed a downward trend. The inventory of bauxite in alumina enterprises continued to increase in October. Port shipments from Guinea decreased, while sea - floating inventory increased [25][28][31]. - **Alumina**: Total inventory continued to increase. In the Steel Union's data, it increased by 59,000 tons this week. In the阿拉丁 data, as of November 27, the national alumina inventory was 4.415 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons [44][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 590,000 tons as of November 27, showing obvious inventory depletion [52]. - **Processed Products**: Aluminum rod inventory showed a differentiated trend. In October, the finished - to - raw - material inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum plate - strips and foils showed opposite trends [57][60]. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable, with a slight decline in October. Imported bauxite is an important factor in the growth of total supply. There were differences in production changes among different provinces [65][66]. - **Alumina**: Capacity utilization remained stable, but the supply - demand situation remained loose. The weekly production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.858 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Operating capacity remained at a high level, and production was also at a high level in recent years. The aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally [73]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of aluminum plate - strips and foils increased slightly, while the production of recycled aluminum rods decreased. The overall operating rate of downstream leading enterprises increased [76][77]. Profit - **Alumina**: Smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's data was 135.4 yuan/ton. Profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, while Guangxi had better profit performance [84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Profits remained at a high level, but market expectations were disturbed by uncertainties such as the global economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [96]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, but downstream processing profits remained at a low level [97]. Consumption - **Import and Export**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased. In October, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly [106][108]. - **Apparent Demand**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while automobile production increased month - on - month [113].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a cautious sentiment with mixed performance among the three major indices, where the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.07% and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.36% [2] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.3 billion HKD today, indicating continued interest from mainland investors [2] Group 2: New Consumption Concept Stocks - New consumption concept stocks surged against the market trend, with notable gains from companies like Pop Mart, which rose over 6%, and others such as Lao Pu Gold and Miniso, which increased by 4.45% and 2.73% respectively [7] - A recent policy initiative from six Chinese ministries aims to enhance the supply-demand match in consumer goods, targeting the cultivation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [7][8] Group 3: Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed a mixed performance, with Xiaomi, JD.com, and Meituan rising by 2.49%, 1.22%, and 0.19% respectively, while Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent saw declines of 2.71%, 1.57%, and 1.29% [5][6] - Analysts from Dongwu Securities noted that the AI industry trend is irreversible, and leading tech companies in Hong Kong are expected to benefit significantly from this acceleration [5] Group 4: Innovative Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with stocks like Lai Kai Pharmaceutical and Sanleaf Bio rising by 16.07% and 10.08% respectively [11][12] - A report from Founder Securities highlighted that Chinese pharmaceutical companies are gaining global competitiveness in advanced technology fields, and the market is expected to recognize the value of early-stage innovative pipelines [11] Group 5: Commodities Sector - The commodities sector remained active, driven by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with companies like China Silver Group and Jihai Resources increasing by 3.08% and 3.03% respectively [13][14] Group 6: IPO Activity - The online market operator Quantitative派 saw its stock price surge by 88.78% on its first day of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 131 million HKD through its IPO [16]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.07% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.36% [4][5] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 1.3 billion HKD [4] New Consumption Concept Stocks - New consumption concept stocks surged despite the overall market decline, driven by favorable government policies [10] - The State Council has outlined plans to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, aiming to cultivate three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [11] - Companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso saw significant stock price increases of over 6%, 4.45%, and 2.73% respectively [12] Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Xiaomi, JD.com, and Meituan rising by 2.49%, 1.22%, and 0.19%, while Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent fell by 2.71%, 1.57%, and 1.29% respectively [8][9] - Analysts from Dongwu Securities noted that the AI industry trend is irreversible, and leading tech companies in Hong Kong are expected to benefit significantly [8] Innovative Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with stocks like Lai Kai Pharmaceutical and Sanleaf Bio rising by 16.07% and 10.08% respectively [14][15] - The industry is entering a new development phase, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies gaining global competitiveness in advanced technology fields [14] Non-ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector remained active, with stocks like China Silver Group and Jihai Resources increasing by 3.08% and 3.03% respectively, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [16][17] IPO Performance - The online market operator Quantitative派 saw its stock price surge by 88.78% on its first day of trading, raising approximately 131 million HKD through its IPO [20]

Group 1 - The pace of capital inflow into equity ETFs has significantly accelerated, with a total net subscription amount reaching 196.48 billion yuan as of November 21 [1] - On November 21, the single-day net subscription amount for equity ETFs exceeded 40 billion yuan, marking the highest net inflow in over seven months [1] - The capital flow is directed towards three main categories: broker-themed ETFs and dividend-themed ETFs, technology growth-themed ETFs, and Hong Kong stock-themed ETFs [1] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management states that despite recent market adjustments, liquidity shocks are nearing full pricing, and the overall market trend has not fundamentally changed [2] - The Chinese AI industry is still in its early development stage, avoiding the excessive capital expenditure issues seen in the U.S., with a solid foundation for technological innovation and self-sufficiency [2]

