上周，金价冲高回落，周初受美对伊关系升级、降息预期升温等多重因素催化，金价震荡走高，周五盘 中一度触及4650美元高位，随着美对伊关系缓和及美暂缓白银等关键矿产征收关税等多重风险事件解 除，金价大幅跳水，盘中一度跌至4539美元关口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨2.23%报4601.1美 元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度涨2.73%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨6.42%。 消息面上，特朗普公开表示，伊朗已承诺"杀戮停止、无处决计划"，美方暂时搁置对伊朗进行军事打 击。此前数日，特朗普多次放狠话"锁定并装弹"，威胁干预伊朗国内抗议镇压，市场一度计入极端地缘 风险溢价，推动金银飙升。特朗普最新表态后，避险情绪急剧降温——伊朗国内动荡虽未彻底平息，但 地域冲突概率大幅降低。 相关分析指出，上周五受地缘政策冲突缓和，黄金价格高位震荡，中长期因素来看，二季度全球美元储 备比例继续下降，美国财政赤字继续增长，去美元化仍在路上，利好黄金的货币属性；金融属性方面， 预计2026年实际利率继续下降，黄金中期利好因素也在。而对于商品属性方面，由于黄金税收新政，对 国内实物金需求影响较大，并 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the demand for non-ferrous metals is under short-term pressure, recommending to buy copper, aluminum, and tin on dips [3][4][5] - Precious metals are viewed positively, with silver prices rising and expectations of continued inflows into ETFs due to macroeconomic conditions [3] - The report highlights the potential for supply-demand tightness in copper due to production adjustments and government spending expectations [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the non-ferrous metals sector is at 9404.84, with a weekly high of 9504.06 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 2.76%, aluminum by 1.96%, zinc by 0.19%, lead by 0.75%, and tin by 1.02% during the week [20] - COMEX gold fell by 0.17%, while silver increased by 5.63% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories saw an increase of 72,618 tons for copper and 35,512 tons for aluminum, while tin inventories rose by 3,159 tons [30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure, so it's advisable to stay cautious [6]. - The central electricity consumption in China reached 10.4 trillion kWh in 2025, and the stock index is expected to have its volatility center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex, and there is a significant speculative sentiment in precious metals. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to weakly fluctuate, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [16]. - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - term corrections may occur. Investors can go long on dips [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded but faced resistance. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [21]. - After 2025 Q4, the ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure. One can consider long positions in the low - level range [24]. - The crude oil is expected to continue its rebound, and one can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is bearish, but the stable cost of crude oil provides support. One can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [27]. - The new demand in high - end manufacturing supports the modified PP industry. The market is waiting for PDH maintenance, and one can focus on long opportunities in polyolefin [29]. - The synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [33]. - The natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [35]. - The PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly due to policy expectations and potential supply - demand improvement [36]. - The urea price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. One can participate in the range and beware of external market risks [40]. - The PTA is expected to oscillate. Operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, due to supply increase and inventory pressure, it's advisable to observe cautiously [44]. - The short - fiber may fluctuate with raw material prices. Control risks and pay attention to cost and downstream stocking [46]. - The bottle - chip may follow the cost to fluctuate. Participate cautiously and pay attention to maintenance implementation [47]. - The soda ash should be traded within the range in the short term, paying attention to policy - driven market changes [49]. - The glass is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [50]. - The outlook for caustic soda is not optimistic under the current supply - demand situation [52]. - The pulp market is under pressure from inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak [53]. - The lithium carbonate price may have increased short - term volatility, but there is strong support below [55]. - The copper price is at a high level and may adjust [57]. - The aluminum price is at a high level and may adjust [60]. - Be cautious when chasing the rise of zinc [62]. - The lead price will maintain range - bound fluctuations [65]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but control risks [66]. - The nickel is in an oversupply situation, and follow - up policies in Indonesia need attention [68]. - For soybean meal, one can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, long positions can consider exiting on rallies [70]. - One can consider long opportunities in palm oil after corrections [73]. - One can consider reducing positions in the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and oil [75]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. Buy on dips after corrections [77]. - The upward space for sugar is limited in the medium - and long - term, and the upward pressure is increasing [81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [86]. - For live pigs, it's advisable to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [87]. - For eggs, a positive spread strategy can be considered [88]. - The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of corn supply pressure [90]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Pulp - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 5362 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The import pulp market sentiment turned weak, prices showed a divergent trend, and the inventory was at a relatively high level, continuing the cumulative trend. The spot trading was light [53]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day's main contract fell 8.99% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment cooled down. The supply and demand were both strong, and the inventory was gradually decreasing. The price had strong support below, but short - term volatility might increase [54][55]. Copper - The previous trading day's Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The supply was extremely tight, but high prices inhibited demand, and the inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [56][57]. Aluminum - The previous trading day's Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The alumina supply was in significant excess, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [58][59]. Zinc - The previous trading day's Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,405 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The raw material supply was tight, and the consumption was seasonally weak. Be cautious when chasing the rise [61][62]. Lead - The previous trading day's Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The supply was restricted, and the demand was differentiated. The price maintained range - bound fluctuations [63][64]. Tin - The previous trading day's Shanghai tin main contract fell 8.42% to 379,400 yuan/ton. The supply was tight, and the demand had certain resilience. The price was expected to fluctuate strongly [66]. Nickel - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.1% to 139,890 yuan/ton. The cost was expected to rise, but the consumption was not optimistic, and it was in an oversupply situation [67][68]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.76% to 2727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.63% to 8016 yuan/ton. The soybean supply was relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal was growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improved slightly [69][70]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose for two consecutive weeks. The export increased, and the domestic inventory was at a medium level in the past 7 years. One can consider long opportunities after corrections [71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are decreasing. One can consider reducing spread positions [74][75]. Cotton - The previous trading day's domestic cotton futures fluctuated down. The USDA report was favorable, and the domestic supply was expected to be tight in the future, with demand showing resilience. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [76][77]. Sugar - The previous trading day's Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. India had a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faced double - supply pressure. The upward space was limited in the medium - and long - term [79][81]. Apple - The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fell more than 2%. The inventory was at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality declined. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [83][85]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.42% to 11,980 yuan/ton. The supply in the first quarter might face great pressure, and it's advisable to wait and see [87]. Eggs - The previous trading day's main contract rose 0.39% to 3072 yuan/500kg. The supply in January was expected to be at a high level, and a positive spread strategy could be considered [88]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.13% to 2281 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.04% to 2555 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needed to be further released, and the starch might follow the corn market [89][90]. Logs - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The supply was abundant, and the market was stable. The price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91].

