瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体大幅上涨，科创50及创业板指涨超5%。四期指亦集体上行， 中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周一，国内三季度经济数据公布，高技术制造业继续支撑经济， 但投资与消费均回落；周二至周四，市场受到海外关税消息反复变化扰动，呈震荡态势；周 五，随着四中全会闭幕，公报内容提振市场情绪，A股大幅走高。本周，市场成交活跃度较 上周进一步回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2512 | 3.34 | 1.49 | 4634.8 | | | IH2512 | 2.89 | 1.04 | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 国债期货周报 风险偏好回升，债市偏弱震荡 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 资金面：本周央行公开市场逆回购8672亿元，逆回购到期7891亿元，累计实现净投放1981亿元。 本周央行净投放，DR007加权利率维持1.41%附近震荡。 总结：本周国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.1-1.5bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率分别上行2.3、1.2bp左右至1.84%、2.21%。 本周国债期货集体走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别下跌0.04%、0.16%、0.27%、0.74%。 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、二十届四中全会公报发布。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标：高质量发展取得显著成效，科技自 立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大 进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固；2、为贯彻落实党中央国务院决策部署 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's communique is favorable for the technology sector, and the science - innovation 50 index has regained strength. The stock market is crucial for boosting residents' consumption confidence, and a stable stock market can enhance the internal impetus of the domestic economic cycle. In the context of weakening export expectations and investment slowdown, consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [5][9][20] - The "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" propose forward - looking layout of future industries, with quantum technology, bio - manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interface, embodied intelligence, 6G and other fields becoming new economic growth points. Chinese capital may be migrating structurally towards stocks, attracting overseas investors [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes adhering to the economic construction as the center, promoting high - quality development, achieving self - reliance and strength in high - level science and technology, expanding domestic demand, steadily expanding institutional opening - up, improving people's livelihood, and promoting green transformation [4][5][6] - The "Learning Times" article highlights the importance of stabilizing the stock market in increasing residents' property income and boosting consumption confidence [9] Stock Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in 10 years. The Shanghai 50 Index representing the value style has reached a new high in the first half of the week. After being encouraged by the Fourth Plenary Session's communique, the technology sector led the rise on Friday, and the chip sector also regained strength [11][14][17] - The financing balance remains stable, with 2.93 million new A - share accounts opened in September. In August, non - bank financial institutions had an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, indicating a transfer of residents' savings to the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in September reached 7.2%, which is conducive to the upward movement of the stock market [22][25][28] Economic Data - In September, the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the CPI for consumer goods increased by 0.3% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing fixed - asset investment in September was - 1.9%, infrastructure investment decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and real estate development investment continued to decline with a year - on - year growth rate of - 21.2% [31][34][40] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0%. The output of industrial robots in September was 76,200 units, a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 41.1% [43][46] International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month. The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The sales of US wholesalers in August reached a record high of 711.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [49][52][55] - The US capital goods imports in August were 91.9 billion US dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating an acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [58] Investment Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, wait for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai 50 Index. For stock index option trading, as the market is still in a large - range volatile consolidation state, it is advisable to wait and see [20][21] - Before and after the China - US agreement at the end of the month, consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index, with the CSI 300 Index being a good choice for both offense and defense [64][66]

