Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on gold prices and market expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - The ADP employment data has sparked expectations for rate cuts, which directly catalyzed the rise in gold prices [1] - The non-farm payroll report is considered a key indicator for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, with economists predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, and an expected slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs analysts predict a more pessimistic scenario with only 85,000 new jobs added, alongside a reduction of 15,000 federal government positions, indicating potential pressures on the job market due to immigration policies and tariffs [2] - The importance of the non-farm payroll report extends beyond the data itself, as it provides guidance on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with any unexpected labor market performance likely to trigger significant market volatility [2] - If the labor market continues to show weakness, investor confidence in rate cuts will strengthen, potentially supporting gold prices; conversely, strong data may lead the Fed to slow down rate cuts, exerting downward pressure on gold [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a daily low of 3,327 and a high of 3,360, closing at 3,356, suggesting a potential upward trend with a focus on the 3,400 level [3] - The current price is below 3,350, with key support levels identified at 3,330 and 3,300, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming non-farm data for market direction [3]

日本央行审议委员高田创：随着降息可能性的减弱，美联储的货币政策操作在今夏仍值得关注。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed is expected to turn dovish in the July FOMC meeting, confirm the pace of rate cuts in the second half of the year, and cut rates by 25 basis points in the September FOMC meeting. In the context of the Fed's looser monetary policy expectations, focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.26% to 779.66 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.71% to 8845.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.07% to 3362.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 36.77 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.3%, and the US dollar index was 96.74 [2] - **Other Market Indicators**: Au(T + D) fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.77% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. The London Gold price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and the London Silver price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.06% to 947.66 tons, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 0.29% to 14869.01 tons [4] Market Outlook - The weak US ADP employment data released yesterday strengthened market expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, which is a positive factor for precious metal prices. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Powell emphasized the Fed's data - dependence in decision - making, and the ADP data reflected the weakening of the US labor market. The focus is on the US non - farm payrolls change in June to be released tonight, with the market expecting an increase of 110,000, lower than the previous 139,000. If the non - farm data is lower than expected again, market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will further increase [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.56% to 3368.70 dollars/ounce, but trading volume fell 21.25% to 129,500 lots, and open interest fell 1.42% to 435,000 lots. LBMA Gold's closing price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and inventory remained unchanged at 1152 tons. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.01% to 776.04 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 8.70% to 303,900 lots, open interest fell 0.83% to 410,400 lots, and inventory rose 0.02% to 18.46 tons. Au(T + D) closing price fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, trading volume fell 23.89% to 29.77 tons, and open interest rose 3.54% to 225.29 tons [6] - **Silver**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.50% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, open interest fell 5.53% to 174,600 lots, and inventory fell 0.20% to 15,557 tons. LBMA Silver's closing price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.72% to 8,747.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume fell 4.76% to 627,700 lots, open interest fell 2.21% to 841,400 lots, and inventory fell 0.01% to 1,338.66 tons. Ag(T + D) closing price fell 0.77% to 8,737.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 26.04% to 521.32 tons, and open interest rose 0.35% to 3,142.008 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was - 4.41 yuan/gram (- 19.14 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was - 4.65 yuan/gram (- 20.18 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50] - **Silver**: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was 302.10 yuan/kilogram (1.31 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was 321.91 yuan/kilogram (1.40 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50]

根据美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）2日盘前发布的就业报告显示，2025年6月美国私人部门就业人数首 次出现下降，减少了33,000人，远低于预期的增加10万人。这一数据表明美国劳动力市场可能正在放 缓，引发市场关注，并可能影响美联储的货币政策决议。 CFRA Research的首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔表示，如果6月份官方就业数据也未能如预期增长，美 联储可能会考虑在7月会议上进一步降息。此外，股市在报告发布后出现压力，投资者情绪更显谨慎。 受市场对美国就业市场恶化担忧和美国宣布与越南达成贸易协议影响，纽约股市三大股指2日低开，早 盘震荡，随后走势出现分化，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌互现。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌10.52点，收于44484.42点，跌幅为0.02%；标准 普尔500种股票指数上涨29.41点，收于6227.42点，涨幅为0.47%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨190.24点，收 于20393.13点，涨幅为0.94%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块七涨四跌。能源板块和材料板块分别以1.70%和1.33%涨幅领涨，医 疗板块和公用事业板块分别以0.97%和0.87%跌 ...

Group 1 - The trade relationship between the US and Canada shows signs of easing, but this positive development has not had the expected uplifting effect on the Canadian dollar exchange rate, which is currently fluctuating around 1.3650 against the US dollar [1][2] - The Canadian government has announced the cancellation of the digital services tax, which paves the way for the resumption of trade negotiations between the two countries. This decision ends a heated dispute over the tax, which was set to impose a 3% tax on revenues from digital services provided to Canadian users by tech companies [2] - The US government strongly opposed the digital services tax, arguing that it primarily affects large American tech companies such as Amazon and Google, and previously threatened to halt all trade negotiations with Canada [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis of the USD/CAD exchange rate indicates significant resistance, with the price facing selling pressure each time it approaches the 20-day exponential moving average. The relative strength index is hovering around 40, and a drop below this level would signal further bearish sentiment [3] - The key support level is at the June 16 low of 1.3540, and if this level is breached, it could open up a decline towards the psychological level of 1.3500 [3] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is a central focus for the market, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the July meeting, while a 25 basis point rate cut in September has been fully priced in [3]