2026年1月19日(周一)亚洲早盘，美元指数呈现高位震荡格局，多空因素交织下暂无明确单边方向。截 至发稿，美元指数报99.117，较前一交易日微跌0.26%，日内波动区间为99.057-99.494，开盘99.450后震 荡回落，虽脱离日内高点但仍处于近期相对高位区间。此前该指数已逼近六周高点99.41，展现出强支 撑下的韧性特征。 美元指数近期的强势表现，核心依托于美联储政策预期的固化与美国经济的相对韧性。CME"美联储观 察"工具显示，市场预计1月议息会议维持利率不变的概率高达95%，3月维持利率不变概率亦达78.4%， 降息预期已推迟至年中。美联储副主席杰斐逊明确表态，当前货币政策立场"处于良好位置"，预计今年 经济增速约2%，通胀将持续向2%目标回落，进一步巩固了短期利率稳定的市场判断。 长期来看，"去美元化"趋势与美联储政策转向预期未改。2025年金价飙升70%反映出全球对美元信用的 对冲需求，市场普遍预期美联储2026年上半年将累计降息50个基点，利差优势收窄将削弱美元资产吸引 力。美银美林等机构预测，美元走弱将引发全球汇市"再平衡"，2026年美元指数可能再跌3%，长期弱 势格局逐步清晰。同时 ...

超级铜周期的宏观与产业全维度解析 20260118 摘要 AI 科技革命和发达国家再电气化是本轮铜周期核心驱动力，打破了传统 经济增长与铜价、通胀预期与铜价之间的关联性，预示着铜需求的结构 性转变。 人工智能全产业链对铜需求旺盛，数据中心耗电量巨大，新兴产业如智 能家居、新能源汽车、人形机器人等均需大量精炼金属，构成对铜价的 强劲支撑。 全球面临人口老龄化、债务扩张及逆全球化挑战，各国为维持经济稳定 采取非常规手段，战略资源如精炼金属的供应链安全至关重要，铜作为 战略金属，价格有上涨空间。 2025 年全球主要铜矿因事故、缺电等问题导致增产不及预期，预计 2026 年全球重点铜矿企业产量仍将维持低增速，供应紧张局面难以缓 解。 铜矿企业资本开支水平较低，且资本开支一般领先供应增速 5-8 年，预 计 2026 年至 2030 年的增速仍将维持较低水平，好资源越来越少，新 发现的大型矿床寥寥无几，加之国际环境下资源民族主义抬头、政策不 确定性升高，使得开发周期延长。 Q&A 近年来铜价的上涨引起了广泛关注，能否从宏观角度分析一下超级铜周期的背 景和原因？ 从二战以来，我们经历了三轮超级铜周期。第一轮是二战后的重 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish outlook on gold prices, with expectations for significant increases in the coming years due to various economic factors and geopolitical risks [1][2]. - As of January 19, 2026, spot gold prices reached a historical high of $4,690 per ounce, reflecting a more than 2% increase during the day [1]. - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices was influenced by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and resilient economic data, but ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could rise to $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, with potential to reach $6,000 per ounce [2]. - The trend of central banks and investors increasing their gold reserves is noted as a long-term positive factor for gold prices [2]. - The gold ETF (159834) is highlighted for its high transparency and liquidity, allowing for T+0 intraday trading, which aligns with the growing interest in gold investments [2].

