新华财经北京1月22日电近期受美欧"夺岛"争端提振，贵金属再度大幅走高，其中金价一举突破4800美 元并刷新历史新高至接近4900美元的位置。尽管隔夜特朗普称已就格陵兰岛制定协议框架、不会对欧洲 加征关税，引发贵金属价格回调，但并没有改变黄金的整体强势。 基本面方面，此前美国总统特朗普威胁对欧洲多国加征关税的消息，令市场担忧美欧两大经济体可能爆 发自2018年以来最严重的贸易战，促使投资者加速逃离风险资产，转而涌入黄金这一传统避险港湾。 （文章来源：新华财经） 最新数据显示，美元在全球支付系统的占比已跌至46.77%，而美元在全球外汇储备中的占比更是创下 30年新低，仅为56.32%。这种"去美元化"趋势为黄金作为非主权信用资产的价值重估提供了长期动力。 从技术上看，金价日线均线系统保持多头排列，这表明中长期上涨的主要趋势并未被破坏，昨日金价冲 高至4888美元／盎司后快速回落，当前的调整可视为对近期过快涨幅的一种技术性修复，目的是释放超 买压力。 后期来看，如果金价在4750-4760美元区域获得强劲支撑并出现企稳迹象，则可能迎来技术性反弹，第 一目标位看向4800-4820美元；如果4770-4780美元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing demand for gold driven by private investors and central banks, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end gold price target from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce [1] - As of January 2026, the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks shows mixed performance, with silver and non-ferrous metals leading gains, while gold stock ETF is priced at 2.05 yuan [1] - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion and total holdings climbing to a historical high of 4,025 tons [2] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities noted that gold's financial attributes are influenced by factors such as real interest rates, the US dollar index, and regional situations, indicating a strong resurgence of gold's financial properties [2] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks accounted for 63.58% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-22 去美元化重启，关注格陵兰危机 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普 发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至 25%。他表示，这一关税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。当地时间20日，欧洲议会 宣布冻结对去年7月与美国达成的贸易协议的批准程序。这被视为欧盟对美国总统特朗普最新施压举措作出的首次 回应。特朗普21日表示，不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛。2、美联储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提 起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独立性，特朗普也表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。鲍威尔计 划周三（1月21日）亲自出席最高法院针对美联储理事Cook的听证会。贝森特还称，特朗普最早下周公布新美联储 主席。从事件的角度，需要关注保证金和流动性市场带来的变量。根据芝商所1月12日发布的通知，将改变黄 ...

2026.01.22 作者 |第一财经 陈玺宇 封图 |等待进入特朗普讲话会场的观众（记者陈玺宇摄） 2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 一场演讲与一个投资决定 海菲尔提到的第一个背景，并非来自金融市场，而是政治叙事。 本文字数：1983，阅读时长大约3分钟 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会晤 后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监马 克·海菲尔（Mark Haefele）。达沃斯论坛期间，瑞银集团高层代表常常在这栋低调的小楼里，同来自全 球各地的投资人与合作伙伴进行交流。 围绕美国、格陵兰岛和其他地缘政治局势的讨论在本届达沃斯论坛期间不曾断绝。此前一天，丹麦公共 投资机构"学界养老基金"宣布，将在本月底前抛售价值1亿美元的美国国债，在会场内外引发了不小的 讨论。 在海菲尔看来，这一事件本身并不足以动摇美国国债市场，但它所折射出的，却是全球投资者正在"边 际层面"重新审视美国资产敞口的现实。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the sustained interest in AI-related sectors and the continuous rise in commodity prices, particularly precious metals like gold and silver, which have reached significant price levels [1][2] - As of January 20, 2023, the net inflow for a single colored metal ETF reached 10.861 billion yuan, leading all stock ETFs, indicating strong market interest in the sector [3] - The performance of colored metals last year was robust, with some ETFs increasing over 100%, driven by factors such as the global de-dollarization trend and the reversal of globalization, which is expected to boost demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] Group 2 - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to rise due to the large-scale expansion of AI infrastructure, which consumes significant amounts of these metals [4] - Fund managers remain optimistic about the colored metal sector, projecting a demand growth rate of approximately 2.5% to 3% driven by global re-industrialization and AI [5] - The structural market dynamics for commodities are anticipated to persist, with a focus on specific metal types that may perform better due to supply constraints and demand recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical environment has become increasingly complex, leading to a rise in precious and non-ferrous metals prices, with investors seeking alternatives like "investment copper bars" as gold prices reach new highs [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Copper Bars - "Investment copper bars" are not standard investment products and are difficult to liquidate, making them less favorable compared to standard investment options like ETFs [2][4]. - The price of copper has seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year rise of over 33%, and recent peaks reaching $13,407 per ton on the London Metal Exchange [4]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metal ETFs - Non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs have outperformed copper itself, with a growth rate exceeding 120% since last year, compared to copper's 33% increase [3][6]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to rise due to emerging sectors like AI data centers, which will support long-term price increases [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints - Recent adjustments in trading margins and limits by exchanges aim to stabilize the market amid high volatility in metal prices [7]. - The supply of non-ferrous metals is unlikely to increase rapidly due to the long lead times required for new mining projects, which can take 5-10 years to develop [7]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks, along with a re-evaluation of the dollar's credibility and potential liquidity expansion, are expected to enhance the strategic value of precious and non-ferrous metals as hedging assets [8].