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report serves as a "thermometer" for economic health and a "compass" for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, significantly impacting global financial markets and the Fed's decisions [1] - Strong non-farm data indicates a tight labor market, potentially increasing wage growth and inflation pressure, leading the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to prevent economic overheating [1] - Conversely, weak data suggests a slowdown in job growth, prompting the Fed to maintain accommodative policies to stimulate the economy, making non-farm data a key indicator for observing Fed policy trends [1] Group 2 - Investors using the Lingsheng Precious Metals platform can capture trading opportunities around non-farm data releases through real-time market data and a fast transaction system [2] - The platform supports a T+0 trading model, allowing investors to quickly close positions for profit after data releases, with continuous market analysis to aid rational decision-making [2] - The timing of non-farm report releases often creates short-term market volatility, providing profit opportunities for gold traders, with Lingsheng's stable trading environment facilitating precise investment opportunities [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 参议院通过大而美法案 金价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案（大而美法案），并提交众议院。此外，7月9日的贸易 关税暂停最后期限越来越近，而总统特朗普表示，不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期。美联储方面，无法断言7 月降息是否为时过早，不排除任何一次会议上采取行动的可能性。经济数据方面，美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升 至去年11月以来最高，交易员略微削减美联储降息预期。昨日黄金价格继续呈现震荡走高格局。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-01，沪金主力合约开于 766.18元/克，收于 776.10元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.11%。当日成交量为 171739手，持仓量为 167465手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 780.80 元/克，收于 777.10 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.84%。 2025-07-01，沪银主力合约开于 8737元/千克，收于 8810元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 342536手，持仓量 264724手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,802 元/千克， ...

KVB App发现在全球货币政策走向备受瞩目的关键时刻，美联储主席鲍威尔于周二在葡萄牙举行的欧 洲央行会议上，再次明确传递出谨慎的货币政策信号。这场汇聚欧美亚各国央行领导人的重要会议上， 鲍威尔强调，鉴于当前美国经济活动保持稳定，美联储将采取 "等待观察" 策略，着重评估关税上调对 物价水平和经济增长的潜在影响，之后才会决定是否重启降息举措，这番表态引发全球金融市场高度关 注。 "我们只是需要一些时间，" 鲍威尔在会议上直言，"只要美国经济状况良好，我们认为谨慎的做法是等 待并进一步了解这些影响可能是什么。" 这番言论清晰表明，美联储在关税政策与货币政策的权衡中， 倾向于以更审慎的态度收集数据、评估形势。近期，投资者对美联储下半年至少两次降息的预期不断升 温，主要源于 4 月和 5 月公布的通胀数据比部分经济学家预期更为温和。但鲍威尔在会议上拒绝就月底 美联储会议作出任何预测，坚定表示经济前景才是最终决策的决定性因素。他进一步指出，无法断言 7 月降息是否为时过早，"我不会排除任何一次会议 (降息的可能性)，也不会直接确定某次会议会采取行 动"，这种模棱两可的表述，既给市场留下想象空间，也展现出美联储决策层在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the rise in gold prices was due to multiple factors. The dollar index dropped to its lowest since February 2022, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict increased market risk - aversion. However, the upcoming release of US June non - farm payroll data on Thursday could potentially suppress gold prices. So, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed higher. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, as the tariff war is nearing its end [7][8]. - For gold in the long - term, the overall direction is still bullish, though it is currently undergoing adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year [12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are back in a state of inventory accumulation. Technically, it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15][16]. - For glass, it still awaits the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it should be considered as oscillating with a downward bias [20][21]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectations of US biofuel policies and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering the mid - term seasonal increase in production and inventory, when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, short positions with a light position are recommended [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market environment factors such as the drop in the dollar index and the decline in the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with geopolitical tensions, led to the rise in gold prices on July 1, 2025. But the upcoming US non - farm payroll data may affect gold prices. It is advisable to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - In the long - term, the overall trend of gold is bullish. Although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12]. 3.2 A - shares - The A - share market had a trend of opening lower and closing higher. With the tariff war approaching its end, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise [7][8]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Technically, it is showing a downward - biased oscillation [15][16]. 3.4 Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it is in a downward - biased oscillation [20][21]. 3.5 Soybean Oil - Due to long - term US biofuel policy expectations and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering mid - term seasonal production and inventory increases, short positions with a light position are recommended when the price reaches 8050 - 8000 [24].

鲍威尔还表示，当前美国经济基本面稳健，为美联储采取观望策略提供了空间。这表明美联储并不急于 采取激进的宽松或紧缩措施。鲍威尔称，美联储预计在夏季期间通胀水平可能会有所上升，但整体上仍 处于可预见范围内。他重申，通胀正朝着美联储目标方向前进，但尚未完全达成。（新华财经） 美联储主席鲍威尔7月1日表示，鉴于当前关税带来的不确定性及其对价格的潜在影响，美联储决定暂停 加息行动，以便更准确评估其对通胀和整体经济的影响。鲍威尔说，在美国经济保持强劲的背景下，美 联储倾向于采取谨慎态度，选择观望并等待更多信息以评估通胀和经济走势。 ...