市场全天震荡反弹，沪指刷新年内新高，创业板指领涨。 盘面上，算力硬件方向持续爆发，CPO概念股领涨，"光模块"三巨头齐发力，中际旭创大涨超12%创历 史新高，汇绿生态5天3板。存储芯片概念股全天走强，香农芯创、普冉股份20cm涨停双双创新高。商 业航天板块掀起涨停潮，航天科技等十余股涨停。下跌方面，煤炭股集体调整，安泰集团跌停。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.71%，深成指涨2.02%，创业板指涨3.57%。个股涨多跌少，逾3000股收红。沪深两 市成交额1.97万亿，较上一个交易日放量3303亿，再度逼近2万亿大关。 大涨！科技股集体反弹 今日，A股市场震荡拉升，三大指数全线上涨，沪指再创十年新高。 值得注意的是，科技股今日集体反弹，成为最大亮点之一。日前发布的十五五的公报中提到，"科技自 立自强水平大幅提高"仍是十五五时期主要目标之一。机构认为，半导体设备与材料、工业软件与高端 制造、医疗设备与战略新兴领域等方向有望因此受益。 从热点方向看，存储芯片今日再迎爆发。 海外方面，两大外资机构发布重磅预告。 据智通财经消息，摩根大通和美国银行策略师最新预计，美联储将于下周的议息会议上就宣布停止缩减 其约6.6万亿美元的资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy announcement emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and aims to accelerate high-level technological independence, positioning it as a primary goal for social development in the next decade [1] Semiconductor Industry Overview - The semiconductor sector in A-shares has seen a cumulative increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year, driven by the global demand for AI technology [2] - Global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $630.5 billion in 2024, marking a 19.7% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in logic chips (37%) and storage chips (20%) [2] - The demand for semiconductors remains robust, with major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon expected to spend over $360 billion on AI infrastructure by 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - The storage chip market is currently experiencing a price surge, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix planning to increase prices by up to 30% in Q4 2023 due to rising AI-driven demand [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public input on a guideline aimed at establishing a comprehensive computing power standard system by 2027, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of computing resources and promote domestic chip production [3] Financial Performance - The semiconductor sector's overall revenue increased by 15.54% year-on-year, with net profit growth reaching 32.41% [5] - Notable performances include AI chip leader Cambricon, which reported a staggering revenue increase of 4347.82% year-on-year, and Haiguang Information, with a revenue growth of 45.21% [5][6] Growth Drivers - The growth in the semiconductor industry is driven by a rebound in demand, particularly in AI computing power, which is expected to grow by over 90% in China by 2025 [8] - The domestic substitution rate in mature processes has reached approximately 70%, with certain sectors exceeding 80%, indicating a significant shift towards local production [9] Investment Landscape - The semiconductor equipment ETF E Fund (159558) has seen a net inflow of 1.084 billion yuan in the past 20 days, reflecting strong investor interest [5] - The overall valuation of the semiconductor sector is currently above the market average, with a PE ratio of around 50, but is expected to drop to approximately 35 as profits grow [11][12] Conclusion - The domestic semiconductor industry is in a positive cycle characterized by demand recovery, technological breakthroughs, policy support, and strong financial performance [14] - Key investment themes include AI innovation and domestic substitution, focusing on companies with technological advantages and strong performance [16]

Market Performance - The three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a gain of 1.82%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.74%, both recovering the 6000 and 26000 points thresholds respectively [1] - The National Enterprises Index rose by 0.68%, indicating a positive trend across the indices for the week [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks generally saw an increase, with Alibaba and Kuaishou rising over 2%, and Baidu and NetEase increasing over 1%, while Xiaomi experienced a decline of nearly 2% [1] - Semiconductor stocks performed notably well, with Huahong Semiconductor surging nearly 14%, and leading company SMIC rising by 8% [1] - The military industry stocks became active following the Fourth Plenary Session's emphasis on modernizing national defense, with notable gains in Chinese brokerage stocks such as CICC rising by 4.4% and CITIC Securities by 3.7% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including gold, copper, and aluminum, also saw collective gains [1] Underperforming Sectors - Water utility stocks, nuclear power stocks, new consumption concept stocks, domestic property stocks, gas stocks, and coal stocks mostly performed poorly, with China Water Affairs Group dropping over 11% and Nayuki Tea falling over 3% [1] - Real estate companies such as Longfor Group and Agile Group both declined by over 2% [1]

对资本市场有哪些影响？ 二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称 《建议》），明确了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标。 东吴证券首席经济学家、研究所联席所长芦哲称，"十五五"发展目标相比"十四五"更加简洁精炼，包 括：经济发展、改革开放、文化建设、生态文明、社会民生、国家治理。其中，比"十四五"新增的表述 是"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"。 近年来，中国已成为全球经济增长的主要引擎，各方面都很关注中国经济的发展前景。《建议》提出， 提升宏观经济治理效能，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 在10月24日召开的中共中央新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委党组书记、主任郑栅洁表示，将从拓展政策 空间、创新治理工具、增强宏观政策取向一致性三个方面持续发力，强化综合统筹和综合平衡。"十四 五"时期，我国GDP在2020年突破100万亿元大关，接连跨越几个台阶，今年预计达到140万亿元左右。 对于此次二十届四中全会对A股市场的影响，中国银河证券首席策略分析师杨超认为，短期来看，全会 的召开为A股市场提供新一轮的政策预期和投资线索，有望有效提振市场信心，相关板块或将获得投 ...