高盛集团将其今年年末金价预测上调至每盎司5400美元，理由来自私人投资者和各国央行的需求正日益 增强。 以达恩·斯特鲁伊芬（Daan Struyven）为首的高盛分析师在一份报告中写道，2026年12月的目标价已从 每盎司4900美元上调，预计各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，而随着美联储降息，交易所交易基金 （ETF）的持仓量也将增加。 他们表示，各国央行"已开始通过传统的ETF购买方式，与私人领域投资者争夺有限的黄金供应"。 周三，黄金价格攀升至每盎司4800美元以上的历史新高，延续了急剧涨势。这次飙升重新引发了投资者 之间的辩论：在这辉煌的一年之后，金价还能上涨多少？ 除了高盛，其余市场预测也正变得越来越乐观。 工银标准银行高级大宗商品策略师朱莉娅·杜（Julia Du）认为，金价可能推高至7150美元。 对许多黄金多头而言，地缘政治仍是决定性的背景。MKS PAMP金属策略主管尼基·希尔斯（Nicky Shiels）表示，当前周期并不类似于投机性顶峰。她预计今年金价将达到5400美元。 她说："去年是历史性的一年，对整个贵金属市场来说有点像百年一遇的事件，白银价格基本翻了不止 一番，黄金上涨了60%， ...

Group 1 - As of the end of Q3 2025, global official gold reserves reached approximately $3.69 trillion, accounting for 28.9% of total official reserves, marking a new high since 2000 [4][27]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% in Q3 2025, the lowest level since 1995, continuing a trend of being below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters [4][27]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been increasing its gold reserves consistently, with a total increase of 1,151 million ounces (approximately 358 tons) since November 2022 [3][11]. Group 2 - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has been ongoing for 15 years, with a notable increase in purchases from emerging market central banks, which accounted for over 45% of net gold purchases in 2023 [5][23]. - In 2022, global central banks purchased a total of 1,081.9 tons of gold, with purchases remaining above 1,000 tons annually through 2024 [18][20]. - The World Gold Council's report indicates that the demand for gold from central banks has significantly increased since 2022, driven by geopolitical tensions and a shift in reserve asset preferences [23][24]. Group 3 - The PBOC's gold reserve stood at 7,415 million ounces (approximately 2,306.32 tons) by the end of December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 86 million ounces (approximately 26.75 tons) [8][11]. - The PBOC's strategy of increasing gold reserves is part of a broader trend among central banks to diversify their reserve assets, with gold being viewed as a stable and secure investment [12][15]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that over 90% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026, with a significant portion anticipating a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [35][36].

Group 1 - The international gold market continues to rise, with spot gold prices historically breaking through the $4800 per ounce mark, reaching a new market high [1] - As of January 21, the daily increase in spot gold exceeded 1.62%, and the cumulative increase since the beginning of 2026 surpassed 10%, significantly impacting domestic gold investment and consumption markets [1] - The prices of both investment gold and brand gold jewelry have risen in tandem, affecting ordinary consumers [1] Group 2 - The price of gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1500 yuan, currently reported at 1506 yuan per gram, with notable increases from January 20 [2] - Specific brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Zhou Sheng Sheng, and Lao Miao have reported price increases of 42 yuan, 41 yuan, and 38 yuan per gram respectively since January 20 [2][5][7] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising market risk aversion and long-term structural support factors, with short-term triggers linked to geopolitical events such as those in Greenland [9] - The current price increase aligns with macroeconomic narratives including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global "de-dollarization" trends, and continued accumulation by multiple central banks [9] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the core logic supporting gold prices remains solid, highlighting its strategic value as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [10]

新高之后，黄金何去何从 - 联合解读会议 20260121 摘要 最近一段时间，地缘政治因素叠加，使得贵金属黄金价格不断上行，创出新高。 从宏观角度来看，黄金一直是我们持续关注并提示机会的资产。我们在过去几 年发布了一系列报告，从不同角度探讨黄金的供需关系和上涨机会。例如， 2020 年的《全球大放水会如何收场》、2021 年的《无用方为大用》、2023 年的《去美元化的黄金机遇》以及 2024 年和 2025 年的相关报告。这些报告 构成了我们持续推荐黄金的重要依据。 近年来，我们发现传统衡量黄金价值的 方法，如避险属性、美联储放水等，在长期解释力上有所不足。因此，我们回 归到供需基本面进行分析。在供给相对稳定的情况下，需求方面出现了显著增 量。居民通过 ETF 购买黄金，以及各国央行持续购金，是推动金价上涨的重要 因素。特别是在地缘政治波动加剧的背景下，具有避险属性的资产如黄金，其 需求进一步增加。 黄金市场未来趋势如何？ 从长期来看，黄金市场仍然具有很高的确定性。中国外汇储备中黄金占比已从 之前的一点几上升至接近 6%，但与全球平均水平 15%以上相比仍有较大差距， 这意味着央行购金需求尚未结束。在当前 ...