Group 1 - The current market trend is shifting back to the "technology growth" theme, with a mid-term focus on the technology sector [1] - Technology-weighted stocks have significantly contributed to the current bull market, with notable market capitalization growth in sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment [1] - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector remains relatively under-traded, indicating that the valuation differentiation between growth and value is not extreme [1] Group 2 - The AI industry trend is expected to drive attention towards underperforming technology areas such as AI applications, consumer electronics, and humanoid robots by 2026 [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI continues to remain above the overall manufacturing level, indicating a "polarization" in performance between technology companies and traditional industries [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%, reflecting the performance of 100 representative innovative companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 港股通50ETF（159712）跟踪的是港股通50指数（930931），该指数从港股通机制下选取交易活跃、流 动性良好的50只港股上市证券作为指数样本，覆盖金融、信息技术、消费等多个重要行业，综合反映港 股通范围内具有市场代表性和核心竞争力的上市公司证券的整体表现。 招商证券指出，港股通50行业近期受美元指数走强影响出现调整，恒生科技指数领跌，对外部流动性变 化较为敏感。当前港股估值已进入配置价值区间，恒生科技PE-TTM处于历史14.8%分位。在中国经济 结构转型背景下，科技板块汇集了A股稀缺的优质科技公司，AI产业趋势持续强化，相关企业竞争力突 出。顺周期、服务业消费及自主可控成为三大主线，其中科技板块在AI基础设施、大模型竞争升级推 动下具备长期发展潜力。存储器、集成电路等TMT领域维持高景气， ...

Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a slow downward trend, with overall inflation remaining stable and limited transmission effects from tariffs on inflation [1] - Recent data from Harvard's Pricing Lab indicates that the price increase of Chinese goods imported to the US has been limited, even after tariff hikes [1] - The US has recently reduced tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%, further diminishing the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - There is a potential concern regarding rising electricity prices due to significant investments in the AI industry, which may affect the US CPI [1] Labor Market Insights - The US is currently in a government shutdown, leading to a lack of official economic data, with reliance on private statistics like the ADP report [2] - The latest ADP data shows a rebound in job creation to over 40,000 in October, but this is still below the previous average of over 100,000, indicating a weak labor market [2] - The stable inflation and weakening labor market create conditions for potential monetary policy easing, with expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] China-US Trade Relations - Despite the recent reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods, China still faces significant tariff pressures, with its goods having the highest tariff rates among countries exporting to the US as of July [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing a diverging trend compared to the US, with stable high growth in exports, social financing, and industrial value added, while retail sales and fixed asset investment face uncertainties [5] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to decline further, potentially falling between 4.4% and 4.6% [5] - The impact of previous economic stimulus measures is leading to a decline in consumer purchasing power, with some sectors experiencing negative sales growth [5] Inflation and Price Trends - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "bottoming out and recovery" in inflation, influenced by base effects, with gold's rising weight in the CPI contributing to this trend [6] - Gold's weight in the CPI has increased to 4%, indicating its significant impact on overall inflation metrics [6] - Core CPI is projected to remain stable between 0.5% and 1.6% [6] Social Financing Trends - Social financing growth is expected to gradually decline towards the end of the year due to a lack of large-scale debt issuance compared to the previous year [7] - The recent discussions from the Fourth Plenary Session indicate a cautious approach to economic policy, with no expectation of large-scale stimulus measures [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Developments - There has been a noticeable decrease in fiscal bond issuance in October, with expectations for a potential rebound in November or December [8] - The government has implemented incremental policies to address the economic downturn, including the issuance of local government bonds [8] - Policy-oriented financial tools have been fully utilized to counter economic pressures, with a focus on supporting key sectors [9] Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience a narrow fluctuation pattern, with potential for policy-driven movements in early next year [10] - The ten-year government bond is highlighted as a stable investment option, suitable for both long-term allocation and short-term trading strategies [10]

港股科技ETF（513020）跟踪的是港股通科技指数（931573），该指数从港股通范围内选取具有高流动 性、大市值的科技主题上市公司证券作为指数样本，聚焦互联网、创新药、新能源汽车等核心科技领 域，以反映港股市场优质科技企业的整体表现。 中泰证券指出，港股科技龙头在AI投入加大的背景下，当前估值合理且分红回购增强。在本轮大模型 和C端应用竞争中，真正有能力将AI能力落到产品和商业化上的仍主要集中在头部平台。科技板块受美 股AI龙头影响较强。展望后市，本轮科技行情远未结束，短期回调后有望延续，因美股AI产业基本面 逆转可能性较低，仍会给予港股对标公司较大估值增长空间。当前AI板块发展阶段对应美股2023-2024 年资金从硬件向应用扩散时期，硬件基础设施行情已充分演绎，应用层面刚刚起步，意味着行情远未进 入尾声。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险， ...

Core Insights - The "Burning Plasma" international scientific program initiated by the Chinese Academy of Sciences aims to enhance global collaboration in fusion research, with a focus on sustainable energy generation through nuclear fusion [1][2] - The BEST research plan, set to be completed by the end of 2027, will conduct experiments on deuterium-tritium burning plasma, targeting a fusion power output between 20 megawatts and 200 megawatts [2] Industry Developments - The global fusion energy landscape is rapidly evolving, with nearly 40 countries advancing fusion plans and over 160 fusion devices in operation, construction, or planning stages [1] - The international cooperation in fusion research is entering a critical phase, with significant breakthroughs achieved but ongoing challenges requiring collective efforts from scientists worldwide [1][3] Investment and Procurement Trends - The fusion energy sector is witnessing unprecedented procurement and financing activity, with significant projects announced, including a procurement project exceeding 2 billion yuan for key components related to the BEST project [3][4] - Recent financing rounds for companies in the fusion energy supply chain indicate a strong market interest, with investments from institutional investors and state-owned enterprises, focusing on high-value core hardware and materials [4]