Core Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of "new quality productivity" in the economic planning framework, highlighting the urgency of achieving high-level technological self-reliance and independence [1][2][3] - The session positioned the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for solidifying the foundation for socialist modernization, indicating a strong commitment to long-term development goals [2][3] - The focus on "high-quality development" and "technological self-reliance" as primary objectives reflects an increased emphasis on the quality and technological content of economic development [2][3] Economic Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to maintain economic construction as the central focus, with significant goals for high-quality development and improved levels of technological self-reliance [3][4] - The meeting reiterated the necessity of achieving annual economic and social development targets, with macroeconomic policies expected to continue to support growth [5][6] - The actual GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters sets a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5%, despite signs of slowing investment and consumption [6] Market Implications - The policy guidance from the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reinforce a slow bull trend in the A-share market, with long-term and stable growth anticipated [7][8] - The capital market is seen as crucial for supporting the real economy, with the plan's strategic focus likely to create new investment demands and asset allocation opportunities [7][8] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors aligned with "new quality productivity," particularly in emerging technology industries such as AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization stage [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, closing up 0.71% at 3950.31 points [1][2] - The total market turnover was 1.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 330.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 3000 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The storage chip and semiconductor sectors experienced significant gains, with stocks like Baiwei Storage and TuoJing Technology hitting the daily limit [4] - The commercial aerospace sector also saw strong performance, with companies like Aerospace Intelligence and China Satellite reaching their daily limits [6] - Conversely, the coal sector faced a pullback, with major companies like Antai Group and Yunmei Energy dropping over 9% [8] Notable Stocks - Baiwei Storage (688525) rose by 10.70% to 119.10 yuan, with a total market value of 55.585 billion yuan, up 92.19% year-to-date [5] - TuoJing Technology (688072) increased by 10.55% to 286.00 yuan, with a market value of 80.413 billion yuan, up 86.44% year-to-date [5] - Aerospace Universe (688523) surged by 11.88% to 24.95 yuan, with a market value of 10.152 billion yuan, up 24.75% year-to-date [7] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" driven by the AI boom, with Morgan Stanley predicting significant growth in the storage chip sector [4] - Apple's upcoming AI glasses and strong demand for the iPhone 17 are contributing to a bullish outlook for the consumer electronics sector [6] - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a rapid development phase, supported by recent policy announcements [6] Economic Outlook - Long-term trends suggest a potential stabilization of the A-share market, with improving profit expectations and supportive policies likely to enhance valuations [9] - Short-term perspectives indicate a continuation of a strong market trend, driven by economic growth targets and potential liquidity easing measures [10]

Core Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, which sets a clear direction for China's high-quality development over the next five years [1][2] - The plan emphasizes the continuity of China's modernization policies and aims to provide a reference for international cooperation [1][2] Group 1: Economic and Social Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a foundation for China's economic and social development, symbolizing a new stage of governance, social harmony, and economic vitality [1][2] - The plan outlines significant goals for technological self-reliance and social development, with a focus on improving the level of technological independence [2] - High-quality development is prioritized, with the term mentioned ten times in the official communiqué, indicating a strong policy signal for future growth [2] Group 2: International Perspective - The plan is viewed as crucial for China's global standing and national pride, with experts noting its importance in the context of a turbulent international environment [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide China's economic strategy from 2026 to 2030, reflecting the country's aspirations as a major global power [1][2] - The emphasis on high-quality development and technological innovation is likely to influence international economic relations and cooperation [2]