电解铝 ：商品情绪转弱 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，去年四季度以来资金持续流入推动铝价随板块 上涨，同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。但近日市场风险偏好有所变化，前期强势上涨品种的市场氛围降温带动沪铝资金流出。商品市场 情绪转弱，引发多品种回调。 ◼ 产业供应：供给端刚性预期明显，安哥拉新项目如期投产，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初；欧洲部分产能寻求复产但仍 处于前期规划阶段、所处国家寻求欧盟补贴以应对高昂的电力成本。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注 铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所 ...

风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周金价受美联储官员鹰派言论及经济数据韧性影响短期回调，但地缘与政治风险仍提供强力支撑。 鲍威尔及卡什卡利等官员暗示降息不具紧迫性，叠加初请失业金人数下降，压制了黄金的金融属性，实 际流动性环境依然宽松。此外，地缘风险显著升级，特朗普针对伊朗的关税威胁、格陵兰岛及委内瑞拉 局势，使得避险情绪持续升温，短线波动不改中线看多逻辑。长期来看，去美元化与债务担忧夯实黄金 长期配置基础。 二季度全球美元储备比例持续下降，央行购金趋势延续，叠加美国财政赤字不断增 长，黄金货币属性凸显。鉴于下一任美联储主席预期偏鸽，货币宽松预期无法证伪；建议密切关注非农 数据及美联储政策预期变化，把握配置机会。 1月19日，沪深两市低开震荡，黄金现货再度上涨，截至9点40分，金ETF(159834.SZ)涨1.17%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in global capital seeking value anchors that do not rely on sovereign credit, with Bitcoin being redefined as a macro asset alongside the decline of U.S. Treasury holdings by China [3][4][5]. - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings for nine consecutive months, signaling not just a geopolitical maneuver but the end of an era, indicating a structural shift in trust towards global reserve assets [3][4]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury holdings marks a turning point from "unipolar trust" to "decentralized holding," with the dollar's share in global reserves dropping to approximately 57%, the lowest in thirty years [4][5]. Group 2 - Bitcoin is being positioned as a digital counterpart to gold, characterized by its non-sovereign and non-credit nature, making it an attractive safe haven as trust in U.S. Treasury credit erodes [4][5]. - In 2026, Bitcoin is expected to exhibit three macro characteristics: a complete shift in pricing logic, deep institutionalization, and a focus on its role as a digital macro asset rather than merely a speculative instrument [5]. - The market is preparing for a systemic risk preference rebound in 2026, with Bitcoin serving as a hedge against systemic monetary risks and absorbing new global liquidity, thus amplifying its impact during risk recovery phases [5]. Group 3 - The article notes that Bitcoin's price volatility is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts, rather than solely on-chain data [5][8]. - The inflow of over $21 billion into spot ETFs and corporate reserves exceeding 1.1 million BTC indicates a shift in capital entry methods, moving away from retail purchases to more structured financial mechanisms [7]. - Despite the macro narrative, the article emphasizes the need for caution, as the transition in trust is complex and not guaranteed to follow a linear growth pattern [5][8].

相关分析指出，上周五受地缘政策冲突缓和，黄金价格高位震荡，中长期因素来看，二季度全球美元储 备比例继续下降，美国财政赤字继续增长，去美元化仍在路上，利好黄金的货币属性；金融属性方面， 预计2026年实际利率继续下降，黄金中期利好因素也在。而对于商品属性方面，由于黄金税收新政，对 国内实物金需求影响较大，并且黄金高位，2026年黄金首饰需求可能继续下降，需要关注央行购金和投 资需求能否弥补首饰需求下降；综上所述，黄金的中长期利好因素仍在，因此预计2026年上半年黄金仍 保持乐观。 每日经济新闻 上周，金价冲高回落，周初受美对伊关系升级、降息预期升温等多重因素催化，金价震荡走高，周五盘 中一度触及4650美元高位，随着美对伊关系缓和及美暂缓白银等关键矿产征收关税等多重风险事件解 除，金价大幅跳水，盘中一度跌至4539美元关口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨2.23%报4601.1美 元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度涨2.73%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨6.42%。 消息面上，特朗普公开表示，伊朗已承诺"杀戮停止、无处决计划"，美方暂时搁置对伊朗进行军事打 击。此前数日，特朗 ...